Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on PDD, indicating favorable risk-reward dynamics due to its non-participation in the food delivery competition and potential growth from new user traffic and general merchandise strength [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a potential resumption of Nvidia H20 chip supply, which could positively impact China's cloud service providers' capital expenditures starting from Q3 2025, with an expected 44% quarter-over-quarter increase in aggregate capex [1]. - There is a notable increase in generative AI adoption among Chinese enterprises, with over 40% having pilot-tested generative AI tools, up from 8% last year [1]. - The performance gap between US and Chinese AI models is narrowing, with new releases from various internet platforms and AI startups [1]. - The report emphasizes steady progress in monetization of AI applications, with Chinese models achieving scalable annual recurring revenue (ARR) for their AI products [1]. Summary by Sections AI Application Trends - China's top AI applications showed healthy user engagement trends in June, with a 6% month-over-month increase in domestic AIGC application engagement, driven by strong growth in Doubao and DeepSeek [8][10]. - The overall time spent on the top 400 mobile apps increased by 7% year-over-year in June 2025, with significant growth in eCommerce and social engagement [7][10]. Capital Expenditure Forecasts - The report forecasts a drop in combined capex from China CSPs in Q2 2025, followed by gradual improvement in Q3 and Q4 2025, driven by the resumption of Nvidia shipments and domestic chip ramp-up [15]. Monetization and Revenue Growth - The ARR of various AI operations in Chinese companies shows significant figures, with Kuaishou's Kling AI expected to reach over US$400 million in total annual revenue by 2027 [20][21]. - The report notes that subscription-based productivity tools and advertising-based AI search engines are contributing to the monetization of AI applications [1]. Competitive Landscape - Competition in video-generative models is intensifying, with Kuaishou's Kling AI projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, alongside other models from ByteDance and Alibaba [1][6]. - The report highlights the increasing capabilities of Chinese AI models, which are closing the performance gap with US counterparts [33][34].

Group 1 - The core index, the CESP50, opened lower and experienced fluctuations, closing down 0.35% at 3063.52 points with a trading volume of 82.117 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the CESP50 index has increased by 2.95%, 14.19% over the last three months, and 22.59% year-to-date [1] - The CESP50 index is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and reflects the overall performance of the top 50 blue-chip securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CESP50 index include HSBC Holdings (10.22%), Tencent Holdings (9.84%), Alibaba-W (9.57%), Xiaomi Group-W (6.96%), and others [1] - The CESP50 index is entirely composed of stocks from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the financial sector representing 40.10%, consumer discretionary 23.83%, and communication services 16.12% among others [2]

Core Points - The Chuanghua Trading Service Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 Index (CES100) experienced a decline of 0.47%, closing at 5303.57 points with a trading volume of 96.677 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the CES100 index has increased by 3.56%, by 16.52% over the last three months, and by 25.56% year-to-date [1] Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the CES100 index are: HSBC Holdings (10.21%), Tencent Holdings (9.83%), Alibaba-W (9.56%), Xiaomi Group-W (7.99%), Meituan-W (5.82%), AIA Group (5.55%), Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (4.13%), Standard Chartered Group (2.51%), Prudential (1.93%), and Kuaishou-W (1.61%) [2] - The index is fully composed of securities from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the CES100 index includes: Financials (27.78%), Consumer Discretionary (26.88%), Communication Services (13.71%), Information Technology (10.34%), Real Estate (5.45%), Health Care (4.84%), Utilities (3.96%), Industrials (3.34%), Consumer Staples (3.17%), and Materials (0.53%) [2] Fund Tracking - Public funds tracking the CES100 index include: Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF Link A, Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF Link C, and Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF [2]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Meituan's core local business segment, Wang Puzhong, expressed confidence in Meituan's ability to compete against Alibaba's aggressive 500 billion subsidy strategy, stating that Meituan can match Alibaba's efforts with significantly fewer resources [1][2]. Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Alibaba's 500 billion subsidy is seen as an irrational competition aimed at intimidating Meituan, with the expectation that Meituan cannot keep up financially [2]. - Meituan achieved a record order volume of 1.5 billion on a single day, but Wang Puzhong clarified that the actual expenditure was much lower than the 800 million speculated by Alibaba insiders [3]. - Wang Puzhong noted that Alibaba's cumulative losses from its food delivery service Ele.me exceed 150 billion, suggesting that Alibaba's new investment is akin to a gambler trying to recover losses [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decision for Alibaba to intensify its competition appears to have been influenced by the entry of JD.com into the food delivery market, which reportedly secured 25 million orders in just 75 days [6]. - Wang Puzhong emphasized that the number of orders does not equate to valuable Gross Transaction Value (GTV), highlighting that many orders consist of low-value items, such as bulk purchases of bottled water [6]. - The overall market for instant retail has seen a significant increase, with daily orders rising from 100 million at the beginning of the year to 250 million recently, although Wang Puzhong believes that most of this growth is speculative [7].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Meituan's core local business segment, Wang Puzhong, criticized Ele.me's unsustainable promotional strategy of offering free meals, indicating that such high costs cannot be maintained in the long term [1] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Wang Puzhong highlighted that Meituan's system capabilities surpass those of its competitors, allowing for targeted promotions and efficient user engagement [1] - He pointed out that other platforms are facing issues with "negative orders" and extremely low-income orders, which he attributes to a lack of operational precision and risk control in extreme marketing strategies [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - Meituan did not initially intend to engage in aggressive competition but felt compelled to respond to market dynamics [1] - The company claims that, with its system capabilities, it could easily increase order volumes if it chose to adopt a similar subsidy strategy as its competitors, stating it could scale from 150 million to 160 million or even 200 million orders if desired [2]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is aggressively entering the food delivery market with a substantial subsidy of 50 billion, aiming to surpass Meituan in order volume, which is perceived as an irrational competition by Meituan's CEO [1] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Meituan's CEO believes Alibaba's strategy is designed to intimidate them, banking on the assumption that Meituan cannot match the financial resources [1] - Alibaba has set an ambitious target to exceed Meituan's order volume, indicating a high-stakes competition in the food delivery sector [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - Meituan reported a record single-day order volume of 150 million, countering speculation that they incurred a loss of 800 million on that day [1] - Meituan's actual expenditure is significantly lower than Alibaba's, suggesting a more efficient use of resources in the competitive landscape [1]

美团王莆中谈淘宝闪购500亿补贴：没有花8个亿，实际投入远比阿里少 金十数据7月16日讯，今日，美团核心本地商业板块CEO王莆中谈及近日淘宝闪购500亿补贴对美团带来 的影响时提到，这肯定是一个非理性的竞争，非理性是说他们觉得打500亿会吓到我们，赌我们跟不 起，毕竟电商行业的头部公司利润很多嘛。何况还定了一个激进的目标——希望在单量上超过我们。但 他们很快会发现，我们不仅跟得起，而且用了比他们少得多的资源在跟。他提到，"我们没有花8个亿， 实际投入远比阿里少。"（晚点） ...

7月16日恒生指数下跌0.29%，报收24517.76点，全天南向资金通过港股通渠道合计净买入16.03亿港 元。 证券时报·数据宝统计，7月16日港股通全天合计成交金额为1288.02亿港元，成交净买入16.03亿港元。 具体来看，沪市港股通成交金额819.58亿港元，成交净买入20.09亿港元；深市港股通成交金额468.44亿 港元，成交净卖出4.06亿港元。 | 代码 | 简称 | 类型 | 成交金额（万港元） | 成交净买入（万港元） | 日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(沪) | 572834.28 | -34338.01 | 0.26 | | 01788 | 国泰君安国际 | 港股通(沪) | 567262.75 | 10080.56 | 4.93 | | 09992 | 泡泡玛特 | 港股通(沪) | 362346.76 | 31572.40 | -4.03 | | 09988 | 阿里巴巴-W | 港股通(深) | 307619.00 | 31374.96 | 0.26 | | 0070 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On July 16, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29%, with southbound funds recording a total transaction amount of HKD 128.80 billion, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 16.03 billion [1]. Southbound Fund Transactions - The total transaction amount for southbound funds was HKD 128.80 billion, with buy transactions amounting to HKD 65.20 billion and sell transactions at HKD 63.60 billion, leading to a net buy of HKD 16.03 billion [1]. - The southbound trading through Stock Connect (Shenzhen) had a total transaction amount of HKD 46.84 billion, with net selling of HKD 4.06 billion, while the trading through Stock Connect (Shanghai) had a total transaction amount of HKD 81.96 billion, resulting in a net buy of HKD 20.09 billion [1]. Active Stocks - The most actively traded stock by southbound funds was Alibaba-W, with a total transaction amount of HKD 88.05 billion, followed by Guotai Junan International and Pop Mart, with transaction amounts of HKD 76.18 billion and HKD 58.30 billion, respectively [1]. - The stocks with the highest net buying included Meituan-W with a net buy of HKD 8.57 billion, followed by China Construction Bank with HKD 7.59 billion and CanSino Biologics with HKD 1.30 billion [1]. - Tencent Holdings had the highest net selling amount of HKD 17.57 billion, with other notable net sells from Xiaomi Group-W and Kingsoft Cloud at HKD 2.67 billion and HKD 1.69 billion, respectively [1]. Continuous Net Buying and Selling - Meituan-W was the only stock to receive continuous net buying for more than three days, with a total net buy of HKD 66.08 billion over eight days [2]. - The stocks with the highest continuous net selling included Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group-W, with total net sells of HKD 35.78 billion and HKD 19.75 billion, respectively [2].

Core Insights - Meituan has launched a new service called "Fresh Commitment" for low-temperature milk in Changsha and Chengdu, allowing consumers to select this option for quick delivery of fresh milk [1][2] - The service addresses consumer concerns about the short shelf life of low-temperature milk, especially during summer when spoilage is a significant issue [1] - The "Fresh Commitment" service is part of Meituan's broader "Safe Shopping" initiative, which aims to enhance consumer confidence in purchasing fast-moving consumer goods [1] Group 1 - The "Fresh Commitment" service ensures that low-temperature milk is delivered within 30 minutes under full refrigeration, covering major brands like New Hope and Mengniu [1] - Meituan has partnered with over a hundred retail brands and local businesses to implement this service, aiming for nationwide expansion [1] - The service includes a compensation policy where consumers can receive cash vouchers if they purchase products that are close to or past their expiration date [2] Group 2 - The initiative is supported by collaborations with various convenience stores and supermarkets, including Squirrel Convenience and Metro, to enhance distribution capabilities [2] - The service is designed to alleviate consumer worries about product freshness and quality, particularly in the hot summer months [1][2] - Meituan's strategy reflects a growing trend in the instant retail sector, focusing on consumer satisfaction and product reliability [1]