Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations. In the short term, the aluminum price is under pressure due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season, but it may turn stronger after a weak start in August. There is a possibility of the price breaking through the 21,000 mark with the support of potential positive factors in late August [5][12]. - For the medium - term, one can consider mid - line long - position layout below 20,000 yuan [5]. - In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Although the price is expected to be relatively strong, a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory [8][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of the aluminum price. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season, the price is under pressure in the short term. However, as August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, combined with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may turn stronger after a weak start in August [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider mid - line long - position layout below 20,000 yuan [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price in August may be weak first and then strong. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price in late August is still expected to be strong, but a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [9]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The domestic bauxite market is not in surplus. The bauxite price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, while that in the south - western region may rise. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply in August may tighten, but due to the significant increase in previous imports and high port inventories, as well as the resumption of production of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage of bauxite may be limited, and the price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 95.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.73% (85.58% last week), reaching the highest level since 2022 [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.45 million tons, the operating capacity is about 44.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 97%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum supply shows a dual - track pattern of "stable domestic growth + overseas supplement". Domestically, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the electrolytic aluminum output in countries such as Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by more than 30% year - on - year [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,400 yuan/ton. Since June, the export volume of aluminum products has declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Considering the suspension of Sino - US tariff confrontation, the export resilience will remain in the second half of the year, but the growth rate is expected to slow down compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. The operating rate and order volume of construction profiles are low, the off - season atmosphere in the automotive profile industry remains, the new orders for photovoltaic profiles are insufficient, and the processing fees are too low, resulting in low order - taking willingness of enterprises. The orders of photovoltaic frame enterprises are relatively saturated. In the short term, it is expected to operate stably [11]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 64.0% this week. The industry generally has low expectations for the consumption boost from terminal peak - season stocking in August, and the inertia of enterprise production cuts is difficult to change. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 68.4%. The orders for air - conditioning foils have decreased by 5 - 10% year - on - year due to the large - scale summer equipment maintenance plan of air - conditioning terminals. With the mixed news of the cancellation of purchase tax incentives for new energy vehicles in 2026, the aluminum foil industry is expected to further shrink, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend [11]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises remained stable at 61.8%. Although the industry is showing signs of emerging from the off - season, the characteristics of the traditional peak season have not fully emerged. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 55.6%, continuing the recovery trend since July. However, under the triple pressures of the unresolved Sino - US tariff issue, high aluminum prices, and negative feedback, the weak and stable pattern of the industry is difficult to break. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.1%. The terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and the off - season atmosphere dominates the market. In the short term, the operating rate of sample enterprises is expected to remain stable, but the industry as a whole will continue to decline [11]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 566,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 32% from the same period last year. Since June, the outbound volume of aluminum ingots has continued to decline and is at a low level in the past two years, but it has stabilized since August. The inventory may decrease in late August due to the potential early arrival of the traditional peak season. The inventory of aluminum rods is 138,200 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and an increase of about 17% from the same period last year. In the short term, the off - season theme of downstream industries remains unchanged. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July after a continuous slight decline since May 2024. Considering the overseas resumption of production and the decline of manufacturing data in Europe and the United States, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,000 yuan/ton (2,800 yuan/ton last week), at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: Before entering the consumption peak season, downstream enterprises mainly make rigid purchases. Without significant positive news, the spot is expected to trade at a discount, and the futures price will fluctuate at a high level. In late August, attention should be paid to potential positive factors such as policies (steady - growth plans), the peak season ("Golden September and Silver October"), and the Fed's interest rate cuts, with the possibility of breaking through the 21,000 mark [12]. - **Personal View**: The price is still expected to be strong, but a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan [12]. - **Key Concerns**: The progress of domestic steady - growth policies and whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arrives early [12]. - **Direction**: Large - range oscillations [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The bauxite price is rising slightly and is expected to oscillate in the range of 70 - 75 US dollars/ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and the domestic supply is expected to tighten marginally before September, but there may be fluctuations in the short term. The alumina price rose and then fell again this week. With the increase in operating capacity, the alumina market is in surplus, and the previous speculation based on anti - involution has subsided [13]. - The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly after reaching a high point. The holders of goods are trying to support the price, but the supply is loosening. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid purchases, and the market is mainly focused on selling rather than replenishing at high prices. The recycled aluminum market still faces the problem of tight scrap aluminum supply, with obvious cost support, but the weak consumption and high social inventory restrict the price increase space. Attention should be paid to whether the demand expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is fulfilled in mid - to late August [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging. In the second half of the year, the domestic alumina market is in overall surplus, but there are regional structural shortages, and the inventory accumulation pressure is greater than the reduction pressure [17]. - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas is 566,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 32% from the same period last year, mainly due to the off - season demand and high prices, which have slowed down the outbound rhythm. However, the inventory is still at a relatively low level compared with the historical average and is difficult to change in the short term. The inventory of aluminum rods is 138,200 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and an increase of about 17% from the same period last year. In the short term, the off - season theme of downstream industries remains unchanged [17]. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory continued to accumulate, mainly due to weak overseas demand. In addition, since June 20, the LME has implemented a new position limit rule for near - month contracts, which may have forced some hidden inventories to become visible [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. The production arrangement of primary aluminum alloy enterprises is still cautious under the weak and stable pattern. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased slightly, but the operating rate in August may remain at a low level. The operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable and is expected to rise slightly in mid - August. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly, with obvious off - season characteristics. The operating rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly, and that of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable [22]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is relatively neutral but weaker than last month. The market has low expectations for the price increase in the second half of the year but is more optimistic about the first half of 2026 [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,560 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,480 yuan/ton last week [34]. - The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of overseas funds decreased slightly. After 11 consecutive weeks of net long - position increase, both the long and short sides increased their positions slightly, indicating increasing market divergence. The market is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the near future [37]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main force increased slightly and steadily this week, with both the long and short sides increasing their positions slightly. The net long position of funds mainly from financial speculation has been decreasing since August, while the funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises have been continuously reducing their net short positions since mid - July and are now in a balanced state. Based on the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [40].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report - Report Period: August 11 - 15, 2025 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning. Last week, the gold price showed a volatile and upward - biased trend due to multiple factors. In the short - term, it is range - bound, affected by the US dollar index and geopolitical risks. If the Fed starts a rate - cut cycle in September, the gold price is expected to rise further. Geopolitical risks can also push up the price. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a steady upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the silver price trended upward in a volatile manner. In the long - term, it benefits from global loose monetary policies and the de - dollarization trend, but the weak industrial demand during the rate - cut cycle may suppress the price. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver has the potential for a supplementary increase. It is also recommended to wait and see [31]. 3. Summary by Section Gold Futures 3.1. Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is sideways, possibly at the start. Last week, the price was driven by weak non - farm payrolls strengthening rate - cut expectations, a falling US dollar, geopolitical risks, and increased capital positions, showing a volatile and upward - biased trend. Short - term is range - bound, affected by the US dollar index and geopolitical risks. If the Fed cuts rates in September, the price may rise further, and geopolitical risks can push it up [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in a volatile operation, and grid trading was recommended in the 735 - 838 range [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold main contract 2510 is still expected to be mainly in a volatile operation, and grid trading is recommended in the 735 - 838 range [12]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [19][21][23]. Silver Futures 3.1. Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the price trended upward in a volatile manner. In the long - term, it benefits from global loose monetary policies and de - dollarization, but weak industrial demand during the rate - cut cycle may suppress the price. The gold - silver ratio has room for repair, and silver has the potential for a supplementary increase [31]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500 [35]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2510 is still expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500 [36]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [41][43][45].

2025.08.04-08.08 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈现震荡偏强走势，先跌后涨。主要驱动因素包括：美元 指数上涨施压金价，但实际收益率下降和地缘政治风险（巴以冲突升级 担忧）提供支撑，推动反弹。美联储政策预期受经济数据疲软（如耐用 品订单下滑）影响，鹰派立场承压但通胀担忧利好。全球央行购金行为 和中长期避险需求增强支撑。成交量和持仓量在8月1日上升，显示市场 活跃度提高。整体受美元、美债、地缘及政策多因素博弈主导。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行，建议：750－800区间进行网格 交易。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510预期震荡运行为主，建议：735－838区间进行 网格交易。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 本报告数据来源为Wind、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures are both in an oscillating phase. For soda ash, although there was policy support last week, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. For glass, the price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support [6][30]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. The short - term may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation, start - up adjustment, and inventory changes [6]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the domestic soda ash market first rose and then declined. Policy and device maintenance supported the price increase at the beginning of the week, but weak downstream demand and increased supply later led to a weakening of the futures [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The futures were in high - level oscillation, affected by the contradiction between policy expectations and fundamentals. The expected operating range of SA2509 was 1250 - 1450, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The domestic soda ash market was still stable with a slight upward trend. The expected operating range of SA2509 is 1200 - 1350, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly), etc. The multi - empty flow is - 39.7, indicating the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is 7.2 + 2, remaining basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.6, with a high risk of market reversal [11][15][22]. Glass Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Glass is in an oscillating trend. The short - term may have narrow - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy trends [30]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend. The price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support and low downstream acceptance of high prices [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. The futures first fell and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 1200 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend, but the upward momentum weakened. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and profit margin of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存. The multi - empty flow is - 53.5, indicating the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 68.7 * + +, with a large inflow of funds; the multi - empty divergence is 96.4, with a high risk of market reversal [36][42][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Bean Meal Futures**: The main contract of bean meal futures is in a wide - range oscillation phase. With ample domestic soybean supply, high oil - mill operation rates, but limited terminal demand, and international factors like strong US soybean harvest expectations and export pressure, along with uncertainties in Sino - US trade policies and rising Brazilian soybean premiums, the bean meal futures are expected to continue the wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Soybean Oil Futures**: The main contract of soybean oil futures is also in a wide - range oscillation. High soybean arrivals support high oil - mill operation rates, and although the inventory has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level with slow terminal consumption recovery. International factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff policies, and biodiesel policy expectations affect the price. It is advised to wait and see [30]. 3. Summary by Directory Bean Meal Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The main bean meal contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 30th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2389 million tons, with an operation rate of 62.94%. The bean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, an increase of 44,700 tons or 4.48% from the previous week. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, but terminal demand is limited. Internationally, US soybean prices are under pressure, while Sino - US trade uncertainties and rising Brazilian soybean premiums support domestic bean meal costs [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices was sideways, with slightly more long - side funds. The M2509 contract was expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of bean meal futures prices is sideways, with more short - side funds. The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 3150 in the short term [10]. - **Related Data** - The report provides data on bean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [19][21][25]. Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 30th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 425,400 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0881 million tons, a decrease of 3700 tons from the previous week. High soybean arrivals support high oil - mill operation rates, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation continues. International factors affect the price [30]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with strongly short - side funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to oscillate widely in the range of 7950 - 8280 in the short term [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in an upward channel, with strongly long - side funds. The Y2509 contract is expected to run strongly in the range of 8000 - 8400 in the short term [33]. - **Related Data** - The report provides data on soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [44][46][50][54][57].

2025.08.04-08.08 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约进入震荡整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量213万吨，表观消费量218万吨，主要钢厂库存166万 吨，社会库存576万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中，资金面略偏空方。 2 观望等待整理阶段完成。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入红色量能阶梯区域第五周。 n 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入震荡整理阶段，耐心等待新一轮中线趋势。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 耐心等待整理阶段完成。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a wide - range oscillation. The 2509 contract is expected to trade between 7,800 and 10,000 yuan. [6][7] - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a wide - range oscillation. The 2509 contract is expected to trade between 63,000 and 80,000 yuan. [31][32] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are in a wide - range oscillation. Last week, spot prices showed mixed movements. As of August 1, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 10,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 10,100 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - or short - bias among the main players. The 2509 contract is expected to trade between 7,800 and 10,000 yuan. [6][7] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - Last week's strategy: Consider buying in small quantities on dips during the stabilization and recovery of industrial silicon prices. [10] - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. [11] 3.3 Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. [17] Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are in a wide - range oscillation. Last week, spot prices declined. As of August 1, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade was 68,300 yuan/ton. The AI variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price is in an upward channel, and the main players show a strong bullish sentiment. The 2509 contract is expected to trade between 63,000 and 80,000 yuan. [31][32] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - Last week's strategy: Consider buying in small quantities on dips during the stabilization and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. [35] - This week's strategy: Consider buying in small quantities when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range. [36] 3.3 Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. [39] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with prices likely to be weak first and then strong in August. The price of aluminum ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if certain conditions are met. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by the capacity ceiling, and the demand in the downstream industry is in a mixed situation. The market is in a state of intense long - short game in the short - term, but the supply - demand situation in August is relatively optimistic [5][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of aluminum prices. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season as negative factors, the short - term price is under pressure. However, August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may be weak first and then strong. It is advisable to consider mid - line long positions below 2000 yuan [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price was expected to enter a wide - range oscillation stage, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract seen in the range of 20200 - 20900, and it was recommended to wait and see [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price may be weak first and then strong in August. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is appropriate for now [9]. - **Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging**: Spot enterprises can consider appropriately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [10]. 3.3 Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: In the short - term, the supply of domestic aluminum ore is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported ore at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short - term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if the shipment from Guinea remains low and domestic inventory continues to decline [11]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There are new capacity projects in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the anti - involution situation [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the repair of smelting profits, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed. The current capacity utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum has exceeded 95%, and new capacity is limited due to the capacity ceiling [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, the overall performance is resilient [11]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased slightly. Different sectors have different situations. For example, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles and aluminum foil is expected to remain low, while the start - up rate of aluminum cables may recover in August [13]. - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July [13]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3200 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Expectation**: The proportion of alumina production lines over 10 years old is about 45%. There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the anti - involution background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, there is no clear policy on alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the supply side has no obvious constraints for now. The short - term long - short game is intense [14]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industry links have changed slightly. For example, the price of alumina has risen and then fallen, the price of coal has continued to rise steadily, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has risen and then fallen, hitting resistance at the 21,000 level [15][16]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore at ports has increased, the inventory of alumina has increased slightly, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase [18][20]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The cash cost of the alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3200 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1700 yuan/ton [22]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% compared with last week, and is 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Different sectors have different trends, and the overall start - up rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [26][27]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [31]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1430 yuan/ton this week, wider than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has reduced positions overall, and the long side has increased positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of financial speculative funds has increased first and then decreased, remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [44].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: July 28 - August 1, 2025 [1] - Reported futures varieties: Rebar and iron ore [2] Group 2: Rebar Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures has entered the fifth week of the red energy ladder area. [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly output is 2.11 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.16 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.65 million tons, and social inventory is 5.7 million tons. The daily - level price is in an upward channel. [7] - Mid - term strategy: Steel spot enterprises can consider a 30% long - hedging plan. [7] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures was in the fourth week of the red energy ladder area. [10] - This week's strategy: The main contract of rebar futures is in the fifth week of the red energy ladder area. [11] - Spot enterprise hedging advice: Steel spot enterprises can consider implementing a 30% long - hedging strategy step - by - step. [12] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures has entered the fourth week of the mid - term red energy stage area. [32] - Trend judgment logic: Global shipping volume last week was 31.09 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 23.71 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 88.85 million tons, and domestic major ports' inventory was 137.9 million tons. [32] - Mid - term strategy: Spot enterprises can consider implementing a 30% long - hedging strategy step - by - step. [32] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of iron ore futures entered the third week of the mid - term red energy stage area. [35] - This week's strategy: Spot enterprises can consider implementing a 30% long - hedging strategy step - by - step. [35] Group 4: Data Source - The data in this report is from Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures. [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures are in a wide - range oscillation phase. For soybean meal, factors like high - level oil mill crushing, limited terminal feed demand, and uncertainties in US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US trade relations contribute to this situation. For soybean oil, high oil mill operating rates, low market transactions, and supportive policies from palm oil - producing regions and the US biofuel policy lead to the wide - range oscillation [7][28]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soybean meal and soybean oil futures [7][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 29th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons with an operating rate of 64.81%, and the soybean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a 12.66% increase from the previous week. The high - level crushing leads to inventory accumulation, and the terminal feed demand increment is limited. However, uncertainties in US soybean产区 weather, Sino - US trade relations, and strong Brazilian discounts support the cost of soybean meal. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in an upward channel, with a strong long - bias in funds. The M2509 contract was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, operating in the range of 2920 - 3150 [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in a sideways stage, with a slight long - bias in funds. The M2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, operating in the range of 2920 - 3150 [11]. - **Variety Diagnosis**: The main force is slightly long - biased, the capital energy is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is high [14]. - **Related Data**: The report provides data on soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][22]. Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 29th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 43,800 tons, an increase of 190 tons from the previous week, and the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.0918 million tons, a 42,400 - ton increase from the previous week. High oil mill operating rates lead to increased output and inventory, while market transactions are light. However, the warming macro - sentiment and policies from palm oil - producing regions and the US biofuel policy support the market. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a long - bias in funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to maintain a relatively strong operation in the short - term, operating in the range of 7950 - 8300 [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways stage, with a strong short - bias in funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, operating in the range of 7950 - 8280 [31]. - **Variety Diagnosis**: The main force is strongly short - biased, the main capital is flowing out slightly, and the risk of a market reversal is relatively high [35]. - **Related Data**: The report provides data on soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][42][46].