Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that there is significant potential for high-quality development in China's real estate sector, driven by both rigid and improvement housing demands. The urbanization rate for permanent residents is projected to reach 67% by 2024, while the registered population urbanization rate is below 50%, indicating ongoing housing demand [11][12] - A new model for real estate development is being proposed, focusing on controlling supply, revitalizing existing stock, and encouraging the transformation of real estate companies. This includes reforms in development, financing, and sales systems to facilitate a smooth transition from old to new models [12][4] - The report highlights that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate stocks is akin to investing in economic trends. The focus remains on first-tier and select second-tier cities, which are expected to perform better in terms of sales [4][12] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Insights - The central government outlines the need for high-quality development in real estate, addressing both rigid and improvement demands. The report notes that many urban residents are still unsatisfied with their housing conditions, indicating a strong potential for improvement demand [11][12] Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.4% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. A total of 71 stocks rose, while 40 fell [13][4] New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the latest week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 208.7 million square meters, a 19.9% increase month-on-month but a 42.7% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities accounted for 54.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% [24][26] - For second-hand housing, 14 sample cities saw a total transaction area of 200.4 million square meters, a 2.0% increase month-on-month but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the anticipated policy support and the improving competitive landscape. Key stocks to watch include major developers and companies involved in property management and brokerage services [4][12]

房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月月报 11 月新房成交同比降幅扩大，二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济 工作会议指出"稳地产、去库存"，预期 26 年地产政策空间打开 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【土地市场】 【房企】 【政策】 【板块收益】 11 月新房成交面积环比由正转负、同比降幅扩大。11 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-6.8%，同比-40.7%，同比降幅较 10 月扩大 13.9pct，1-11 月累计同比-11.5%。我们认为，影响居民购房能力及购房意愿的收入与就业预期尚未根本性扭转，市场信心仍然不 足，叠加去年 12 月销售的基数也相对较高，全年地产市场压力很难缓解。 从各能级城市来看，11 月一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积同比降幅均扩大。1）一线城市：11 月新房成交面积环比+4.5%，同比-43.5%， 同比降幅较 10 月扩大 5.2pct；1-11 月累计同比-13.8%。具体来看，11 月北京新房成交面积环比-34%，同比-54%；上海环比+31%，同比- 22%；广州环比-1 ...

绿城中国(03900)发布公告，绿城管理集团不时获中交集团、其附属公司及/或其联系人委聘为有关中交 集团、其附属公司及/或其联系人的工程项目的项目管理服务供应商。为精简单一框架项下的有关交 易，于2025年12月19日，绿城管理与中交集团订立2025年项目管理框架协议，以规管绿城管理集团向中 交集团、其附属公司及/或其联系人提供项目管理服务。2025年项目管理框架协议的期限直至2027年12 月31日。 ...

格隆汇12月19日丨绿城中国(03900.HK)公告，于2025年12月19日，公司非全资附属公司绿城管理与中交 集团订立2025年项目管理框架协议，以规管绿城管理集团向中交集团、其附属公司及╱或其联系人提供 项目管理服务。2025年项目管理框架协议的期限直至2027年12月31日。 ...

智通财经APP讯，绿城中国(03900)发布公告，绿城管理集团不时获中交集团、其附属公司及/或其联系 人委聘为有关中交集团、其附属公司及/或其联系人的工程项目的项目管理服务供应商。为精简单一框 架项下的有关交易，于2025年12月19日，绿城管理与中交集团订立2025年项目管理框架协议，以规管绿 城管理集团向中交集团、其附属公司及/或其联系人提供项目管理服务。2025年项目管理框架协议的期 限直至2027年12月31日。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 GREENTOWN CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED 持續關連交易 提供項目管理服務 綠 城 管 理 集 團 不 時 獲 中 交 集 團、其 附 屬 公 司 及╱或 其 聯 繫 人 委 聘 為 有 關 中 交 集 團、其 附 屬 公 司 及╱或 其 聯 繫 人 的 工 程 項 目 的 項 目 管 理 服 務 供 應 商。為 精 簡 單 一 框 架 項 下 的 有 關 交 易，於2025年12月19日，綠 城 管 理 與 中 交 集 團 訂 立2025年 項 目 管 理 框 架 協 議，以 規 管 綠 城 管 理 集 團 向 中 交 集 團、其 附 屬 公 司 及╱或 其 聯 繫 人 提 供 項 目 管 理 服 務。2025年項目管理框架協議的期限直至 2027年12月31日。 於 本 公 告 日 期，中 交 集 團 及 其 附 屬 公 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a cautious shift in land acquisition strategies among companies, focusing on high-quality land parcels rather than blind expansion [5][9][11] - The supply of residential land in first, second, and third-tier cities has shown a significant month-on-month recovery, although year-on-year comparisons remain weak [14][16][20] - The issuance of special bonds for land acquisition is accelerating, providing a positive signal to the market and enhancing confidence in economic development [19][20] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - The top 50 real estate companies added a total of 309.49 million square meters of land in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.8% [5][9] - Leading companies in land acquisition include China Overseas Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, with respective land reserves of 467.46 million square meters, 386.71 million square meters, and 373.95 million square meters [11][12] - The total land acquisition amount for the top companies from January to November reached 880.2 billion yuan for China Overseas Land, 625.9 billion yuan for China Resources Land, and 597 billion yuan for Poly Developments [11][12] Group 2: Land Supply and Pricing - In the reporting period, 1,833 residential land plots were supplied across first, second, and third-tier cities, with a total planned construction area of 131.34 million square meters, marking a month-on-month increase of 149.72% [14][16] - The starting floor price for supplied land was 3,167 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 9.69% [14][16] - The average transaction price for residential land in first, second, and third-tier cities was 4,165.2 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decrease of 6.43% [20][22] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Special Bonds - The issuance of special bonds for land acquisition has increased significantly, with a net issuance of 655.19 billion yuan in November, including 492.19 billion yuan for new special bonds [19][20] - The market is witnessing a cautious approach from companies towards non-core areas, focusing instead on mature regions with solid data support [5][9][11] - The overall land market remains in an adjustment phase, with varying recovery rates across different city tiers, indicating a need for more positive factors to support market heat [23][25]

Core Insights - The 2025 Wuhan Investment Promotion Conference was held with the theme "Invest in Wuhan, Win the Future" [2] - The conference attracted approximately 240 representatives from Fortune 500 companies, multinational corporations, and innovative tech firms, focusing on collaboration and development [3] Group 1: Investment Highlights - A total of 160 industrial projects were signed during the conference, with a total investment amount of 110.97 billion yuan [3][15] - Among the signed projects, 38 projects exceeded 1 billion yuan, accounting for 81.3 billion yuan of the total [15] - The signed projects included 56 on-stage agreements, with 48 industrial projects worth 61.62 billion yuan and 8 urban renewal projects worth 12.04 billion yuan [15] Group 2: Industry Focus - The signed projects spanned multiple sectors, including artificial intelligence, next-generation information technology, health and biomanufacturing, digital economy, optoelectronic information, intelligent connected vehicles, new energy, new materials, and high-end equipment manufacturing [3][15] - The conference featured four thematic matchmaking activities focused on artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, digital economy, and urban renewal development [15] Group 3: Guest Contributions - Notable figures such as Li Kaifu and Li Bin sent video messages to the conference, highlighting the importance of Wuhan's unique advantages in education, location, and industrial ecology [15] - Guests praised Wuhan's potential in emerging industries like artificial intelligence, digital economy, and biomedicine, expressing eagerness to collaborate with the city [15]

Core Insights - The new housing supply in the Xiasha area is experiencing a concentrated surge, with projects like Chaoying Hangyuan seeing rapid sales and high demand due to solid local amenities and a vibrant living atmosphere [1] - Upcoming projects such as Yueying Jinsha and Mufangzhou are set to cater to different market segments, with Yueying Jinsha targeting the improvement market and Mufangzhou focusing on first-time homebuyers [2][4] Group 1: Project Details - Chaoying Hangyuan has launched 36 units with an average price of approximately 27,000 yuan per square meter, marking its third permit issuance in two weeks, indicating strong sales performance [1] - Yueying Jinsha, located near the Xiasha West subway station, will offer 432 units with sizes ranging from 120 to 178 square meters, positioned as a pure improvement project [2][3] - Mufangzhou, targeting first-time buyers, will feature 763 units with sizes from 89 to 132 square meters, with a projected total price around 250,000 yuan, making it the lowest-priced new project in the area in the past year [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sales of Yueying Jinsha have been robust, with previous projects like Huying Jinsha achieving a low lottery rate of under 25% and completing eight rounds of sales in five months [2] - Mufangzhou's pricing strategy is competitive, with expected prices between 26,000 to 27,000 yuan per square meter, lower than the previous cap of 27,500 yuan per square meter in the area [5][6] - The two projects, Yueying Jinsha and Mufangzhou, complement each other by addressing different buyer needs, enhancing the attractiveness of the Xiasha market during this supply peak [7]

Financing Overview - In November, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 62.04 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [1][2][7] - The financing structure included 26.22 billion yuan from credit bonds (down 1.6% year-on-year, accounting for 42.3%), 6.42 billion yuan from overseas bonds (10.3%), and 29.4 billion yuan from ABS (up 36% year-on-year, accounting for 47.4%) [2][8] - From January to November 2025, total bond financing for real estate companies was 550.28 billion yuan, a 10.5% increase year-on-year [2][8] Credit Bond Issuance - Credit bond issuance saw a slight year-on-year decline, primarily from state-owned enterprises, with major issuers including China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments, each issuing over 3 billion yuan [3][9] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.56 years, with a focus on 1-3 year and over 3-year bonds [3][9] ABS Issuance - ABS issuance totaled 29.4 billion yuan, showing significant growth, with class REITs being the largest category at 51.7% of the total [4][10] - Recent successful ABS projects include the "Huatai-Shanghai Zhongjian Plaza" and "CITIC Securities-Yuexiu Commercial" plans, which support the development of operational business models for real estate companies [4][10] Financing Costs - The average bond financing interest rate was 2.66%, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.07 percentage points, but an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5][11] - The average interest rate for credit bonds was 2.23%, down 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while overseas bonds had an average rate of 2.97% [5][11] Corporate Financing Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou had the highest issuance amount at 5.04 billion yuan, while Suzhou High-tech had the lowest financing cost at 1.73% [6][12] - Key companies such as China Jinmao, China Resources, and Poly Developments reported new financing activities, while Sunac and Times China had their overseas debt restructuring plans approved [6][12]