报告导读： 煤炭价格见底回升，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 煤炭价格加速回暖，反内卷政策再升温 ；报告日期：2025.07.23 报告作者： 黄涛（分析师）登记编号：S0880515090001 王楠瑀（研究助理）登记编号： S0880123060041 重要提醒 计未来3个月是关键的基本面验证时点。 投资建议：从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心标的。 煤价继续回升，"反内卷"持续发酵。 2025年7月22日，国家能源局综合司发布促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通 知。通知显示，今年以来，全国煤炭供需形势总体宽松，价格持续下行，部分煤矿企业"以量补价"，超公 告产能组织生产严重扰乱煤炭市场秩序。为规范煤矿企业生产行为，促进煤炭供应平稳有序，国家能源局 拟于近期在重点产煤省(区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作。1）需求端：5月开始，伴随天气的快速转 热，全社会用电量增速也提升至4.4%，带动火电发电量已经由负转正至1.2%，6月火电发电量同比 +1.1%。我们认为伴随全国正式进入盛夏，从当前气象数据显示今年夏天气温较历史平均更高，旺季需求 日 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector in A-shares is experiencing a significant rally, with the brokerage index rising over 25% since the low on April 8, and is expected to benefit from both fundamental and capital market support, with some brokerages offering dividend yields above 2% [1][11]. Performance Forecast - At least 28 listed brokerages have released performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with most reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%, and some large brokerages, such as Shenwan Hongyuan and Guotai Junan, expecting over 100% growth [2][5]. - Specific forecasts include Guotai Junan projecting a net profit of 15.28 billion to 15.96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 205% to 218% [5][10]. Market Conditions - The surge in brokerage performance is attributed to the recovery of the capital market, with increased market activity leading to significant growth in proprietary trading and brokerage fee income [6][11]. - The stamp duty revenue for the first half of the year reached 195.3 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase, with securities transaction stamp duty growing by 54.1% to 78.5 billion yuan [7]. Support Factors - **Fundamental Support**: The active trading environment is expected to continue benefiting brokerages, with most forecasting continued growth in the second half of the year [11]. - **Capital Support**: The allocation of equity funds to non-bank financials has increased slightly, but remains low compared to the overall market [12]. - **Policy Support**: Recent regulatory changes encourage brokerages to focus on improving return on equity (ROE), enhancing their performance metrics [13]. - **Valuation**: Most brokerages have a price-to-book ratio just above 1, with only about 10 having a ratio exceeding 2, indicating potential for further appreciation [14]. Summary of Performance Increases - A detailed table of expected net profit increases for various brokerages shows significant growth, with some firms like Huaxi Securities projecting a staggering increase of over 1000% [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of stablecoin regulation and a reduction in insurance product interest rates as significant developments impacting the non-bank financial sector [1]. - The capital market is experiencing structural changes driven by policy support and internal demand, with expectations for continued improvement in brokerage valuations and performance due to mid-year earnings catalysts and long-term capital inflows [4][11]. - The upcoming implementation of the stablecoin licensing regime in Hong Kong is expected to create new growth opportunities for brokerages, particularly in the virtual asset ecosystem [13]. Summary by Sections Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on stabilizing the market and enhancing regulatory effectiveness, with key tasks including risk prevention and promoting market vitality [11]. - The merger of Guotai Junan Asset Management and Haitong Asset Management is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability, with projected net profits for the first half of 2025 expected to increase by 205%-218% year-on-year [12]. - The securities sector indices outperformed major indices, with the non-bank financial index up by 3.37% and the securities index up by 5.35% [16]. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - The maximum preset interest rates for various insurance products have been reduced, with ordinary life insurance rates dropping from 2.5% to 2.0%, reflecting regulatory adjustments to align with market conditions [31]. - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is promoting the expansion of entrusted basic pension fund investments, which is expected to inject significant long-term capital into the market [32]. - The report notes a surge in insurance capital's equity market participation, with 21 instances of capital increases recorded this year, indicating a strong interest in equity investments by insurance institutions [33]. Market Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's net injection of liquidity amounted to 55.487 billion yuan during the week, with significant reverse repo operations contributing to market liquidity [43]. - The average daily trading volume in A-shares increased by 14.20% compared to the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank sector, particularly in insurance and securities, suggesting a "Recommended" rating for key companies in these sectors [3][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a reduction in the preset interest rates for life insurance products, with ordinary life insurance at 2.0%, participating insurance at 1.75%, and universal insurance at 1.0%. This adjustment is expected to optimize the liability structure of insurance companies and promote a shift towards non-guaranteed income products [1][3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on stabilizing the capital market and enhancing market vitality through reforms, which is anticipated to boost investor confidence and market performance [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts, which are expected to enhance market sentiment and support the valuation recovery of quality listed companies [3][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.67% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.33% during the week [7]. - The non-bank financial sector saw a mixed performance, with the securities index rising by 4.82% [7][8]. Securities Sector - The report notes that the total trading volume in the A-share market reached 10.66 trillion yuan, with a daily average trading volume of 1.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.20% increase week-on-week [16]. - The IPO underwriting scale for the year reached 560.64 billion yuan, while refinancing underwriting amounted to 8050.88 billion yuan [16][18]. Insurance Sector - The report indicates that the life insurance premium growth rate for major companies like China Life and Ping An Life has shown positive trends, with significant increases in premium income [24][25]. - The adjustment of preset interest rates is expected to lower the liability costs for insurance companies, enhancing their financial stability [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, Sunshine Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, as well as leading securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [41][42]. - It also highlights potential benefits for non-bank institutions from the implementation of stablecoin regulations and cross-border payment innovations [3][41].

Core Viewpoint - Inner Mongolia Mengdian Huaneng Thermal Power Co., Ltd. plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire 70% equity of Northern United Power Co., Ltd. and 75.51% equity of Northern Duolun New Energy Co., Ltd. from its controlling shareholder, while raising matching funds from no more than 35 specific investors [1][2] Summary by Sections Transaction Overview - The transaction involves the acquisition of stakes in two companies and the issuance of shares to raise funds [1] - The self-inspection period for insider trading is defined as six months prior to the suspension announcement until the disclosure of the restructuring report [2] Insider Information and Trading - The scope of the insider information includes directors, supervisors, senior management, controlling shareholders, and other related parties [2] - Specific individuals involved in trading during the self-inspection period have been identified, with details of their transactions provided [3][4] Trading Activities - Notable trading activities include: - A total of 600 shares sold by a legal advisor on September 24, 2024 - 2,800 shares bought and sold by a board member's spouse on February 21 and April 16, 2025, respectively - 4,800 shares bought by a key accountant on February 25, 2025 [4][5] - All involved parties have declared that their trading activities were based on public market information and personal judgment, denying any knowledge of insider information [5][6][7] Company Commitments - Northern United Power Co., Ltd. has committed to not using insider information for trading and has disclosed its stock trading activities during the self-inspection period [10][11] - The independent financial advisor, Guotai Junan Securities, confirmed that the trading activities did not involve insider information and complied with relevant regulations [14][17] Conclusion - The independent financial advisor concluded that the trading activities during the self-inspection period do not constitute insider trading and do not pose substantial obstacles to the transaction [18]

Core Viewpoint - The merger of Guotai Junan Asset Management and Haitong Asset Management marks a significant consolidation in China's securities industry, being the first case of a broker's asset management subsidiaries merging [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Details - On July 25, Guotai Haitong announced the board's approval for Guotai Junan Asset Management to absorb Haitong Asset Management, with the new name being "Shanghai Guotai Haitong Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd." [1] - The merger is set to take effect on August 22, involving the transition of legal entities, clients, and business operations [4]. Group 2: Company Background - Guotai Junan Asset Management was established in 2010 and has developed a dual business model of "public and private" asset management since obtaining a public offering license in 2021. As of the end of 2024, its asset management scale reached 588.43 billion yuan, with non-monetary public offerings accounting for 48.4 billion yuan [2]. - Haitong Asset Management was founded in 2012, and by the end of 2024, its asset management scale was 106.98 billion yuan [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant growth in the bond market, particularly in the technology innovation bond sector, with a total underwriting amount of 381.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.48% [2][4] - A total of 68 securities firms participated as lead underwriters for 380 technology innovation bonds, continuing the explosive growth trend that began in 2020 [2][4] - The top three firms, CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction Investment, and Guotai Junan, captured over 47% of the market share in technology innovation bond underwriting [2][4] Group 2 - The performance of small and medium-sized securities firms has been notable, particularly in niche markets such as support bonds for small and micro enterprises and "Belt and Road" bonds, where they have made significant inroads [2][8] - In the "Belt and Road" bond sector, three small securities firms ranked among the top five underwriters, a significant increase from the previous year [2][8] - The underwriting amount for private enterprise bonds reached 239.39 billion yuan, showing a substantial increase from the previous year's 183.70 billion yuan [7] Group 3 - The regulatory environment has played a crucial role in the growth of the technology innovation bond market, with policies encouraging securities firms to enhance their capabilities in this area [6] - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities has significantly impacted the rankings, with their combined underwriting amount surpassing that of other major firms [5] - The rural revitalization bond market saw a doubling in scale, driven primarily by the strong performance of leading securities firms [9]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of subsidiaries under Guotai Haitong Securities has officially begun, marking a significant step towards comprehensive consolidation within the company [1][6]. Summary by Sections Integration Announcement - On July 25, Guotai Haitong announced the board's approval for Guotai Junan Asset Management to absorb Haitong Asset Management, with the company name changing to "Shanghai Guotai Haitong Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd." [1] Key Steps in Integration - The absorption and merger of the asset management companies will involve critical steps such as product migration and legal entity consolidation, which will be implemented based on the progress of product migration [2]. Industry Context - The integration of Guotai Haitong's subsidiaries has garnered significant attention this year, with the company proceeding with the integration of various subsidiaries in an orderly manner as per regulatory requirements [3][7]. First of Its Kind - This merger represents the first instance of a securities asset management subsidiary merger in the domestic securities industry, highlighting its pioneering nature [4]. Company Background - Both asset management companies have substantial influence in the industry, with Guotai Junan Asset Management established in 2010 and Haitong Asset Management founded in 2012. As of the end of 2024, Guotai Junan Asset Management's assets under management (AUM) reached 588.43 billion yuan, while Haitong Asset Management's AUM was 106.98 billion yuan [5]. Future Goals - The merger signifies a critical step towards achieving the goal of full integration within Guotai Haitong Securities, aiming to unify business directions and develop innovative strategies [6]. Product Migration Plans - There are already arrangements in place for the migration and renaming of products under both asset management companies, with future changes to public fund product names anticipated [9]. Strategic Focus Post-Merger - After the merger, the companies plan to unify their business strategies, optimize service systems, and enhance their asset management platform to better meet the growing wealth management needs of clients [10][11].

二季度债券型基金规模显著回升，主动纯债与指数基金贡献明显。 2025 年二季度以来，受益于国内货币 条件的边际宽松，叠加外部关税扰动下风险偏好收敛所形成的共振，债券型基金规模显著回升，在管规模 相较一季度增长 0.85 万亿至 10.9 万亿元，占全部公募基金比重约 32% 。得益于 5 月双降政策及 6 月 1.4 万亿买断式逆回购的落地，机构对于债券的配置意愿转向积极，与此同时伴随 8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 被纳入质押库，以及债市科技板升温下有关科创债 ETF 的预期不断提升，信用债 ETF 规模逐步壮 大。因而在二季度，主动纯债与指数债基规模增长贡献明显，两者分别较一季度增长超 4400/2900 亿 元。而固收 + 内部则出现了一定的分化，相对低波的一级债基环比增长 831 亿元，二级债基与可转债基 金则分别增长了 390/-32 亿元。 报告导读： ETF 规模占比增加，中长债基久期与杠杆均显著提升。 吴宇擎（研究助理），登记编号：S0880516050001 重要提醒 久期迭创新高，杠杆协同发力。 二季度尤其是 6 月以来，债券基金久期显著拉升。截至 Q2 末，短债与 中长债基金（剔除摊余成本 ...