2025.12.1-12.5 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场整体平稳，华东、华中及西北地区报价小幅上探。 随着检修装置恢复，行业开工率有所回升。需求端呈现分化，轻碱 货源局部偏紧，重碱受玻璃行业开工下滑影响表现疲软。成本支撑 与待发订单令报价保持坚挺，预计短期价格维持稳定，局部或有小 幅探涨。期货方面，纯碱期价维持低位震荡，供需宽松格局未改， 高库存与下游疲软持续压制价格，但成本支撑限制下行空间，市场 多空因素交织，短期延续窄幅波动。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国（周） 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场持稳运行，轻碱需求平稳，重碱疲软。供 应因检修略降但整体充裕，成本支撑与企业稳价意愿明显， 市场弱现实与强成本博弈，短期延续震荡。预计纯碱2601运 行区间1100-1250。 本周策略建议 上周纯碱现货市场整体平稳，部分地区报价微涨。供应逐步 ...

工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 2025.12.01-12.05 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至11月28日新疆地区421#价格9200元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力偏空态度较为明显。 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在8500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，LM ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore Futures [2] - Report Period: December 01 - 05, 2025 [1] 1. Rebar Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330 [7]. - Trend Logic: Weekly production is 2.12 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.33 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.56 million tons, and social inventory is 5.9 million tons [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Consider a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grids [7]. 1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Implement a large - grid trading strategy as the contract is in a sideways consolidation range [11]. - Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises: Wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [12]. 1.3 Relevant Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [15][20][21] 2. Iron Ore Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a range - bound consolidation stage of 732 - 872 [31]. - Trend Logic: Last week, global shipment volume was 34.73 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 22.17 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 89.93 million tons, and major domestic ports' inventory was 150.52 million tons [31]. - Strategy Suggestion: Consider implementing a grid trading strategy during the consolidation stage [31]. 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The mid - term price of iron ore was in an oscillatory consolidation stage [34]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Implement a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and 14 grids [35]. 2.3 Relevant Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [41]

2025.12.1-12.5 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 波动加大，轻仓持多为宜。 本周策略建议 趋势判断逻辑 12月初美联储降息预期升温、俄乌停战协议再生变故等因素推动铝价止跌回 升，考虑同时近日市场关于海外铜资源高度集中引发资金追逐的担忧及铝铜 比较处于历史低位。 2 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 未来一周主力2601合约看21000-21700区间。 适量增持库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年11月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 今年铝土矿累计进口量增速高于氧化铝今年累计产量的增速，目前铝土矿市场处于供过于求的状态，根 | | | 据Mysteel调研，几内亚停产矿山的复产流程正在稳步推进，另外新矿山的发运计划进展顺利，后续总体 | | | 供应稳中有增。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止11月28日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9740万吨，产能利用率约86.06%，据 | | | Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约1440万吨/年，主要集中在明年上半 ...

2025.12.01-12.05 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第47周油厂大豆实际压榨量233.44万吨，开机率为 64.22%，豆粕库存115.15万吨。油厂维持高开工率，加之大豆到港量充 裕，豆粕库存持续累积，供应整体宽松。同时，下游养殖利润处于亏损 状态，严重抑制饲料消费需求，企业多以刚需补库为主。尽管基本面偏 弱，但进口成本为价格提供底部支撑，加之南美天气仍存不确定性。综 合来看，中线趋势预计豆粕价格将处于震荡阶段。 2 关注美豆出口节奏，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601 短期内预计处于震荡偏弱阶段，预计运行区间：2920-3080。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面倾向不明显。M2601 短期内预计处于震荡阶段，预计运行区间：2980-3100。 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold futures are in an upward trend, possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and upward trend with a cumulative increase of 2.54%. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle [7]. - Silver futures are in a strong upward phase, also possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and strengthening trend. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the gold price was volatile and upward, with a 2.54% increase. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, a weaker US dollar index, and continuous capital inflow. However, the upward momentum was restricted as the market had partially priced in the easing expectation before the December FOMC meeting. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle in the long - term [7]. - **Mid - term Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level was 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level was 910 - 920 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 may continue high - level volatility in the short - term. The upper pressure level is 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 930 - 940 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23][25][27]. Silver Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend [31]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the silver price was volatile and strengthening. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, continuous depletion of global silver inventory, recovery of industrial demand, and large - scale capital inflow. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle in the long - term [31]. - **Mid - term Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2602 was in short - term consolidation. The upper pressure level was 12,000 - 12,200 yuan/kg, and the lower support level was 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/kg. It was recommended to wait and see [35]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2602 may strengthen in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support level is 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47].

工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 2025.11.24-11.28 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至11月21日新疆地区421#价格9200元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力显示出较强的偏多情绪。 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在7500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日， ...

Contents 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 2025.11.24-11.28 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第46周油厂大豆实际压榨量207.76万吨，开机率为 57.15%，豆粕库存99.29万吨。供应端，油厂高开工率与近百万吨库存令 市场承压，加之进口大豆到港及南美丰产预期，供应整体宽松。需求端， 养殖利润亏损抑制饲料消费，下游企业补库谨慎。然而，进口成本及油 厂持续亏损挺价意愿为价格提供支撑。中线趋势预计豆粕价格将处于宽 幅震荡阶段。 2 关注中美贸易政策变化，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于上行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601 短期内预计震荡调整后重心仍缓慢上移，预计运行区间： 3000-3180。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道,资金方面较为偏空。M2601短 期内预计处于震荡偏弱阶段，预计运行区间：2920-3080。 品种诊断情况 精选指标情况 本报 ...

Group 1: Overall Information - Report title: "Rebar, Iron Ore Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report period: November 24 - 28, 2025 [1] Group 2: Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range of 2882 - 3330 [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly rebar output is 2.08 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.3 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.53 million tons, and social inventory is 5.97 million tons [7] - Mid - term strategy: Consider a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and 14 grids [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy: Implement a large - grid trading strategy as the main contract is in a sideways consolidation range [11] - Hedging advice for spot enterprises: Wait and see until a new mid - term trend becomes clear [12] 3. Related Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [15][20][21] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a range - bound consolidation stage of 732 - 872 [31] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, the global shipment volume of iron ore was 3.516 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 2.268 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 9.001 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 15.054 million tons [31] - Mid - term strategy: Consider implementing a grid trading strategy [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The mid - term price of iron ore was in an oscillatory consolidation stage [34] - This week's strategy: Implement a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and 14 grids [35] 3. Related Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consulting department of Great Wall Futures [41][48][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile stage. The core contradiction of high supply and weak demand remains unresolved, and the price center has shifted downwards. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The float glass market is in a weak and volatile trend. The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term weak situation is difficult to change. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market was generally stable last week. The supply contracted due to some device overhauls, but it was still abundant. The demand was divided, with light soda demand relatively stable and heavy soda demand continuously weak. Coal cost increase and industry losses provided support for prices. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong cost, and it was expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term. The soda ash futures price oscillated downward, and the main contract fell below the key point. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. Light soda prices rose slightly, and heavy soda prices remained stable. Supply contracted but demand was stable, with obvious cost support. It was expected to continue narrow - range consolidation under the oversupply pattern. The futures were in a tug - of - war, and it was expected that the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market remained stable last week. Light soda demand was stable, and heavy soda demand was weak. Supply decreased slightly due to overhauls but was still abundant. Cost support and enterprises' willingness to stabilize prices were obvious. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong cost, and it was expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1100 - 1250 [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light - soda inventory, heavy - soda inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda process production cost in North China [13][17][19]. Float Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The float glass market was in a weak and volatile trend. The domestic float glass market declined weakly last week, with prices in various regions generally falling by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The supply was generally abundant, and downstream demand was continuously weak. Enterprises' shipment pressure increased, and most adopted price - cut promotions, but the transactions were mainly low - priced resources. The overall inventory was still in an accumulating trend. The supply - demand contradiction in the futures market was prominent, and the short - term weak situation was difficult to change. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see, and pay attention to inventory destocking and policy trends in the follow - up [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic float glass market was weak last week, with prices stable with a slight decline. Supply was sufficient but downstream orders were limited. Manufacturers mainly focused on reducing inventory and shipping. Cost provided support but the market lacked positive factors. The futures market was in a weak and volatile trend [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass market was weak last week, with spot prices generally falling. Supply was abundant while demand was weak. Enterprises carried out price - cut promotions, and the overall inventory pressure remained. The futures market declined unilaterally, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. It was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [35]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory [37][40][44].