Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [6] Core Views - The central bank emphasizes the implementation of previously announced financial policies to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on revitalizing existing assets and stabilizing market expectations [1] - The report suggests that the acceleration of supply in core cities and the easing of regulatory policies will likely enhance the progress of existing projects and land reserves, as well as urban renewal policies [1] - Recommended companies include distressed recovery firms such as Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity like Greentown China and China Jinmao, and local state-owned enterprises with stable diversified operations like Pudong Jinqiao and Waigaoqiao [1] Sales Review (9.20-9.26) - Total transactions in 32 monitored cities reached 16,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 15.1%; cumulative transactions for 2025 stand at 593,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [2][12] - First-tier cities recorded 4,816 transactions, up 3.4% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 169,000 units for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2][12] - Second-tier cities saw 9,563 transactions, a week-on-week increase of 24.5%, with a cumulative total of 353,000 units for 2025, down 8.9% year-on-year [2][12] - Third-tier cities had 1,453 transactions, up 2.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 70,000 units for 2025, down 6.7% year-on-year [2][12] Land Supply (9.15-9.21) - Planned residential land supply across 100 cities is 5.68 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 17.408 million square meters for 2025, down 16% year-on-year [3][37] - The average floor price for land supply across 100 cities is 6,879 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 5,264 yuan per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [3][39] Land Transactions (9.15-9.21) - Residential land transaction area across 100 cities is 4.75 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 13.908 million square meters for 2025, down 3.7% year-on-year [4][64] - The average transaction floor price for residential land across 100 cities is 3,433 yuan per square meter, down 50.5% week-on-week and down 50.3% year-on-year, with an overall premium rate of 2.8% [4][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].

Core Insights - The launch of the high-end residential project "Puyue" by China Jinmao and Yuexiu Property in Beijing's CBD highlights the increasing demand for luxury housing among high-net-worth clients, emphasizing location, design, and lifestyle [1][2][6] Group 1: Project Overview - "Puyue" is positioned as a model for high-end living in the CBD, combining Eastern aesthetics with international standards and artistic elements [1][2] - The project is strategically located in the Beijing CBD, surrounded by significant ecological resources, enhancing its value and appeal [4][6] Group 2: Target Audience - The primary demographic for the CBD luxury market consists of high-net-worth individuals born between 1985 and 1990, primarily from emerging industries such as e-commerce, AI, and renewable energy [6] - This demographic seeks not only financial stability but also a sense of belonging and wellness in their living environments [6] Group 3: Design and Aesthetics - The project integrates a unique design philosophy that emphasizes human-centric elements, blending Eastern and Western aesthetics to redefine high-end living in Beijing [7][8] - "Puyue" features a layout that promotes a garden-like atmosphere, with a focus on spaciousness and natural light, utilizing high-quality materials and craftsmanship [7][8] Group 4: Amenities and Services - The project includes a comprehensive service system that enhances the living experience, offering customized solutions and community engagement through various facilities [11] - The integration of advanced health technology and smart home systems aims to provide a comfortable and modern living experience [10][11] Group 5: Market Impact - The introduction of "Puyue" reflects a significant evolution in the luxury real estate market, showcasing innovative design, craftsmanship, and a holistic approach to high-quality living [13] - The project sets a new benchmark for high-end residential offerings in Beijing, combining international aesthetics with cultural depth and human care [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate stocks have shown a significant upward trend, driven by recent policy optimizations aimed at supporting reasonable housing demand across various cities in China [1] Company Performance - Country Garden saw an increase of over 5% in its stock price, while China Overseas Macro Group rose by 4% and Ronshine China by 3.5% [2] - Other notable performers include Vanke Enterprises, Longfor Group, and Oceanwide Holdings, each rising nearly 3%, and China Jinmao increasing by 2% [2] Policy Developments - Multiple cities in China have recently optimized real estate policies, including Dongguan offering a subsidy of 2% of the total purchase price for eligible homebuyers, capped at 30,000 yuan [1] - Sichuan is implementing a "one city, one policy" approach to stabilize the real estate market, while Guangzhou has introduced new policies allowing property companies to sell self-held housing [1] - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have adjusted their purchase restrictions, indicating a broader trend of policy support for the housing market [1] - New first-tier cities are reportedly studying the latest real estate policies to further stimulate housing demand and enhance purchase support [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market in August 2025 showed a narrowing year-on-year decline in transaction volume due to low base effects, while land auction premiums in first-tier cities reached a six-year high [1][2]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 6.5% and a relative return of -3.9% [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments in major cities to stimulate market activity, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4][24]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In August, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 859.1 million square meters, down 0.5% month-on-month and down 13.5% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 5.0% for the first eight months [14][17]. - First-tier cities experienced an expanded year-on-year decline in new home transactions, while second-tier cities saw a narrowing decline, and third- and fourth-tier cities turned positive [15][16]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 715.6 million square meters in August, down 9.2% month-on-month and down 6.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 7.5% for the first eight months [22][23]. - Year-on-year declines in second-hand home transactions narrowed in first- and second-tier cities, while third- and fourth-tier cities showed positive growth [23]. Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory increased month-on-month, with an overall absorption cycle of 17.1 months, down 0.3 months from the previous month [4][9]. - The average opening absorption rate in 30 cities improved to 42% in August, up 9 percentage points month-on-month and 13 percentage points year-on-year [4][9]. Land Market - Overall land auction activity declined month-on-month, but first-tier cities saw land premium rates reach a six-year high, averaging 22.3% [4][12]. - The average land floor price decreased by 13.4% month-on-month and 21.5% year-on-year [12]. Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a sales decline of 16.5% year-on-year in August, with a total sales amount of 225.6 billion yuan [4][12]. - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies increased by 34.9% year-on-year in August, although it decreased by 27.1% month-on-month [4][12]. Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month in August, with a total issuance of 55.3 billion yuan [4][12]. - The average issuance interest rate was 2.51%, showing a slight decrease compared to previous periods [4][12]. Policy - Recent policy adjustments in major cities aim to support the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal and easing purchase restrictions [4][24]. - The report highlights the significance of these policies in stabilizing market expectations and promoting demand [4][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate development sector is "Buy" for key companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Binhai Group, while "Hold" is given to companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development [6][35][60]. Core Insights - The real estate development sector's price-to-book ratio (PB) is 0.85, with a historical percentile of 31.46% as of September 19, 2025, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [1][11]. - The property service sector has a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 47.78, with a historical percentile of 75.95%, suggesting a higher valuation compared to historical averages [2][38]. - Recent policy changes in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have led to increased transaction volumes in the new housing market, particularly in Shanghai, where transaction intensity increased by 62.5% post-policy implementation [3][70]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development Sector - As of September 19, 2025, the real estate development sector has seen a 5.2% increase in stock prices from September 1 to September 19, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.05 percentage points [1][29]. - Key companies in the A-share market with the highest stock price increases include Binhai Group (+34.68%), New Town Holdings (+31.77%), and Huafa Group (+0.99%) [1][31]. - In the H-share market, China Jinmao (+63.25%), Jianfa International Group (+49.68%), and China Overseas Hongyang Group (+48.88%) led the gains [1][31]. Property Service Sector - The property service sector experienced a 4.1% increase from September 1 to September 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.97 percentage points [2][49]. - The top-performing A-share companies in the property service sector include Nandu Property (+67.33%), New Dazheng (+46.07%), and China Merchants Jinling (+14.70%) [2][55]. - In the H-share market, the leading companies were China Resources Vientiane Life (+52.36%), Jianfa Property (+42.22%), and Greentown Service (+35.34%) [2][55]. Policy Impact and Market Dynamics - Since August 2025, favorable policies have been introduced, including measures in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, which have significantly boosted new housing transactions [3][68]. - The average daily transaction volume for new homes in Shanghai surged by 62.5% following the policy changes, indicating a strong market response [4][70]. - The report highlights that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with core cities expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives [5][79].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, which is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][46] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.6%, the ChiNext Index by 2.1%, and the CSI 300 by 1.4%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 6.0% [6][9] - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Shoukai Co. (+57.0%), Suning Universal (+47.1%), Wolong New Energy (+28.1%), Xinda Zheng (+24.5%), and Heimu Dan (+20.9%) [6][9] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of September 6-12, 2025, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.54 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6% from the previous week [15] - For September up to the week of September 12, new housing transactions totaled 2.72 million square meters, an increase of 14.1% month-on-month but a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of September 6-12, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.96 million square meters, an increase of 13.5% from the previous week [29] - For September up to the week of September 12, second-hand housing transactions totaled 3.38 million square meters, an increase of 15.6% month-on-month and 21.5% year-on-year [33] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued guidelines to improve the quality of administrative law enforcement in housing construction [46] - The State Council emphasized the importance of high-quality completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with measures to enhance the convenience of real estate registration [46] - The report highlights that Guangdong Province has designated Guangzhou and Shenzhen as pilot cities for modular construction, with a trial period until the end of 2028 [46] Company Announcements - In August, New Town Holdings reported a sales amount of 1.58 billion yuan (down 37% year-on-year), while China Jinmao reported 9.077 billion yuan (up 46.5% year-on-year) [50] - China Jinmao's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 25.11 billion yuan, an increase of 14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.09 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year [50]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong real estate stocks continue to decline, with Country Garden down 8.7%, Jin Hui Holdings down 8%, and Zhongliang Holdings down 7% [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to August, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, with residential investment at 46,382 billion yuan, down 11.9% [1] - The funding for real estate development enterprises decreased by 8% year-on-year, with personal mortgage loans dropping by 10.5% [1] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that the current real estate data shows a comprehensive weakening, with both development investment and personal mortgage loans declining, confirming that the market is still in a deep adjustment period [1] - Recently, several key cities have introduced favorable policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, particularly in terms of easing purchase restrictions, with notable adjustments in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show a downward trend, with significant policy negotiations expected in September [3][4] - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment reached 60,309 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [3][39] - New housing starts and completion areas are at historically low levels, with new starts down 19.5% and completions down 17.0% year-on-year [55] Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Data - From January to August 2025, new housing sales area was 57,304 million square meters, down 4.7% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 55,015 billion yuan, down 7.3% [3][5] - In August alone, new housing sales revenue fell by 14.0% year-on-year, and sales area decreased by 10.6% [5] Price Trends - The average selling price of new residential properties was 9,600 yuan per square meter, down 2.7% year-on-year [19] - In August, the average price was 9,487 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [19] Investment and Funding - Real estate development investment for January to August 2025 was 60,309 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 12.9% [39] - Funding for real estate enterprises was 64,318 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year [39] Construction Activity - New housing starts were 39,801 million square meters, down 19.5% year-on-year, while completions were 27,694 million square meters, down 17.0% [55] - In August, new housing starts fell by 20.3% year-on-year, and completions decreased by 21.4% [55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the real estate sector is unlikely to see a trend-driven market due to the current fundamentals, but recent policy relaxations in major cities may provide opportunities [70] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group, Beike-W, and I Love My Home [70]

Core Insights - The high-end residential market in Shanghai remains strong, with significant sales recorded during the "Golden September" period, particularly at the Waibaidu Ruifu project, which sold 119 units for over 2.48 billion yuan on its opening day [1][3][5] Market Performance - The Waibaidu Ruifu project had an average price of 147,800 yuan per square meter, with a total of 200+ groups of clients participating in the selection process, leading to a subscription rate of approximately 168% [1][3] - Another project, Jinmao Puyuan, launched earlier with a higher average price of 166,000 yuan per square meter, selling out in just 26 minutes [3][4] Buyer Demographics - The buyer profile for Waibaidu Ruifu includes a significant portion of "new Shanghai residents," with only about 35% of buyers being local residents [4][5] - Non-local buyers from Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces accounted for over 60% of the total buyers, indicating a broader market appeal [4][5] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is intensifying due to a concentration of supply in the inner ring of Shanghai, with multiple high-end projects set to launch soon [6][7] - Upcoming projects include Taikoo Land's Lujiazui Taikoo Source, which has already seen high subscription rates, and other notable developments in the Danning area [6][7] Pricing Trends - The market is experiencing upward pressure on prices, with expectations of price increases for upcoming launches due to sustained demand and limited supply [5][6] - The recent record-breaking pricing for new developments, such as Jinling Huating, which has a unit price of 326,800 yuan per square meter, reflects the premium nature of the current market [10][12] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions, including favorable stock market performance and new housing policies, may lead to improved sales figures in the upcoming months [13]