Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Geely Automobile Holdings with a target price of HK$26.60 [2][4][15]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve vehicle deliveries of 3.04 million, 3.52 million, and 3.97 million units for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with NEV penetration rates projected at 57%, 59%, and 66% [4][15]. - The report anticipates a core net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb16.40 billion, Rmb18.88 billion, and Rmb22.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -1%, 15%, and 19% respectively [4][15]. - The company is expected to fully realize synergies from its consolidation with ZEEKR by 2026, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency [6][18]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Geely reported revenue of Rmb89.19 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, while cumulative revenue for the first nine months reached Rmb239.48 billion, up 26% year-on-year [5][16]. - The core net profit for Q3 2025 was Rmb3.96 billion, a 19% increase year-on-year, with a total of Rmb10.62 billion for the first nine months, marking a 59% year-on-year growth [6][17]. - The company maintained a strong cash position with Rmb56.22 billion in cash at the end of September 2025, representing a 31% year-on-year increase [5][16]. Market Position and Strategy - Geely is positioned to achieve its 2025 sales target comfortably, with expectations of 3.04 million units sold, while ZEEKR's overseas sales are projected to grow by 50% to 80% [18][19]. - The report highlights that the company retains strategic advantages in NEV rollout, export expansion, and brand-mix upgrading, which are expected to support continued market share gains in a moderately growing industry [19].

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability, driven by strong sales and new product launches [2][3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 89.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2]. - Total sales volume reached 761,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9% [3]. Margins and Costs - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.6%, showing a year-on-year improvement due to scale effects and product mix enhancement [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.2% due to price competition and a higher proportion of lower-priced models [3]. Expenses and Other Income - The sales, research and administrative expense ratios were 6.0%, 4.9%, and 1.5% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.2%, +0.3%, and -0.6% [3]. - Other income for Q3 2025 was 950 million yuan, down 18.9% from the previous quarter, primarily due to a foreign exchange loss of 250 million yuan [3]. Future Outlook - The company raised its net profit forecast for 2025 to 18.1 billion yuan, up from the previous estimate of 15 billion yuan, while adjusting the 2026 and 2027 forecasts downwards due to potential policy impacts [4]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9, 8, and 6 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [4].

Core Insights - Geely Automobile Holdings Limited reported a record high revenue of 89.2 billion yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 27% year-on-year increase [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 reached 3.96 billion yuan, representing a 19% year-on-year growth [1] - For the first three quarters of the year, Geely's cumulative net profit was 10.62 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year, indicating robust profitability [1] Financial Performance - Q3 gross profit totaled 14.8 billion yuan, with an 11% increase from the previous quarter [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 16.5% [1] - As of the end of September, the company had a net cash level of 45.2 billion yuan, indicating strong cash reserves [1] Sales and Production - By the end of October, Geely had achieved a cumulative sales volume of 2.477 million vehicles, reaching 82.6% of its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles [1] - In Q4, Geely plans to launch several new and updated models, including the Geely Galaxy Star 6, to support the achievement of its annual sales target [1] Corporate Developments - The CEO of Geely confirmed that there are no legal obstacles remaining for the merger of Zeekr and Geely, with the completion of the overall transaction expected by the end of this year [1]

Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a record high revenue of 89.2 billion yuan for Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.96 billion yuan in Q3, a 19% increase year-on-year, with a total of 10.62 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 59% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Geely's profit per vehicle increased to 5,200 yuan, up from 4,700 yuan in the first half of the year [2] - The cumulative sales volume as of October 2025 reached 2.477 million units, a 44% year-on-year increase, achieving 83% of the annual target of 3 million units [2] Market Position and Competition - In October, Geely's sales growth rate reached 35%, with monthly sales exceeding 300,000 units, largely driven by the new "Geely Galaxy" brand, which accounted for over 40% of total sales [6] - Geely Galaxy achieved over 1 million cumulative sales in the first ten months, becoming the fastest domestic new energy brand to reach this milestone [7] - Geely's market share increased to over 11% in October, narrowing the gap with market leader BYD, whose market share decreased to 14% [7] Strategic Developments - Geely is actively expanding production capacity for the Galaxy brand, including plans to modify existing factories for increased output [7] - The company is pursuing international expansion, having entered markets such as the UK and Uzbekistan, and plans to significantly increase exports of new energy vehicles starting next year [8] Brand Strategy and Integration - Geely is shifting towards a "One Geely" strategy to consolidate its brands, with the integration of Lynk & Co and Zeekr brands underway [10] - The financial performance of Zeekr and Lynk & Co showed a total delivery of approximately 140,000 units in Q3, a 13% increase year-on-year, with revenue of about 31.6 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [9] - Zeekr's recent adjustments in sales channels and user engagement have led to a recovery in sales, with new models contributing to an increase in average price [12]

吉利汽车在港交所公告，于2025年11月18日，公司与独立经纪商Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc订 立一份股份回购协议，据此，该经纪商或其联属人士将于香港联交所回购股份，涉及金额最高达23亿港 元。据公司了解，该经纪商将参与回购计划相关的自营交易活动。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q3 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with total revenue of 89.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.82 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 59.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2] - The company achieved total sales of 761,000 units in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 16.6%, showing a year-on-year improvement due to scale effects and product mix enhancement, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline [2] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025 to 18.1 billion yuan (previously 15 billion yuan) due to strong sales performance in the first three quarters and the successful launch of new models [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 179.204 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.11%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 240.194 billion yuan, growing by 34.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 5.308 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 16.632 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 213.32% [1] Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 0.52 yuan per share, with a forecast of 1.64 yuan for 2024 and 1.79 yuan for 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 29.84 for 2023, decreasing to 9.52 for 2024 and further to 8.76 for 2025 [1] Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 325.928 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.04% [9] - The cash flow from operating activities for 2025 is expected to be 29.426 billion yuan, indicating a healthy cash generation capability [9]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Geely Automobile (00175) has met expectations for its third-quarter performance and is on track to achieve its annual profit target, maintaining an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 24 [1] Financial Performance - Geely's third-quarter net profit reached RMB 3.8 billion, representing a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 58% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast of RMB 3.7 billion and aligning with market expectations [1] - Excluding foreign exchange gains and impairment losses, the core net profit for the last quarter was RMB 4 billion, up from RMB 3.2 billion in the previous quarter [1] - For the first three quarters, core net profit increased by 59% to RMB 10.6 billion, moving towards the annual target of RMB 15 billion [1] Revenue and Sales - Geely's revenue for the last quarter rose by 26% year-on-year and by 15% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 89 billion, driven by an 8% increase in sales volume [1] - The average selling price showed a mid-single-digit percentage increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while operating expenses increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the launch of new models (Galaxy M9/A7 and Zeekr 9X) and higher restructuring costs [1] - Excluding contributions from Zeekr, Geely's profit per vehicle was RMB 5,900, down from RMB 6,300 in the previous quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Geely Automobile's Q3 performance meets expectations and is on track to achieve its annual targets, maintaining an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 24 [1] Financial Performance - Geely's Q3 net profit reached RMB 3.8 billion, a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 58% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectation of RMB 3.7 billion and aligning with market expectations [1] - Excluding foreign exchange gains and impairment losses, the core net profit for the last quarter was RMB 4 billion, up from RMB 3.2 billion in the previous quarter [1] - For the first three quarters, core net profit rose 59% to RMB 10.6 billion, moving towards the annual target of RMB 15 billion [1] Revenue and Sales - Geely's revenue increased by 26% year-on-year and by 15% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 89 billion, driven by an 8% increase in sales volume [1] - The average selling price showed mid-single-digit growth quarter-on-quarter [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while operating expenses rose by 8% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to the launch of new models (Galaxy M9/A7 and Zeekr 9X) and higher restructuring costs [1] - Excluding contributions from Zeekr, Geely's profit per vehicle was RMB 5,900, down from RMB 6,300 in the previous quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile (00175) has announced a share buyback agreement with Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, allowing for a maximum repurchase amount of HKD 2.3 billion [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Agreement - The share buyback agreement is set to take place on November 18, 2025 [1] - The buyback will be executed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the independent broker having full discretion over the transactions [1] - The repurchase will follow predetermined parameters outlined in the buyback agreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Geely Automobile's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with core net profit 4% higher than the bank's forecast [1] Financial Performance - Geely's profit per vehicle increased by 15% quarter-on-quarter to 5,200 RMB [1] - The third-quarter performance was driven by scale effects, improved product mix, and expanded export contributions [1] Market Outlook - The bank notes that Geely's stock price increase this year is primarily due to profit upgrades rather than multiple expansions [1] - Management emphasized plans for new vehicle launches, autonomous driving (AD), and export strategies in the earnings meeting [1] - The bank is optimistic about stronger growth momentum in the upcoming fourth quarter and next year [1] Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 24 HKD [1]