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工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20250603
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 12:20
2025.06.03-06.06 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 2 截至5月29日新疆地区421#价格8900元/吨,云南地区421#价格10100元/吨, 四川地区421#价格10250元/吨。期货盘5月30日工业硅2507收盘价7160元, 现货市场价格也无止跌意向,临近丰水期,部分有小水电的厂家计划进入 复产阶段,大厂复产已落实,预计6月供应会超预期。长城期货AI智能投 询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处于下行通道中。 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在,库存压力大,产量预期增多,建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 维持偏弱走势,建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势,建议观望。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日,上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨,较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析,当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 ...
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250603
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:15
2025.06.03-06.06 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中,当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 黄金期货 趋势判断逻辑 近期,黄金市场受到美国国际贸易法院裁决的影响,加之市场对贸易政 策的不确定性,以及美联储公布的会议纪要揭示了经济前景的高不确定 性,失业率和通胀风险的上升,导致市场避险情绪有所增强。从长远来 看,地缘政治风险的不确定性、全球主要央行转向宽松政策的趋势,以 及去美元化趋势的加速,持续推动央行增加黄金购买需求。这些多重因 素将继续为金价提供支撑。 2 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金逢低配置黄金看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508下方支撑:768 -772,上方压力810-814。 n 本周策略建议 预期黄金主力合约2508短期震荡反复,建议观望。下方支撑: 738-746,上方压力800-808。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mystee ...
纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250603
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:14
2025.06.03-06.06 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱价格延续弱势运行。供应方面,整体的开工率呈现小幅上 升,主要原因是前期检修陆续复产,整体供应量维持在较高水平; 需求方面依然偏弱,下游多以低价刚需补货为主,市场观望情绪浓 厚;部分企业为刺激出货采取灵活定价策略。库存方面,受到节前 备货影响,库存存在小幅下降,但整体库存仍然处于高位。近期出 口情绪有所改善,部分企业接单量增加,但整体出口波动不大。 综上所述,纯碱整体供强需弱的格局预计将延续,价格走势预计呈 现震荡运行。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱行业部分企业进入检修,部分前期检修装置恢复, 需求端持续疲软,下游采购以刚性需求为主,供需格局未明 显改善。库存虽小幅下降但整体仍处高位。预计纯碱期货价 格维持震荡偏弱走势。预期纯碱2509运行区间1250-1400,可 考虑空仓观望。 n 本周策略建议 上周纯碱价格弱势运 ...
螺纹钢、铁矿石期货品种周报-20250603
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:09
2025.06.03-06.06 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析,螺纹钢期货主 力合约本周预计运行区间为3000至2900,建议关注3000一线的压 力位置。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量228万吨,表观消费量245万吨,主要钢厂库存183万 吨,社会库存638万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中,资金流出幅度较大。 2 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略,参考运行区间为 3000至2900,可留意3000一线的压力位置。 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施80%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、My ...
电解铝期货品种周报-20250603
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:55
电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间整理。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2025.6.3-6.6 美联储下半年降息或推迟至7月和12月,加上国际局势仍旧较为紧张,制约铝 价上行空间,但国内1、5年期LPR年内首降,流动性宽松信号明显,则对铝价 形成一定的支撑。供需方面,年内国内外电解铝增量空间有限且几内亚雨季 及采矿许可带来的实质性供应减量可能体现在6、7月矿石国内到货,加上近 期国内外显性库存持续去库至历史偏低水平,供需整体仍偏强,但关税扰动 仍较大,预计近期市场以震荡为主. 2 维持20000一线附近整理观点,19500-20500区间短线交易为宜。 3 中线策略建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年5月第5周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 短期国产矿石供应局面将不会有过多变化,供应仍将相对偏紧。几内亚雨季影响近期已逐步显现,后 | | | 续除受影响暂停开采的企业,在采矿企供应水平也将有一定程度减少,预计6月起,几内亚方面铝土矿 | | | 发运量或将有明显下降。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截至5月29日,全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11082万吨/年,运行总产能8667万吨 ...
豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250603
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:49
2025.06.03-06.06 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。短期内 M2509预计宽幅震荡整理,运行区间:2850-3000,可考虑区 间操作。 中线趋势来看,豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据:第21周油厂大豆实际压榨量量220.93万吨,开机率为 62.1%;大豆库存560.63万吨,较上周减少26.20万吨,减幅4.46%;豆粕 库存20.69万吨,较上周增加8.52万吨,增幅70.01%。进口大豆集中到港, 油厂开机率快速攀升,压榨量维持高位,豆粕库存累积速度加快。终端 饲料企业多执行前期基差合同,随用随采的谨慎策略抑制现货成交。巴 西大豆出口销售压力缓解带动贴水企稳,叠加美豆生长季潜在的天气变 化及全球贸易的不确定性。综合来看豆粕期价处于宽幅震荡整理阶段。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏空 ...
纯碱、玻璃期货品种周报-20250526
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 05:13
2025.05.26-05.30 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱行业装置负荷有所下降,部分企业如青海、山东等地的碱 厂进入检修状态。然而也有部分前期检修装置恢复运行,行业开工 率维持在80%左右;需求端表现持续疲软,下游企业采购仍以刚性 需求为主,尚未出现集中备货现象,整体供需格局未见明显改善。 从库存变化趋势来看,近期库存虽有小幅下降,但整体仍处于高位; 纯碱期货价格仍将维持震荡偏弱的走势。尽管部分企业检修带来短 期供给收缩,但整体供应过剩的局面仍未改变,需等待新一轮驱动。 综上所述,纯碱走势预计呈现震荡运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 本周企业检修致供应下降,企业待发支撑下现货价格稳定。 纯碱需求淡稳,下游补库,采购可按需进行,消费及开工稳 健,出口情绪提升、部分企业接单量增。本周浮法拟新增一 条 500 吨产线点火、光伏保持稳定。预期纯碱2509运行区间 1250-1400,可考 ...
电解铝期货品种周报-20250526
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 03:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with a relatively strong oscillation trend from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export continue to support the aluminum price, but the off - season characteristics of terminal operating rates are obvious, and the hype about the Guinea mining rights theme has cooled down. The resistance above 20,500 is still significant, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [5][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum market is in a large - range oscillation, and it should be treated as a relatively strong oscillation from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export support the aluminum price, but the resistance above 20,500 is large, and it is recommended to hold a moderate amount of long positions [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was believed that the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract would continue to consolidate around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - **Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging**: Spot enterprises can consider making appropriate purchases at low prices [9]. Overall View Supply Side - **Bauxite Market**: The supply of domestic ore is expected to change little in the short term and remains tight. Although the import volume of bauxite reached a record high in April, some suppliers declared force majeure, which may affect imports after June [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 22, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.35 million tons and an operating rate of 76.96%. The supply change is limited, and the spot is still in short supply. The profit margin has recovered, and enterprises' production willingness has increased. The price of domestic alumina futures is expected to be between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton next week [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of May 22, the theoretical operating capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry was 43.865 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the room for further production increase this year is limited [10]. Demand Side - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 56% this week, with significant regional differentiation in the building materials sector. The operating rate is expected to decline slightly in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.6%. The export of terminal aluminum products has recovered, but it is still difficult to offset the seasonal decline in domestic consumption. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 70.6%, and the industry is in the traditional off - season. The operating rate is expected to decline [11]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 64.8%, and it is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%, and it is expected to remain stable but weak. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 54.6%, and the terminal demand is weak. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline [11]. Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 556,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from the previous week and about 28% lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level since 2017. The social inventory of aluminum rods is 127,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous week and about 35% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at the lowest level since 1990 [11]. Profit - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, up from about 450 yuan/ton last week [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton, down from 2,900 yuan/ton last week [12]. Market Expectation - There are no significant positive or negative factors in the macro - level next week. The supply side is stable, and the "rush - to - export" will continue to support demand. However, if the alumina price drops from a high level, the Shanghai Aluminum price may fall below 20,000. It is difficult to break through the upper limit of the 20,300 range [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly due to the willingness of mainstream mines to support prices. The coal market is weak, and the alumina price rose first and then fell, experiencing profit - taking [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, and the alumina inventory has decreased slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continues to decline [15][16]. Supply - Demand Situation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,620 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% this week, and it is expected to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is still neutral and relatively strong. The low inventory and the possible rush - to - export in China support the spot price against the futures price [29]. - Based on the past 10 - year statistical data, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. Shanghai Aluminum is currently running close to the high - price range of the past 10 years, and it may continue to oscillate in the next week, with possible adjustments after the Dragon Boat Festival [34]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $6.6/ton, and the A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,490 yuan/ton, and the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, which supports the electrolytic aluminum price [36][41][42]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise in the recent three weeks, and the short - term market may continue to rebound slightly. The net long position of the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety has turned to a slight net short position this week, and the short - term may still have a slight adjustment [44][47].
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20250526
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 02:40
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: May 26 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures prices maintain a weak trend [7] - Trend Logic: Domestic southwest wet - season electricity price is expected to drop from 0.35 yuan/kWh to 0.28 yuan/kWh, potentially lowering marginal cost by 200 - 300 yuan/ton; in March, exports to Europe increased 38% month - on - month but the average price fell 23.76% year - on - year; AI report shows prices in a downward channel [7] - Strategy Suggestion: Due to supply - demand contradictions and high inventory, it is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Prices maintained a weak trend, and it was recommended to wait and see [11] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Prices maintain a weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [11] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, up 322 tons from the previous week, and at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuate weakly [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fall, the cost support weakened as the ore price declined, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the market was oversupplied; the AI report shows prices in a downward channel [33] - Strategy Suggestion: Given the pessimistic market sentiment, prices may continue to fall, and it is recommended to wait and see [33] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices, and aggressive investors can consider buying put options [36] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: There is a possibility of continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices, and aggressive investors can consider buying put options [37] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, down 3,228 tons from the previous week, and at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39] - As of April 19, 2024, LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]
黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250526
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 02:30
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: May 26 - May 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week's gold price increase was driven by a weakening US dollar, rising risk - aversion demand, differentiated macro - economic data, and changes in market expectations for Fed policies. In the short term, gold faces pressure from policy expectation adjustments and technical corrections. In the long term, geopolitical risks, central banks' shift to loose policies, and the acceleration of de - dollarization will support the upward movement of gold prices [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Gold was under pressure at short - term highs, and it was recommended to wait and see. The support level for the main gold contract 2508 was 732 - 741, and the resistance level was 750 - 759 [10] - This Week's Strategy: It is recommended to allocate gold call options on dips. The support level for the main gold contract 2508 is 768 - 772, and the resistance level is 810 - 814 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [17][19][21] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways consolidation, possibly in the middle of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Affected by the US dollar index, geopolitical risks, and Fed policy expectations, silver's short - term volatility has increased. However, the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals support the price center. The continuous global silver supply - demand gap, China's stimulus plans, and growing industrial demand, along with the enhanced safe - haven property of silver due to geopolitical risks [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to use a grid trading strategy. The expected operating range for the Shanghai Silver contract 2508 is 7000 - 8800 [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would oscillate in a large range, and a grid trading strategy was recommended with the range of 7000 - 8800 [32] - This Week's Strategy: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will oscillate in a large range, and a grid trading strategy is recommended with the range of 7000 - 8800 [32] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [41][43][45]