1月27日，由昆明市房地产开发与经济协会主办的《2025年度昆明房地产行业蓝皮书》发布会顺利举行。会议系统回顾了过去一年昆明房地产行业的转型路 径与发展成果，并对在行业革新中表现卓越、勇于担当的企业及项目予以表彰。万科作为行业代表受邀出席，与各界共同探讨未来市场发展趋势。 凭借在推动城市高质量发展方面的持续贡献，万科在本次年度评选中荣膺"2025年度昆明高质量发展企业"称号。这一荣誉不仅是对企业综合实力的认可，更 是对其深耕昆明、与城市发展同频共振的长期承诺的肯定。 同时，旗下项目万科·500里丨桂语东方在市场表现上亦十分亮眼。数据显示，该项目以全年8.12亿元的商品房成交金额、7.85亿元的住宅成交金额，荣登商 品房及住宅项目成交金额双榜TOP10。热销的背后，不仅是市场对其产品力与品牌力的认可，更呼应了当下购房者对于高品质居住体验的切实需求。项目从 规划、设计到落地，均体现出万科对居住本质的深入思考，以及对城市人居标准的持续推动。 多年来，万科始终坚持以产品为核心，持续聚焦"好房子、好服务、好社区"的打造。从居住空间的精细化营造，到社区配套与生活服务的完善，万科致力于 通过扎实的产品与服务，满足居民对美好 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

Group 1 - The bond market showed mixed performance for Vanke's domestic bonds, with "22 Vanke 06" rising nearly 3%, "23 Vanke 01" up over 1%, and "21 Vanke 04" increasing by 0.63% [1] - Conversely, "22 Vanke 04" fell over 5%, and "21 Vanke 06" dropped more than 1% [1] - In the local bond market, bonds such as "25 Jilin Bond 29", "24 Corps Bond 03", and "25 Zhejiang Bond 02" increased by over 1% [1] Group 2 - Special government bonds experienced declines, with "24 Special National 01" down 0.49%, "24 Special National 02" down 0.37%, "24 Special National 03" down 0.47%, and "24 Special National 04" down 0.40% [1] - Other special government bonds like "Special National 2401" decreased by 0.19%, while "Special National 2403" fell by 0.43% [1]

Group 1: Debt Restructuring Progress - In January 2026, several real estate companies, including Vanke, Road King, and Fantasia, reported significant progress in debt restructuring, continuing the trend from 2025 [1][3] - In 2025, 21 distressed real estate companies completed debt restructuring, with a total debt relief of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [1][6] - The restructuring efforts are seen as a transition from addressing immediate liquidity crises to a more comprehensive resolution of debt risks in the real estate sector [5] Group 2: Policy Support and Financing Mechanisms - The "white list" financing system for real estate projects was optimized in January 2026, extending the loan extension period from 2.5 years to 5 years, providing companies with more financial flexibility [1][8] - The "white list" system has facilitated over 7 trillion yuan in loan approvals by September 2025, supporting nearly 20 million housing units [7] - The recent policy changes are expected to benefit financially healthier private real estate companies, allowing them to stabilize operations and diversify their business [9] Group 3: Specific Company Developments - Vanke announced a bond buyback plan on January 21, 2026, offering to repay 40% of the principal of certain bonds while extending the remaining 60% for one year, which was well-received by bondholders [3][4] - Fantasia's restructuring has entered a critical judicial phase, with the Hong Kong High Court approving a meeting for creditors to discuss the restructuring plan [4] - Jin Ke Co. completed a judicial restructuring in December 2025, involving a debt scale of 147 billion yuan, marking it as the largest case in the real estate sector [5]

Core Insights - The real estate market in Guangzhou shows signs of stabilization with a slight decrease in new residential sales prices, indicating a potential recovery phase in the sector [1] - Vanke has achieved significant sales performance in the Guangzhou-Foshan area, with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting strong market recognition and demand [5][21] - Vanke's community operations and delivery capabilities have enhanced customer satisfaction and contributed to a positive living experience, reinforcing its market position [16][20] Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, new residential sales prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with first-tier cities seeing a smaller decline of 0.3% [1] - Guangzhou's new housing transaction area reached 3.556 million square meters in 2025, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 4.2% [1] - Vanke's sales in the Guangzhou-Foshan area surpassed 10 billion yuan in 2025, with multiple projects ranking at the top of their respective markets [5][21] Group 2: Project Delivery and Community Engagement - Vanke delivered 6,731 new homes across 12 projects in Guangzhou, Foshan, and Qingyuan in 2025, with four projects delivered ahead of schedule [6] - The Vanke Ideal Huadi project achieved its first delivery in 2025, with a focus on enhancing community life and customer experience [9][10] - Vanke's community operations have attracted over 21.3 million visitors in 2025, showcasing its commitment to creating vibrant living spaces [16][17] Group 3: Educational and Commercial Development - Huangpu New Town has seen significant educational and commercial developments, with six out of eleven planned educational facilities already operational [15] - The project has established a diverse commercial ecosystem, with over 61 businesses, enhancing the local living environment [15] - Vanke's community initiatives have fostered a sense of belonging among residents, with numerous events and activities enhancing community engagement [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced a temporary suspension of the bond "21 Vanke 04" (149478) after its trading price increased by 20% or more compared to the previous closing price [1] Group 1 - The bond experienced a significant price increase, leading to a temporary trading halt at 10:11:10 AM [1] - The bond was resumed for trading at 10:41:11 AM after the temporary suspension [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][3][9]. Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1][9]. - The construction area for real estate developers was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3]. Construction Activity - New construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new construction area at 42,984 million square meters, a decline of 19.8% [4]. - The completion area was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 42,830 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase due to declining new home sales and significantly reduced land transactions over the past two years [5]. - Some central and state-owned enterprises are maintaining orderly construction activities, and there is still demand for well-located properties, which is boosting market confidence [6]. Financial Policies and Support - Local governments are enhancing "guarantee delivery" efforts, with recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing financing for projects on the "white list," which will support the delivery of homes [7]. Leading Companies - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan. These include major players like Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Vanke [9]. - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant investments from China Overseas, China Resources, Poly Development, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating a strategic positioning during market adjustments [9]. Market Trends - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new commercial housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales revenue rising by 44.07% [10]. - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease, with Shanghai experiencing a minor increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou reported declines [10][11]. - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased transactions in second-hand homes as buyers seek more affordable options [12].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in the activity of the credit bond secondary market due to structural interest rate cuts and excess MLF operations, with a weekly transaction volume reaching 9,929 billion yuan, marking a high point since July 2025 [10][12]. - Vanke's 1.1 billion yuan bond ("21 Vanke 02") extension was approved with a high vote of 92.11%, providing a precedent for the handling of other extended bonds [12][15]. - The net financing amount for credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) was 185.1 billion yuan, an increase of 120.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with total issuance rising to 418.6 billion yuan [16][19]. Group 2 - In the primary market, the average issuance rates for AA city investment bonds, AA+ industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased significantly, while other credit bonds showed fluctuations within 10 basis points [20][21]. - The secondary market saw a 1,350 billion yuan increase in transaction volume, with the turnover rate for credit bonds showing slight fluctuations [22][26]. - Credit spreads for AA+ electronic and non-bank financial sectors expanded significantly, while the AA+ pharmaceutical and biological sector saw a compression of 6 basis points [34][49]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the yields on credit bonds have continued to decline, with various credit products experiencing a reduction in spreads, making coupon assets increasingly scarce [50]. - The report suggests that mid-to-short-term credit bonds will remain a preferred choice for bond funds seeking safety, particularly recommending a focus on 3-5 year bank capital bonds [6][50].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Primary Market - A total of 7 offshore bonds were issued this week (January 19-23, 2026), including 2 RMB bonds, 2 USD bonds, 1 HKD bond, and 2 AUD bonds [2] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 1.092 billion RMB with a maximum coupon rate of 3.15%, issued by Ganzhou Urban Investment Holding Group [2] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 300 million USD by Panzhihua Panxi Technology City Development Co., with the highest coupon rate of 9.75% issued by Ruian Real Estate Co. [2] Secondary Market Overview - The yield on Chinese USD bonds slightly increased this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index rising by 0.11 to 252.07 [3] - The investment-grade USD bond index increased by 0.1% to 244.95, while the high-yield USD bond index rose by 0.21% to 243.79 [3] - The real estate USD bond index increased by 0.26% to 180.79, and the city investment USD bond index rose by 0.07% to 154.74 [3] Benchmark Spread - As of January 23, the spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the U.S. widened to 240.9 basis points, an increase of 2.1 basis points from the previous week [4] Rating Changes - Moody's withdrew the "Ca" corporate family rating for Hailong Holdings Co., Ltd. at the company's request on January 19 [6] - Fitch downgraded the long-term foreign currency issuer ratings of Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. to "RD" on January 19 [6] Defaults and Extensions - Vanke successfully passed a bond extension plan for 1.1 billion RMB with a high approval rate of 92.11% on January 21, marking its first successful extension since facing difficulties in late 2025 [7] Domestic News - In December 2025, over 10 trillion RMB worth of debt financing instruments were issued in the interbank market, with a total of 11,531 instruments issued throughout the year amounting to 10.09 trillion RMB [8] - Since the launch of the green foreign debt pilot in Shandong, approximately 330 million RMB in cross-border financing has been achieved, involving key green sectors [9] - The panda bond market reached a record issuance of 163.31 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with a total outstanding amount of 318.78 billion RMB [10] Overseas News - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% on January 23, to assess the impact of last month's rate hike on the economy [11] Offshore Debt Alerts - Vanke withdrew its application for the listing of the Huaxia Wanwei Warehousing Logistics Closed-End Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund on January 23 [12] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. plans to issue 1.2 billion USD zero-coupon convertible bonds with a conversion premium of 28.7% [13] - Hongyi Culture extended the maturity date of its 60 million HKD convertible bonds to April 21, 2028 [14]