证券研究报告 | 2024年05月16日 海底捞（06862.HK） 买入 经营呈现逆势高景气度，期待运营端的积极变化  公司研究·公司快评  社会服务·酒店餐饮  投资评级：买入（维持评级） 证券分析师： 曾光 0755-82150809 zengguang@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980511040003 证券分析师： 钟潇 0755-82132098 zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980513100003 证券分析师： 张鲁 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120002 事项：海底捞官方数据显示，5月1日至5月4日，海底捞累计接待约750万人次，同比去年增长 约15%，下沉市场门店增长更加显著。 国信社服观点： 1）核心逻辑：经营呈现逆趋势高景气度，高业绩可见度理应享受板块的估值溢价。受外部环境影响，2023H2 餐饮行业普遍面临增长压力，据国信社服跟踪，火锅赛道2023H2同店普遍恢复至2022年同期80%，而海 底捞翻台率同比恢复程度却逆势逐月走高（23年7-12月同比恢复率为1 ...

各位投资人大家好我是天风参赛的分析师罗斯利 今天跟我们同事赵雨凡一起主持海底捞的交流然后我们很荣幸的邀请到了海底捞的L&R陈总跟大家做交流分享因为刚刚那个五一过去公司也跟大家分享了五一比较亮眼的数据然后我觉得在港股餐饮乃至港股消费里我们能有这个表现是非常难得也恭喜公司然后为了红衣要不然 帮大家更新一下就是四五月份情况吧呀辛苦了好呀好呀好呀谢谢苏丽然后也谢谢大家 那其实我们的情况来讲的话呢刚才Felipe也说到了今年来看的话其实整个从一月份到四月份恢复情况还是比较的好的那当然这里面有一个原因就是因为我们其实在二三年年初的时候刚刚这个疫情政策放松的那一段时间我们因为门店的很多员工这个人手不足的情况其实会有不少的门店他开放的区域并不是完全的开放 那所以对于我们来讲的话呢,可能跟大家比较熟悉的其他产业会有一个趋势上的不一样。那对于我们来说,去年的这个开年的一季度,其实对我们来说算是一个比较低的基数。 所以今年在比较正常之后呢能够看到我们一季度的同比翻台率增长情况还是比较的明显的在二月份三月份的时候基本上都有同比超过百分之三四十的增长到四月份以来呢这个增长速度稍微的放缓但是也都是比较区域正常的一个水平了就是在四月份包括 ...

Revenue Growth - Group revenue increased by 33.6% from RMB31,038.6 million in 2022 to RMB41,453.3 million in 2023[48] - Haidilao restaurant operation accounted for 94.7% of total revenue in 2023, with revenue increasing by 35.7% from RMB28,942.6 million in 2022 to RMB39,266.6 million in 2023[51] - Revenue from sales of condiment products and food ingredients increased from RMB662.2 million in 2022 to RMB788.7 million in 2023, accounting for 1.9% of total revenue[50] Customer Spending - Average spending per guest decreased from RMB104.9 in 2022 to RMB99.1 in 2023, primarily due to increased price concessions[51] - Average spending per guest in Tier 1 cities decreased from RMB114.2 in 2022 to RMB105.7 in 2023[53] - Average spending per guest in Tier 2 cities decreased from RMB104.3 in 2022 to RMB98.3 in 2023[53] - Average spending per guest in Tier 3 cities and below decreased from RMB97.9 in 2022 to RMB92.8 in 2023[53] Operational Efficiency - Average table turnover rate for Haidilao restaurants in 2023 was 3.8 times per day, up from 3.0 times per day in 2022[51] - Table turnover rate in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan regions increased from 3.5 times per day in 2022 to 4.2 times per day in 2023[53] Delivery Business - Revenue from delivery business decreased from RMB1,280.1 million in 2022 to RMB1,041.5 million in 2023, accounting for 2.5% of total revenue[50]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating to Haidilao (06862 HK) with a target price of HKD 19 88 per share based on a 20x PE multiple for 2024 [4] Core Views - Haidilao is the leader in the hotpot industry with a 30-year history and a market share ranking first in the industry As of the end of 2023 the company operated 1 374 Haidilao restaurants serving nearly 400 million customers [2] - The company has optimized its store model and improved operational efficiency after the "Woodpecker Plan" which involved closing or suspending some underperforming stores The turnaround rate reached 3 8 times in 2023 up 0 8 times year-on-year [2] - Haidilao's management model is a key driver of its success with a focus on employee incentives and decentralized decision-making This has enabled the company to maintain high service standards and innovate continuously [2] - The company has significant room for expansion in mainland China and is exploring new store formats themes and product categories to drive future growth [2] - The report forecasts Haidilao's net profit to grow by 13 7% 10 8% and 10 2% year-on-year from 2024 to 2026 reaching RMB 5 12 billion RMB 5 67 billion and RMB 6 25 billion respectively [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 41 45 billion up 33 6% year-on-year with EBITDA of RMB 8 80 billion and net profit of RMB 4 50 billion a 227 3% increase [3] - The company's ROE was 39 0% in 2023 and is expected to remain strong at 31 9% 27 0% and 23 7% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - EPS for 2023 was RMB 0 83 and is projected to grow to RMB 0 92 RMB 1 02 and RMB 1 12 from 2024 to 2026 [3] Industry Overview - The hotpot industry is the largest segment in the Chinese dining market accounting for 14% of the total Chinese dining market in 2022 The market size reached RMB 529 3 billion in 2023 with Sichuan-style hotpot being the dominant category [18][19] - The industry is highly fragmented with the top five players accounting for less than 10% of the market Haidilao leads with a 5 8% market share in 2020 [31] - Hotpot is a highly standardized and scalable dining category with a strong social dining appeal making it suitable for chain expansion The industry's chain rate was 20 7% in 2021 higher than the overall dining industry's 18% [23] Company Overview - Haidilao was founded in 1994 and has grown to become a leading hotpot chain with 1 374 stores globally as of 2023 The company serves nearly 400 million customers annually and has 150 million registered members [36] - The company has gone through four stages of development: exploration (1994-2009) management transformation (2010-2016) rapid expansion (2017-2020) and operational adjustment (2021-present) [38] - Haidilao's core business is restaurant operations which accounted for over 95% of its revenue in 2023 Other businesses include delivery and condiment sales [43] Competitive Advantages - Haidilao's management model emphasizes employee incentives and decentralized decision-making enabling the company to maintain high service standards and innovate continuously [54] - The company's "mentorship system" encourages talent development and store expansion with store managers incentivized to train new managers and share in the profits of their mentees' stores [56] - Haidilao's service is a key differentiator with a focus on personalized and attentive customer experiences The company has also invested in technology to enhance the dining experience such as DIY hotpot bases and smart dining systems [63][64] Future Growth Drivers - Haidilao has significant room for expansion in mainland China with a focus on optimizing its store model and exploring new formats and themes [2] - The company is also exploring new growth opportunities such as night economy services and concert-related dining experiences to capture emerging consumer trends [66] - Haidilao's introduction of a franchise model in 2024 is expected to further accelerate its expansion and diversify its revenue streams [38]

又上热搜了！这次还是吐槽“锅底太贵” 为什么火锅锅底越来越贵？ 就在近两日，这个话题在微博上又“爆”了！有人发起话题#60多块的锅底算不算贵#？收获了数千次投票，其中选择“算，很贵”以75%的得票率“遥遥领先”，排行第二的则是“接受不了，不吃了”。选择“还行，能接受”的只有不到10%。 可见，大家对于贵价锅底的“怨气”不小。评论区也有人吐槽：我已经很久没去过火锅店了… 一面是“一点就炸”的顾客，另一面，是“卷生卷死”的行业竞争。 企查查数据显示，2024年第一季度，我国新增火锅相关企业1.14万家，注销吊销企业数量1.27万家。吊销的数量比注册的还有多，可见火锅赛道，承压无数。 从事二手设备回收生意的狗哥透露，今年发现了一个反常现象，年初往往是二手设备买卖的淡季，但是今年的一季度，依然是收不完的倒闭餐饮店，很多老店开的好好的，莫名其妙生意下滑一半。“辣火锅，串串香，老北京铜锅，这几个火锅品类闭店最多。” 不仅如此，年后，在“加盟扩张”道路上抛出橄榄枝的，也有不少是火锅品牌。前有后火锅“0加盟费、豪掷3500万补贴”狂揽优质加盟商；后有海底捞、珮姐等宣布放开加盟，筛选标准足够严苛却收获了大量申请。 不少行业人 ...

2024 年4 月10 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 海底捞 (6862 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$20.51) 颇具确定性且股息优异，理应享受估值溢价 目标价: HK$20.51 当前股价: HK$17.64 • 我们预计 24 年营收/归母净利润分别同比增长11.4%/15.1%至461.8/51.8 亿元； 股价上行/下行空间 +16% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 23.95/11.94 • 海底捞作为业绩确定性得到验证且股息率优异的行业龙头，理应享受估值溢价； 市值 (US$mn) 12,555 • 维持买入评级，下调目标价15%至20.51 港元，对应20 倍2024 年P/E。 当前发行数量(百万股) 5,574 三个月平均日交易額 32 中短期颇具确定性：海底捞23 年翻台率改善至3.8 次/天，对应店均消费人次29 万，基 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 本恢复至19 年水平，验证前期所推行的从产品迭代与营销获客，到薪酬结构调整与门店 主要股东 (%) 运营等一系列管理变革行之有效；当前也在继续探索提高老客复购并拓展新客的方法，进 NP Unite ...

M N 8 Apr 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Haidilao (6862 HK) Looking for expansion opportunities with downside protection We think Haidilao’s downside is protected by its dividend (5.6% FY24E yield and Target Price HK$21.52 the 90% payout ratio should sustain into the future), while the upside is highly (Previous TP HK$24.76) dependent on its speed of store expansion (which is still very slow but we tend Up/Downside 25.1% to think it will accelerate once the franchis ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 海底捞（06862） 证券研究报告 2024年04月 03日 投资评级 23 年业绩符合预期、派息率升至 90%股息率接近 5%，看好基 行业 非必需性消费/旅游及 本面 α 延续和股东回报改善 消闲设施 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 18.06港元 公司发布2023年全年财报：2023年实现营业收入414.5 亿元/yoy+33.6%， 目标价格 港元 归母净利润 45.0 亿元/yoy+174.8%，对应归母净利率 10.85%。符合盈利预 告的收入414亿+、净利润不低于44 亿元的指引。 基本数据 单23H2来看：23H2实现营收225.7 亿元/yoy+42.1%，归母净利润22.4亿 港股总股本(百万股) 5,574.00 元/yoy+43.3%，归母净利率9.9%/yoy+0.1pct、环比-2.0pct。若剔除外汇收 港股总市值(百万港元) 100,666.44 每股净资产(港元) 2.28 益及亏损影响，23H1/23H2 归母净利润约20.7 亿/23.5 亿、23H2 环比 H1 资产负债率(%) 53.33 增长13.7%，23H1/23H2 归母 ...

2024 年 4 月 2 日 公司动态 海底捞（6862.HK） 证券研究报告 食品饮料 表现远超行业，重新开启扩张 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 海底捞2023年收入414亿/+33%，净利润44.9亿/+227%，业绩表现独领风骚。截止 12月底，门店数量1374家，全年新开门店9家。我们预期24/25/26年净利润分别 目标价格： 24.2 元 为46.3/51.6/56.2亿人民币，对应EPS为0.91/1.02/1.11港元。维持“买入”评 现价(2024-3-28)： 17.66港元 级，目标价为24.2港元，较当前股价有37%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 下半年翻台率显著持续修复，表现远超同行。23 年全年门店整体翻台率为 3.8 次/ 总市值(百万港元) 98,436.84 天，较上半年的3.3次有进一步的提升，表明公司下半年翻台水平更高。24年前两 流通市值(百万港元) 98,436.84 个月翻台率环比持续增长，同比增长 30%。春节期间翻台率超过 5 次。公司灵活应 总股本(百万股) 5,574.00 对热点，针对演唱会准备引流活动，表演“科目三”，在抖音平台进行沉浸式直播 流通股本(百万股) ...

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 餐饮 ＃06862 .HK ＃海dy底Com捞pa ny＃ 港股通（沪、深） dyStockco d e＃ ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃title＃ 增持 ( i维nve持stS ） 翻台率增长，盈利改善，派息率大幅提升 uggesti onCh an ge＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 4月 1 日 投资要点 跟 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃ ⚫ sum 维ma 持ry “＃增 持”评级：经过啄木鸟计划的调整，公司 2022 年以来整体开店保守，重点聚焦 踪 日期 2024.3.28 提升存量门店翻台率和盈利能力，从结果上看成效较好，各线城市翻台率持续增长，净利 报 收盘价（港元） 17.66 率亦提升显著。同时公司开放门店加盟，轻资产扩张方式有望带来新的收入增长点和提升 告 总股本（亿股） 55.74 报表净利率。公司积极提升现金管理效率，增长派息率至90%，目前2023年股息收益率 达到4.7%。我们预计公司 2024/2025/2026年营业收入为 458.5/495.9/546.2 亿元，同比增 总市值（亿 ...