Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the second-hand housing market in September shows a mixed performance, with transaction volume declining month-on-month but increasing year-on-year, suggesting ongoing market weakness [1][2]. Transaction Volume and Price Trends - In September, the transaction volume index for second-hand residential properties in 80 cities decreased by 10% month-on-month but increased by 19% year-on-year (Q3 +19%, Q2 +17%) [1]. - The registered transaction area in 15 cities rose by 6% month-on-month and grew by 9% year-on-year (Q3 +3%, Q2 +11%) [1]. - The price index for homogeneous second-hand residential properties fell by 1.7% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.7%, Q2 average -1.4%) [1]. - The negotiation space for transactions increased by 25 basis points to 8.91% [1]. Listing Trends - The number of second-hand residential listings in 130 cities increased by 0.4% month-on-month, continuing a slight upward trend [2]. - The price index for homogeneous listings in key cities decreased by 1.5% month-on-month (Q3 average -1.3%, Q2 average -1.2%) [2]. - The average adjustment for listed properties was -5.24%, indicating a conservative price expectation among sellers [2]. Rental Market Insights - The rental index for homogeneous listings decreased by 0.8% month-on-month (August -0.5%) [3]. - The average rental period remained stable at 2.12 months [3]. - The rental-to-sale ratio increased by 2 basis points to 2.33% due to declining listing prices [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the real estate and property management sectors, particularly in companies with solid fundamentals and profit quality such as China Resources Land, Jianfa International, and others [4]. - It also recommends considering undervalued stocks like Greentown China and New Town Holdings, given potential liquidity improvements [4]. - The report highlights the importance of identifying stocks with strong growth prospects or attractive dividend yields across various sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that CR Mixc, a shopping mall under China Resources Land (01109), recorded low single-digit same-store sales growth during the golden period, leading to an overall retail revenue increase of over 25% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - CR Mixc's same-store sales growth contributed to a retail revenue increase of over 25% year-on-year, with high-end malls experiencing same-store sales growth exceeding 20% [1] - Year-to-date, the same-store sales growth is recorded at low single digits year-on-year, while overall retail revenue for the first nine months has grown by 20% to 25% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Rental Income and Market Position - The company is expected to exceed management's original rental income forecast, achieving a 13% year-on-year growth [1] - The growth is attributed to the expanding market share of CR Mixc, which continues to outperform its peers [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendation - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock, with a target price set at HKD 39.3 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that CR Mixc, a shopping mall under China Resources Land, recorded low single-digit same-store sales growth during the Golden Week, contributing to an overall retail sales increase of over 25% year-on-year for the mall [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The same-store sales growth for high-end malls exceeded 20% year-on-year [1] - The growth is attributed partly to the overlap of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, but CR Mixc's performance outpaced its peers due to its expanding market share [1] - Year-to-date same-store sales growth is recorded at low single digits, while overall retail sales for the first nine months of the year increased by 20% to 25% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Revenue Expectations - The company is expected to exceed management's original forecast for annual rental income, projecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Morgan Stanley continues to list the stock as a preferred pick with a target price of HKD 39.3 and maintains an "Overweight" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the construction of "good houses," marking a shift towards high-quality residential development, which is reshaping the market landscape in Hangzhou post-price control era [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition for high-quality residential products is intensifying, with Hangzhou entering a "land king" era by the second half of 2025, leading to a refresh in product capabilities and transaction price ceilings [1] - Major projects like the "Yuanqi Guanchaofu" are gaining attention as they embody the "good house strategy," which aims to lead residential innovation through central projects [3] Group 2: Company Strategy - China Resources Land has been active in Hangzhou for 20 years, adopting a strategy of "epoch-making" contributions to the city, which is evident in their recent project launches [1][3] - The company is focusing on "central narrative" in its developments, as seen in the Xi'an CCBD project, which integrates various urban functions and reflects a deep understanding of urban development [5] Group 3: Project Highlights - The Xi'an Three Centers project, which includes the International Conference Center and the International Exhibition Center, aims to enhance both urban and living values through large-scale events [7] - Upcoming projects like the West Lake Lotus Pool TOD project are set to redefine the area, integrating transportation and urban development to create a new growth hub in West Lake District [18][20] Group 4: Future Vision - The West Lake Lotus Pool TOD project is positioned as a comprehensive living solution, aiming to redefine regional consumption and lifestyle, moving beyond traditional residential offerings [20] - The company believes that even in a decentralized era, urban development will still require central leadership, which will be driven by continuous upgrades and iterations from China Resources Land [22]

Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's real estate investment has shown new characteristics, with a significant year-on-year increase of 36.7% in land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies, amounting to 727.8 billion yuan [1][5] - The land acquisition is highly concentrated among state-owned enterprises, indicating an increasing industry concentration and a pronounced "Matthew Effect" [1][5] - Mergers and acquisitions have become an important method for real estate companies to acquire quality land in core cities, despite a cautious overall investment attitude in the market [1][9] Land Acquisition Trends - The top 10 companies in land acquisition include 8 state-owned enterprises, with notable performances from private companies like Binjiang Group and Bangtai Group [5] - The top three companies by new value added are Greentown China, Poly Development, and China Overseas Property, with respective values of 117.5 billion yuan, 101 billion yuan, and 95.2 billion yuan [5] - The market concentration has significantly increased, with the top 10 and top 20 companies accounting for 56.2% and 68.6% of land acquisition amounts, respectively, marking increases of 14.8 and 13.7 percentage points compared to the end of last year [5] Mergers and Acquisitions - Since the third quarter, several companies have engaged in large-scale acquisitions through joint ventures, focusing on high-value land in core urban areas [9] - Notable transactions include a consortium led by China Resources Land acquiring two projects in Shanghai for 24.47 billion yuan, and another consortium acquiring a city renewal project in Shanghai for 15.478 billion yuan, with a total transaction value of 43.95 billion yuan, setting a record for residential land sales in China [9] Market Dynamics - The investment focus remains on cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, with high competition for premium land parcels [10] - In September, significant land sales in Beijing and Shanghai reached 7.2 billion yuan and 7.9 billion yuan, respectively, with all top transactions being led by state-owned enterprises [10] - Despite some recovery in sales in certain cities, the overall investment remains cautious, with many top companies not acquiring new land, indicating a continued trend of market differentiation [11]

Core Insights - In September 2025, Chengdu's new residential property supply reached approximately 212 million square meters, with transactions around 143 million square meters, indicating a month-on-month increase of 152.2% in supply and 13.8% in transactions [15] - The cumulative sales amount for the top 30 real estate companies in Chengdu from January to September 2025 was approximately 1359.7 billion yuan, with a total transaction area of about 646.6 million square meters [4][6] - The top three companies in terms of sales amount in Chengdu were China Railway Construction Real Estate, China Resources Land, and Chengdu Rail Transit City, each exceeding 100 billion yuan in sales [4][6] Market Performance - In September, the supply of residential properties was approximately 121.9 million square meters, with a transaction volume of about 84.9 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 113.9% in supply and a 4.9% year-on-year increase in cumulative transactions [17] - The total cumulative supply of residential properties in Chengdu from January to September 2025 was 1351.7 million square meters, with total transactions of 1413.7 million square meters [15] Land Transactions - In September, Chengdu launched 21 residential land plots, with 13 successfully sold, resulting in an overall premium rate of 5.5% [19] - The market for second-hand homes also saw an increase in transaction volume, remaining the main driver of market activity, with transaction areas 2.2 times that of new homes [19] Policy Developments - On September 9, Chengdu issued a public consultation announcement regarding supplementary regulations to the "Technical Regulations for Urban Planning Management in Chengdu (2024)," aimed at regulating previous non-standard practices in property gifting and ensuring the overall quality of residential projects [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [32]. Core Insights - The alpha of real estate stocks depends on the precision of land acquisition, with the current macroeconomic environment not supporting a general rise in housing prices, making it challenging for companies to ensure project profitability [6][7]. - The value of real estate stocks is derived from the discounted future residual earnings, which are based on the profitability of each project, ultimately reflecting on ROE and valuation [6][7]. - The report highlights that the market for new homes is contracting, and the effective market area for new homes is shrinking, complicating the identification of valuable land parcels [7][24]. - The report suggests that future sector opportunities will primarily arise from improved land acquisition comfort for real estate companies, transitioning from a contracting to an expanding market [24]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.623 billion and a circulating market value of 1,183.334 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 7.6%, 16.6%, and 3.4% respectively, while the relative performance is 4.4%, -1.9%, and -12.1% [3]. Project Profitability and Market Dynamics - The profitability of real estate companies is increasingly dependent on project-level earnings, with past profits driven by rising property prices and a focus on debt leverage [6][7]. - The report notes that the supply of quality land has increased, leading to heightened competition among projects, and some older projects may face challenges in sales due to new building regulations [7][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that have demonstrated precise land acquisition over the past three years, such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Jianfa International Group, while also monitoring companies like China Overseas Grand Oceans and China Jinmao for improvements in land acquisition in the latter half of 2024 [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a recovery in the real estate market sales in September, with a total sales amount of 26,065.9 billion yuan for the top 100 real estate companies in the first nine months, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.2%, but the decline rate has narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first eight months [1] - In September, the monthly sales of the top 100 real estate companies increased by 11.9% month-on-month, with companies like CIFI, Binjiang, Jinmao, and Poly Real Estate showing strong sales performance [1] - The top five companies by sales amount in the first three quarters are Poly Development, Greentown China, China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, and China Merchants Shekou, with total sales amounts of 201.7 billion yuan, 178.5 billion yuan, 170.5 billion yuan, 154.4 billion yuan, and 140.66 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 2 - The China Index Academy believes that future policies will maintain a loose tone, focusing on the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" and accelerating the implementation of various policies already introduced [1] - It is expected that the supply of new homes in core cities may see a mild improvement, providing some support to the market, although new projects in more cities are limited, indicating that market differentiation will continue [1]

Core Insights - The total land acquisition amount by the top 100 enterprises in the first three quarters reached 727.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.7%, with the growth rate expanding by 8.7 percentage points compared to the first eight months [1] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - In September, several real estate companies acquired large-scale land through acquisitions, leading to an increase in the year-on-year growth of land acquisition amounts [1] - Among the top 10 enterprises by land acquisition amount, 8 are state-owned enterprises [1] Group 2: New Value Addition - In terms of new value added, Greentown China, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Land & Investment ranked as the top three [1] - Greentown China topped the list with a new value of 117.5 billion yuan, followed by Poly Developments with 101 billion yuan, and China Overseas with 95.2 billion yuan [1] - The total new value added by the top 100 enterprises in the first three quarters amounted to 763.8 billion yuan, accounting for 42.5% of the total [1] Group 3: Key Players in Major Cities - State-owned enterprises and local state-owned assets remain the main players in land acquisition among the top 10 enterprises in key cities, while private enterprises are only supplementing land reserves in key areas [1]