Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21][22] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 42.76 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.71 billion RMB, up 4.6% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations [1][9] - The core operating profit reached 6.23 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.7% year-on-year growth, indicating strong operational performance [1][9] - The company is focusing on brand incubation under the "Red Pomegranate Plan," with 11 active entrepreneurial projects, including new brands like "Yanjing Barbecue" and "Xiao Hai Hot Pot" [3][18][20] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the overall table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, an increase of 0.3 times year-on-year, while the average customer spending was 97.5 RMB, a slight decrease of 1.6 RMB [2][11] - The gross profit margin improved to 62.1%, a 3.0 percentage point increase, marking a new high since the company's listing [3][15] - The core operating profit margin reached 14.6%, up 1.9 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 11.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, both representing the best performance since the company went public [3][15] Store Expansion and Market Presence - As of the end of 2024, the total number of stores was 1,368, with 1,355 self-operated and 13 franchised, reflecting a net increase of 25 stores compared to mid-2024 [2][12] - Same-store sales growth was 3.6%, with different growth rates across city tiers, indicating resilience in the core hot pot business [2][12] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 5.38 billion RMB and 6.12 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 6.93 billion RMB, indicating growth rates of 14.4%, 13.7%, and 13.3% [4][21] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16x, 14x, and 12x, respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [4][21]

海底捞2024年营收427.55亿元 净利润47亿元 3月25日，海底捞国际控股有限公司公布截至2024年12月31日的年度业绩报告。数据显示，2024年 海底捞实现营业收入427.55亿元，同比上升3.1%；净利润47.00亿元，同比增长4.6%。核心经营利润为 62.30亿元，同比上升18.7%。收入、净利润实现连续两年增长。 2024年餐饮市场持续增长。国家统计局数据显示，2024年全国餐饮收入增速分别高于国内生产总值 增速、社会消费品零售总额增速0.3个、1.8个百分点，全国餐饮收入55718亿元，增长5.3%；限额以上 单位餐饮收入15298亿元，增长3%。海底捞受益政策推动与行业复苏影响，在门店扩张上，截至2024年 年底，海底捞品牌共经营1368家餐厅，其中自营餐厅中国大陆地区1332家，港澳台地区共23家，加盟餐 厅共13家。海底捞2024年全年共接待顾客4.15亿人次，日均客流量超110万人次，较上年增加4.5%，平 均翻台率达到4.1次/天。截至2024年年末，海底捞会员人数已超过1.8亿人，活跃会员数超过5200万人， 较去年提升8.8%。 在2024年，海底捞正式启动加盟业务，截至20 ...

Core Insights - Haidilao achieved a revenue of 42.755 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1] - The net profit for 2024 was 4.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.6% compared to the previous year [1] - Core operating profit rose to 6.23 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Total number of restaurants operated by Haidilao reached 1,368 by the end of 2024 [1] - The company served 415 million customers throughout the year, with an average daily footfall exceeding 1.1 million, which is a 4.5% increase from the previous year [1] - The average table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day [1] Strategic Initiatives - In August 2024, Haidilao launched the "Pomegranate Plan" aimed at fostering the incubation and development of new restaurant brands, promoting innovation in the dining service sector [1] - By the end of 2024, Haidilao had established 74 new restaurants under 11 different brands, including Yanhui Barbecue and Huoyan Guan, covering various dining scenarios [1] - Revenue from other restaurant brands reached 483 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 39.6% [1] Franchise Development - Haidilao officially initiated its franchise business in 2024, completing the review and establishment of 13 franchise locations by the end of the year [2] - The franchise model has shown feasibility for scaling, with over 70% of franchise applications coming from third-tier cities and below, including many from county-level cities [2] - The company plans to continue enhancing dining experiences and exploring diversified operational strategies while further developing its franchise business [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Haidilao's financial performance for the year ending December 31, 2024, showing a revenue of RMB 42.755 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.708 billion, up 4.65% from the previous year [1][2] - The company's core operating profit reached RMB 6.23 billion, reflecting an 18.74% increase year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of RMB 0.87 and a proposed final cash dividend of HKD 0.507 per share [1] - The average table turnover rate for Haidilao restaurants increased to 4.1 times per day in 2024, compared to 3.8 times in 2023, with a total of 415 million customers served during the year, marking a 4.5% increase [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Haidilao opened 62 new restaurants, including 59 self-operated and 3 franchised, while closing or relocating 70 restaurants, resulting in a total of 1,368 operating restaurants by year-end [2] - The company initiated the "Pomegranate Plan" to encourage the incubation and development of new restaurant brands, leading to the establishment of 11 new brands with a total of 74 stores, generating revenue of RMB 483 million, a 39.6% year-on-year increase [2] - The company will continue to monitor the operations, growth, and risks associated with these new brands closely [2]

Core Insights - Haidilao International Holding Ltd. reported a revenue of 42.755 billion yuan for the year ending December 31, 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and a net profit of 4.7 billion yuan, up 4.6% from the previous year [2] - The company served 415 million customers in 2024, with an average daily customer flow exceeding 1.1 million, marking a 4.5% increase from the previous year [4] - Haidilao is implementing the "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new restaurant brands and expand its business boundaries, with 11 new brands and 74 stores launched by the end of 2024 [6][7] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 42.755 billion yuan, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, while net profit reached 4.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.6% growth [2] - Core operating profit rose to 6.23 billion yuan, marking an 18.7% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The company reported a 20.4% increase in takeaway revenue, amounting to 1.254 billion yuan [4] Customer Engagement and Store Management - The average table turnover rate was 4.1 times per day, indicating efficient customer service [4] - By the end of 2024, Haidilao had over 180 million members, with active members exceeding 52 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on differentiated management by empowering frontline restaurants to cater to diverse customer needs [4] Market Trends and Industry Context - The overall restaurant market in China saw a revenue growth of 5.3% in 2024, with total revenue reaching 55.718 billion yuan [3] - Government policies aimed at stimulating consumption have positively impacted the restaurant sector, contributing to its recovery and growth [2] - Haidilao is adapting its menu to local tastes, launching over 20 national new products and more than 200 regional specialties in 2024 [4] Business Expansion and Innovation - The "Pomegranate Plan" aims to foster the development of new restaurant brands, with a focus on innovation in dining services [6] - The company has initiated a franchise model, with 13 franchise stores established by the end of 2024, primarily in lower-tier cities [8] - Haidilao is exploring various dining formats, including themed restaurants and corporate partnerships, to enhance customer experience [4][8]

Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company's total revenue was RMB 42,754.7 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.1%[6] - The core operating profit for 2024 was RMB 6,229.9 million, up 18.7% compared to the previous year[6] - The net profit for the year increased by 4.6% to RMB 4,700.3 million, with earnings per share rising to RMB 0.87 from RMB 0.83 in 2023[3] - The company's total revenue increased by 3.1% from RMB 41,453.3 million in 2023 to RMB 42,754.7 million in 2024[10] - Revenue from restaurant operations accounted for 94.5% of total revenue in 2024, amounting to RMB 40,397.6 million, up 2.9% from RMB 39,266.6 million in 2023[11] - The takeout business revenue grew by 20.4% from RMB 1,041.5 million in 2023 to RMB 1,253.9 million in 2024, driven by the introduction of a premium fast food service[12] - System sales growth for Haidilao restaurants in 2024 was 3.0% year-on-year[21] - The company reported a financial cost of RMB 274,678 thousand in 2024, down from RMB 351,430 thousand in 2023, a reduction of 21.85%[56] - The income tax expense for the year was RMB 2,013,413, an increase of 54.60% from RMB 1,301,010 in 2023[72] - The company declared a total dividend of RMB 5,995,766,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024, significantly higher than RMB 553,798,000 in 2023[77] Customer Engagement and Operations - The average table turnover rate for self-operated restaurants was 4.1 times per day, an increase from 3.8 times in 2023[6] - The company served 415.0 million customers in 2024, a 4.5% increase year-on-year[6] - The number of active members exceeded 52 million in 2024, representing an 8.8% increase year-over-year[11] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, up from 3.8 times in 2023[14] - The digital operations strategy led to an 88% follow-up rate on customer feedback, enhancing customer retention[11] Expansion and Brand Development - The company opened 62 new restaurants in 2024, including 59 self-operated and 3 franchised, while closing or relocating 70 restaurants[7] - The "Pomegranate Plan" was officially launched to incubate and develop new restaurant brands, resulting in 74 stores across 11 new brands by the end of 2024[7] - The company launched 11 sub-brands under the "Pomegranate Plan" by the end of 2024, covering various dining scenarios[11] - The franchise business was officially launched in 2024, with 13 franchise restaurants approved and established by year-end[11] Cost Management - Cost of raw materials and consumables decreased by 4.3% to RMB 16,211.1 million in 2024, accounting for 37.9% of total revenue, down from 40.9% in 2023[22] - Employee costs increased by 8.2% to RMB 14,113.3 million in 2024, representing 33.0% of total revenue, up from 31.5% in 2023[23] - Rental and related expenses rose by 17.6% to RMB 425.5 million in 2024, maintaining a stable percentage of 1.0% of total revenue[24] - Other expenses increased by 15.7% to RMB 1,864.1 million in 2024, accounting for 4.4% of total revenue, up from 3.9% in 2023[28] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to RMB 13,024,158 thousand in 2024 from RMB 14,907,039 thousand in 2023, a decline of 12.63%[59] - Current liabilities decreased slightly to RMB 7,103,821 thousand in 2024 from RMB 7,241,812 thousand in 2023, a reduction of 1.91%[59] - Non-current assets decreased to RMB 9,757,099 thousand in 2024 from RMB 9,769,959 thousand in 2023, a decrease of 0.13%[58] - Trade receivables decreased from RMB 412.0 million to RMB 346.3 million, maintaining a turnover period of 3.2 days[41] - Trade payables decreased from RMB 1,859.4 million to RMB 1,796.4 million, with a turnover period increasing from 34.3 days to 41.2 days[42] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to enhance customer satisfaction and employee engagement through differentiated management and new restaurant formats[8] - The company will continue to focus on product innovation and market adaptation to meet diverse consumer needs in 2025[8] - Future initiatives include enhancing dining experiences, exploring diversified business strategies, and strategically seeking quality asset acquisitions[55] - The company aims to maintain optimal liquidity through regular monitoring of cash flow and balances to support ongoing business expansion[37] Governance and Compliance - The company has adopted and complied with the corporate governance code throughout the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[92] - The audit committee reviewed the annual performance and financial reporting matters, confirming compliance with relevant accounting standards[96] Shareholder Information - The company plans to propose a final cash dividend of HKD 0.507 per share, totaling approximately RMB 2,534.2 million[7] - The proposed final dividend is HKD 0.507 per share, subject to shareholder approval at the annual general meeting on May 19, 2025[103] - The company plans to suspend share transfer registration from May 14 to May 19, 2025, to determine eligible shareholders for voting at the annual general meeting[104] - The company will also suspend share transfer registration from May 23 to May 28, 2025, to determine shareholders entitled to receive the final dividend[105]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing dynamics of the hot pot industry in China, highlighting the increasing consumer dissatisfaction with high-priced hot pot brands and the rise of alternative dining options that offer better value and experience [2][4][76]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Market Trends - In 2024, the average monthly salary for residents is 3,000+ yuan, making a 5,000 yuan salary above average, indicating that consumers are reevaluating their spending on dining experiences [4]. - There is a noticeable shift among the new middle class, who are abandoning high-priced hot pot options in favor of more affordable alternatives [7][8]. - The perception that high prices equate to high quality is fading, leading to a growing distrust among consumers towards expensive hot pot brands [24][30]. Group 2: Pricing and Cost Challenges - The restaurant industry has entered a cost-up cycle, with operating costs in the dining sector rising nearly 50% year-on-year by Q3 2024 [25]. - High-end hot pot restaurants are facing a closure rate of approximately 30%-35%, with average losses exceeding 2 million yuan per store [28]. - Brands like Ba Nu have faced backlash for their pricing strategies, with some items priced excessively compared to their actual value [10][14][16]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The rise of alternative dining options such as "mala tang" (spicy hot pot) and "ma la kuan" (spicy skewers) is diverting consumers from traditional hot pot restaurants, with these alternatives offering lower prices and more diverse dining experiences [45][52]. - Major supermarket chains like Sam's Club and Hema are entering the market, providing consumers with safer and more convenient dining options at home [43]. - The emergence of differentiated dining experiences, such as KTV-themed hot pot restaurants, is becoming a trend to attract younger consumers [73][74]. Group 4: Future Directions - Hot pot brands are beginning to recognize the need for a balance between pricing and quality to meet consumer expectations [55][56]. - The concept of "hot pot+" is emerging, where brands are exploring additional services and experiences to enhance customer engagement [68]. - The focus is shifting towards creating unique dining experiences that resonate with younger consumers, who prioritize enjoyment and social interaction over mere food quality [71][75].

Group 1 - The incident involving Haidilao, referred to as the "urine incident," has led to a compensation of 5600 yuan being issued to the customer who hosted the meal, raising questions about whether this amount should be shared among all diners present [1][2] - Haidilao announced that it would refund the full meal cost to 4109 customers who dined at the affected location between February 24 and March 8, along with an additional compensation amounting to ten times the order payment [2] - Legal experts assert that the customer receiving the compensation is not obligated to share it with other diners, as the compensation is intended for the person who paid for the meal and is based on food safety regulations [3] Group 2 - The discussion among diners reflects differing opinions on whether the compensation should be shared, with some arguing that all diners faced the same food safety risk, while others believe that the person who paid should retain the compensation [2] - The legal interpretation emphasizes that the compensation is a right of the paying customer, and they have the discretion to decide how to handle the funds received [3] - The incident has sparked significant online debate, highlighting the social dynamics of sharing compensation in group dining situations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The company is expected to face significant operational pressure in Q1 2025, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and recent public relations issues at specific locations [4][5]. - Despite challenges, the long-term growth logic of "steady revenue growth and outstanding profitability" remains intact, with a projected market capitalization range of HK$570 billion to HK$1,141 billion based on various assumptions [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 431.1 billion, with a net profit of RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and 2.1% respectively [3][6]. - The report projects a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% due to lower beef and lamb prices, despite a slight decline in net profit margin to 10.7% [3][6]. Adjustments to Estimates - The target price has been raised by 25% from HK$15.55 to HK$19.45, reflecting a 19x P/E ratio for 2026 [1][5]. - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates have been slightly adjusted upwards for 2024 and 2025, but down for 2026 [7][6]. Financial Summary - The financial data indicates a steady increase in revenue from RMB 31,039 million in 2022 to an expected RMB 46,859 million in 2026, with net profit projected to grow from RMB 1,374 million in 2022 to RMB 5,362 million in 2026 [6][13]. - The report highlights a consistent improvement in earnings per share (EPS), projected to rise from RMB 0.25 in 2022 to RMB 0.96 in 2026 [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$19.45, representing a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HK$16.96 [1][5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates low single-digit growth in both revenue and profit for 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 4.0% to RMB 431.1 billion and a net profit growth of 2.1% to RMB 45.9 billion [3][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to face significant operational pressure, with potential revenue and profit declines due to high base effects from the previous year [4][5]. - The valuation is based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being RMB 0.82, RMB 0.91, and RMB 0.96 respectively [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 431.1 billion, with a 4.0% year-on-year growth. The net profit is projected to be RMB 45.9 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase [3][6]. - The report outlines a slight increase in gross margin to 61.5% for 2024, driven by lower beef and lamb prices [3][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts downwards for 2024-2026 by 6.5%, 9.2%, and 10.5% respectively, while net profit estimates are adjusted upwards by 2.1% for 2024 and 1.6% for 2025, but down by 0.4% for 2026 [7][6]. Market Position - Haidilao's market capitalization is approximately US$12.16 billion, with a current share count of 5,574 million [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory despite facing challenges in the upcoming quarters [5][6].