摩根士丹利认为，吉利汽车的股价在未来15天内绝对值将会上涨，估计此情境实现概率约70%至80%(即 极有可能)，评级"增持"，目标价24港元。大摩指，公司第三季净利润达38亿元，毛利率16.6%，优于上 半年的16.4%，且前三季核心盈利106亿元，仍有望达成全年150亿元目标。考虑到2026年强劲的产品规 划项目，大摩认为目前未来12个月共识市盈率9倍的估值(相较两年平均10至11倍)提供具吸引力的风险 回报比。 ...

TOP10企业 分别是 国轩高科、南都电源、 亿纬锂能、三星、 赣锋锂电、 鹏辉能源 、 吉利、 中天储能、 派能科技、 LG。 -广告- 关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源 ：鑫椤锂电 据ICC鑫椤资讯统计，2025年 1 -9月 全球基站&数据中心备电 出货量 10GWh ，同比增长3%。 | EVE 亿纬锂能 | 亿纬锂能 | | --- | --- | | AMSUNG SAMSUNG SDI | 三星 | | GanfengLiEnergy | 赣锋锂电 | | GREAT POWER | 鹏辉能源 | | Y 耀宁科技 | 吉利 | | | 中天储能 | | જેટ | 派能科技 | | LG新能源 | LG | END ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Galaxy announced the launch of its luxury flagship MPV, the Galaxy V900, which will debut at the 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show on November 21. The vehicle is positioned as a mid-to-large MPV with an extended range powertrain, offering a maximum pure electric range of 202 km [1]. Group 1 - The Galaxy V900 features a large front grille integrated with split headlights and a continuous daytime running light above. It is equipped with a laser radar on the roof to support advanced intelligent driving assistance [3]. - The side profile of the vehicle is designed to be elegant and spacious, featuring smooth lines and a two-tone color scheme. It is expected to have hidden door handles to enhance aerodynamics and overall vehicle integrity [3]. - The vehicle is designed with electric sliding doors for easy passenger access, making it suitable for business or family travel scenarios [3]. Group 2 - The rear of the Galaxy V900 adopts a贯穿式 design with a refined internal structure for the light cavity, providing high recognition when illuminated. A large rear window enhances visibility for rear passengers and adds to the overall transparency of the rear [5]. - The dimensions of the vehicle are 5360 mm in length, 1998 mm in width, and 1940 mm in height, with a wheelbase of 3200 mm. It will offer two seating configurations: 6-seat and 8-seat layouts [5]. - The vehicle is powered by a 1.5T extended range power system, with a maximum speed of 190 km/h. Various pure electric range options are available, including 165 km, 172 km, 195 km, and 202 km [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by increased sales and an optimized product matrix [1][2]. Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 43% year-on-year to 239.5 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at 13.1 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, operating revenue rose by 48% quarter-on-quarter and 15% year-on-year to 89.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 56% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year to 3.82 billion yuan [1]. Development Trends - Sales volume surged by 46% year-on-year to 2.1702 million vehicles in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 2025 sales increasing by 43% quarter-on-quarter and 8% year-on-year to 761,000 vehicles [1]. - By brand, sales in Q3 2025 were 53,000 for Zeekr, 87,000 for Lynk & Co, and 327,000 for Galaxy, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 7%, 7%, and 13% respectively [1]. - The company is focusing on overseas markets, with Q3 2025 export sales increasing by 19% quarter-on-quarter to 112,000 vehicles [1]. Profitability and Quality Improvement - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year to 16.6%, benefiting from economies of scale and enhanced profitability of new energy vehicles [2]. - The company effectively managed expenses, with the combined sales, management, and research expense ratio decreasing by 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 12.4% [2]. Shareholder Returns and Product Upgrades - The company announced a large-scale share buyback plan in Q3 2025, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [2]. - The product strategy focuses on full-domain intelligence, with new models like the Galaxy A7 and Zeekr 9X set to launch in the second half of the year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a strong new car cycle and the ramp-up of models like Galaxy M9 and Lynk & Co 900, the company raised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 4.5% and 11.9% to 16.9 billion yuan and 19.7 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 times for 2025 and 8.0 times for 2026, with a target price of 26.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 51.2% from the current price [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Geely Automobile's net profit for the third quarter is 3.8 billion yuan, translating to a profit of approximately 5,000 yuan per vehicle, compared to 4,700 yuan in the first half of the year. This improvement in sales price and unit profit is primarily driven by changes in product mix and economies of scale [1] Financial Performance - Geely's third-quarter net profit is reported at 3.8 billion yuan, with a profit per vehicle of about 5,000 yuan, an increase from 4,700 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - The bank expects this trend of improved profitability to continue into the fourth quarter, leading to an upward revision of the profit forecast for the year by 12% [1] Strategic Outlook - Management has set an export target of 1 million units for next year, with an anticipated penetration rate of 50% for new energy vehicles [1] - The expected merger with the subsidiary Zeekr is anticipated to yield better synergies [1] Market Position - The bank forecasts that Geely will maintain resilience in its performance next year and reaffirms a target price of 23 Hong Kong dollars, with a rating of "highly confident to outperform the market" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (00175.HK) with a target price of HKD 26.00, indicating a potential upside of 51% from the current price [1][7]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile's Q3 2025 performance shows significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 89.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.82 billion, up by HKD 1.4 billion year-on-year and HKD 0.2 billion quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The company is entering a new product cycle with several competitive new models launched, including the Galaxy A7 and Galaxy M9, which are expected to drive sales growth. The sales volume in October reached 307,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's improved cost control, with a sales expense ratio of 6.0%, a management expense ratio of 1.5%, and a research and development expense ratio of 4.9% [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Geely Automobile are as follows: - 2024A: HKD 241.1 billion - 2025E: HKD 344.8 billion - 2026E: HKD 446.3 billion - 2027E: HKD 493.4 billion - The net profit projections are: - 2024A: HKD 16.6 billion - 2025E: HKD 17.8 billion - 2026E: HKD 24.0 billion - 2027E: HKD 27.2 billion [3][9]. Market Position and Valuation - Geely's valuation is considered low compared to its growth potential, with a projected PE ratio of 9x for 2025 and 7x for 2026. The report suggests that the current market pessimism presents a good investment opportunity [7][8]. - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from a recovery in the automotive market and an increase in overseas sales, with total sales expected to reach 3.04 million, 3.73 million, and 4.02 million units from 2025 to 2027, respectively [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Geely Automobile's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, driven by economies of scale, improved product mix, and expanded export contributions [1] Financial Performance - Core net profit for the period was 4% higher than the bank's forecast [1] - Profit per vehicle increased by 15% quarter-on-quarter to 5,200 HKD [1] Management Insights - During the earnings meeting, management emphasized the vehicle launch plan for next year, along with strategies for autonomous driving (AD) and exports [1] - The bank views these strategies positively and expects stronger growth momentum in the upcoming quarter and next year [1] Investment Rating - The bank maintains an "Overweight" rating on Geely, with a target price of 24 HKD [1]

摩根士丹利发表报告指，吉利汽车第三季收入890亿元，按季升15%，按年升26%，受销量按季升8%带 动，意味销售均价按季有中单位数扩张。纯利38亿元，按季升6%，按年升58%，略胜该行预期的37亿 元，并符市场预期。首三季核心纯利升59%至106亿元，正迈向全年150亿元的目标。该行予其"增持"评 级，目标价为24港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in China is projected to reach 33% by October 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points from 25% in October 2024, indicating strong growth in the sector driven by policy support and market demand [1][13]. New Energy Commercial Vehicle Penetration Rate - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has shown significant growth, reaching 27% in the first ten months of 2025, up from 20% in 2024 and 11% in 2023 [1][13]. - The penetration rates for trucks and buses are 24% and 72% respectively, both showing substantial increases compared to previous years [17]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 82,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 49% [2][11]. - From January to October 2025, total sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 2.55 million units, a 10% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [7][2]. Market Trends - The new energy commercial vehicle market has been characterized by strong growth, particularly from March to October 2025, with sales consistently at high levels [11][2]. - The overall commercial vehicle market has seen fluctuations, with a notable drop in January 2025 followed by a recovery in subsequent months [5][7]. Competitive Landscape - The commercial vehicle market is primarily supported by light truck manufacturers, with Foton and Wuling leading in sales [20][19]. - The heavy-duty truck segment has shown stability, with companies like FAW Jiefang and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group performing well [22][19]. Regional Market Dynamics - The eastern regions, particularly North China and South China, have shown strong performance in the light truck market, while the penetration of new energy heavy trucks is increasing in regions like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Southwest China [21][23]. - The light passenger vehicle market is dominated by manufacturers such as Jiangling Motors and SAIC-GM-Wuling, with emerging players like Geely making significant strides in the new energy segment [27][29].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower today, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,172.27 points, down 212.01 points, a decline of 0.80% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reported at 5,684.81 points, down 72.07 points, a decrease of 1.25% [2] Company Performance - XPeng Motors (09868.HK) saw a drop of over 7% in early trading. The company reported total revenue of RMB 20.38 billion for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%. The net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 380 million (USD 50 million), compared to RMB 1.81 billion in the same period last year [4] - Leap Motor (09863.HK) experienced a decline of over 2%. The company announced a net profit of RMB 150 million for Q3 2025, with a total net profit of RMB 180 million for the first three quarters. The gross margin for Q3 was 14.5%, up 0.9 percentage points from Q2 2025, with total vehicle deliveries of 173,852 units and revenue of RMB 19.45 billion, a year-on-year growth of 97.3% [6] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) reported Q3 2025 revenue of RMB 89.192 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 59% to RMB 3.82 billion [6] Sector Performance - The technology sector saw widespread declines, with Kuaishou, Tencent, NetEase, and Baidu all dropping over 1%. Alibaba opened down over 1% but quickly rebounded [7] - Insurance stocks opened lower, with AIA Group falling over 1%. Gold stocks also retreated, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zijin Mining down over 2% [7] - The biopharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, with BeiGene and Zai Lab rising over 4%. The semiconductor sector strengthened, with Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC both up over 1% [7] Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley has set a mid-to-long-term target for the Hang Seng Index at 27,500 points, with a bullish scenario reaching 34,700 points and a bearish scenario potentially dropping to 18,700 points. This outlook considers potential liquidity improvements, such as the Federal Reserve possibly halting balance sheet reduction in December, along with the anticipated "spring rally" early next year. However, external factors like Federal Reserve policies and U.S. stock market volatility remain significant variables [8]