Core Insights - Haidilao International Holding Ltd. reported a revenue of 42.755 billion yuan for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a net profit of 4.7 billion yuan, up 4.6% from the previous year [2] - The company served 415 million customers in 2024, with an average daily customer flow exceeding 1.1 million, marking a 4.5% increase from the previous year [4] - Haidilao is implementing the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new restaurant brands and expand its business boundaries, with 11 new brands and 74 stores launched by the end of 2024 [6][7] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 42.755 billion yuan, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, while net profit reached 4.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.6% growth [2] - Core operating profit rose to 6.23 billion yuan, marking an 18.7% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The company reported a 20.4% increase in takeaway revenue, amounting to 1.254 billion yuan [4] Customer Engagement and Store Management - The average table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, indicating efficient customer service [4] - By the end of 2024, Haidilao had over 180 million members, with active members exceeding 52 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on differentiated management by empowering frontline restaurants to cater to diverse customer needs [4] Market Trends and Industry Context - The overall restaurant market in China saw a revenue growth of 5.3% in 2024, with total revenue reaching 55.718 billion yuan [3] - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumption have positively impacted the restaurant sector, contributing to its recovery and growth [2] - Haidilao is adapting its menu to local tastes, launching over 20 national new products and more than 200 regional specialties in 2024 [4] Business Expansion and Innovation - The "Pomegranate Plan" aims to foster the development of new restaurant brands, with a focus on innovation in dining services [6] - The company has initiated a franchise model, with 13 franchise stores established by the end of 2024, primarily in lower-tier cities [8] - Haidilao is exploring various dining formats, including themed restaurants and corporate partnerships, to enhance customer experience [4][8]

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company's total revenue was RMB 42,754.7 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1%[6] - The core operating profit for 2024 was RMB 6,229.9 million, up 18.7% compared to the previous year[6] - The net profit for the year increased by 4.6% to RMB 4,700.3 million, with earnings per share rising to RMB 0.87 from RMB 0.83 in 2023[3] - The company's total revenue increased by 3.1% from RMB 41,453.3 million in 2023 to RMB 42,754.7 million in 2024[10] - Revenue from restaurant operations accounted for 94.5% of total revenue in 2024, amounting to RMB 40,397.6 million, up 2.9% from RMB 39,266.6 million in 2023[11] - The takeout business revenue grew by 20.4% from RMB 1,041.5 million in 2023 to RMB 1,253.9 million in 2024, driven by the introduction of a premium fast food service[12] - System sales growth for Haidilao restaurants in 2024 was 3.0% year-on-year[21] - The company reported a financial cost of RMB 274,678 thousand in 2024, down from RMB 351,430 thousand in 2023, a reduction of 21.85%[56] - The income tax expense for the year was RMB 2,013,413, an increase of 54.60% from RMB 1,301,010 in 2023[72] - The company declared a total dividend of RMB 5,995,766,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024, significantly higher than RMB 553,798,000 in 2023[77] Customer Engagement and Operations - The average table turnover rate for self-operated restaurants was 4.1 times per day, an increase from 3.8 times in 2023[6] - The company served 415.0 million customers in 2024, a 4.5% increase year-on-year[6] - The number of active members exceeded 52 million in 2024, representing an 8.8% increase year-over-year[11] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, up from 3.8 times in 2023[14] - The digital operations strategy led to an 88% follow-up rate on customer feedback, enhancing customer retention[11] Expansion and Brand Development - The company opened 62 new restaurants in 2024, including 59 self-operated and 3 franchised, while closing or relocating 70 restaurants[7] - The "Pomegranate Plan" was officially launched to incubate and develop new restaurant brands, resulting in 74 stores across 11 new brands by the end of 2024[7] - The company launched 11 sub-brands under the "Pomegranate Plan" by the end of 2024, covering various dining scenarios[11] - The franchise business was officially launched in 2024, with 13 franchise restaurants approved and established by year-end[11] Cost Management - Cost of raw materials and consumables decreased by 4.3% to RMB 16,211.1 million in 2024, accounting for 37.9% of total revenue, down from 40.9% in 2023[22] - Employee costs increased by 8.2% to RMB 14,113.3 million in 2024, representing 33.0% of total revenue, up from 31.5% in 2023[23] - Rental and related expenses rose by 17.6% to RMB 425.5 million in 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of 1.0% of total revenue[24] - Other expenses increased by 15.7% to RMB 1,864.1 million in 2024, accounting for 4.4% of total revenue, up from 3.9% in 2023[28] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to RMB 13,024,158 thousand in 2024 from RMB 14,907,039 thousand in 2023, a decline of 12.63%[59] - Current liabilities decreased slightly to RMB 7,103,821 thousand in 2024 from RMB 7,241,812 thousand in 2023, a reduction of 1.91%[59] - Non-current assets decreased to RMB 9,757,099 thousand in 2024 from RMB 9,769,959 thousand in 2023, a decrease of 0.13%[58] - Trade receivables decreased from RMB 412.0 million to RMB 346.3 million, maintaining a turnover period of 3.2 days[41] - Trade payables decreased from RMB 1,859.4 million to RMB 1,796.4 million, with a turnover period increasing from 34.3 days to 41.2 days[42] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance customer satisfaction and employee engagement through differentiated management and new restaurant formats[8] - The company will continue to focus on product innovation and market adaptation to meet diverse consumer needs in 2025[8] - Future initiatives include enhancing dining experiences, exploring diversified business strategies, and strategically seeking quality asset acquisitions[55] - The company aims to maintain optimal liquidity through regular monitoring of cash flow and balances to support ongoing business expansion[37] Governance and Compliance - The company has adopted and complied with the corporate governance code throughout the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[92] - The audit committee reviewed the annual performance and financial reporting matters, confirming compliance with relevant accounting standards[96] Shareholder Information - The company plans to propose a final cash dividend of HKD 0.507 per share, totaling approximately RMB 2,534.2 million[7] - The proposed final dividend is HKD 0.507 per share, subject to shareholder approval at the annual general meeting on May 19, 2025[103] - The company plans to suspend share transfer registration from May 14 to May 19, 2025, to determine eligible shareholders for voting at the annual general meeting[104] - The company will also suspend share transfer registration from May 23 to May 28, 2025, to determine shareholders entitled to receive the final dividend[105]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing dynamics of the hot pot industry in China, highlighting the increasing consumer dissatisfaction with high-priced hot pot brands and the rise of alternative dining options that offer better value and experience [2][4][76]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Market Trends - In 2024, the average monthly salary for residents is 3,000+ yuan, making a 5,000 yuan salary above average, indicating that consumers are reevaluating their spending on dining experiences [4]. - There is a noticeable shift among the new middle class, who are abandoning high-priced hot pot options in favor of more affordable alternatives [7][8]. - The perception that high prices equate to high quality is fading, leading to a growing distrust among consumers towards expensive hot pot brands [24][30]. Group 2: Pricing and Cost Challenges - The restaurant industry has entered a cost-up cycle, with operating costs in the dining sector rising nearly 50% year-on-year by Q3 2024 [25]. - High-end hot pot restaurants are facing a closure rate of approximately 30%-35%, with average losses exceeding 2 million yuan per store [28]. - Brands like Ba Nu have faced backlash for their pricing strategies, with some items priced excessively compared to their actual value [10][14][16]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The rise of alternative dining options such as "mala tang" (spicy hot pot) and "ma la kuan" (spicy skewers) is diverting consumers from traditional hot pot restaurants, with these alternatives offering lower prices and more diverse dining experiences [45][52]. - Major supermarket chains like Sam's Club and Hema are entering the market, providing consumers with safer and more convenient dining options at home [43]. - The emergence of differentiated dining experiences, such as KTV-themed hot pot restaurants, is becoming a trend to attract younger consumers [73][74]. Group 4: Future Directions - Hot pot brands are beginning to recognize the need for a balance between pricing and quality to meet consumer expectations [55][56]. - The concept of "hot pot+" is emerging, where brands are exploring additional services and experiences to enhance customer engagement [68]. - The focus is shifting towards creating unique dining experiences that resonate with younger consumers, who prioritize enjoyment and social interaction over mere food quality [71][75].

Group 1 - The incident involving Haidilao, referred to as the "urine incident," has led to a compensation of 5600 yuan being issued to the customer who hosted the meal, raising questions about whether this amount should be shared among all diners present [1][2] - Haidilao announced that it would refund the full meal cost to 4109 customers who dined at the affected location between February 24 and March 8, along with an additional compensation amounting to ten times the order payment [2] - Legal experts assert that the customer receiving the compensation is not obligated to share it with other diners, as the compensation is intended for the person who paid for the meal and is based on food safety regulations [3] Group 2 - The discussion among diners reflects differing opinions on whether the compensation should be shared, with some arguing that all diners faced the same food safety risk, while others believe that the person who paid should retain the compensation [2] - The legal interpretation emphasizes that the compensation is a right of the paying customer, and they have the discretion to decide how to handle the funds received [3] - The incident has sparked significant online debate, highlighting the social dynamics of sharing compensation in group dining situations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The company is expected to face significant operational pressure in Q1 2025, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and recent public relations issues at specific locations [4][5]. - Despite challenges, the long-term growth logic of "steady revenue growth and outstanding profitability" remains intact, with a projected market capitalization range of HK$570 billion to HK$1,141 billion based on various assumptions [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 431.1 billion, with a net profit of RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and 2.1% respectively [3][6]. - The report projects a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% due to lower beef and lamb prices, despite a slight decline in net profit margin to 10.7% [3][6]. Adjustments to Estimates - The target price has been raised by 25% from HK$15.55 to HK$19.45, reflecting a 19x P/E ratio for 2026 [1][5]. - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates have been slightly adjusted upwards for 2024 and 2025, but down for 2026 [7][6]. Financial Summary - The financial data indicates a steady increase in revenue from RMB 31,039 million in 2022 to an expected RMB 46,859 million in 2026, with net profit projected to grow from RMB 1,374 million in 2022 to RMB 5,362 million in 2026 [6][13]. - The report highlights a consistent improvement in earnings per share (EPS), projected to rise from RMB 0.25 in 2022 to RMB 0.96 in 2026 [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to face significant operational pressure, with potential revenue and profit declines due to high base effects from the previous year [4][5]. - The valuation is based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being RMB 0.82, RMB 0.91, and RMB 0.96 respectively [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 431.1 billion, with a 4.0% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected to be RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase [3][6]. - The report outlines a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% for 2024, driven by lower beef and lamb prices [3][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts downwards for 2024-2026 by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates are adjusted upwards by 2.1% for 2024 and 1.6% for 2025, but down by 0.4% for 2026 [7][6]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization is approximately US$12.16 billion, with a current share count of 5,574 million [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory despite facing challenges in the upcoming quarters [5][6].

前段时间，巴奴火锅创始人杜中兵因为直播言论，被卷进舆论漩涡。 "火锅不是服务底层人民""月薪5000不要吃巴奴"这几句单拎出来很冒犯的话，让巴奴成为众矢之的。 好在杜中兵很快找到了问题的根源：高价不是原罪，傲慢才是。 以下文章来源于金错刀 ，作者云摇 金错刀 . 科技商业观察家。爆品战略提出者。 作者： 云摇 来源：金错刀（ID： ijincuodao ） "爹味"魔咒，再次给大佬上了一课。 但这次事件的核心，一方面是爹味输出的反面教材，另一面是火锅行业的价格战和品质战，已经进入 白热化阶段。 "穷鬼系列"爆火，小火锅模式反超老大、自助形式翻红，本质都是年轻人对性价比的追捧。与此同 时，人均150元左右的品质火锅，正在沦为"消费降级"的活靶子。 这次舆论中，不少年轻人很客观地表示，比起贵不贵，更在乎值不值。 像巴奴18块钱一份的乌兰察布土豆，有乌兰察布的网友吐槽，并不知道有这种土豆。 无数迹象表明，火锅巨头们需要点高价之外的刺激。 01 被穷鬼食堂卷懵， 巨头被迫自降身价 过去，火锅品牌崛起的秘诀基本是：五分靠价格，五分靠逼格。 以呷哺呷哺为代表的价格派，直接打爆性价比。 11年前呷哺的菜单，锅底全部3块钱， ...

文｜ 闰然 编辑｜ 何子维 视觉 | 顾芗 在17岁男孩的小便门事件中，身为受害者的海底捞，却成为了众矢之的。 从结果上看，海底捞不仅道歉，还不惜大方地掏出上千万的天价赔偿金——对4109单顾客，进行10倍补 偿。 但回顾整个事件便会发现，或因海底捞过度想要呈现"服务至上""消费者至上"的完美形象，反而对公众 的愤怒失去了判断，导致其公关策略犯了糊涂。 它宽容了犯事者，却将顾客架在对立面，顺风翻盘的局势被打成了逆风。 "老好人"海底捞 一则让人生理不适的视频在网上流传——2月24日凌晨，两个17岁的男孩，在海底捞上海外滩店聚餐， 醉酒后站上餐桌，向火锅内小便。 3月6日之后，视频火了。 海底捞和消费者，瞬间成了此次事件的直接受害者。 但事关未成年人，海底捞没有第一时间锚定受害者的身份，而是针对始作俑者，采取了原谅的态度，表 示要给他们一个接受教训与成长的机会，并且还呼吁大家避免对其个人及家庭进行不当传播或攻击，并 强调谴责并追究"恶意传播者"的责任。 但不明是非的大度，时机显然不对，共情对象也错了——未成年人公然挑衅公序良俗，向火锅内小便， 这是极为不文明的行为，影响十分恶劣。但海底捞不能保证消费者的用餐安全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent crisis faced by Haidilao and how the company effectively managed the situation through a significant compensation strategy and a shift in public relations approach [2][5][19]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Haidilao initially responded poorly to a crisis involving a customer incident, which led to public outrage and a perception that the company was not supporting its customers [2][28]. - The first response from Haidilao was criticized for being dismissive and not addressing the concerns of other customers, which escalated the crisis [28][31]. Group 2: Compensation Strategy - Haidilao's subsequent response included a remarkable compensation plan where all orders from February 24 to March 8, totaling 4,109 orders, were made free of charge, along with a tenfold compensation for affected customers [10][20]. - The company also committed to covering all legal consequences and pursuing legal action against the minor involved in the incident, showcasing a strong stance against irresponsible behavior [12][13][38]. Group 3: Public Relations and Brand Image - The article emphasizes that Haidilao's approach transformed a potential crisis into a marketing opportunity, effectively turning the situation into a positive advertisement for the brand [19][47]. - By taking decisive action and demonstrating a willingness to compensate customers significantly, Haidilao reinforced its commitment to customer satisfaction and safety, which could enhance its reputation in the competitive hot pot market [22][40]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The article suggests that Haidilao's actions set a new standard in the restaurant industry, challenging competitors to match its level of customer care and compensation [44][46]. - The company's ability to handle the crisis effectively may influence how other businesses approach similar situations in the future, potentially leading to a shift in industry practices [49].

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving a customer urinating in a hot pot at Haidilao has led the company to issue an apology and compensation, highlighting operational issues within the company [1][6]. Compensation and Apology - On March 12, 2025, Haidilao apologized and announced full refunds for 4,109 customers who dined at the Shanghai Bund location between February 24 and March 8, along with additional cash compensation amounting to ten times the order value [1][2]. - The total compensation is reported to exceed 10 million yuan [2]. Incident Details - The "urination incident" originated from a video posted online showing a man urinating into a Haidilao hot pot [3]. - On February 24, two men urinated into the hot pot at the Shanghai Bund store, and the management had no prior contingency plans for such incidents, leading to a delayed response [4]. - Haidilao reported that it took time to identify the incident's location and involved local police for assistance, confirming the incident occurred at their Shanghai Bund store [5]. Operational Issues - The incident has exposed operational weaknesses within Haidilao, particularly in crisis management and public relations [6]. - The company's legal department's response on March 8 shifted the focus from the perpetrators to those spreading the video, which resulted in negative public backlash [7][8]. - There appears to be a lack of unified strategy within the company regarding external communication [9]. Management and Future Considerations - Haidilao acknowledged the challenge of quickly identifying the incident's location due to the absence of surveillance in private dining rooms [10]. - Suggestions for improvement include marking private rooms or enhancing decor to aid in management and customer safety [11]. - Despite the incident, the company is seen as a victim and has potential for growth in the competitive restaurant market [11].