完成双线布局后，理想重回"创业模式" 从理想ONE到理想L系列，增程路线为理想汽车打开了家庭用车市场的大门；而随着理想MEGA与理想i 系列构建起完整的纯电矩阵，并且MEGA在高端市场取得突破，理想i8和i6累计订单也突破10万辆，理 想汽车终于实现了"两条腿走路"。当增程和纯电双能源形式的产品布局正式成型，理想汽车的"上一个 十年"完美收官，是时候全身心投入下一个战场了。 于是，理想汽车做出了企业愿景的升级——要成为"全球领先的具身智能企业"。企业愿景的转变意味着 产品定位的根本性变革，从此汽车不再是单纯的交通工具，也不是简单的智能终端，而是物理世界中的 具身智能机器人。李想对此有着深刻的思考："电动车的选择不是不好，而是不够；智能终端的选择也 不是不好，而是不够；只有选择具身智能这个最难的题，我们才可以真正改变用户的生活。" 愿景升级，必然倒逼组织进化。从2025年第四季度起，理想果断回归"创始人模式"：李想亲自掌管产 品、公司战略、人才管理，将决策链条大幅缩短。过去三年，理想曾努力向职业经理人模式靠拢，但实 践证明，"我们变成了越来越差的自己"李想说。在AI技术高速迭代、行业格局未定的当下，这种强调流 ...

该行下调公司2025-27财年预测年销量6%、25%及30%，下调非 GAAP 净利润预测48%、49%及55%， 反映当前L系列竞争压力上升，明年推出大改款前将面临4个月产品周期走弱的挑战。公司现金流充 裕、团队能力强，但执行效果尚需观察。预计未来四个月公司基本面缺乏强劲催化剂。 招商证券发布研报称，将理想汽车-W(02015)目标价从115港元下调36%至74港元，评级由"增持"下调 至"中性"。理想第三季归母净亏损6.25亿元人民币，为三年来首次，低于市场预期的盈利4.4亿元人民 币，主要受MEGA召回影响，若剔除该影响则基本符合预期。 ...

该行下调公司2025-27财年预测年销量6%、25%及30%，下调非 GAAP 净利润预测48%、49%及55%， 反映当前L系列竞争压力上升，明年推出大改款前将面临4个月产品周期走弱的挑战。公司现金流充 裕、团队能力强，但执行效果尚需观察。预计未来四个月公司基本面缺乏强劲催化剂。 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，将理想汽车-W(02015)目标价从115港元下调36%至74港元， 评级由"增持"下调至"中性"。理想第三季归母净亏损6.25亿元人民币，为三年来首次，低于市场预期的 盈利4.4亿元人民币，主要受MEGA召回影响，若剔除该影响则基本符合预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in vehicle deliveries and financial performance [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 27.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - Net loss reached 624 million RMB, a stark contrast to a net profit of 2.8 billion RMB in the same period last year [2][3]. - Vehicle sales revenue fell by 37.4% to 25.9 billion RMB, with a vehicle gross margin dropping from 20.9% to 15.5% [3][4]. Delivery and Production - Total vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025 were 93,211 units, down 39.0% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive quarter below 100,000 units [2][4]. - The company anticipates Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% to 37.0% [5]. Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was -7.4 billion RMB, compared to 11 billion RMB in the same period last year [4]. - Free cash flow also deteriorated to -8.9 billion RMB from a positive 9.1 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to reduced cash receipts from customers and increased inventory payments [4]. Product and Market Position - Despite challenges, the company reported over 100,000 orders for the Li i8 and i6 models, with the i6 positioned competitively in the market [4]. - The Li i6, launched in September, features a starting price of 249,800 RMB and offers competitive specifications, including a 720 km range [4]. Future Outlook - For the full year 2025, the expected total vehicle deliveries are projected to be between 397,000 and 407,000 units, a decline of approximately 20% from 2024 [5].

New Car Launches - Leap Motor Lafa5 launched with a limited-time price of 92,800-116,800 yuan, featuring a compact design and advanced technology including a 600km range and laser radar assistance [2][12] - Xpeng ET5 launched with a limited-time replacement price of 134,900-149,900 yuan, emphasizing configuration and cost-effectiveness, with a 210km electric range [12][21] - New Mercedes EQE launched with prices ranging from 478,000 to 627,000 yuan, maintaining a luxurious design and advanced features [22][30] Company Dynamics - NIO reported Q3 revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, a 16.7% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 13.9%, the highest in three years [31][34] - Hesai Technology launched a high-performance intelligent control chip for laser radar, achieving full self-research capabilities across key components [35][39] - Li Auto reported Q3 revenue of 27.4 billion yuan, with a delivery guidance of 100,000 to 110,000 vehicles for Q4, while facing increased competition in the extended-range vehicle segment [40][46] - Pony.ai achieved single-vehicle profitability in its Robotaxi business, with a revenue increase of 72% year-on-year [47][52] - Avita submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to accelerate its growth in the smart vehicle market [53][60] - XPeng's flying car project has successfully produced its first land carrier vehicle, indicating a significant step towards mass production [61][66] - Tesla has deployed millions of self-developed AI chips, planning to release a new chip annually, enhancing its technological leadership [68][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the coming quarters [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to stabilize in Q4 2025, with potential upward movement in Q1 2026, driven by policy direction, profit expectations, and valuation adjustments [1]. - Recent retail performance has been subdued due to the impact of trade-in incentives, and the Guangzhou Auto Show has had limited effect on new car sales [1]. - The report highlights the rebound of state-owned enterprises in vehicle manufacturing, influenced by catalyst factors [1]. Data Tracking - In late November, the discount rate for vehicles increased slightly to 10.1%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [3]. - October wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [3]. - Retail sales in October were 2.09 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.2% and a month-on-month decline of 6.4% [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 3.33%, ranking 11th among sectors [9]. - The overall market indices also showed positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.54% [9]. Industry News - As of October 2025, the automotive industry reported a profit of 389.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with total revenue reaching 8,877.8 billion yuan [29]. - The inventory level for passenger vehicles at the end of October was 3.41 million units, indicating a seasonal increase in stock [29]. - New energy vehicle company Li Auto announced plans to release AI-powered accessories, indicating a trend towards integrating advanced technology in vehicles [29].

本文仅侧重李想对投资人措辞方式的变化，明天分析李想在25Q3上画的饼。 2024年4月18日李想在L6发布会上开头说："增程式电动车的这个决定在很长一段时间让我成为了笑 柄，专家普遍不认同，行业和媒体也不理解，消费者也不明白。我们也成为了融资最难的造车新势力 企业，大多投资人说我看好李想你这个人，只要你做纯电放弃增程，我就会立刻投资你，但是我就是 想造这样一款车，我要为自己和用户造车，而不是为资本市场造车。 " 即话语层面侧重其他人如何不理解自己的远见，自己是给用户造车，不给资本市场造车。 2024年7月1日发布的理想九周年长文里，TOP2指出李想表示要对这个世界进行很好的沟通，升维自 己的沟通方式是这篇长文里最值得留意的1个地方。详见《 理想九周年长文里最值得留意的1个地方 》 加微信，进群深度交流理想实际经营情况与长期基本面。不是车友群。 2024年4月8日TOP2指出 李想需要做的是，保留自己本质的前提下，与这个世界共赢相处。而不是 改变自己的本质，被世界驯化。 2025年8月19日播出的罗永浩与李想的长对话里，李想说"我每个时间都会反思一下，也会跟团 队讨论一下，就是把我的很多棱角打磨掉，到底是个好事 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 | 乘用车 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 i6 及 L 系列改款有望助力 2026 年公司国内销量增长，公司亦加快出口布局。1、国 内：1）截至 11 月 1 日，i6 订单已超过 7 万辆，截至 10 月累计交付约 6 千辆，从 11 月起，为解决产能爬坡问题，i6 电池将启用双供应商模式，预计明年年初 i6 月产 能将稳步提升到 2 万辆。2）此外，公司预计明年还将推出增程 L 系列大改款，①会 回归精简的 SKU 模式，兼顾市场的覆盖和供应的效率。希望实现核心体验全系拉满， 彻底消除入门版体验打折的痛点；②设计方面，会延续家族的经典设计基因，同时 强化豪华质感的升级，平衡品牌的高辨识度以及用户体验的新鲜感，打造更加贴合 家庭需求的产品形态；③技术方面，全系会标配 5C 超充技术，能和现在的纯电超充 网络更好协同，更好地解决补能的焦虑。2、出口：理想增程系列车型亦正加快出海， 10 月公司在乌兹别克斯坦开设了海外首家授权零售中心，面向当地市场销售理想 L9、L7 和 L6，11 月哈萨克斯坦的两家零售中心也将陆续开业。公司会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company faced significant challenges in Q3 due to a decline in sales and the Mega recall, resulting in a quarterly loss. Q3 sales were 93,200 units, down 39% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, with revenue decreasing 36% year-on-year to 27.4 billion yuan [1]. - The company is shifting back to a startup management model, focusing on user value and efficiency, while also planning to launch an AI system based on its self-developed M100 chip by 2026 [2]. - The i6 model is expected to alleviate supply chain capacity constraints, with production capacity projected to reach 20,000 units per month by early 2026 [3]. Financial Summary - Q3 gross margin was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the Mega recall costs and increased unit manufacturing costs [1]. - The company forecasts Q4 vehicle deliveries between 100,000 and 110,000 units, with revenue expected to be between 26.5 billion and 29.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.2% to 40.1% [1]. - For the years 2025-2027, the company anticipates sales of approximately 410,000, 590,000, and 700,000 units, with total revenues reaching 112.2 billion, 148.3 billion, and 182.4 billion yuan respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a net loss of 625 million yuan in Q3, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 360 million yuan, translating to a Non-GAAP net loss margin of 1.3% [1]. - The projected GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 1.1 billion, 5.3 billion, and 8.1 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit margins of 1.0%, 3.5%, and 4.4% [3]. - The report indicates a target market capitalization of 163.1 billion yuan, with a target price of approximately 84 HKD per share [3].

2025年11月29日理想整车电动产品负责人唐华寅表示已经有国际大牌碳化硅芯片供应商和理想研发团 队联系获取技术IP和合作机会。 理想碳化硅芯片 用户价值： 1.自研电机/碳化硅电控系统/碳化硅芯片带来30公里续航提升。 2.支持整车高压网络从400V平台向更高的800V电压平台转变，达成更快的充电速度。 3.更快的开关速度支持了更精细的电机电流控制，降低了电磁噪声，提升了驾乘静谧性 。 4.碳化硅功率模块像车辆动力系统的心脏，通过它，电驱动系统将电池提供的直流电转变为电机所需 的交流电，从而输出动力。 行业因电流能力不足，为了降低通道电阻，选择浅PN结设计，导致极限工况下脆弱 。得益于电流能 力的富余，理想采用2倍能量注入的超深PN结，面对1000安培短路电流也能稳健夹断，测试通过率超 99.9% 。 行业为了压榨性能，不得不追求极致的光刻线宽，导致工艺容错率极低 。理想依靠元胞架 构的高通道优势，不再依赖极限线宽，将工艺制造窗口扩大了50%，显著提升了可制造性与良品率 。 5.耐压高、导热好、损耗低，显著减少电驱动系统的重量、体积。（从而有可以把省下来的重量体积 给其他配置） 6.基于长期大量测试数据，较 ...