股票代码：000166 股票简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-41 债券代码：148318 债券简称：23 申宏 02 申万宏源集团股份有限公司 （第一期）（品种二）2025年付息公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏 特别提示： （1）申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开 发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）（债券简称：23 申宏 02，债券 代码：148318）将于 2025 年 6 月 16 日支付自 2024 年 6 月 14 日至 （2）本次付息的债权登记日为 2025 年 6 月 13 日，凡在 2025 年 息； 由申万宏源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于 2023 年 6 月 14 日发行的申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资 者公开发行公司债券（第一期） （品种二） （以下简称"本期债券"） 一、本期债券基本情况 者公开发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）。 假日或休息日，则顺延至其后的第 1 个交易日，顺延期间付息款项不 另计利息）。 顺延至其后的第 1 个交易日，顺延期间兑付款项不另计利 ...

股票代码：000166 股票简称：申万宏源 公告编号：临 2025-41 债券代码：148318 债券简称：23 申宏 02 2023年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券 （第一期）（品种二）2025年付息公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏 特别提示： （1）申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开 发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）（债券简称：23 申宏 02，债券 代码：148318）将于 2025 年 6 月 16 日支付自 2024 年 6 月 14 日至 2025 年 6 月 13 日期间的利息 3.49 元（含税）/张。 （2）本次付息的债权登记日为 2025 年 6 月 13 日，凡在 2025 年 6 月 13 日（含）前买入并持有本期债券的投资者享有本次派发的利 息；2025年6月13日卖出本期债券的投资者不享有本次派发的利息。 由申万宏源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于 2023 年 6 月 14 日发行的申万宏源集团股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资 者公开发行公司债券（第一期）（品种二）（以下简称" ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，五一假期出行超预期以及节后量价进一步稳定，体现航司销 售模式变化已有成效。油价进一步下行释放航司成本压力，在航空供应链恢复受限、宽体机利用率提升 等变化下，航空供给逻辑已有多方面验证，内需复苏下航空需求侧有望触底提升，加速顺周期行情启 动。航空市场正稳步迈入旺季阶段，从今年市场的供需结构来看，市场供给增长受限，旅客量自然增长 的核心逻辑不变，若后续国内航司票价回暖，将持续验证支撑航司收益提升逻辑。 该行继续推荐关注航空板块，供给放缓确定性强，需求端具备弹性，同时在外部油价变化配合下航司能 够释放较大业绩提升空间。关注全球飞机租赁公司、航空发动机及维修厂商、关注业绩持续修复的机场 板块。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 需求景气度回升，量价协同放大收益 上半年整体呈现量升价减趋势，五月价格同比出现拐点。24年Q2后市场量价基数均有所降低，航司销 售模式有所转变，量价表现逐步好转且稳定。跨境运力恢复下票价持续常态化，同时宽体机利用率明显 提升。今年以来外交部持续试行多项外国旅客单向免签政策，入境游表现强劲。 从量变到质变，需求增长将逐步兑现至价格端。今年以来客座率仍处高位且已达到历 ...

Core Insights - The conference focused on the intersection of technology and finance, highlighting the transformative impact of AI on traditional financial operations and the investment landscape [1][2] - Experts from various sectors discussed topics such as technology finance, asset allocation, sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, new productive forces, C-REITs, and the application of AI models [1][4][5] Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference was organized by Shenwan Hongyuan's Financial Innovation Headquarters and featured four keynote speeches and two roundtable discussions [1] - The event attracted a diverse audience, including experts from academia, technology, government funds, and mainstream financial institutions, providing valuable investment insights [1][7] Group 2: Keynote Presentations - The first keynote by Gao Hao from Tsinghua University discussed the opportunities presented by Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and family businesses [4] - Wang Xi from Shanghai Guotou Xian Dao Fund emphasized the importance of early-stage investments in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and AI to support technological innovation [5] - Li Yaoguang from CICC presented on the development and opportunities within the C-REITs market, focusing on asset management strategies [5] - Zhang Zhijun from JD Technology shared insights on the application of AI models in various financial business scenarios, enhancing digital transformation [5] Group 3: Roundtable Discussions - The roundtable discussions featured prominent guests from public funds, bank wealth management, trusts, insurance, private equity, and foreign capital, sharing their perspectives on asset allocation strategies and structured product investment opportunities [7] - The discussions highlighted a consensus among participants regarding current investment topics, indicating a strong alignment of views within the investment community [7] Group 4: Future Directions - Shenwan Hongyuan's Financial Innovation Headquarters aims to continue serving national strategies and the real economy, focusing on digital transformation and enhancing comprehensive financial services [7] - The organization seeks to leverage its experience and professionalism to provide high-quality products and efficient services, contributing to the goal of a financially strong nation and technological self-reliance [7]

Group 1 - The current global technology revolution is significantly impacting production and lifestyle, with China being a key participant in this wave, particularly in AI and quantum computing [1] - The rise of Chinese technology has led to the emergence of innovative companies in the A-share market, which are crucial for stabilizing and strengthening the capital market [1] Group 2 - External uncertainties continue to challenge the capital market, but they are not the decisive factor for China's transformation; past external shocks have accelerated breakthroughs in domestic industries [2] - Key themes for 2025 include "anti-involution" and "rebalancing," with high-value industries showing resilience against high tariffs [2] - By the second half of 2025, the manufacturing sector may face downward pressure, while the service sector is expected to improve, potentially offsetting manufacturing challenges [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is anticipated to enter a bull market phase between 2026 and 2027, with signs of improved supply-demand dynamics and increased market profitability [3] - The potential for a bull market is supported by rising household asset allocation towards equities, driven by a peak in deposit maturities in 2025 [3] - A-share companies are expected to experience a long-term increase in profitability due to breakthroughs in high-value sectors and a significant supply clearing cycle [3] Group 4 - The technology sector is currently undergoing a mid-term adjustment, primarily due to slow AI application development and uncertainties in computing power investments [4] - Key areas of potential growth include AI, embodied intelligence, and defense industries, with a focus on high-cost performance opportunities [4] - Caution is advised regarding the expansion of new consumer trends, as significant short-term profit effects often signal market corrections [4] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to lead in a potential bull market, becoming a critical component of China's financial external circulation [5] - Hong Kong's internet sector is positioned as a leader in the domestic AI industry trend, while high-dividend state-owned enterprises are attracting attention from insurance funds [5] - The relative elasticity of the Hong Kong market compared to the A-share market remains a consistent assessment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the performance pressure in Q2 is limited, with expectations for improved new business performance and further reductions in the cost of new liabilities due to anticipated interest rate cuts in Q3 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions and Fund Flows - A-share listed insurance companies are significantly underrepresented compared to the CSI 300 index, with public fund regulations expected to drive incremental capital inflows [1] - As of the end of Q1, the allocation of equity funds in the non-bank sector is underweight by 9.68% compared to the CSI 300 index, second only to banks [1] Group 2: New Liability Costs and Product Transformation - The cost of new liabilities has decreased significantly, with some insurance companies optimizing their existing liability costs [2] - The NBV (New Business Value) and VIF (Value of In-Force) yield performances for major insurers show a year-on-year decline, indicating effective risk management of interest spread losses [2] - The transformation of participating insurance products has exceeded expectations, with major insurers elevating this strategy to a strategic level [3] Group 3: Insurance Capital Market Participation - The implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market participation highlights the role of insurance capital as a key player, with sustainable growth in insurance fund utilization expected [4] - The upper limit for equity allocation for insurance capital has been unexpectedly relaxed, allowing for a total equity allocation scale of 9.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 505.5 billion yuan from previous regulations [4] - The reduction of investment risk factors for stock investments further opens up the equity allocation limits for insurance capital [4]

Group 1 - The core theme of the conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan is "The Heroic Nature Revealed in Turbulent Times," focusing on various market concerns including asset allocation, AI, financial innovation, and new consumption trends [1] - The conference aims to create an open dialogue platform for regulatory bodies and market institutions, and to generate actionable suggestions to enhance the vitality of the capital market [1] - Current global political and economic restructuring is identified as a critical moment, alongside the transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th [1] Group 2 - The trend of capital accumulation in the US market since 2020 is showing signs of reversal, with significant capital outflows towards markets like Germany and Hong Kong [3][4] - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, with signs of stabilization in the real estate market and a reduction in debt risks [4] - Foreign investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China, suggesting an "overweight" position on Chinese equities [5] Group 3 - External shocks are viewed as accelerators for China's economic transformation, with a notable decrease in the export share to the US [7] - The service sector and consumer spending are expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, potentially offsetting pressures from the manufacturing sector [7] - The A-share market is seen as having the potential for a bull market, driven by declining risk-free rates and improvements in financing functions [8] Group 4 - The anticipated bull market is likely to be characterized as a "slow bull" unique to China, with Hong Kong stocks expected to lead the market [8][9] - The market is projected to improve in 2026, with the bull market expected to unfold between 2026 and 2027, while the fourth quarter of 2025 may reflect improvements in the mid-term fundamentals [9] - Key investment themes include AI, defense, and new consumption sectors, with a focus on software, hardware technologies, and emerging consumer trends [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the economic transformation in China has entered a new phase, characterized by a decline in the contribution of traditional sectors like real estate, and a shift towards new consumption patterns and service-oriented growth [3][4] - The conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan brought together executives from nearly 500 listed companies and over 2,200 investors, indicating strong interest and engagement in the capital markets [1] - The chief economist of Shenwan Hongyuan, Zhao Wei, highlighted that the traditional policy framework is becoming less effective, necessitating a comprehensive policy innovation to support the new economic phase [3] Group 2 - Zhao Wei noted that new consumption forms, such as self-care and experiential consumption, have emerged significantly over the past two years, reflecting changing consumer preferences [3] - The economic indicators suggest a "bottoming out" of short-term consumer confidence, with a long-term shift towards service-oriented consumption approaching [3] - The focus of economic policy is expected to shift from "investment-driven" to "people-oriented" by the end of 2024, with an emphasis on supporting the service sector as a key area for economic recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic indicators are anticipated to undergo a "strong-weak transition" in the second half of 2025, with manufacturing facing potential downward pressure while service sector investments and consumption show signs of improvement [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to play a significant role in the structural reforms of the supply side, aiming for broader and more coordinated economic adjustments [4] - Increased support for the service sector is seen as a crucial strategy to mitigate pressures from the manufacturing sector and to unleash demand potential [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the A-share market has the potential to develop into a bull market, driven by factors such as increasing household asset allocation towards equities and improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns [3][4] - The upcoming peak in 2025 for household deposit reallocations is expected to mark the beginning of a significant shift in asset allocation towards equities, indicating a potential increase in market participation [3] - The current market is likely to remain in a volatile range during Q2-Q3 of 2025, with a cautious approach recommended until conditions are more favorable for a larger market rally [4] Group 2 - The potential bull market is anticipated to evolve into a "slow bull" unique to China, characterized by prolonged but gradual improvements in the fundamental economic landscape [4] - The market is expected to see a better performance in 2026 compared to 2025, with the primary bull market phase projected for 2026-2027, as supply-demand dynamics improve [4] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to show signs of mid-term fundamental improvement and an initial increase in household equity allocation, potentially elevating the market's central tendency [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 2025 capital market summer strategy conference hosted by Shenwan Hongyuan gathered significant participation from executives of nearly 500 listed companies and over 2,200 investors, indicating strong interest in market strategies and opportunities [1] Group 2 - Huang Weiping, the chief analyst of bonds at Shenwan Hongyuan, highlighted that the bond market in 2025 will differ from the single-sided bull market of 2024, entering a phase characterized by "low interest rates + interest rate spreads + high volatility," suggesting a need to abandon the single-sided bull market mindset [3] - Huang pointed out two key areas to focus on regarding liquidity in the second half of the year: the timing of the central bank's bond purchases and the alignment of purchase rhythm with supply rhythm, noting that the net supply of government bonds typically peaks in the second half of the year [3] - The potential recovery of government bond purchases is anticipated to coincide with the second wave of net supply peaks within the year, which may lead to substantial buying strength [3] - Huang identified June to August as a favorable window for long positions, as the demand for real economy financing declines and the central bank may resume government bond purchases [3] - The market outlook for the year suggests a shift away from a single-sided bull market perspective, with a focus on high volatility and oscillating market conditions [3] - Opportunities in the current bond market include monitoring the compression of yield spreads between different bond types, such as local government bonds versus national government bonds [3] - In the futures market, strategies include capturing wave opportunities in local government bonds and TL "positive spreads," with a focus on short-duration credit bonds and long-duration local government bonds after July [3]