Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 29 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: This week, gold futures prices showed a strong - side oscillatory pattern of "rallying, pulling back, and then stabilizing again". Influenced by factors such as the market's expectation of further easing after the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical risks boosting safe - haven demand, and the resonance of increased global gold ETF holdings and strong domestic consumption demand. Although there was a short - term pullback due to the resilience of US economic data and profit - taking by long positions, the medium - and long - term supporting factors remained unchanged, and the price quickly recovered and reached a new phased high. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and rising geopolitical risks, combined with a surge in investment demand, provide multiple supports [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to mainly oscillate at a high level, with support at 805 - 812 and resistance at 838 - 845. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The gold contract 2512 faces pressure from profit - taking at high levels, with support at 845 - 850. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [11]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the main silver futures contract 2512 showed an oscillatory strengthening trend, with a weekly increase of 2.91%, and the closing price reached a record high since listing. It was mainly supported by the financial attribute premium under the strengthened Fed interest - rate cut expectation, the safe - haven demand driven by geopolitical risks, and the fundamental support formed by industrial demand (photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles) and the supply - demand gap. The capital side shows that long - position confidence is stable, with both open interest and trading volume increasing simultaneously. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm payroll data on interest - rate cut expectations, policy signals from Fed officials, and the position - holding risks brought by China's "National Day" holiday [32]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2512 was expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 9500 - 9800. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2512 is expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 10400 - 10500. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [36]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 29 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon increased. As of September 26, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9300 yuan/ton, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of industrial silicon was in a sideways phase. In terms of funds, the main short - selling camp had a slight advantage [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is expected that the operating range of the industrial silicon 2511 contract will be between 7700 and 10000 [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: Industrial silicon was in a large - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [11] - This Week's Strategy: To control the uncertainty risk during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday [12] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate remained stable. As of September 26, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures was in a sideways phase. In terms of funds, the main force showed a strong bullish sentiment [33] - Mid - term Strategy: It is expected that the lithium carbonate 2511 contract will operate in the range of 65,000 to 100,000 [33] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: Consider grid trading within the range for lithium carbonate [36] - This Week's Strategy: To control the uncertainty risk during the National Day holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the holiday [37] 3. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to show a strong and volatile pattern in Q4 2025, with the main fluctuation range between 20,400 - 21,400 yuan. The global economic outlook is improving, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has started, and domestic policies are providing support. Supply has limited increments and rigid constraints, while overall demand remains resilient with a strong new - energy sector and a weak real - estate sector [5][12]. - It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions when the price is below 20,000 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In Q4, the global economic outlook improves, the Fed starts the interest - rate cut cycle, and domestic policies provide support. Supply has limited increments and rigid constraints. The new - energy sector is strong while the real - estate sector is weak, and overall demand remains resilient. The aluminum price in Q4 2025 is expected to be in a strong and volatile pattern [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider holding medium - term long positions when the price is below 20,000 [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is advisable to avoid risks and wait and see due to the approaching long holiday. Appropriate holiday inventory can be allocated. Hedging suggestions are provided for spot enterprises [8]. Overall View Market Conditions - **Bauxite Market**: In Q4, the disturbances in Guinea's bauxite market are expected to be controllable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 70 - 75 dollars/ton. Domestic mine governance policies will have long - term constraints on domestic ores, and the supply in Q4 is unlikely to improve significantly [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the domestic alumina's built - in capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,670 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.95%. Some high - cost enterprises may cut production and conduct maintenance in October as the average monthly price declines [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum's built - in capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 4,500 million tons, and the operating capacity is 4,410 million tons with a high operating rate of 98%. The net increase in production this year is expected to be less than 50 million tons. The import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,400 yuan/ton, and aluminum exports are expected to remain resilient [9]. Demand Conditions - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum profiles remains stable at 54.60%. Construction profiles have limited growth due to the weak real - estate market. Auto profiles are stable and improving, but enterprises are skeptical about future order increments. Photovoltaic profiles' major enterprises maintain a high operating rate, but new orders are expected to decline [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increases by 0.8 percentage points to 69.0%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises increases by 0.7 percentage points to 72.6%. The overall operating rate of the aluminum foil industry in October is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increases by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The power grid project is in the peak construction season, and overseas photovoltaic order effects are emerging, ensuring the order saturation of the State Grid in Q4 and next year [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy enterprises increases by 1% to 58.4%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increases by 0.7 percentage points to 56.6%. The overall operating rate of the industry will decline during the National Day holiday [10]. Inventory Conditions - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 61.5 million tons, a decrease of about 4% from last week and about 12% lower than the same period last year. It is expected to increase by 6 - 8 million tons during the double festivals. The inventory of aluminum rods is 11.36 million tons, a decrease of about 13% from last week and about 5% higher than last year. LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue accumulating [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, bauxite prices decline slightly, coal prices decline slightly, and alumina prices continue to decline slightly. In Q4, Guinea's bauxite price is likely to fluctuate between 70 - 75 dollars, corresponding to a cash cost of 2,900 - 3,100 yuan for alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan using imported ores. Aluminum prices decline slightly, with the Fed's interest - rate cut followed by a dollar rebound suppressing the financial premium of metals, but domestic policies provide support [13][14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory increases slightly, and alumina inventory continues to accumulate. The domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreases, and it is expected to increase during the double festivals. Aluminum rod inventory decreases. LME aluminum inventory continues to increase [15][17]. Supply - Demand Situation - The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,600 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increases by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%. The market shows strong domestic demand and emerging sectors offsetting traditional weakness, but small and medium - sized enterprises face order and funding pressures [19][24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is weak [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,110 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds continues to rise. Since June, both long and short positions have been increasing, and the overall market is still optimistic [37]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long position of the main contract turns to a net short position. Since mid - September, both long and short positions have decreased significantly, with the long - position reduction slightly greater than the short - position reduction. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds continues to decrease slightly. The funds of mid - and downstream enterprises are in a stalemate. The pre - holiday market has strong risk - aversion sentiment [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000, and for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [6][31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main long - position camp has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation. - This week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation [10][11]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main players. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [35]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the upward channel, and the main contract of iron ore futures is also in the first week of the upward channel [7][34]. - For rebar, spot - demand customers can consider a step - by - step 50% buy - hedging strategy; for iron ore, spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [11][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the upward channel. The weekly output is 215 million tons, the apparent consumption is 193 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 172 million tons, and the social inventory is 725 million tons. Spot - demand customers can consider a step - by - step buy - hedging strategy [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - The main contract of rebar futures is in the third week of the downward ladder. According to the model, it has entered the first week of the mid - line upward channel. Spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [10][11]. - **Related Data Situation** - The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [15]. Iron Ore Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The main contract of iron ore futures is in the first week of the upward channel. The global shipment volume last week was 2762 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2453 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 8996 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 13842 million tons. Spot - demand customers can consider a long - hedging strategy [34]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the mid - line price of iron ore was in a stable consolidation stage. This week, spot - demand customers can consider a 50% buy - hedging strategy [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [17].

Group 1: Gold Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring - retracting - recovering" this week due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: This week, the gold futures price showed a "soaring - retracting - recovering" pattern due to the "expectation gap" after the Fed's interest rate cut and the offset of high inventory by central bank gold purchases and ETF fund inflows. Next week, key factors include the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, inventory destocking rhythm, and global risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks drive the price, with surging investment demand providing multiple supports [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The gold contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile and strong operation, with the lower support level at 795 - 814, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The gold contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with the lower support level at 805 - 812 and the upper resistance level at 838 - 845. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [12]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Gold futures price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][23][25] Group 2: Silver Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend. The price showed a volatile pattern of "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" last week, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, there is a risk of a pullback after "positive realization". In the long - term, attention should be paid to the resonance of industrial demand and financial attributes, and silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" in the fourth quarter if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled [33]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [33]. - **Trend Judgment Logic**: Last week, the silver futures price showed a "soaring, retracting, and then rebounding" pattern, affected by the "buy - on - expectation, sell - on - reality" effect after the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the bottom support from continuous inventory destocking. In the short - term, if the Fed is cautious about the 2026 interest rate cut expectation or the US economic data is unexpectedly strong, silver may test the 9800 yuan/ton support level again. In the long - term, if the soft - landing expectation is fulfilled in the fourth quarter, silver may have higher elasticity than gold under the combination of "interest rate cut + demand recovery" [33]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2512 was expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800, and investors were warned of the risk of chasing high prices [36]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2512 is expected to be mainly in a strong operation, with the lower support range at 9500 - 9800. Key factors to focus on are the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [37]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data on Shanghai Silver futures price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from September 22 - 26, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal主力 is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 37th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, with an operating rate of 66.35%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, an increase of 28,200 tons or 2.48% from the previous week. High inventory may pressure the basis of major coastal areas. Feed mills are starting to stock up, and the market sentiment is mainly wait - and - see. The price is expected to continue the wide - range oscillation [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with more bullish funds. M2601 was expected to oscillate between 2980 - 3200 [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with more bullish funds. M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 [11] 3. Variety Diagnosis - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is 82.4, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among the main forces; the capital energy is - 48.1, meaning a small outflow of main funds; the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [14] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil主力 is in an oscillation phase. In the 37th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 448,500 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week. The spot market trading is light, and the double - festival stocking is not obvious. High inventory may see a decline around mid - to - late October, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate [29] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with slightly bearish funds. Y2601 was expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the short term [32] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is sideways, with more bullish funds. Y2601 is expected to continue the oscillation pattern in the short term [32] 3. Variety Diagnosis - The variety diagnosis shows that the multi - empty flow is 58.4, indicating a relatively bullish sentiment among the main forces; the capital energy is 2.8, meaning the capital is basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 75.3, suggesting a certain risk of market reversal [35]

Group 1: Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the mid - line trends, trading strategies, and relevant data of soda ash and glass futures. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures due to market uncertainties such as high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [6][29] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The market is overall stable with partial price increases. Supply has minor fluctuations, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Inventory is decreasing, but high supply and high inventory limit the rebound space. The short - term is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations [6] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash market continued narrow - range fluctuations last week. Supply was loose, demand was weak, and inventory was still high. The futures market declined with pressure on the fundamentals. It was expected that SA2601 would operate in the range of 1200 - 1350, and waiting and seeing was advisable [9] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The soda ash market was stable with partial small increases last week. Futures were in a strong - side volatile state. Macro and policy expectations provided support, but high supply and high inventory restricted the increase. SA2601 is expected to operate in the range of 1200 - 1350, and waiting and seeing is recommended [10] Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率, production, light - and heavy - type inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The main force in the market is relatively bullish, funds are basically stable, and the risk of a market turn is relatively high [11][15][21] Group 3: Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Glass is in a volatile trend. The domestic float glass market was overall stable last week with regional price differences. Supply changed little, and terminal demand was weak. The futures market first fell, then rose, and then fell back. Continued upward momentum is restricted by insufficient spot follow - up [29] - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [29] Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The float glass market had narrow - range fluctuations last week. Some areas saw small price increases, but downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The futures market first rose and then fell. It was expected that FG2601 would operate in the range of 1150 - 1300, and holding an empty position and waiting and seeing was advisable [32] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass market showed regional differences last week. The futures market rebounded, but demand was still weak. Inventory performance varied. FG2601 is expected to operate in the range of 1150 - 1300, and holding an empty position and waiting and seeing is recommended [33] Relevant Data - The data covers China's weekly float glass production,开工率, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory. The main force in the market is strongly bullish, main funds are flowing in slightly, and the risk of a market turn is relatively high [34][38][49]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation tendency. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December [5][11]. - The overall price of aluminum may be under pressure and oscillate. The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. It is advisable to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. - **Variety Trading Strategy**: - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week was about 20,800, and the resistance was about 21,400. Hold long positions with a light position [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900. Conduct short - term trading. Spot enterprises are recommended to increase inventory appropriately [8]. 3.2 Overall Viewpoints - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Recently, the price of Guinean bauxite has tightened seasonally due to the rainy - season shipping. After the rainy season ends, the ore price is expected to have a seasonal correction without unexpected events, but there is an obvious support at 70 US dollars/ton. In the fourth quarter, the domestic ore output will be marginally repaired, but the overall supply is difficult to improve significantly due to stricter environmental protection and supervision [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 12, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 86.23% (85.21% last week), which is at a high level since 2022. Since late August, the smelting profit has slightly declined. Now the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.1 million tons, and the operating rate is as high as 98%, with limited room for further production increase. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter only comes from 100,000 tons of Chalco Qinghai (transfer of Yunnan's quota) and a 250,000 - ton replacement project of Xinjiang Nongliushi Aluminum Industry. The net increase for the whole year is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in 2025 is expected to be 43.96 - 44.5 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate dropping to 1.5% - 2.3%. The output in the fourth quarter may remain high but is difficult to increase significantly [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. Although the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, the overall resilience is still expected [9]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. The operating rate of construction profiles remains low, while industrial profiles have received more new orders recently in the traditional peak season of September, supporting the operating rate. Most enterprises have not determined the National Day holiday arrangements, and some enterprises in Sichuan and Shandong plan to take about 3 days off [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 68.2% this week. In the short term, the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises is expected to remain stable or oscillate upward. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 71.9%, and the slowdown of leading enterprises is obvious. In the short term, supported by the peak - season effect, the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises is expected to oscillate between 72% - 75% [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remained stable at 65.2% this week. All leading manufacturers are busy. As the National Day holiday approaches, the purchasing intensity of downstream manufacturers is expected to increase further, and the operating rate is expected to rise slowly next week [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 57.4% this week, and the industry's production capacity release has slightly converged. Although the industry's operating rate is oscillating and adjusting in the short term, SMM still has an optimistic expectation for the peak season. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 55.9% this week, mainly benefiting from the alleviation of raw material procurement pressure and the moderate recovery of orders. The short - term industry operating rate will maintain a slight upward trend, but raw material shortages and policy factors will continue to suppress the capacity recovery elasticity [10]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 640,000 tons, an increase of about 3% from last week and about 14% lower than the same period last year, continuing the inventory - building trend since mid - July. This week's inventory increase is mainly due to the decrease in warehouse shipments, but the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased. The increase in electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to be limited in the near future. The aluminum rod inventory is 130,200 tons, basically stable compared with last week and about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory has risen again, continuing the inventory - building pattern since the end of June. As there are signs of the Russia - Ukraine war ending through negotiations, the previous market's hidden inventory is gradually becoming explicit, and the LME inventory is still likely to accumulate in the future [10][16]. - **Alumina**: The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants. The port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,840 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week) [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week). The profit is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. - **Personal View**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. The aluminum price may still be under pressure and consolidate in the coming week. The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900 [11]. - **Key Concerns**: 1. Changes in domestic social inventory. 2. Whether there are disturbances at the Guinean ore end. 3. The implementation of China's anti - involution - related policies [11]. 3.3 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, bauxite prices remained stable. As the rainy season in Guinea is approaching recovery and there are frequent policy - related disturbance news, and the long - term contract price in the fourth quarter has not been finalized, the increase in the supply of imported bauxite has become the focus of the market. Coal prices rose slightly, driven by pre - holiday stocking. Under strict current production capacity control, the pit - mouth price is resistant to decline. Seasonally, the single - electricity price in Yunnan is about 0.382 yuan, and it is more likely to rise in October. This week, the alumina price continued to decline slightly. Due to oversupply and inventory accumulation, the spot price is under pressure [12]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic port bauxite inventory slightly rebounded, continuing to accumulate to a recent high since the beginning of 2025 and stabilizing at a high level after August. However, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants is still increasing. According to DISR's forecast, the export volume of Australian bauxite is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, while the port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry this week is about 2,840 yuan/ton, the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical import profit of alumina is about 150 yuan/ton (120 yuan/ton last week); the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17,200 yuan/ton (about 17,500 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week) [18]. - **Downstream Processing**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating of leading primary alloy enterprises is stable, but small and medium - sized enterprises' operating rates have adjusted due to demand fluctuations; the operating rate of sampled aluminum sheet enterprises decreased slightly this week; the operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable; the operating rate of profiles increased slightly, mainly because industrial profiles are supported by orders from the automotive and photovoltaic industries; the demand for packaging foil is rigid but has limited growth; the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry increased slightly. The weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [22][23]. 3.6 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai aluminum futures price structure is weak [28]. 3.7 Spread Structure - This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,040 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,940 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the current spread has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. 3.8 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: After remaining stable for the previous four weeks, the net long position of funds in the latest period has significantly increased, mainly related to the Fed's interest rate cut in September. According to the dot - plot, there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the overall market is still bullish [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long position of the main contract slightly declined, and both the long and short camps slightly reduced their positions; the net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation slightly reduced. The funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises changed from a slight net long position to a slight net short position and have been in a stalemate between long and short recently. Judging from the performance of the current main funds, the market may oscillate and be under pressure in the coming week [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soda ash futures market is in a volatile phase with a supply - demand imbalance. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [6][9]. - The glass futures market is also in a volatile trend. High inventory and slow demand recovery restrict market improvement, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [29][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market was weak last week, with prices under pressure. Supply increased slightly while demand remained weak. Inventory was high and de - stocking was slow. The market is expected to continue its weak trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the soda ash market was weak. The futures first rose and then fell. This week, the market is still expected to be under pressure. The operating range of Soda Ash 2601 is expected to be 1200 - 1350, and it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data includes weekly开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差, and ammonia - alkali production cost in North China. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is relatively bearish, the capital is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is high [10][15][20]. Glass Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The glass market is in a volatile trend. The domestic float glass market was stable last week with some local price increases lacking momentum. High inventory and slow demand recovery restricted the market. The supply increased slightly, and inventory accumulated. The futures market is expected to continue its weak volatility, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [29]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the float glass spot market was stable with some local small increases. The futures first rose and then fell. This week, the market is expected to continue its weak volatility. The expected operating range of Glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [32][33]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data includes weekly产量,开工率, production cost, production gross profit,基差, and期末库存. The variety diagnosis shows that the main force is strongly bullish, the capital outflow is significant, and the risk of a market reversal is high [35][38][43].