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钴专题报告解读
2025-06-24 15:30
Summary of Cobalt Industry Report Industry Overview - The cobalt market is expected to face a shortage of 30,000 to 40,000 tons in 2025 due to the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and limited new supply from Indonesia [2][3] - The global cobalt resources are primarily concentrated in DRC (56% of reserves), Australia (16%), and Indonesia (6%), with China having a high dependency on imports [2][7] Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC government announced a four-month ban on cobalt raw material exports on February 22, 2025, which was extended for another three months on June 21, 2025. This is expected to reduce the DRC's annual production of 220,000 tons by over 100,000 tons [3] - Despite a previous surplus of cobalt, the current market is expected to see a shortage due to the DRC's export restrictions and limited new supply from Indonesia [3][4] - The cobalt demand is primarily driven by the lithium battery sector, with 43% of consumption in power batteries and 30% in consumer electronics [4][15] Price Forecast - Short-term projections indicate cobalt prices could rise to around 300,000 yuan/ton due to inventory depletion and upstream reluctance to sell [5] - The long-term price expectation is between 250,000 to 300,000 yuan/ton, supported by DRC government policies and potential quota systems [5] Major Players - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. (LMO) is projected to become the largest cobalt supplier globally, with production expected to reach 114,200 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 100% [2][9] - Huayou Cobalt is also highlighted as a key player with significant production capacity in both DRC and Indonesia, potentially benefiting from price increases [6][18] Emerging Supply Sources - Indonesia is expected to become a significant new supply source, with wet nickel production capacity rapidly increasing, projected to yield 40,000 to 50,000 tons of cobalt by 2025 [10][13] Market Challenges - The domestic cobalt industry in China is facing a decline in capacity utilization due to rising raw material prices leading to cost imbalances [14] - The shift in import forms from refined cobalt to crude hydroxide forms is noted, with potential impacts on the domestic market starting from July 2025 due to DRC's export restrictions [4][12] Future Demand Trends - The demand for cobalt in the lithium battery sector is expected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% anticipated over the next few years [16][17] - The industrial application of cobalt is also projected to see stable growth, particularly in hard alloys and high-temperature alloys [17] Conclusion - The cobalt market is poised for significant changes due to geopolitical factors, supply chain dynamics, and evolving demand patterns, with key players like LMO and Huayou Cobalt positioned to benefit from these trends.
洛阳钼业回应刚果(金)钴出口禁令延长:当地矿区生产运营活动正常进行
news flash· 2025-06-23 04:23
洛阳钼业回应刚果(金)钴出口禁令延长:当地矿区生产运营活动正常进行 金十数据6月23日讯,刚果(金)战略矿产市场监管控制局6月21日宣布,将今年2月出台的刚果(金)钴出口 禁令继续延长三个月。针对此事,全球最大钴生产商洛阳钼业于6月23日回应称,目前,公司TFM及 KFM矿区生产运营活动正常进行,预计该临时禁令的延长不会对经营业绩产生重大影响。该公司同时 表示:"自首次禁令发布以来,公司始终与刚果(金)政府及行业管理机构保持密切沟通。针对新的情 况,公司将继续保持与相关各方的沟通,密切跟踪政策进展。" (界面) ...
洛阳钼业: 洛阳钼业2024年年度权益分派实施公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-22 08:19
Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.255 CNY per share (including tax) for A shares [1][2] - The dividend distribution was approved at the annual shareholders' meeting held on May 30, 2025 [1][2] - The record date for the dividend is June 26, 2025, with the ex-dividend date and payment date both set for June 27, 2025 [1][4] Dividend Distribution Details - The total number of shares eligible for the dividend distribution is 21,499,240,619, with A shares accounting for 17,460,842,176 after excluding 104,930,443 shares held in the buyback account [2][3] - The total cash dividend to be distributed amounts to approximately 5.46 billion CNY, with 4.45 billion CNY allocated to A shares [2][3] - The calculation for the ex-dividend reference price for A shares is based on the formula: (previous closing price - cash dividend) / (1 + change in circulating shares ratio) [2][3] Taxation and Payment Procedures - Individual shareholders and mutual funds will have their tax liabilities calculated based on their holding periods, with a tax rate of 20% for holdings of one month or less and 10% for longer periods [4][5] - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) will have a uniform withholding tax rate of 10% applied to their dividends [5] - For investors in Hong Kong's Stock Exchange (including both individuals and corporations), the actual cash dividend after tax will be 0.2295 CNY per share [5][6]
洛阳钼业(603993) - 上海市通力律师事务所关于洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司差异化分红事项之专项法律意见书
2025-06-22 07:45
上海市通力律师事务所 关于洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 差异化分红事项之专项法律意见书 致:洛阳栾川铝业集团股份有限公司 上海市通力律师事务所(以下简称"本所")接受洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司(以下简 称"洛阳钼业"或"公司")的委托,指派本所张征轶律师、徐安昌律师(以下合称"本所律 师")根据《中华人民共和国公司法》(以下简称"《公司法》")、《中华人民共和国证券 法》(以下简称"《证券法》")、《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7号 -- 回购 股份》(以下简称"《自律监管指引》")、《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指南第2号 -- 业务办理》等法律、法规及规范性文件(以下简称"法律、法规及规范性文件",该等 法律、法规及规范性文件不包括香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区的法律法规) 以及《洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司章程》(以下简称"《公司章程》")的规定,就洛阳 铝业 2024 年度利润分配所涉及的差异化分红特殊除权除息处理(以下简称"本次差异化分 红")相关事项出具法律意见。 为出具本法律意见书. 本所律师已经严格履行法定职责,遵循了勤勉尽责和诚实信用原 则,对洛阳铝业本次差异化分红所 ...
洛阳钼业(603993) - 洛阳钼业2024年年度权益分派实施公告
2025-06-22 07:45
证券代码:603993 证券简称:洛阳钼业 公告编号:2025-038 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 重要内容提示: 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.255元(含税) 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权(息)日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 2025/6/26 | - | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/27 | 差异化分红送转:是 公司 H 股股东的现金红利派发不适用本公告,具体可参阅公司在香 港联合交易所有限公司网站(www.hkexnews.hk)发布的相关公告。 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 30日的2024年年度股东大会 审议通过。有关股东大会决议公告于 2025 年 5 月 31 日刊登在《上海 证券报》、上海证券交易所网站和本公司网站。 二、 分配方案 1. 发放年度:2 ...
钴行业专题:供需失衡背景下,刚果(金)政策调整主导钴价
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-22 03:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the cobalt industry [1] Core Insights - The global cobalt supply chain is highly dependent on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which accounts for over 50% of global cobalt reserves and over 70% of production. In 2024, DRC's cobalt production is expected to reach approximately 220,000 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, representing 76.4% of global market share [4][30] - Indonesia's nickel-cobalt projects are reshaping the industry landscape, with MHP production expected to grow significantly, leading to a projected cobalt output of 28,000 metric tons in 2024, accounting for about 10% of global production [4][42] - The lithium battery sector is the main driver of global cobalt consumption, with a projected consumption of 222,000 metric tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 14%. The electric vehicle sector is expected to consume about 95,000 metric tons, a 21% increase [4][42] - The DRC's policy adjustments in response to supply-demand imbalances have led to fluctuations in cobalt prices, with domestic prices expected to rebound above 250,000 yuan per ton in 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's cobalt production is projected to grow significantly due to the performance of major mining companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, which is expected to produce approximately 114,200 metric tons of cobalt in 2024, a 106% increase year-on-year [4][30] - The DRC's decision to suspend cobalt raw material exports for four months aims to address oversupply issues, which is expected to impact global cobalt supply by over 100,000 metric tons [4] Industry Structure - The cobalt industry is characterized by a concentration of resources, with major players including Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and others controlling significant portions of the market [4][16] - Indonesia's MHP production is rapidly increasing, with a projected output of 323,000 metric tons of nickel in 2024, which will also enhance cobalt production [4][42] Market Trends - The report highlights a recovery in global demand for consumer electronics, with smartphone shipments expected to reach 1.24 billion units in 2024, marking a 6.4% increase [4] - The DRC's cobalt price adjustments and export policies are expected to influence market dynamics significantly, with long-term implications for pricing power in the cobalt market [4]
全球十五大铜矿企业一季报汇总:海外铜矿企业有两家产量下滑多,增长主要依靠中资企业
Huaxin Securities· 2025-06-20 09:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the copper industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the production growth of overseas large copper mining companies is low, and there are frequent disruptions. The lack of new large copper mining projects in the coming years will continue to constrain copper supply [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Production in Major Producing Countries - Chile's copper production from January to April 2025 reached 1.752 million metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.57% (+60,300 tons). The growth is primarily driven by the Escondida project due to higher mining intensity and improved ore grades. Peru's copper production during the same period was 892,000 metric tons, up 5.59% (+47,200 tons), with significant contributions from the Las Bambas and Toromocho mines [4][18]. 2. Overseas Copper Mining Companies' Production - The total copper production of 15 major copper mining companies in Q1 2025 was 3.012 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1% (+3,000 tons). However, excluding three Chinese companies, the production of 12 overseas companies fell by 3.79% (-96,100 tons) to 2.436 million tons. Notably, Freeport and Glencore experienced significant declines of 20% and 29.95%, respectively [5][9]. 3. Growth in Chinese Copper Mining Companies - Three Chinese companies reported substantial production increases in Q1 2025: Minmetals Resources (+76.1%), Zijin Mining (+9.5%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (+15.7%). The growth for Minmetals was largely attributed to the Las Bambas mine in Peru, which produced 95,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70.9% (+39,700 tons) [7]. 4. Future Project Developments - The report notes a scarcity of new or expanded copper mining projects. The Salvador project by Codelco is currently ramping up production, while First Quantum's Kansanshi expansion is expected to contribute additional capacity starting in H2 2025. Other long-term projects include Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi and Antofagasta's Centinela Phase II, with expected production increases in the coming years [8]. 5. Production Summary of Major Companies - Codelco's Q1 2025 production was 324,000 tons, a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year. BHP's total production was 513,200 tons, up 10.18%, primarily due to the Escondida mine. Freeport's production fell to 393,720 tons, down 20% year-on-year, while Glencore's production dropped to 167,900 tons, a decrease of 29.95% [47][54][60][69].
有色金属大宗金属周报:库存持续去化,铝价强势运行-20250615
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-06-15 12:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to mixed economic indicators from the US, with a recent decline in copper prices following lower-than-expected CPI data [5] - Aluminum prices are supported by continuous inventory depletion and tight spot supply, while alumina prices have seen a slight decline [5] - Lithium prices are under pressure at the bottom, with a slight increase in carbonate lithium prices, but the market is awaiting further production cuts from mining sources [5] - Cobalt prices have seen a slight increase, with attention on potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact supply [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview 1.1 Important Information - US May CPI was reported at 2.4%, slightly below expectations, indicating potential economic impacts [9] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iran, may affect market stability [9] 1.2 Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.79% [11] - The sector's performance was led by magnetic materials, gold, and cobalt, while copper, lithium, and aluminum lagged [11] 1.3 Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.13, with a slight increase of 0.59 [18] - The PB_LF for the sector is 2.21, reflecting a 0.07 increase [18] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices saw a decline of 1.44% in London and 1.17% in Shanghai, with significant inventory reductions [23] - The copper smelting profit margin has worsened, indicating financial pressures on producers [23] 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices increased by 1.88% in London and 1.79% in Shanghai, supported by inventory depletion [34] - The profit margin for aluminum producers improved significantly due to rising prices [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices saw a decline, with mining profits narrowing [48] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices remained stable, while nickel prices experienced a slight decline, with profitability for domestic nickel enterprises shrinking [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.75%, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased [72] - The profitability of lithium refining remains negative, indicating challenges in the sector [72] 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have seen a slight increase, with domestic refining margins improving [84]
有色:基本金属行业周报:地缘冲突叠加美元指数下跌,黄金价格本周强势-20250615
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-15 06:33
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]
洛阳钼业: 洛阳钼业关于变更法定代表人并换发营业执照的公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-13 11:38
Core Points - The company has elected Liu Jianfeng as the chairman of the board and legal representative during the third temporary meeting of the seventh board of directors held on May 30, 2025 [1] - The company has completed the necessary business registration changes and obtained a new business license from the Luoyang Market Supervision Administration, with the legal representative now being Liu Jianfeng [1] - The registered capital of the company is 4.299848124 billion RMB, and it was established on December 22, 1999 [1] Company Information - The company is named Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Industry Group Co., Ltd. and operates as a joint-stock company with investments from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [1] - The company's business scope includes the mining, selection, smelting, and deep processing of tungsten and molybdenum series products, as well as the import and export of necessary raw materials and machinery [1]