【导读】中信、申万等头部券商最新发声：房地产市场现积极信号！ 申万宏源：房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去 申万宏源发布研报表示，过去4年房地产行业量价持续下行，导致目前部分房企预告业绩下降或亏损。 不过我们认为，房企最困难时期或将逐渐过去。 研报解释，一方面，我们认为我国房地产基本面底部正逐步临近，在行业深度调整4年多后，我国新开 工自2021年高点以来已下降75%，已显著超过美国、日本和德国降幅50%—70%，我国二手房房价自 2021年高点以来已下降40%，也已显著超过1970年至今42国平均跌幅34%；另一方面，申万宏源认为主 流房企存货减值压力逐步得到释放2019-2025H1主流房企累计资产及信用减值损失占比存货均值达8%， 其中部分房企减值占比更高。 中央强调着力稳定房地产，《求是》发文建议政策一次性给足，政策基调更趋积极。2025年12月，中央 经济工作会议指出："积极稳妥化解重点领域风险，着力稳定房地产市场"。此外，2026年1月2日，《求 是》明确房地产金融属性、强调居民资产负债表、重申房地产经济重要地位、并建议政策一次性给足， 对房地产行业政策表态更趋积极，政策进一步重视居民端和需求端发力。1月 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals and Market Trends - The precious metals sector is showing increasing speculative attributes, warranting caution [2] - The current market is experiencing a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks and from themes to quality [2] - The overall trend indicates a potential for profit margin recovery in cyclical sectors, driven by a shift in Chinese policy from expansion to quality improvement [2] Group 2: AI and Technology Opportunities - There is a focus on AI applications and energy storage as key growth areas, with expectations for recovery in lithium battery materials and storage sectors [3] - The AI industry remains a long-term focus, with significant policy support and market optimism surrounding its applications [5] - The technology theme, including AI applications and structural recovery opportunities, is highlighted as a key area for investment [7] Group 3: Spring Market Dynamics - The spring market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by ample liquidity and positive domestic fundamentals [5] - High elasticity growth themes may still perform well after a phase of profit-taking, with potential for further gains in February [4] - Sector rotation is anticipated to be a dominant theme leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on structural opportunities [9] Group 4: Commodity Recommendations - A recommendation has been made to adjust the order of investment focus to include crude oil, copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium, reflecting a shift towards industrial pricing [8] - The emphasis on physical assets is expected to strengthen, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and consumer goods benefiting from domestic recovery [8] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with expectations for continued support from domestic policies and liquidity [5][6] - The potential for structural recovery in manufacturing and resource sectors is noted, with clear paths for profit recovery [9] - The upcoming credit and inflation data in January may provide additional positive signals for the market [4]

21世纪经济报道记者 杨坪 据中信证券统计，2026年1月29日- 30日，8单总计估值321亿元商业不动产REITs发行挂网，预计涉及募集规模总计315亿元，涉及资本化率在 4.3%-7.2%区间内，涉及运营净收益（NOI）总计16.5亿元（2025年数据，部分项目为年化值）。 连日来，2025年业绩预告进入集中披露期。万科A、招商蛇口等多家地产公司也预告了2025年的整体经营表现。 中信证券认为，在商业不动产REITs推出之后，REITs市场发行审批效率明显提升，优质资产证券化速度明显加快。房地产企业资产负债表得 到夯实，债务负担有所减轻，广大投资者也得以配置优质低波权益资产，分享中国经济增长红利。 本报记者注意到，多家券商机构在点评房地产业绩预告时指出，尽管2025年房企利润表现仍承压，但市场已出现积极信号，预计2026年房地产 市场有望逐步止跌回稳。 总结来看，中信证券指出，我国居民部门的现金流量表保持良好，净流入健康向上，这也是未来企业经营性现金流净流入可能持续修复的底 气。政策力推住宅价格止跌，加上商业地产资产增值，相信房地产板块的主体信用风险已经开始退潮。当行业的主要融资性现金流入，从以信 用债 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究 作者：敖翀 拜俊飞 涂耀廷 商品市场轮动交易行情下，铜迅速接力贵金属，LME铜价单日上涨超10%并突破14500美元/吨。供给侧 的矿山减产、需求侧的终端稳健叠加库存囤积延续仍是看好2026年铜价行情的基础，但中信证券同时建 议充分重视在国内传统旺季与海外需求回暖作用下，2026Q1铜价及板块的弹性机遇。建议重视板块回 调窗口期的全面配置机遇。 ▍传统旺季与海外回暖的需求顺风值得把握。 展望2026Q1，中信证券认为不宜低估备货需求及传统旺季带来的价格向上弹性，应理性看待价格上涨 对于需求的抑制，同时应重视海外需求回暖的潜在利好。中信证券预计2026Q1 LME铜价中枢将达到 13000美元/吨以上，同时考虑到全年供需和宏观因素节奏，中信证券建议充分重视2026Q1铜价及板块的 弹性机遇。 ▍LME铜价突破14500美元/吨。 2026年1月29日，LME铜价突破14000美元/吨，盘中一度创下14527美元/吨的历史新高，日涨幅一度超 过10%；国内铜价突破11万元/吨，盘中一度创下11.42万元/吨的历史新高。随后，铜价有所冲高回落， 短期波动加大。实际上，LME铜价在2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's Listing Review Committee approved the refinancing of SIDA Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (603290.SH), confirming that it meets the issuance, listing, and information disclosure requirements [1] Group 1: Issuance Details - SIDA Semiconductor plans to issue convertible bonds to unspecified investors, with a face value of RMB 100.00 per bond, and a total fundraising amount not exceeding RMB 150 million [2][3] - The bonds will have a term of six years from the date of issuance, with the interest rate to be determined based on market conditions and company specifics [2][3] - The initial conversion price for the bonds will be set at or above the average trading price of the company's stock over the previous twenty trading days prior to the announcement [3] Group 2: Fund Allocation - The total investment for the projects funded by the issuance is RMB 203.43 million, with the following allocations: - RMB 60 million for the automotive-grade SiC MOSFET module manufacturing project - RMB 27 million for the IPM module manufacturing project - RMB 20 million for the industrialization of automotive-grade GaN modules - RMB 43 million for working capital [4] Group 3: Credit Rating - The bonds have been rated "AA+sti" by Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd., with a stable outlook for the company's credit rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - SIRIO PHARMA CO., LTD. (referred to as "Xianle Health") submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 29, 2026, aiming for a listing on the main board, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor. The company, which went public on the A-share market in September 2019, has a total market capitalization of approximately 7.199 billion RMB as of January 29, 2026. Xianle Health is a leading provider of nutritional health food solutions, holding the third-largest market share globally and the largest in China in this sector based on 2024 revenue [1][1]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal years ending December 31, 2024, and the first nine months of 2025, the company's revenues were approximately 4.211 billion RMB and 3.291 billion RMB, respectively. The net profit for the same periods was 2.82 billion RMB and 0.56 billion RMB, showing a significant decline of 73.89% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025. The gross profit margins were 30.61% and 31.47% for these periods [7][9][11]. Market Position - Xianle Health is recognized as the third-largest player in the global nutritional health food solutions market and the largest in China, based on revenue projections for 2024. The company is also the second-largest provider of gummy and soft capsule nutritional health food solutions worldwide [1][1]. Product Offerings - The company has developed a comprehensive range of solutions catering to various customer needs across different demographics, including pregnant women, infants, children, adolescents, and the elderly. Its product categories address core health needs such as basic vitamins and minerals, gut health, metabolic health, and immune support, among others. Additionally, Xianle Health has established a presence in the pet nutrition sector [3][3]. Global Operations - Xianle Health has a global business footprint that spans markets in China, the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. The company operates six production bases (with one under construction) and five global R&D centers, reaching customers in over 50 countries and regions. Notably, overseas market revenue accounted for 61.2% of total revenue during the first nine months of 2025 [5][9]. Revenue Sources - The primary revenue for Xianle Health comes from the sales of nutritional health food products, with soft capsules and gummies being the largest contributors. In 2024, these two product types accounted for a significant portion of the company's revenue, while other forms such as drinks, tablets, powders, and hard capsules contributed less [9][9].

来源：读创财经综合 中信证券研报认为，判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口；大周期维度下的风格切 换正在发生，从小盘切大盘，从题材切质量；沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意 愿，无论是否能成功践行理念，对全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到 周期热，涨价线索的全面演绎可能贯穿一季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国 的政策从扩大规模逐步向提质增效的转变。配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球 定价权的重估，化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵 金属板块要开始保持警惕；消费和地产链的躁动修复理应发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|李翀 崔嵘 韦昕澄 根据新华社纽约1月30日报道，美国总统特朗普30日通过社交媒体宣布，提名美国联邦储备委员会前理 事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。这项提名还需要获得国会参议院批准，对此我们点评如下。 ▍沃什被提名的原因在于满足特朗普"既要又要还要"的诉求。 沃什职业生涯始于摩根士丹利，2006-2011年担任美联储理事，是当时最年轻的美联储理事，危机期间 是华尔街和美联储的重要桥梁，但2011年因反对QE2而辞职。除哈赛特之外，相比其他几位候选人，沃 什家族和特朗普关系更密切，满足忠诚度要求。此外，沃什既有独立性特征，又在本轮竞选中摘掉"鹰 派标签"，边际转鸽支持降息，同时长期批评美联储，支持改革，符合特朗普对美联储主席的各方面诉 求。 ▍沃什重返美联储或代表货币主义的回归，以及美联储改革的推进。 "通胀是一种选择"是沃什的经典名言，这与弗里德曼"通货膨胀永远且必然是货币现象"异曲同工。沃什 的鹰派政策核心在于通过货币供应量控制和取消前瞻指引来压制通胀预期，而非机械性维持高利率压制 通胀，并非利率层面的鹰派。他认 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 高玉森 陈泽平 张铭楷 陈峰 刘春彤 我们判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口；大周期维度下的风格切换正在发生，从 小盘切大盘，从题材切质量；沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意愿，无论是否能 成功践行理念，对全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线 索的全面演绎可能贯穿一季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国的政策从扩大规 模逐步向提质增效的转变。配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球定价权的重估， 化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵金属板块要开始 保持警惕；消费和地产链的躁动修复理应发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 ETF集中赎回潮基本结束 权重股迎来修复窗口 沪深300ETF本周累计净赎回2443亿元，与前一周净赎回总额2374亿元相当，不过本周五净赎回额仅为 73亿元，为1月15日以来单日净赎回额首次回落至300亿元以下。1月截至29日，全市场宽基类ETF净赎 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，1月被动资金大幅流出，测算上周（2026年1月26日至30日， 下同）及1月，11个银行挂钩相关ETF分别净流出3773亿元/9102亿元，影响银行股资金净流出约485亿 元/1051亿元（测算值），导致年初至今板块下跌6.1%。当前板块分红率4.4%，抬升至高性价比区间， 上周为单周最大资金流出周、但银行指数回升1%，隐含长线机构投资者配置意愿大幅提升。展望2026 年，预计1季度信贷开门红和银行经营格局良好，息差和资产质量预期稳定，营收和利润增速恢复，夯 实核心权益资产价值。 中信证券主要观点如下： 板块资金流出高峰已过，配置价值开始显现 1）1月被动资金集中流出，阶段性压力出清，后续冲击空间有限。该行测算，上周及1月，沪深300、上 证50、中证银行等在内的11个银行相关指数挂钩ETF分别净流出3773亿元/9102亿元，对应影响银行股 资金净流出约485亿元/1051亿元（测算值与实际或有所偏离）。其中，1月沪深300与上证50ETF份额分 别回落48%和53%，被动基金减配压力已集中释放，后续冲击空间相对有限。 2）估值与收益优势重新显现，行情企稳增强配置吸引 ...