| 保险 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 27.40 | 港元 36.00 | +31.4% | | | 新华保险 (1336 HK) | | | | | | 交银国际研究 公司更新 资产、负债两端增长强劲，需关注净资产下降；维持买入 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 71,547 | 132,555 | 131,771 | 136,587 | 140,751 | | 同比增长 (%) | -33.8 | 85.3 | -0.6 | 3.7 | 3.0 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 8,712 | 26,229 | 23,506 | 24,875 | 26,066 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 2.79 | 8.41 | 7.53 | 7.97 | 8.35 | | 同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 56.5 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 5.9 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19%. The New Business Value (NBV) grew by 67.9% year-on-year, indicating strong new policy growth [2][8]. - The annualized total and comprehensive investment returns were 5.7% and 2.8%, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +1.1 percentage points and -3.9 percentage points [2][8]. - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company's net assets reached 79.8 billion CNY, a decrease of 17% compared to the end of the previous year [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 132,555 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 85.3%. However, a decline of 12.4% is expected in 2025 [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 26,229 million CNY, with a significant year-on-year growth of 201.1%, but a decline of 24.0% is anticipated for 2025 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 8.4 CNY in 2024, decreasing to 6.4 CNY in 2025, and gradually increasing to 7.6 CNY by 2027 [4]. Business Development Insights - The company experienced a strong growth in new business, with long-term insurance first-year premiums increasing by 150% year-on-year to 27.2 billion CNY in Q1 2025. The overall premium income from individual insurance channels rose by 12% to 44.6 billion CNY [2][8]. - The individual insurance channel's new business value rate has declined, which may be influenced by the structure of payment periods and product pricing strategies [2][8]. - The company’s investment assets totaled 1.69 trillion CNY as of Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [2][8]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the company’s performance is driven by both underwriting and investment activities, projecting double-digit growth in earnings. The EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are maintained at 6.4 CNY, 6.9 CNY, and 7.6 CNY, respectively [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 36.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of HKD 27.40 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth in both assets and liabilities, but there is a need to monitor the decline in net assets. The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year profit growth of 19%, outperforming peers, primarily driven by investment income [2][7]. - Premium income increased by 28% year-on-year, mainly from individual insurance and bancassurance channels, contributing 11.9 and 16.5 percentage points to the growth, respectively [7]. - New business value grew by 67.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, with individual and bancassurance new business premiums increasing by 133% and 95%, respectively [7]. - Total investment income rose significantly by 44% year-on-year, with an annualized total investment return of 5.7%, up by 1.1 percentage points [7]. - The solvency ratio improved significantly, with the core solvency adequacy ratio at 184%, an increase of 60 percentage points from the beginning of the year [7]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to be 71,547 in 2023, increasing to 132,555 in 2024, and then slightly decreasing to 131,771 in 2025E [3][14]. - Net profit (in million RMB) is expected to be 8,712 in 2023, rising to 26,229 in 2024, and then decreasing to 23,506 in 2025E [3][14]. - Earnings per share (in RMB) are projected to be 2.79 in 2023, increasing to 8.41 in 2024, and then decreasing to 7.53 in 2025E [3][14]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 9.2 in 2023, dropping to 3.1 in 2024, and then slightly increasing to 3.4 in 2025E [3][14]. - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 1,403,257 million RMB in 2023 to 1,921,549 million RMB in 2025E [14][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has seen a significant increase in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 26.1% attributed to enhanced investment income. The investment income reached 20.9 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 44.3%, contributing 62.6% to total revenue, which led to a 19.0% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][3] - The company is focusing on transforming its product structure, particularly in promoting mid-to-short term premium payment insurance products, resulting in a 28.0% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income to 73.22 billion yuan. The first-year premium income for long-term insurance saw a remarkable growth of 149.6% [2][3] - The company achieved an annualized total investment return of 5.7% in the first quarter, with a net investment yield of 2.8%, reflecting a 3.9% year-on-year decline due to pressure on fixed-income assets [3] Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 132.75 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.15% from 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 25.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.56% from 2024 [4][8] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 8.28 yuan, with a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratio of 0.52 [4][8]

Group 1 - China Life and Xinhua Insurance are collaborating to establish a private equity fund with a scale of 20 billion yuan, named Guofeng Xinghua Honghu Zhi Yuan Phase II, focusing on large listed companies that meet the criteria in the CSI A500 index [1] - In February 2024, China Life and Xinhua Insurance jointly established the Honghu Zhi Yuan Fund with a total scale of 50 billion yuan, marking it as the first insurance capital private equity securities investment fund in China [1] - As of April 29, 2025, a total of 216 private equity A500 index enhancement products have been registered, with 80.56% of them being from 54 large private equity firms, totaling 174 products [1] Group 2 - The enthusiasm for registering private equity A500 index enhancement products has increased significantly in 2025, with 164 products registered, accounting for 75.93% of the total [2] - Large private equity firms are the main contributors to the registrations, with 17 firms registering 141 products, which represents 85.98% of the total registered private equity A500 index enhancement products [2] - The top three firms in terms of registration numbers are Black Wing Asset, Kuan De Private Equity, and Century Frontier, with 38, 37, and 16 products registered respectively [2]

公告显示，该基金投资范围为中证A500指数成份股中符合条件的大型上市公司A+H股。 | A股股票代码:601336 | A股股票简称:新华保险 编号:2025-026号 | | --- | --- | | H股股票代码: 01336 | H股股票简称:新华保险 | 上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 险资入市又有了新进展。 4月29日晚，新华保险公告称，公司拟出资不超过100亿元认购由国丰兴华（北京）私募基金管理有限公司发起 设立的私募基金的份额。该基金成立规模为200亿元，新华保险与中国人寿拟各出资100亿元认购私募基金份 额。 险资再出手 新华保险公告显示，为积极响应国家推动中长期资金入市的政策理念，贯彻长期投资理念，通过低频交易、长 期持有的方式以获得稳健股息收益，提升长期投资回报，实现资金保值增值，公司拟出资不超过100亿元认购 由国丰兴华发起设立的私募基金的份额。 据悉，国丰兴华由新华保险控股子公司新华资产管理股份有限公司与中国人寿资产管理公司共同出资设立，分 别持有国丰兴华50%股权。 据了解，该私募基金的名称暂定为国丰兴华鸿鹄志远二期私募证 ...

港股保险股持续走强，友邦保险(01299.HK)涨超5%，新华保险(01336.HK)、中国人寿(02628.HK)涨超 2%，中国财险(02328.HK)、中国太平(00966.HK)跟涨。 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险Ⅱ 新华保险（601336） 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 2025 年一季报点评：新单保费、NBV、净利 润均表现亮眼 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 71547 | 132555 | 138052 | 143499 | 149352 | | 同比（%） | -33.8% | 85.3% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 8712 | 26229 | 29196 | 30229 | 31352 | | 同比（%） | -59.5% | 201.1% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | | EV（元/股） | 80.30 | 82.85 | 90.72 | 99.66 | 109.66 | | PEV | 82 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows strong growth in new business premiums, NBV, and net profit, with a notable increase in new business value by 67.9% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights a significant rise in first-year premiums for long-term insurance, with a 149.6% increase year-on-year, indicating effective strategies in both individual and bank insurance channels [8] - The overall market valuation remains low, with the current market cap corresponding to a 2025E PEV of 0.52x and PB of 1.41x, suggesting potential for growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported an operating income of 33.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 5.88 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.0% [8] - The company's net assets stood at 79.8 billion yuan, down 17.0% from the beginning of the year [8] - The annualized total investment return was 5.7%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the annualized comprehensive investment return was 2.8%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been slightly adjusted upwards for 2025-2027, now projected at 29.2 billion, 30.2 billion, and 31.4 billion yuan respectively [8] - The report emphasizes the company's strategy to deepen supply-side reforms and capitalize on opportunities in health, retirement, and wealth management sectors [8]

投资建议：维持公司强烈推荐评级。公司NBV 和保费快速增长、投资稳健推动利润双位数增长；在报 行合一推进、预定利率下调等贡献下NBV 有望保持在当前增速水平，同时公司24 年末权益配置占比显 著高于同业，市场回暖下利润增速或继续提升。预计25-27 年公司归母净利润301.8、331.7、360.6 亿 元，增速分别为+15.1%、+9.9%、+8.7%；NBV（新假设）分别为80.1、90.1、97.1 亿元，增速为 +28.1%、+12.4%、+7.8%，当前股价对应25-27E 的P/EV 倍数为0.53/0.49/0.46 倍。 风险提示：权益市场波动、分红险销售难度加大、队伍转型不及预期。 个银渠道期交同比翻倍，推动NBV 大幅增长。1Q25 公司期交保费收入194.7亿元 /yoy+117.3%，其中个 险/银保渠道期交保费规模分别118.9 亿元/74.2 亿元，yoy+133.4% /+94.5%，各渠道增长较快预计因公司 丰富产品供给、个险绩优队伍建设成效显著、银保合作网点拓宽等。但预计个险和银保NBVM 有所分 化，1Q25 银保趸交保费76.4 亿元 /yoy+324.5%，占新单比重达 ...