Core Points - Renault Group plans to produce two new vehicles in Brazil in the second half of 2026, utilizing the platform from its Chinese partner Geely to expand in this high-growth market [1] - The two companies will invest 3.8 billion reais (approximately 713.9 million USD) in an industrial park in Brazil [1] - Renault did not clarify whether this investment is part of its previously announced four-year, 3 billion euro international development plan or an additional investment [1] - The manufacturers will create a new zero-emission technology platform, which will serve as the basis for another new Renault model set to launch in 2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to improve, with exports expected to become a new growth driver [2] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.68, 2.04, and 2.40 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.44 RMB and 24.62 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 11 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 179,204 in 2023 to 448,685 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5] - Operating profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 3,806 in 2023 to 23,173 in 2027, with significant growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to rise from 5,308 in 2023 to 24,318 in 2027, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, 2.5%, 20.9%, and 18.0% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 5.3% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to maintain a strong market share, with sales growth outpacing the industry average, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [10] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with exports anticipated to become a significant source of revenue and profit growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - Renault Group is set to produce two new cars in Brazil in the second half of 2026, leveraging the platform of its Chinese partner Geely's vehicles, indicating a strategic expansion in a high-growth market [1] Company Expansion - The production of the new vehicles in Brazil marks Renault's continued investment in emerging markets, particularly in regions with significant growth potential [1] Partnership Strategy - The collaboration with Geely highlights Renault's strategy to utilize partnerships to enhance its product offerings and market presence in Brazil [1]

Group 1 - Geely Holding Group was recognized as the "Leading Enterprise in Hybrid Power Control Technology Innovation" in the recent evaluation conducted by the China Automotive Intellectual Property Utilization Promotion Center [2] - Geely holds 161 authorized patents in hybrid power system control technology, with a comprehensive patent innovation index of 145.69 and a technical innovation score of 90, all ranking first in the industry [2] - The company launched the industry's first AI scenario engine-based power domain intelligent system, Starry AI Cloud Power 2.0, which enhances the Thunder God electric hybrid system to version 2.0, currently implemented in models like Geely Galaxy M9 and Galaxy A7 [2] Group 2 - Geely's Q3 financial report shows a revenue of 239.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with Q3 revenue reaching 89.2 billion yuan, up 27%, marking a new high for a single quarter [3] - The total R&D investment from January to September was 14.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase, with ongoing advancements in areas such as assisted driving, AI cockpit, AI electric hybrid, and satellite communication [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Geely Automobile Holdings with a target price of HK$26.60 [2][4][15]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve vehicle deliveries of 3.04 million, 3.52 million, and 3.97 million units for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with NEV penetration rates projected at 57%, 59%, and 66% [4][15]. - The report anticipates a core net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb16.40 billion, Rmb18.88 billion, and Rmb22.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -1%, 15%, and 19% respectively [4][15]. - The company is expected to fully realize synergies from its consolidation with ZEEKR by 2026, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency [6][18]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Geely reported revenue of Rmb89.19 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, while cumulative revenue for the first nine months reached Rmb239.48 billion, up 26% year-on-year [5][16]. - The core net profit for Q3 2025 was Rmb3.96 billion, a 19% increase year-on-year, with a total of Rmb10.62 billion for the first nine months, marking a 59% year-on-year growth [6][17]. - The company maintained a strong cash position with Rmb56.22 billion in cash at the end of September 2025, representing a 31% year-on-year increase [5][16]. Market Position and Strategy - Geely is positioned to achieve its 2025 sales target comfortably, with expectations of 3.04 million units sold, while ZEEKR's overseas sales are projected to grow by 50% to 80% [18][19]. - The report highlights that the company retains strategic advantages in NEV rollout, export expansion, and brand-mix upgrading, which are expected to support continued market share gains in a moderately growing industry [19].

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability, driven by strong sales and new product launches [2][3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 89.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 59.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2]. - Total sales volume reached 761,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9% [3]. Margins and Costs - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.6%, showing a year-on-year improvement due to scale effects and product mix enhancement [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.2% due to price competition and a higher proportion of lower-priced models [3]. Expenses and Other Income - The sales, research and administrative expense ratios were 6.0%, 4.9%, and 1.5% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.2%, +0.3%, and -0.6% [3]. - Other income for Q3 2025 was 950 million yuan, down 18.9% from the previous quarter, primarily due to a foreign exchange loss of 250 million yuan [3]. Future Outlook - The company raised its net profit forecast for 2025 to 18.1 billion yuan, up from the previous estimate of 15 billion yuan, while adjusting the 2026 and 2027 forecasts downwards due to potential policy impacts [4]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9, 8, and 6 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [4].

Core Insights - Geely Automobile Holdings Limited reported a record high revenue of 89.2 billion yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 27% year-on-year increase [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 reached 3.96 billion yuan, representing a 19% year-on-year growth [1] - For the first three quarters of the year, Geely's cumulative net profit was 10.62 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year, indicating robust profitability [1] Financial Performance - Q3 gross profit totaled 14.8 billion yuan, with an 11% increase from the previous quarter [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 16.5% [1] - As of the end of September, the company had a net cash level of 45.2 billion yuan, indicating strong cash reserves [1] Sales and Production - By the end of October, Geely had achieved a cumulative sales volume of 2.477 million vehicles, reaching 82.6% of its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles [1] - In Q4, Geely plans to launch several new and updated models, including the Geely Galaxy Star 6, to support the achievement of its annual sales target [1] Corporate Developments - The CEO of Geely confirmed that there are no legal obstacles remaining for the merger of Zeekr and Geely, with the completion of the overall transaction expected by the end of this year [1]

Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a record high revenue of 89.2 billion yuan for Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.96 billion yuan in Q3, a 19% increase year-on-year, with a total of 10.62 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 59% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Geely's profit per vehicle increased to 5,200 yuan, up from 4,700 yuan in the first half of the year [2] - The cumulative sales volume as of October 2025 reached 2.477 million units, a 44% year-on-year increase, achieving 83% of the annual target of 3 million units [2] Market Position and Competition - In October, Geely's sales growth rate reached 35%, with monthly sales exceeding 300,000 units, largely driven by the new "Geely Galaxy" brand, which accounted for over 40% of total sales [6] - Geely Galaxy achieved over 1 million cumulative sales in the first ten months, becoming the fastest domestic new energy brand to reach this milestone [7] - Geely's market share increased to over 11% in October, narrowing the gap with market leader BYD, whose market share decreased to 14% [7] Strategic Developments - Geely is actively expanding production capacity for the Galaxy brand, including plans to modify existing factories for increased output [7] - The company is pursuing international expansion, having entered markets such as the UK and Uzbekistan, and plans to significantly increase exports of new energy vehicles starting next year [8] Brand Strategy and Integration - Geely is shifting towards a "One Geely" strategy to consolidate its brands, with the integration of Lynk & Co and Zeekr brands underway [10] - The financial performance of Zeekr and Lynk & Co showed a total delivery of approximately 140,000 units in Q3, a 13% increase year-on-year, with revenue of about 31.6 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [9] - Zeekr's recent adjustments in sales channels and user engagement have led to a recovery in sales, with new models contributing to an increase in average price [12]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile has announced a share buyback agreement with Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, allowing for a maximum repurchase amount of HKD 2.3 billion [1] Group 1 - The share buyback will involve activities related to proprietary trading by the broker or its affiliates [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q3 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with total revenue of 89.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.82 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 59.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2] - The company achieved total sales of 761,000 units in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 16.6%, showing a year-on-year improvement due to scale effects and product mix enhancement, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline [2] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025 to 18.1 billion yuan (previously 15 billion yuan) due to strong sales performance in the first three quarters and the successful launch of new models [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 179.204 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.11%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 240.194 billion yuan, growing by 34.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 5.308 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 16.632 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 213.32% [1] Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 0.52 yuan per share, with a forecast of 1.64 yuan for 2024 and 1.79 yuan for 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 29.84 for 2023, decreasing to 9.52 for 2024 and further to 8.76 for 2025 [1] Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 325.928 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.04% [9] - The cash flow from operating activities for 2025 is expected to be 29.426 billion yuan, indicating a healthy cash generation capability [9]