高恩德表示，从中期来看，微软正在重新定位Microsoft 365 Copilot付费产品的价值主张。虽然它主要被 视为Office应用内的AI个人助手，但它也为许可证持有者提供了"在不断增长的智能体AI世界中的强大 成本控制承诺"。这是因为Microsoft 365 Copilot许可证持有者获得对Copilot智能体的无限制访问权限。 高恩德表示，随着组织部署越来越多的Copilot智能体，许可证的价值主张将扩展为包括对智能体的无限 制访问。 微软首次公布Microsoft 365 Copilot采用情况，声称拥有1500万付费座席。微软首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德 拉在公司本周三的财报电话会议上表示，企业聊天用户数量有"数倍之多"，他指的是CopilotChat，这是 一个针对Microsoft 365客户免费提供的简化版AI助手。 分析人士表示，考虑到微软推广Microsoft 365 Copilot的力度，以及将其定位为AI战略中心的努力，1500 万付费用户座席的数字低于预期。Forrester副总裁兼首席分析师J·P·高恩德表示，微软披露的1500万 Microsoft 365 Copilot付费用户 ...

报告显示，摩根士丹利采用修正后的折旧模型，针对在建工程余额上升带来的偏差进行调整，估算微 软、甲骨文、Meta以及Alphabet四家公司未来四年累计折旧费用或将超过6800亿美元。该行同时指出， 传统预测方法因未充分考虑资本支出与资产投用之间的时滞，可能低估未来资产折旧幅度。 曾成功预测2008年金融危机的伯里，在去年年末也发出类似警告。他指出，科技巨头通过延长资产有效 使用寿命压低折旧费用，人为抬高收益水平，预计2026年至2028年期间，大型科技公司将因此虚增1760 亿美元利润。他特别提及，到2028年甲骨文利润或被夸大26.9%，Meta利润或被夸大20.8%。伯里称科 技巨头在会计处理上使用"把戏"，将原本仅2至3年产品周期的英伟达芯片和服务器等计算设备的折旧周 期延长至6年。 大型科技公司的资本支出持续走高，或将推动未来数年折旧费用大幅攀升。摩根士丹利表示，这一趋势 尚未完全体现在市场普遍预期中，同时也引发知名做空投资人迈克尔·伯里的关注。 美银分析师Justin Post此前发布报告提到，华尔街对折旧费用增长速度反应较为迟钝。随着谷歌、Meta 和亚马逊2024年至2025年资本支出大幅增长， ...

在Parmy Olson看来，AI行业早已对天量押注"麻木"，因此黄仁勋对承诺的谨慎格外值得关注。《华尔 街日报》提到，黄仁勋不仅强调投资不具约束力，还私下质疑OpenAI的经营与执行纪律，这为OpenAI 的融资叙事与合作伙伴信心投下变量。 对投资者而言，这种表态意味着两层信号：其一，围绕OpenAI的资本与算力规划可能仍在快速调整； 其二，即便是最核心的产业伙伴之一，也在重新评估风险敞口与回报路径。 英伟达、OpenAI与微软构成的AI合作链条，正因"执行力"与"经营纪律"的分歧出现松动迹象。 周三，彭博社科技作家Parmy Olson在最新专栏文章中表示，黄仁勋对OpenAI的犹豫不仅是单笔投资的 风向变化，更像是在提醒微软，独占模型与知识产权并不自动转化为产品胜势，市场竞争正在从"谁的 模型更强"转向"谁更会落地"。 Nvidia首席执行官黄仁勋近期向业内人士表示，他此前宣布对OpenAI的1000亿美元投资"并不具约束 力"，并私下批评OpenAI缺乏商业纪律。黄仁勋否认自己对OpenAI不满，并在上周六对记者表示"我们 会投入大量资金"，但他同时选择为承诺留出余地。 Parmy Olson认为，这 ...

微软于周二向员工宣布，公司将提拔四名销售高管。数月前，这家软件巨头刚任命销售负责人贾德森 阿尔索夫（Judson Althoff ）担任其商业业务首席执行官。企业员工正运用生成式 人工智能模型开发各 类新应用，投资者一直关注微软及其他老牌软件企业借此能实现多大的业务增长。今年以来，微软股价 已下跌 15%，在七大科技巨头股中表现垫底。上周，微软公布的 Azure 云业务增长数据未达部分市场 预期。公司高管表示，在仍满足 Azure 客户需求的前提下，计划将更多计算资源调配至研发团队及其人 工智能产品，包括 Microsoft 365 Copilot 生产力软件插件、GitHub Copilot 代码辅助工具等。 ...

来源：@究竟视频微博 【#英伟达微软跌超2.8%#，沃尔玛市值破1万亿美元，#金银价格强劲反弹#】*纳指几乎回吐年内涨幅 *避险需求回流，国债收益率回落，金银强劲反弹 大型科技股普遍承压。英伟达收跌2.84%，连续第三个交易日回落。微软下跌2.87%，特斯拉基本持 平、微涨0.04%，苹果回落0.20%。AlphabetA类股下跌1.16%，C类股跌1.22%；亚马逊下挫1.79%，博通 跌幅达3.26%，超威半导体下跌1.69%，Meta Platforms下滑2.08%。 沃尔玛上涨逾2%，受数字业务增长和新客户获取带动，公司市值首次突破1万亿美元。 大宗商品市场方面，金银价格在连续两个交易日大幅下跌后强劲反弹。现货黄金在纽约尾盘上涨 5.2%，报每盎司4906.82美元，自周一低点4403.24美元显著回升，但仍低于上周创下的5594.82美元历史 高位。4月交割的纽约黄金期货上涨6.1%，结算价报4935美元。现货白银上涨4.8%，报每盎司83.23美 元。 *AI竞争冲击估值，软件与数据分析板块承压 美国股市周二下跌，科技股抛售拖累标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数明显走低，投资者对人工智能相 关投入 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, primarily driven by a sell-off in technology stocks, leading to significant drops in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious about the returns on investments related to artificial intelligence, with software and data analytics sectors being particularly hard hit [1] - The S&P 500 technology sector fell over 2%, marking it as the worst-performing sector among the 11 major sectors. The S&P 500 software and services index has seen a continuous decline for five consecutive days, with a total drop of 12.8%, the largest five-day decline since March 2020 [7] Performance of Major Stocks - Major tech stocks faced pressure, with Nvidia down 2.84%, Microsoft down 2.87%, and Alphabet's Class A and C shares down 1.16% and 1.22%, respectively. Amazon fell 1.79%, and Broadcom dropped 3.26% [3][6] - Walmart's stock rose over 2%, driven by growth in digital business and new customer acquisition, marking its market capitalization surpassing $1 trillion for the first time [4] - PepsiCo's stock increased by 4% following strong earnings driven by improved organic sales [5] AI Investment Sentiment - Market tolerance for AI investments is declining, with investors increasingly demanding proof of profitability to justify substantial capital expenditures. This shift is evident in the contrasting stock performances of Microsoft and Meta, reflecting a growing distinction in market expectations regarding high investment for high growth [7] - Concerns are rising about intensified competition and disruptions in business models within the legal, data analytics, and professional services sectors due to AI developments, leading to significant stock declines for companies like RELX and Wolters Kluwer [7] Bond Market Activity - Amid the stock market pressure, U.S. Treasury bonds saw increased demand for safety, with the two-year Treasury yield falling by 0.2 basis points to 3.568% and the ten-year yield dropping by 1 basis point to 4.268% [9] - The yield spread between the two-year and ten-year Treasuries narrowed slightly to 69.5 basis points, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9] Commodity Market Performance - Gold and silver prices rebounded strongly after two days of significant declines, with spot gold rising 5.2% to $4,906.82 per ounce, while silver increased by 4.8% to $83.23 per ounce [10] - Oil prices also saw a slight rebound, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 1.72% to $63.21 per barrel, as the market weighs global supply prospects and easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran [10]

人工智能正深刻重塑采矿业发展格局，全面渗透从勘探、开采到加工、回收的全价值链，同时为供应链物流等辅助环节带来效率革新，成为推动行业经济效 益与可持续发展融合的核心力量。在全球能源转型背景下，2040 年清洁能源技术相关矿产需求预计增长四倍，人工智能为矿业应对资源短缺、减排压力等 挑战提供了关键解决方案，其在勘探阶段可降低 20%-30% 的时间与成本。 采矿业的 AI 应用实现了多维度突破：资源层面，能有效回收低品位矿产，延长矿山运营寿命；价值回收方面，针对复杂矿石系统优化加工技术，提升多种 贵重矿物的回收率；可追溯性上，通过数字护照、微量元素指纹识别等技术实现全流程监控；安全领域，尾矿库近实时监测技术降低环境风险，爆破测绘技 术提升作业安全与矿石利用率，冶金厂智能药剂混合系统保障产品质量稳定。 生成式 AI 时代下，网络安全挑战日益复杂，国家行为体与网络犯罪组织的攻击手段不断升级。微软推出 "安全未来计划"，倡导以威胁情报策略、行业政府 合作等方式强化防御，为 AI 应用筑牢安全基础。 企业 AI 转型成功需依托五大核心驱动因素：组织和文化上，需构建敏捷创新的环境，强化领导层认同与跨领域合作；商业战略要明确 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft has officially launched its second-generation AI chip, Maia 200, which aims to disrupt NVIDIA's dominance in the AI hardware market by reducing reliance on its CUDA software and offering a more cost-effective solution for AI computations [1][21][24]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - Maia 200 is built on TSMC's 3nm process and is accompanied by the software Triton, which significantly reduces the code required for developers, making it easier to transition from CUDA [2][6]. - The chip features 272MB of on-chip SRAM, enhancing performance and reducing costs for token generation by 30% compared to existing hardware [10][12]. - The performance of Maia 200 is reported to be comparable to or even surpassing CUDA by 5-37% in certain scenarios, with a 75-90% reduction in code volume for developers [6][22]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The launch of Maia 200 signifies a shift in the AI computing landscape, where cost efficiency will become a key competitive factor, moving away from the previous focus on model size [21][24]. - Other companies like Google and Meta are also developing alternatives to CUDA, indicating a broader industry trend towards diversifying AI computing solutions [7][23]. - The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI has become strained, as OpenAI has placed a significant order with Cerebras instead of Microsoft, highlighting the competitive dynamics in the AI space [15][16]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The success of Maia 200 is crucial for Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, as it directly impacts his potential earnings from a $96.5 million performance-based compensation agreement [17]. - Microsoft is projected to spend over $80 billion on AI infrastructure by 2025, making cost reduction through Maia 200 essential for maintaining profit margins [19]. - The shift towards Maia 200 represents a strategic move for Microsoft to reclaim control over its AI infrastructure and reduce dependency on NVIDIA, which could lead to significant valuation increases for the company [20][24].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ "在正常环境下，微软的这些业绩其实已经相当不错了。但在如此庞大的支出背景下，且市场预期已定 价至近乎完美，你必须每一个指标都达标，"GuideStone Funds公共投资组合经理Josh Chastant对此评价 道。该机构手中持有微软股份。 这一观点其实也能在另一只"七巨头"个股Meta上得到部分印证——是的，尽管Meta上周财报预测将实现 四年多来最快的季度营收增长，令投资者上周四推动其股价飙升了10%，创下7月以来的最佳单日表 现。但有鉴于该公司同样表示计划到2026年将资本支出增加多达87%，这一负面因素依然在上周五产生 了一定影响，Meta股价随后回落了近3%，创下去年10月30日以来最差单日表现。 这些市场反馈，揭示了科技巨头们目前依然正行走在愈发狭窄的钢丝上——AI领域已持续三年的涨势 建立在一种押注之上：即这些公司雄厚的财力和激进的投资，将使他们处于下一次变革性技术的前沿。 只要有增长支撑，投资者可以忍受巨额支出；否则，它们就得准备好迎接惩罚。 "我们已然进入这样一个时代：只有实现人工智能资本支出的变现，科技股估值才具 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of $600 for Microsoft, indicating a potential upside of over 30% based on a 28x P/E ratio [2][9] - For Venture Global (VG), the target price is set at $15, with the current stock price below $10, suggesting significant upside potential [2][14] Core Insights - Microsoft is focusing on its AI strategy, prioritizing Copilot and internal R&D over Azure revenue growth, which is expected to yield stronger long-term economic benefits [1][4] - VG's modular construction method for LNG facilities significantly enhances construction speed, with the CP2 project expected to show clear progress this summer [2][11] - The global LNG market is projected to see a substantial increase in supply over the next few years, making VG's low-cost operating model crucial for maintaining competitive advantage [2][13] Summary by Sections Microsoft - Microsoft's AI strategy encompasses infrastructure, platform, and application layers, leveraging self-developed chips and partnerships with companies like Anthropic to create diverse growth opportunities [1][5] - The Copilot tool is expected to have better unit economics than Azure, with a focus on enhancing user engagement and monetization potential [1][6] - The Fairwater project is anticipated to alleviate GPU supply constraints, allowing for better resource allocation between Copilot and Azure [1][8] Venture Global - VG operates LNG export facilities and is positioned within the energy ecosystem, with a focus on efficient construction methods to enhance project timelines [10][12] - The company has made significant progress in its modular LNG construction approach, with the CP2 project advancing faster than expected [11][12] - VG's financing strategy is clear, with substantial funding already secured for ongoing projects, and plans to raise additional capital to support future expansions [12][14]