[Table_IndNameRptType] 电力设备 行业周报 锂电材料价格上涨，储能需求持续火热 [Table_Author] 分析师：张志邦 执业证书号：S0010523120004 电话：15652947918 邮箱：zhangzhibang@hazq.com 分析师：刘千琳 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-11-19 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -28% -11% 6% 23% 40% 57% 11/24 2/25 5/25 8/25 电力设备 沪深300 执业证书号：S0010524050002 邮箱：liuqianlin@hazq.com 分析师：郑洋 执业证书号：S0010524110003 邮箱：zhengyang@hazq.com 分析师：王璐 执业证书号：S0010525040001 电话：18301818122 [Table_Report] 相关报告 ⚫ 电网设备：关注"高比例新能源消纳"创新调控方向，烟威特高压登 州升压环评公示 新型电力系统从系统运行端看，需聚焦"高比例新能源消纳"，创新调控 模式。需通过提升惯 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant growth in the production and sales of power and other batteries in October 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 50.5% in production and 50.8% in sales [5][12][14]. - In October 2025, the total production of power and other batteries reached 170.6 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a cumulative production of 1,292.5 GWh for the year, reflecting a 51.3% year-on-year growth [10][11]. - The sales volume of power batteries in October was 124.3 GWh, marking a 56.6% year-on-year increase, while the cumulative sales for the year reached 910.3 GWh, up 49.9% compared to the previous year [19][36]. Group 2 - The export volume of power and other batteries in October 2025 was 28.2 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 33.5% [24][25]. - Power battery exports alone reached 19.4 GWh in October, with a year-on-year growth of 76.7%, while the cumulative export for the year was 148.5 GWh, reflecting a 37.2% increase [25][41]. - The article notes that the cumulative export of other batteries for the year increased by 58.3% [26]. Group 3 - In October 2025, the domestic power battery installation volume was 84.1 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [45]. - The cumulative installation volume for the year reached 578.0 GWh, reflecting a 42.4% year-on-year growth [45]. - The article details that the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 80.3% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 43.7% [45][51]. Group 4 - The article provides insights into the market concentration of power battery installations, indicating that the top 10 companies accounted for 94.7% of the total installation volume in October 2025 [57]. - The leading companies in terms of installation volume include CATL, BYD, and Zhongchuang Innovation, with significant market shares [62][68]. - The average battery capacity per vehicle in October was 55.0 kWh, remaining stable compared to the previous month [58].

Core Viewpoint - The global commercial and industrial energy storage shipments are projected to reach 40 GWh in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 110% [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The top 10 companies in the global commercial and industrial energy storage market include: Ruipu Lanjun, CATL, EVE Energy, Haicheng Energy, Fudi Battery, Penghui Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, Chuangneng New Energy, Zhongchu Innovation, and Ganfeng Lithium [1].

每经AI快讯，锂电股集体走低，截至发稿，中创新航(03931.HK)跌6.66%，报31.1港元；赣锋锂业 (01772.HK)跌5.75%，报59.05港元；天齐锂业(09696.HK)跌5%，报54.15港元；宁德时代(03750.HK)跌 2.47%，报513港元。 ...

消息面上，自10月中旬以来，碳酸锂价格近期持续上行，累计涨幅近30%。11月18日，广期所碳酸锂主 力合约盘中涨超4%后回落。中信期货分析师杨飞表示，预计11月下旬到12月碳酸锂需求保持强势，需 密切关注明年一季度淡季的需求表现。 大和发布研报称，目前对明年锂价上行空间仍抱保守看法。该行预测明年锂价将维持于每吨7.5万至9万 元人民币区间，较当前的每吨8.5万元水平上行空间有限，相信中国锂价于今年第四季至明年第一季仍 然偏软，主要由于农历新年需求疲弱及全球电动车迎来淡季。 智通财经APP获悉，锂电股集体走低，截至发稿，中创新航(03931)跌6.66%，报31.1港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)跌5.75%，报59.05港元；天齐锂业(09696)跌5%，报54.15港元；宁德时代(03750)跌2.47%，报513 港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage market has seen a significant surge in demand for lithium battery materials, leading to substantial price increases, making the lithium battery materials sector a standout performer in the A-share market [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - Since the third quarter, the demand for lithium battery materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate has rapidly increased due to the explosion of the energy storage market [1] - A carbon lithium production company in Sichuan reported that even with full production capacity, they cannot meet customer demand, indicating a strong market demand [1] - The chairman of Ganfeng Lithium predicts that global lithium carbonate demand will reach 1.55 million tons in 2025, with a potential increase to 1.9 million tons by 2026, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate may see upward pressure if demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton [1] - The downstream investment and operation segments of energy storage are expected to pass on excess profits to upstream materials, batteries, and integration sectors, indicating a potential for price increases across the lithium battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Industry Opportunities - CITIC Construction continues to favor materials, particularly lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium iron phosphate, anode materials, separators, and battery segments, highlighting opportunities in these areas [3] - The upcoming peak production season is expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance, driving prices higher [4] - Changes in pricing models are anticipated, which may further impact the market dynamics [5] Group 4: Related Companies - Key companies in the lithium battery materials sector include Ganfeng Lithium (01772), Tianqi Lithium (09696), and Zhongwei New Materials (02579) [6] - In the energy storage sector, notable companies include BYD (01211), Zhongxin Innovation (03931), and Ruipu Lanjun (00666) [6]

Core Insights - The global commercial and industrial energy storage shipments are projected to reach 40 GWh from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 110% [2]. Company Rankings - The top 10 companies in the energy storage sector include: 1. Ruipu Lanjun 2. CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) 3. EVE Energy 4. Hithium 5. Faraday Battery 6. Penghui Energy 7. Guoxuan High-Tech 8. Chuang Neng New Energy 9. CALB (China Aviation Lithium Battery) 10. Ganfeng Lithium [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for CALB Group Co Ltd with a target price of HK$33.40, indicating an expected share price return of 3.3% [6]. Core Insights - CALB's battery shipment volume guidance for 2025E is set at 110GWh, with expectations to exceed this target based on year-to-date trends and production plans for the last two months of the year. For 2026E, the guidance is 180GWh, comprising 110GWh for EV batteries and 70GWh for ESS batteries [2][3]. - The completed battery capacity is projected to be over 160GWh by the end of 2025 and over 230GWh by the end of 2026, with effective capacities expected to be 130GWh and nearly 200GWh, respectively [2]. - Demand for ESS batteries is strong, with CALB operating at full capacity in 2025. The company anticipates sustained capacity amid shipment bottlenecks and strong demand growth from both existing and new clients in 2026-27E [3]. - Management expects a slight increase in the average selling price (ASP) of ESS batteries due to tight supply, but significant increases are unlikely. Margins in the ESS battery segment are expected to rise in 2026-27E due to increased shipments to overseas markets and higher-margin ESS system shipments [4]. - For EV batteries, effective capacity is expected to reach 85GWh in 2025E and 130GWh in 2026E. Shipment growth for EV batteries is anticipated to remain strong, with improved margins expected as shipments to international OEMs increase [5]. Summary by Sections Battery Shipment - CALB's battery shipment volume guidance for 2025E is 110GWh, with expectations to exceed this target. For 2026E, the guidance is 180GWh, including 110GWh for EV batteries and 70GWh for ESS batteries [2]. Battery Capacity - Completed battery capacity is expected to be over 160GWh in 2025 and over 230GWh in 2026, with effective capacities projected at 130GWh and nearly 200GWh, respectively [2]. ESS Battery - ESS battery demand is strong, with full utilization expected in 2025. Capacity is anticipated to be sustained in 2026 amid strong demand growth [3]. ESS Battery Price and Margin - Management expects a slight increase in ESS battery ASP due to tight supply, with margins expected to rise in 2026-27E due to increased shipments to overseas markets [4]. EV Battery - Effective capacity for EV batteries is projected at 85GWh in 2025E and 130GWh in 2026E, with strong shipment growth and improved margins expected [5].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery materials sector is experiencing a comprehensive price increase, which is expected to significantly enhance the profitability of related companies [2] Group 1: Lithium Battery Materials Price Increases - As of November 13, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 131,000 yuan/ton, up approximately 110% from early October, with a peak price exceeding 142,000 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of electrolyte is 25,700 yuan/ton, having increased by 7,000 yuan/ton (40%) since early October, with a maximum price of 29,000 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of VC additive is 87,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a cumulative increase of 41,000 yuan/ton (about 90%) since early October [2] - The average price of lithium iron phosphate is 36,900 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan/ton (about 10%) since early October [2] - The average price of wet-process separators is 0.78 yuan/sq.m, having risen by 0.03 yuan/sq.m (about 5%) since early October [2] Group 2: Energy Storage System Demand - The cumulative bidding scale for domestic energy storage systems reached 166.3 GWh from January to October, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 172% [3] - The average price of 4-hour energy storage systems is 0.52 yuan/Wh, which has increased by 0.06 yuan/Wh month-on-month [3] - New energy storage installations totaled 85.5 GWh from January to October, showing a year-on-year growth of 71% [3] - The total scale of newly registered energy storage projects in October exceeded 128.9 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 224% [3] Group 3: AI Data Center Capital Expenditure - Major internet companies are increasing capital expenditures to meet the explosive demand from AI and cloud computing, with Google raising its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to between 91 billion and 93 billion USD, and Meta increasing it to between 70 billion and 72 billion USD [4] - OpenAI plans to launch the "Stargate" data center in 2026, with a planned capacity exceeding 8 GW and an expected investment of over 450 billion USD in the next three years [4] Group 4: Smart Meter Price Recovery - The third round of bidding for smart meters by the State Grid has seen a significant price rebound due to new specifications and changes in pricing standards [5] - The recovery in smart meter prices is expected to improve the profitability and performance elasticity of related companies in the meter industry [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include leading firms in the lithium battery industry such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [2] - In the energy storage sector, key companies include Sungrow Power Supply, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [3] - For AI data center-related investments, companies like Jinpan Technology and others are recommended [4] - In the smart meter sector, companies such as Haixing Electric and others are highlighted [5]

Core Viewpoint - The conference themed "Building AI Ecosystem, Creating Energy Civilization" highlighted the rapid development and strategic planning of the company in the new energy sector, emphasizing collaboration and innovation in achieving carbon neutrality and sustainable growth [2][5][16]. Strategic Development - The company has achieved rapid production and operational success since establishing its base in Hefei in 2021, becoming a model for government-enterprise collaboration [5]. - The chairman emphasized the importance of AI and technological innovation in reshaping the energy industry, aiming for carbon neutrality in core operations by 2030 and across the value chain by 2040 [7][8]. Product Innovation - The company launched a new generation of products targeting the power and energy storage markets, including the "Top Flow" series of cylindrical batteries with a range exceeding 1000 kilometers and ultra-fast charging capabilities [8][9]. - In the commercial sector, the "Zhi Yuan" series offers high safety, long lifespan, and wide temperature range solutions, with significant advancements in battery technology [9][10]. - The energy storage solutions include high-capacity cells and systems designed for long-term reliability and efficiency, with a focus on reducing failure rates and enhancing lifecycle performance [10][12]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has formed deep strategic partnerships with leading enterprises across various sectors, including shipping, commercial vehicles, and energy storage, to enhance collaborative efforts and expand market reach [12][14]. - The partnerships aim to foster technological co-creation and market expansion, contributing to a sustainable energy ecosystem [14]. Recognition and Future Vision - The company awarded outstanding partners in a ceremony, recognizing their contributions to mutual success [15]. - The company remains committed to its mission of benefiting humanity through innovation and collaboration, aiming to contribute significantly to a better future [16].