01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 2026.01.05-01.09 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约运行于2882至3330的横盘整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量184万吨，表观消费量200万吨，主要钢厂库存133万 吨，社会库存430万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于横盘整理区间。 2 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入横盘整理区间，可考虑实施大网格交易策略。 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段建议观望等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 整理阶段可考虑网格交易策略，系统策略建议：天线3330，地线 2882，网格间距32，网格数量14。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货 ...

2026.1.5-1.9 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场期货价格自低位震荡反弹，现货价格整体平稳。 行业库存延续去化，总库存环比下降2.22%至140.66万吨，其中重 碱去库较为明显。当前供需宽松格局未改，下游采购以刚需为主， 市场交投氛围偏淡。未来需重点关注新增产能投放进度及节前下游 补库需求对价格的影响。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场弱势整理，供需宽松格局未变。现货需求 疲软且成本支撑减弱，期货先跌后涨，但高库存与过剩压力 持续，短期延续震荡。 本周策略建议 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国（周） 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 纯碱：轻质：库存：中国（周） 纯碱：重质：库存：中国（周） 上周国内纯碱期货价格低位反弹，现货持稳。行业库存环比 下降，其中重碱去库明显。当前市场供需格局依然宽松，下 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The mid - to long - term upward trend is expected to continue due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, but it may face short - term pressure and volatility. For Shanghai gold, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for the mid - line [7][8]. - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. The mid - to long - term upward trend is expected to continue supported by factors like falling global silver inventories, strong industrial demand, and Fed's rate - cut expectations, but it needs to beware of policy shifts and high volatility. A wait - and - see approach is also recommended for the mid - line [32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory (Gold Futures) 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. From late 2025 to early 2026, the gold price showed a high - level correction and then stabilized. Short - term factors led to a price drop from the high, but the mid - to long - term core logic for the rise remains unchanged. The price found support in the range of $4300 - 4350 per ounce (about 970 - 980 yuan per gram in China) and rebounded. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy for Shanghai gold contract 2604 was to be cautiously bullish in the short - term, with an upper pressure level of 1011 - 1026 yuan per gram and a lower support level of 988 - 1000 yuan per gram, and to buy on dips while being aware of New Year's holiday risks. - This week's strategy for Shanghai gold contract 2604 is also to be cautiously bullish in the short - term, with an upper pressure level of 980 - 1000 yuan per gram and a lower support level of 950 - 970 yuan per gram. Buy on dips and control positions due to large short - term fluctuations [10][11]. 3.3 Related Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][24]. Group 4: Summary by Directory (Silver Futures) 4.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai silver futures are in a strong upward trend and at the end of it. From late 2025 to early 2026, the silver price showed an extreme trend of soaring and then crashing, followed by a volatile stabilization. Short - term fluctuations were due to factors like margin hikes by the exchange. The mid - to long - term upward trend is supported by factors such as falling inventories, strong industrial demand, and Fed's rate - cut expectations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [32]. 4.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy for silver contract 2604 was that it ran strongly at a high level, with a lower support level of 18,000 - 18,500 yuan per kilogram, and to buy on dips while being aware of New Year's holiday risks. - This week's strategy for silver contract 2604 is that it runs at a high level, with an upper pressure level of 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and a lower support level of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan per kilogram. Buy on dips and control positions due to increased short - term fluctuations [35][36]. 4.3 Related Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][47][49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a volatile state, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. Lithium carbonate futures are on the rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8][33][34] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are in a volatile run. Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. As of January 4, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,900 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 10,000 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily price of industrial silicon is in a sideways phase, and the main force shows a strong bearish sentiment [8] - The mid - line strategy suggestion is to wait and see [9] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the industrial silicon 2605 contract fluctuated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. This week, the main contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12] 3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18] Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are currently on the rise. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly. As of January 4, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 117,250 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 114,850 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong upward stage, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment [33][34] - The mid - line strategy suggestion is to buy on dips as the bottom of lithium carbonate is rising [34] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the bottom of lithium carbonate rose, and the main 2605 contract should pay attention to the support in the range of 96,000 - 97,000 yuan. This week, the main contract should pay attention to the support in the range of 100,000 - 105,000 yuan [37][38] 3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [43]

01 P A R T 豆粕期货 2026.01.05-01.09 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 据Mysteel数据：第52周油厂大豆实际压榨量206.44万吨，开机率为 56.79%，豆粕库存116.76万吨。当前油厂维持高开机率，豆粕库存处于 历史高位，现货供应宽松及下游谨慎采购持续压制价格上方空间。然而 未来大豆到港节奏的不确定性及节前备货需求对价格形成阶段性提振。 预计豆粕期货价格在多空因素交织下维持震荡格局。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，到港节奏。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2605短 期内预计延续震荡趋势，预计运行区间：2730-2850。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2605短 期内预计处于弱势震荡阶段，预计运行区间：2700-2800。 趋势判断逻辑 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕(m) v < | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pattern of the electrolytic aluminum market remains bullish in the medium - term, with a high - level oscillation expected in January. The macro - sentiment is the dominant factor. Supply constraints are formed by technological transformation in Xinjiang and power rationing during the dry season in Yunnan, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level year - on - year and is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term. Although the demand in downstream new - energy vehicle and photovoltaic fields is growing rapidly, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure of the off - season, and the market is mainly for replenishing essential supplies. [5] - In the short term, it is advisable to exit the market and wait and see for short - term long positions, while continue to hold medium - term long positions. Spot enterprises are advised to hold sufficient spot inventories for hedging. [8] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The Guinea general election is basically settled. The future mining rectification in Guinea is expected to focus on "cleaning up the stock and optimizing the structure", and large - scale mines in production face a low risk of policy - related shutdown. The cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to Guinean ports is mainly between $20 - 45 per ton. The expected CIF average price range of Guinean bauxite in 2026 by mainstream institutions is $58 - 68 per ton. [9] - **Alumina Market**: As of the end of December, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 94.4 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.14%. The new alumina production capacity in 2026 is about 14.4 million tons per year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the overseas new capacity scale may be limited. In 2026, the domestic market may start production cuts at the beginning of the year, driving up prices, but the subsequent复产 will lead to a "shortage - then - surplus" cycle in the second half of the year. [9] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6393 million tons, both slightly higher than the previous month. The global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to almost disappear in 2026. [9] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,300 yuan per ton. In November 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on January 1, 2026, may increase the short - term export cost. [9] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 638,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 35% higher than the same period last year. The inventory in factories and the social inventory are still at a relatively low level since 2022. The aluminum rod inventory is 139,600 tons, an increase of about 11% from last week and about 20% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a low level in recent years. [9] - **Profit**: The average full cost of the domestic alumina industry in the recent month is about 2,780 yuan per ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan per ton and a theoretical profit of about 0 yuan per ton for the futures main contract. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan per ton, with a theoretical profit of about 5,500 yuan per ton. [10] - **Market Expectation**: The positive macro - sentiment still dominates. In the first quarter, the supply will increase slightly while the demand is disturbed by factors such as the Spring Festival, so the supply - demand contradiction of electrolytic aluminum may be prominent, and the price may reach a relative low point around the Spring Festival, but it is advisable to consider laying out long positions. In the second quarter, with the implementation of fiscal stimulus policies at home and abroad, the price has a driving force to rise again. [10] 3.2 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of imported and domestic bauxite are generally stable, with few market transactions. The domestic coal price has dropped significantly recently, and the advantage of imported coal is significantly compressed. The terminal power plant has sufficient inventory and purchases cautiously, and the coal price is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term. The alumina spot market is stable this week, and low prices attract some buyers. The market has great differences in the recent trend of alumina, but the pessimistic sentiment still dominates. [11] 3.3 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The bauxite inventory at domestic ports has been slightly declining since the end of November. With the resumption of production of some mines in Guinea, the arrival pressure next year is still high, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. Alumina has been in the process of inventory accumulation since the end of May and is currently at a high level in recent years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and although the overall inventory level is relatively low since 2022, the high price and the off - season have restricted the warehouse shipment volume. The LME aluminum inventory is at a low level in recent years. [13][15][16] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - **Downstream Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss, and the electrolytic aluminum has a relatively high theoretical profit, but the theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum exists. [18] - **Downstream Start - up Situation**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises has decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline steadily in January. The operating rates of some sub - sectors such as aluminum strips, cables, and profiles have decreased. [24][25] 3.5 Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a contango market structure, and the electrolytic aluminum output can be smoothly transferred to the middle and lower reaches. [29] 3.6 Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,520 yuan per ton, and the current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which has a negative impact on electrolytic aluminum. [35][36] 3.7 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds has continued to increase slightly. Since November 2025, the long camp has remained stable while the short camp has significantly reduced positions. Overall, overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long - position floating - profit positions are heavy, and high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur. [38] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force has converged this week. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the long camp increased slightly while the short camp slightly reduced positions. The net short position of funds mainly for financial speculation continued to increase slightly, and the net long position of funds from middle and lower - stream enterprises is in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the main funds are still relatively cautious about the recent rise. [41]

目录 中线行情分析 2025.12.29-12.31 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场呈现弱势整理格局，部分价格有所走低。供应端 持续高位运行，而需求维持低迷，尤其是重碱受下游玻璃冷修影响 明显。煤炭价格下行进一步削弱成本支撑，但企业亏损现状限制了 价格的下跌空间。总体交投平淡，市场缺乏方向性驱动，短期预计 延续窄幅震荡。纯碱期货先抑后扬，周尾随商品市场情绪反弹企稳， 但供需过剩格局未改，高库存与持续贴水仍构成压力，短期或维持 区间震荡。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅整理，供需宽松格局未变，企业库存 承压，成本支撑减弱。期货在低位震荡后小幅反弹，基本面 疲弱与宏观预期交织，短期延续震荡。 本周策略建议 上周国内纯碱市场弱势整理，供需宽松格局未变。现货需求 疲软且成本支撑减弱，期货先跌后涨，但高库存与过剩压力 持续，短期延续震荡。 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The rise of gold prices last week was driven by monetary easing expectations and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [7][8]. - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase and is currently at the end of the trend. The rise of silver prices was driven by macro - easing, supply - demand tensions, and risk - aversion needs. It is also recommended to wait and see in the medium term [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week's gold price increase was driven by monetary easing expectations and geopolitical risks. The Fed's interest - rate cut prospects lowered real interest rates, and geopolitical risks provided support. There was also demand resonance from central bank gold purchases and the record - high scale of domestic gold ETFs. Technically, the gold price broke through the previous high. Short - term risks include profit - taking pressure due to large annual gains and possible weakening of upward momentum if US economic data is strong or geopolitical situations ease [7]. - Mid - line strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: For the Shanghai gold contract 2602, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish, with an upper pressure level of 985 - 1000 yuan/gram and a lower support level of 935 - 950 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: For the Shanghai gold contract 2604, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with an upper pressure level of 1011 - 1026 yuan/gram and a lower support level of 988 - 1000 yuan/gram. It is advised to buy on dips, paying attention to New Year's Day holiday risks [11]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data - Provided historical data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, as well as the holding volume of SPDR gold ETF, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase and is currently at the end of the trend [31]. - Trend judgment logic: Last week's silver price increase was driven by macro - easing, supply - demand tensions, and risk - aversion needs. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar provided support. Strong photovoltaic demand, a five - year supply gap, and a seven - year low in exchange inventory strengthened its commodity attributes. There was also significant linkage between domestic and foreign markets and strong investment demand. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm data on interest - rate cut expectations and the sustainability of inventory shortages. Risks include a more than 140% annual increase in silver prices, overbought RSI, and possible price re - evaluation if the Fed signals a slowdown in interest - rate cuts [31]. - Mid - line strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2602 was expected to operate strongly at a high level, with a lower support level of 1.45 - 1.5 million yuan/kilogram. It was advised to buy on dips [34]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is expected to operate strongly at a high level, with a lower support level of 1.8 - 1.85 million yuan/kilogram. It is advised to buy on dips, paying attention to New Year's Day holiday risks [35]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data - Provided historical data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, the holding volume of SLV silver ETF, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]

2025.12.29-12.31 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 整理阶段可考虑网格交易策略，系统策略建议：天线3330，地线 2882，网格间距32，网格数量14。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约运行于2882至3330的横盘整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量186万吨，表观消费量218万吨，主要钢厂库存142万 吨，社会库存545万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于横盘整理区间。 2 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入横盘整理区间，可考虑实施大网格交易策略。 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段建议观望等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货 ...

12.31 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 2025.12.29- 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 工业硅震荡偏强运行，观望为主。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡偏强运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至12月26日新疆地区421#价格9050元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在上升通道中。资金方面， 主力显示出较强的偏空情绪。 上周策略回顾 工业硅2605合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 本周策略建议 工业硅2605合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情 ...