智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，长城汽车(02333,601633.SH)公布2025年初步业绩，收入同比增长 10%，但净利润同比下降22%。年终奖金拨备或影响第四季净利润约30亿元人民币，若剔除延迟的俄罗 斯报废车税退税影响，该行估计第四季单车利润可按季上升约2,000元至10,500元。展望2026年，该行预 计长城国内销售将受内需减弱影响，而俄罗斯市场的影响可能持续。因此下调长城汽车2026年及2027年 净利润预测分别为19%及3%，并下调目标市盈率倍数，将H股目标价由21港元下调至15港元，A股目标 价则由36元下调至24元。然而，该行维持"跑赢大市"评级，因预期长城在行业波动中仍将保持韧性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in January 2026 showed a slight year-on-year increase but a significant month-on-month decline, primarily due to policy changes and demand exhaustion, with exports becoming a crucial growth driver for companies [1][22]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall automotive market experienced a year-on-year increase but a month-on-month decline, with some companies facing drastic reductions in sales [1]. - The core reasons for the market's sluggish start include the reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax and a mismatch in demand due to the timing of the Spring Festival [1]. - Exports have emerged as a vital growth area for automotive companies, helping to offset domestic market fluctuations [1][6]. Group 2: Company Sales Data - BYD sold 210,100 vehicles in January, a year-on-year decline of 30.11% and a month-on-month decline of 50.04%, heavily impacted by the new energy vehicle tax policy [3][5]. - Geely's sales reached 270,200 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.29% and a month-on-month increase of 14.08%, with significant export growth [5][6]. - SAIC Group reported sales of 327,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, with a notable increase in overseas sales [8]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Trends - The new energy vehicle market is facing challenges due to policy changes, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment [1][3]. - Companies are increasingly relying on exports to sustain growth in the new energy vehicle segment, as domestic competition intensifies [6][22]. Group 4: Competitive Strategies - Companies are engaging in aggressive promotional strategies, including long-term financing options and price reductions, to stimulate sales amid a cooling market [15][17]. - The automotive industry is shifting towards a more competitive landscape, focusing on comprehensive service offerings beyond just product pricing [17][22]. - Traditional luxury brands are facing pressure from the rise of domestic electric vehicle manufacturers, leading to significant price reductions to maintain market share [20][22].

交银国际发表研报指，长城汽车去年净利润按年跌21.7%至99.12亿元，主要由于销量及收入增长同时， 公司加速构建直连用户的新渠道模式，并加大新车型及新技术上市宣传及品牌提升投入。去年收入按年 升10.2%至2227.9亿元，单车收入按年提升约4500元，至16.83万元，20万元以上车型销量按年增加逾9 万辆，反映高端化与结构升级仍在推进。展望2026年，公司指引海外销量挑战60万辆，且去年第四季已 于多个区域加快渠道签约，为2026年增量奠定基础。该行认为公司中期仍受惠于高端化+新能源+出海 方向，但去年第四季已体现投入加大对利润的阶段性挤压；维持"买入"评级，H股目标价22.5港元。 ...

2月1日，各家车企相继发布了1月销量。从整体上看，汽车行业实现2026年"开门红"，大多数车企1月销量同比取得正增长，但这一同比增长是由于2025年春 节在1月，去年同期的新车销售基数较低。 环比数据上，大多数车企1月销量下滑明显，主要原因在于2025年12月新能源汽车还享受购置税全额减免政策，同时车企为年底冲量，在12月出台了许多其 他优惠政策。进入2026年1月后，新能源汽车购置税开始减半征收，车企购置税兜底政策也随之结束。另外，1月各地具体的购车补贴细则尚未全部出台，导 致消费者存在观望情绪，影响了车市终端销售情况。 具体来看，问界汽车1月交付约4万辆，同比增长83%，环比下滑30.74%；小米汽车1月交付超3.9万辆，去年同期为超2万辆，去年12月为超5万辆；零跑汽车 1月全系交付达3.21万辆，同比增长27%，环比下滑46.94%。 比亚迪1月销售21.01万辆，其中海外销量表现亮眼，乘用车及皮卡海外销售10万辆，同比增长43.3%。分品牌来看，比亚迪品牌销售17.75万辆；方程豹品牌 销售2.16万辆；腾势品牌销售6002辆；仰望品牌销售413辆。 长城汽车1月销售新车9.03万辆，同比增长11. ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese automotive industry transitions from "price competition" to "value competition," leading to a high-quality development phase, with increased market differentiation and revenue pressure on most automakers. However, Great Wall Motors achieves significant revenue growth through a clear strategic focus on high-end and new energy vehicles, reaching a record revenue of 222.79 billion yuan, a 10.19% year-on-year increase [2][3]. Industry Background - The automotive market in China is undergoing a critical adjustment phase, with lingering effects from previous price wars and accelerated transitions to new energy vehicles, resulting in many automakers facing profitability challenges [3][4]. Revenue Growth Drivers - Great Wall Motors' revenue growth is attributed to a shift from "scale competition" to a "value-driven" business model, enhancing the quality and sustainability of revenue growth. The average vehicle price reached 201,300 yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase in product premium capabilities [4][6]. High-End and New Energy Vehicle Growth - In 2025, sales of high-end and new energy vehicles at Great Wall Motors both saw substantial growth, validating the company's strategic focus on brand elevation and energy transition. The high-end brand sales, particularly from the WEY and Tank brands, significantly contributed to revenue growth [5][7]. Product Structure Optimization - Great Wall Motors has established a clear multi-brand matrix, covering price ranges from 100,000 to 450,000 yuan, allowing for differentiated competition and avoiding internal competition. This structure supports the company's transition to high-value and high-quality products [10][11]. Technological Investment - The company has invested heavily in technology and innovation, with a team of 23,000 engineers and significant investments in testing facilities. This focus on technology is expected to enhance product quality and brand value, positioning Great Wall Motors for future growth [12].

Core Insights - The automotive market in January 2026 shows a clear distinction between traditional domestic brands, which are performing strongly, and new energy vehicle (NEV) startups, which are facing challenges [1][5] Traditional Domestic Brands Performance - Major traditional automakers like SAIC, Geely, and Chery reported over 20% year-on-year sales growth in January 2026, with SAIC leading the market [2][3] - SAIC sold 327,400 vehicles in January, a 23.9% increase year-on-year, with 214,000 units from its own brands, marking a 39.6% increase [2] - Geely's sales reached 270,200 units, a 1% year-on-year increase, with NEV sales contributing significantly [2] - Chery's sales totaled 200,300 units, with exports accounting for 119,600 units, a 48.1% increase year-on-year [3] - GAC Group saw a significant increase in sales, reaching 116,600 units, up 18.47% year-on-year, driven by its new energy and overseas sales [3] New Energy Vehicle Startups Challenges - In contrast, nine major NEV startups experienced a collective decline in sales, with month-on-month drops ranging from 21.2% to 47.0% [5][6] - Despite the downturn, some brands like NIO and Zeekr reported year-on-year growth exceeding 95% [6][7] - The decline in NEV sales is attributed to short-term factors such as policy changes and seasonal demand fluctuations [6][7] - The market is expected to stabilize post-policy transition, with a potential recovery in sales anticipated in February and March 2026 [7] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The automotive industry is witnessing a restructuring of brand rankings, with traditional brands solidifying their positions while new entrants face increasing competition [1][5] - The long-term growth logic of the NEV sector remains intact, with expectations for a gradual recovery as new products are launched and market conditions improve [7]

截至2月2日，国内主流车企2026年1月产销数据陆续披露。整体市场呈现"传统自主强势领跑、新势力普 遍承压"的鲜明格局：上汽、吉利、奇瑞等头部车企销量同比多实现20%以上增长，自主品牌座次因新 能源与出口表现差异出现重构。 与此同时，9家主流造车新势力则遭遇集体环比下滑。业内分析指出，短期政策切换、淡季效应等因素 扰动终端，但自主车企核心竞争力持续提升，新势力"马太效应"加剧，行业高质量发展的长期逻辑未 变。 ● 本报记者 龚梦泽 自主品牌座次重构 奇瑞集团凭借出口优势跃居前列，1月销售汽车20.03万辆，其中出口11.96万辆，同比增长48.1%，连续 9个月出口突破10万辆。新能源板块同样稳步推进，1月销量5.21万辆，形成"出口+新能源"双轮驱动格 局。旗下主要品牌中，奇瑞品牌销量13.56万辆，捷途品牌4.27万辆，星途、iCAR、智界品牌分别销售 5276辆、3419辆、4506辆，产品矩阵覆盖从主流到高端的全细分市场。 广汽集团自主板块爆发式增长，推动整体销量达11.66万辆，同比增长18.47%。这是昊铂埃安BU和传祺 BU完成组建后首次披露月度销量，成效立竿见影：昊铂埃安BU销量超2.16万辆 ...

2026年1月，在政策切换与年终促销透支的双重作用下，国内车市经历深度调整。 据乘联分会初步推算，1月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为180万辆，环比下降20.4%，同比微增0.3%。多家传统车 企和造车新品牌发布的销量数据也显示，今年1月汽车市场整体呈现销量环比下滑、同比上扬的局面。 上汽集团1月销量达32.74万辆，同比增长23.94%，为当月销量规模最高的车企。 吉利汽车集团1月乘用车销量达27.02万辆，同比增长1.29%，环比增长14.08%，成为目前唯一实现同环比正增长的 企业。 比亚迪1月销量国内下滑、海外增长。当月总销量约21万辆，其中海外市场销量超10万辆，同比增长51.47%。海 外市场的快速拓展正成为比亚迪重要的增长引擎。比亚迪品牌及公关部门总经理李云飞年初透露，公司计划在 2026年向中国以外地区销售130万辆汽车。 （文章来源：新京报） 新势力车企中，小米汽车1月交付量超3.9万辆，首次超越零跑汽车。赛力斯、极氪、蔚来1月销量同比分别增长 104.85%、99.7%和96.08%，成为当月表现亮眼的高增长梯队。 吉利汽车集团 14.08% 270167 1% 比亚迪 210051 -30. ...

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In January 2026, major domestic automotive groups reported strong sales performance, with several companies achieving year-on-year growth in sales [2][5][19] - SAIC Motor Corporation sold 327,413 vehicles in January, marking a 23.9% increase year-on-year [5] - Geely Automobile's sales reached 270,167 units, a 1% increase year-on-year, with a 14% month-on-month growth [8] Group 2: Brand-Specific Performance - SAIC's self-owned brands accounted for 65.3% of total sales, with a 39.6% increase in sales of self-owned brands [5] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 124,252 units, representing 46% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 3% [8][9] - BYD's total new energy vehicle sales were 210,051 units, a decline of 30.11% year-on-year, but overseas sales surged by 51.47% [12] Group 3: Export and Overseas Market Growth - Chery Group maintained its position as the top exporter of Chinese automobiles, with exports reaching 119,605 units, a year-on-year increase of 48.1% [15] - SAIC's overseas sales reached 105,000 units, a 51.7% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growing importance of international markets [6] - BYD's overseas market expansion is becoming a significant growth driver, with nearly half of its total sales coming from exports [12] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - Geely plans to launch 1-2 new products each quarter in 2026, aiming for an annual sales target of 3.45 million units [9] - GAC Group has set ambitious overseas sales targets for 2026, aiming for 250,000 units, with a goal of reaching 100,000 units in the Asia-Pacific market by 2027 [19] - Dongfeng Motor plans to introduce five new models in 2026 to support its growth in the new energy sector [24]

2026 年 2 月 2 日 公司研究 4Q25 盈利承压，关注高端化+全球化推进 ——长城汽车（601633.SH、2333.HK）2025 年业绩快报点评 要点 2025 年业绩快报披露，4Q25 低于预期：2025 年公司营业收入同比+10.2%至 2,227.9 亿元，归母净利润同比-21.7%至 99.1 亿元，扣非后归母净利润同比 -36.5%至 61.6 亿元；其中，4Q25 公司收入同比+15.5%/环比+13.0%至 692.1 亿元，归母净利润同比-43.5%/环比-44.4%至 12.8 亿元，扣非后归母净利润同 比-49.4%/环比-63.9%至 6.8 亿元。我们测算，2025 年公司扣非后单车盈利同 比-40.8%至 0.47 万元，4Q25 扣非后单车盈利同比-52.1%/环比-68.2%至 0.17 万元。4Q25 盈利环比下降主要受年终奖计提+报废税递延导致。 高端化战略成果显现，品牌价值稳步提升：2025 年公司汽车销量同比+7.3%至 132.4 万辆，新能源汽车销量同比+25.4%至 40.4 万辆（渗透率同比+4.4pcts 至 30.5%）；4Q25 公司汽车销量同 ...