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钴 | 行业动态:刚果(金)发布钴配额,战略重估正当时
中金有色研究· 2025-10-15 06:55
Industry Overview - On October 11, the Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Bureau of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (ARECOMS) announced details of cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2023, calculated based on mining companies' export situations until the end of 2024 [1]. Commentary - The export quotas are primarily allocated to mining companies and the Congolese government platform, with no quotas for smelters. For the remainder of this year, the cobalt export quota is set at 18,100 tons; for 2026/27, the total export is 96,600 tons, of which 87,000 tons are basic quotas and 9,600 tons are strategic quotas from ARECOMS. Major companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources have received significant quotas, accounting for 62% of the total [2]. - The tightening supply is expected to drive up cobalt prices, with a strategic re-evaluation of cobalt's value occurring at this time. The total export quota for 2026/27 represents only 44% of the DRC's cobalt production in 2024, with the basic quota accounting for just 40%. The demand for cobalt is anticipated to increase due to the advantages of ternary batteries in high-end, long-lasting markets and the advancement of solid-state battery technology [2]. - The DRC's export ban aims to boost cobalt prices and prevent the low-cost outflow of strategic resources while enhancing international influence through resource control [2]. Supply Dynamics - A significant reduction in supply is expected to lead to larger price increases for raw materials. The DRC's cobalt production is projected to account for 76% of global supply in 2024, with a reduction of over 50% impacting global availability. As of October 11, cobalt intermediate products, MB cobalt, and metal cobalt prices have increased by 185%, 107%, and 123% respectively since February 24 [3]. - The pricing of cobalt products may be dominated by platforms that control spot cobalt raw materials, with a few platforms holding pricing power, potentially increasing price volatility. Glencore, the DRC government platform, and Eurasian Resources hold quotas of 20%, 17%, and 11% respectively [3]. Company Quotas - The following companies have been allocated export quotas for October to December 2025, with their respective basic quota shares and estimated quotas for 2026: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 1,300 tons in October, 2,600 tons in November, 2,600 tons in December, with a 35.9% share [5]. - Glencore: 785 tons in October, 1,570 tons in November, 1,570 tons in December, with a 21.7% share [5]. - Eurasian Resources: 425 tons in October, 850 tons in November, 850 tons in December, with an 11.7% share [5]. - The total quotas for all listed companies sum up to 18,125 tons for Q4 2025, with an estimated total of 87,000 tons for 2026 [6].
A股隐形黄金股,曝光
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-15 05:41
Group 1: Market Overview - The gold bull market is expected to continue, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing the strongest performance this year, having increased over 74% as of October 14 [1] - The precious metals index has surged over 90%, leading the secondary industry rankings [1] - A total of 29 stocks have doubled in price this year, with notable performers including Zhongzhou Special Materials, Zhaojin Mining, and Xinyi Silver [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Trends - Precious metals have dominated the commodity market this year, with gold prices surpassing $4,100 per ounce as of October 14, following a breakthrough of $3,000 in March [2] - Factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and escalating trade tensions are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, further pushing prices up [2] - Global central banks are increasing their gold purchases, and there is a trend of reallocating funds from U.S. Treasury securities to gold among various investors [2] Group 3: Hidden Gold Concept Stocks - The rise in precious metal stocks has led to increased interest in hidden gold concept stocks, with 60 stocks identified outside the precious metals sector [3] - Companies like Eurasia Group and Fuda Alloy have market capitalizations below 3 billion yuan, indicating potential for growth [3] - South Mining Group is focusing on gold and copper resources, with a project in Zimbabwe expected to yield clear investment returns [3] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - TBEA announced an annual gold production of 2.5 to 3 tons [4] - Chengze Mining reported gold production of 500 kg in 2022 and 255 kg in the first half of 2023 [4] - Shengtun Mining plans to acquire all issued shares of Canadian Loncor for approximately 1.9 billion USD [5] Group 5: Stock Performance - A list of A-share gold concept stocks shows significant year-to-date gains, with Pengxin Resources leading at 152.58% increase [6] - Other notable performers include Chaoshengguo and Huayu Mining, both with gains exceeding 149% [6] - The data indicates a strong bullish sentiment in the gold sector, with many stocks experiencing substantial price increases [6]
行业报告行业点评:钴:刚果(金)配额已出,重视钴短中期逻辑强化
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-10-15 03:44
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The recent quota policy from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has set a total quota of 96,600 tons, with a base quota remaining unchanged at 87,000 tons. Major companies receiving quotas include Luoyang Molybdenum (36% share), Glencore (22% share), and Eurasian Resources (12% share) [2][3] - The quota distribution aligns with expectations, although the local DRC company EGC received a quota despite minimal past exports, likely due to local policy support. The introduction of a 10% royalty fee on cobalt sales will significantly increase local revenue [3][4] Summary by Sections Quota Distribution - The quota distribution is based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024. The current quota aligns with expectations, with the DRC's local company EGC receiving a quota despite limited past exports [3] - The total quota of 96,600 tons represents a 56% decrease compared to last year's exports of nearly 220,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4] Market Outlook - The current inventory situation is critical, with an estimated four months of inventory across the supply chain. This could lead to increased supply tension if any segment of the chain holds excess stock [4] - As of October 13, prices for cobalt sulfate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery-grade cobalt have increased by 40%, 38%, and 29% respectively from September 22 to October 13, indicating strong downstream demand [4] Investment Recommendations - Short-term expectations include continued inventory depletion and potential price increases due to low inventory levels. The long-term logic suggests a direct supply-demand balance or even a shortage, leading to an upward adjustment in cobalt prices [5] - Companies not significantly affected by DRC policies, such as Huayou Cobalt and Likin Resources, as well as Luoyang Molybdenum, which has now clarified its quota status, are recommended for investment [5]
洛阳钼业跌2.06%,成交额20.97亿元,主力资金净流出1.02亿元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-15 03:03
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuations in its stock price, with a notable increase in its stock price year-to-date, but a slight decline in recent trading days [1][2] - As of October 15, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price was reported at 15.68 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 335.46 billion yuan and a trading volume of 20.97 billion yuan [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 145.11%, with a 0.13% decline over the last five trading days, a 24.64% increase over the last 20 days, and a 93.58% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The company's main business revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2] - As of June 30, the number of shareholders in Luoyang Molybdenum was 237,500, a decrease of 15.95% from the previous period, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Luoyang Molybdenum include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 648 million shares, an increase of 69.41 million shares from the previous period [3] - Other notable shareholders include Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, with holdings of 138 million shares and 125 million shares, respectively, both showing increases from the previous period [3]
券商晨会精华 | 现在是把握券商板块战略性修复机会的关键时期
智通财经网· 2025-10-15 00:44
Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index both dropping over 4% during the session. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.58 trillion, an increase of 221.5 billion compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.99% [1]. Brokerage Sector Insights - Huatai Securities emphasized that now is a critical period to seize strategic repair opportunities in the brokerage sector, driven by multiple factors including policy, capital, performance, and valuation. The capital market is undergoing profound reforms, transitioning into a new phase of co-development in investment and financing. The low interest rate environment is accelerating the migration of institutional and retail funds to the equity market, continuously bringing in incremental capital. With market expansion and increased activity, brokerage firms are seeing improvements in their business performance and profitability. However, the sector's valuation remains relatively low, making this an opportune time for strategic investments [2]. Cobalt and Rare Earths Strategy - CITIC Securities highlighted the importance of strategic allocation opportunities in cobalt and rare earths. The details of the cobalt export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo have been finalized, with major companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Glencore, and Eurasian Resources holding the top three quota shares at 35.9%, 27.3%, and 21.6% respectively. The total quota for 2026 and 2027 is set at 96,600 tons, which includes 87,000 tons of basic quotas and 9,600 tons of strategic quotas. Under this quota system, only about 44% of production can be exported, resulting in a reduction of over 100,000 tons. Based on estimates of 270,000 tons supply and 230,000 tons demand in 2024, the market is expected to shift from a surplus of about 70,000 tons to a shortage of about 30,000 tons, potentially driving cobalt prices higher. Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce has reinforced export controls on rare earths, further solidifying their strategic importance [3]. North Exchange Long-term Value - Galaxy Securities pointed out that the North Exchange sector possesses long-term investment value. With the introduction of the specialized and innovative index, steady progress in new stock issuances, and the realization of more merger and acquisition projects, the trading activity and market attention towards the North Exchange are expected to remain high. For investment strategies in the second half of 2025, two main directions are recommended: 1) Focus on new productive forces in the North Exchange, particularly in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and new consumption, where companies have "scarce" attributes in the A-share market; 2) Conduct bottom-up selection based on financial indicators, focusing on companies with high performance growth, strong R&D investment, significant capacity release potential, and strong growth prospects [4].
刚果(金)确定今年底前的钴出口配额分配方案
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-10-14 15:49
Core Insights - The Congolese government announced a distribution plan for cobalt export quotas for the remainder of the year, marking the end of an eight-month cobalt export ban that began in February [1] Group 1: Export Quota Details - The new export quotas will take effect on October 16 and will be allocated based on each company's total export volume over the past three years [1] - Approximately 18,000 tons of cobalt can be exported by mining companies for the remainder of this year, with annual export limits set at 96,600 tons for both 2026 and 2027, which is less than half of last year's production [1] Group 2: Major Companies and Their Quotas - China Molybdenum, the world's largest cobalt producer, has been approved to export 6,500 tons of cobalt by the end of 2025, accounting for 36% of the total quota [1] - It is projected that China Molybdenum will export 31,200 tons of cobalt in 2026, representing 27% of its total production in Congo last year, which was 114,000 tons, over 40% of global production [1] - Glencore and Eurasian Resources, the second and third largest cobalt producers globally, have been granted export quotas of 3,925 tons and 2,125 tons, respectively, making up 22% and 12% of the total quota [1] - Other Chinese mining companies, including Huagong Mining, Huayou Cobalt, China Nonferrous Metal Industry Group, Minmetals Resources, Zijin Mining, and Jinchuan Group, along with some other local producers, have also received export quotas proportionally [1]
洛阳钼业(603993) - 洛阳钼业H股市场公告
2025-10-14 10:15
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 董事長 CMOC Group Limited* 中華人民共和國河南省洛陽市 二零二五年十月十四日 (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (股份代號:03993) 於本公告日期,本公司之執行董事為劉建鋒先生、孫瑞文先生及闕朝陽先生;本 公司之非執行董事為林久新先生及蔣理先生;及本公司之獨立非執行董事為王開 國先生、顧紅雨女士及程鈺先生。 董事會召開日期 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司(「本公司」)董事會(「董事會」)茲通告謹訂於二 零二五年十月二十四日(星期五)舉行董事會會議,藉以(其中包括但不限於)考 慮及批准刊發本公司及其附屬公司截至二零二五年九月三十日止九個月的季度業 績,以及處理任何其他事項。 承董事會命 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 劉建鋒 * 僅供識別 ...
港口航运龙头“秒”涨停!新凯来概念股震荡拉升
Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index down 3.99% [2] - The total trading volume exceeded 2.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 222.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The Asia-Pacific markets also saw declines, with the Nikkei 225 down 2.58%, the KOSPI down 0.63%, and the Hang Seng Index down 1.77% [3] Port and Shipping Sector - The port and shipping sector showed resilience, with Nanjing Port hitting the daily limit and achieving two consecutive limit-ups [4] - Other stocks in the sector, such as Ningbo Shipping and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, also experienced gains [4] - Analysts suggest that shipping companies may reallocate global vessel deployments and port calls to reduce costs, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and increased freight rates [5] - China's foreign trade saw a year-on-year increase of 4% in the first three quarters, directly driving an increase in port throughput [6] Semiconductor Sector - The New Kylin concept stocks saw significant gains, with New Lai Materials up over 14% and Deep Textile A up over 9% [7] - New Kylin will showcase at the 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecosystem Expo from October 15 to 17, highlighting its commitment to semiconductor equipment and solutions [9] - Deloitte's report predicts that the global semiconductor industry sales will reach $697 billion by 2025, driven by generative AI and data center construction, with China being a major market for semiconductor demand [9]
洛阳钼业(03993.HK)拟10月24日举行董事会会议审批季度业绩
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-14 08:37
格隆汇10月14日丨洛阳钼业(03993.HK)发布公告,董事会谨订于2025年10月24日(星期五)举行董事会 会议,藉以(其中包括但不限于)考虑及批准刊发公司及其附属公司截至2025年9月30日止九个月的季 度业绩,以及处理任何其他事项。 ...
洛阳钼业(03993) - 董事会召开日期
2025-10-14 08:30
(於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (股份代號:03993) 董事會召開日期 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司(「本公司」)董事會(「董事會」)茲通告謹訂於二 零二五年十月二十四日(星期五)舉行董事會會議,藉以(其中包括但不限於)考 慮及批准刊發本公司及其附屬公司截至二零二五年九月三十日止九個月的季度業 績,以及處理任何其他事項。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 CMOC Group Limited* 承董事會命 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 * 僅供識別 董事長 中華人民共和國河南省洛陽市 二零二五年十月十四日 於本公告日期,本公司之執行董事為劉建鋒先生、孫瑞文先生及闕朝陽先生;本 公司之非執行董事為林久新先生及蔣理先生;及本公司之獨立非執行董事為王開 國先生、顧紅雨女士及程鈺先生。 劉建鋒 ...