Key Takeaways Overall impression: Haidilao Hotpot business operation is stabilising and should have started benefiting from the low base. Key points to watch remain macro (especially inflation) and external factors, such as delivery platform price war, which affects dine-in demand. Delivery business and new brands are top-line growth drivers. However, profit contribution for both of them are still non-material. In 1H, delivery business was mildly profitable, while new brands as a whole were slightly loss ma ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the tourism sector, with Ctrip achieving a revenue of 18.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [17] - The report indicates a structural shift in the toy industry, with a net closure of 9 stores in October 2025, leading to a total of 3,967 stores [29] - The restaurant industry is experiencing a contraction in tea supply while coffee continues to grow, with Haidilao focusing on increasing its takeout sales [36] Summary by Sections Ctrip Performance - Ctrip's Q3 2025 revenue reached 18.37 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.5% [17] - The adjusted EBITDA for Ctrip was 6.35 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year [22] - The revenue breakdown shows ticketing, accommodation, vacation, and business travel management growing by 11.6%, 18.3%, 3.1%, and 15.2% respectively [21] Toy Industry - As of October 2025, the number of offline toy stores in China was 3,967, with a net decrease of 9 stores [29] - The average store efficiency for toy brands increased by 10% year-on-year, with top brands like Pop Mart showing significant growth [31] Restaurant Industry - The tea beverage sector is entering a contraction phase, while the coffee sector is accelerating [36] - As of October 2025, the average monthly store efficiency for the tea industry was 212,400 yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year [39] - The coffee industry saw a net increase of 5,600 stores, with an average monthly store efficiency of 289,000 yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year [39]

Core Points - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the results of the quarterly review for the Hang Seng Index series as of September 30, 2025, with changes to be implemented after market close on December 5, 2025, and effective from December 8, 2025 [1] Group 1 - Innovent Biologics has been included in the Hang Seng Index [1] - New Hope Energy, Haidilao, and New Oriental Education have been removed from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [1]

Core Insights - The dining market is increasingly being targeted by the elderly demographic, with companies like Haidilao adapting their services to cater to this group [1][3][4] - The growth of the silver economy is supported by a significant elderly population in China, with 310 million people aged 60 and above, representing 22% of the total population [8][9] - The silver economy is projected to reach a scale of approximately 7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 6% of GDP, with the dining sector being a core area of focus [9][12] Group 1: Company Strategies - Haidilao has implemented an elder-friendly service system, offering activities and discounts specifically for elderly customers, such as games and special menus [3][4] - Starbucks has seen a notable increase in elderly customers, who not only have high repurchase rates but also comparable spending levels to younger patrons, leading to initiatives like coffee tasting events [4][8] - Fast food chains like McDonald's and KFC are also targeting the elderly market with tailored promotions and menu adaptations [6][8] Group 2: Market Trends - The elderly population's stable consumption ability and willingness to spend are driving the silver economy, with a 245% year-on-year increase in orders from users aged 60 and above on food delivery platforms [9][12] - The dining industry is witnessing a shift towards more inclusive and tailored offerings for the elderly, with community dining options and social engagement becoming key components [19][20] - New dining concepts are emerging that focus on social interaction and community, such as themed tea houses and community restaurants designed for elderly patrons [20][22] Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - The complexity of the elderly consumer group requires more nuanced and long-term operational strategies from dining establishments [15][19] - There is a risk of misperception regarding the elderly market, with some businesses focusing only on seasonal promotions rather than consistent engagement [17][19] - Understanding the social needs of the elderly is crucial, as many prefer leisurely dining experiences over quick service, which can impact restaurant efficiency [13][14]

Flash | 13 Nov 2025 08:45:59 ET │ 11 pages HDL saw LSD YoY growth of table-turn in Oct (vs largely flat in 3Q). Given seasonably cold weather in Nov-Dec (which is a peak season for hot pot) and a low comp base in 4Q, mgt sees "less pressure" on table-turn in 4Q25E. Considering a late CNY in 26E and therefore YoY longer CNY holiday period in 26E (which is positive for hot pot biz), mgt anticipates "positive momentum" of table-turn in 1Q26E. Per mgt, its GPM sequentially improved in 3Q25 vs 1H25 and its YoY O ...

Brand Background - The brand "Xiao Hai Ai Zha" under Haidilao has opened its first hamburger and pizza store in Xi'an on November 14, 2023, with plans for a second store in Changsha in December [2] - The new store is an upgrade from the original "Xiao Hai Ai Zha" outlets, which initially focused on fried chicken [2][6] Brand Observation - Haidilao continues to innovate and adjust its sub-brands, focusing on smaller store formats and targeted products to explore broader market potential [10] - The Chinese hamburger market is expected to grow from 6 billion in 2022 to 70.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64% [10] - The pizza market in China is projected to reach 48 billion in 2024 and grow to 77.1 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2022 to 2027 [10] - Both hamburger and pizza products target young consumers, and Haidilao's strategy includes local innovation to differentiate itself in a competitive market [10]

Group 1 - The court in Hangzhou ruled against a platform that engaged in unfair competition by reselling Haidilao discount coupons through unauthorized means, including "order payment" methods [2][4] - The court ordered the infringing store to cease its activities and pay Haidilao 300,000 yuan in economic damages [4] - Haidilao has been actively addressing issues related to the unauthorized sale of discount coupons, emphasizing consumer protection and the enforcement of legal actions against such practices [6] Group 2 - There have been numerous reports of consumers being defrauded when purchasing discount coupons from third-party channels, leading to financial losses [6] - In May 2024, Haidilao issued a statement to combat illegal profit-making activities, including the unauthorized rental or sale of membership rights, and outlined measures such as account freezing and legal accountability [6]

Core Insights - Haidilao has launched a promotional campaign offering free durian to customers, continuing its tradition of "surprising service" [3][7] - The initiative aims to enhance customer experience during wait times, responding to customer feedback for dessert options [4][6] - The effectiveness of this promotion in driving repeat purchases and positive word-of-mouth will depend on the brand's ability to redesign the service experience [3][8] Group 1: Promotion Details - The promotion includes a free durian for each table, available on a first-come, first-served basis, with a limited daily supply [7] - The promotion is currently offered only on weekdays, with additional small snacks provided if durians run out [7] - The initiative was inspired by customer suggestions during a busy period, highlighting the brand's responsiveness to consumer needs [4][6] Group 2: Market Context - The restaurant industry is experiencing intense competition, with many brands mimicking each other's offerings [8] - Experts suggest that relying solely on giveaways like free durians may lead to diminishing returns, emphasizing the need for a more comprehensive customer experience [3][8] - To stand out, Haidilao should consider integrating service elements that address specific customer pain points and create memorable experiences [8]

Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry - The gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with high-end consumption showing resilience due to supply constraints. Monthly gaming revenue from April to July consistently surpassed expectations, with October's gross gaming revenue reaching 24.1 billion MOP, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4][12] - Visitor numbers in Macau are projected to approach 2019 levels, with total inbound visitors from January to September 2025 reaching 29.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 14%, recovering to 98% of 2019 levels [12][13] - The gaming sector is experiencing upward momentum, with the gross gaming revenue recovering to 88% of 2019 levels in Q3 2025, driven by a 13% year-on-year increase [7][9] - The valuation of gaming companies is currently at low levels, presenting potential investment opportunities [15][18] Group 2: Online Travel Industry - The online travel industry is experiencing stable growth, with domestic residents' travel numbers increasing by 18% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, and travel spending rising by 12% [30][31] - The competitive landscape in the online travel sector remains stable, with high entry barriers due to supply chain and customer service advantages [32][33] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to see gradual improvement in profit margins, with a 14% year-on-year increase in core OTA business revenue in Q2 2025 [41][42] Group 3: Restaurant Industry - The restaurant sector is currently in a recovery phase, with the growth rate of social retail dining revenue lagging behind overall social retail growth [50][51] - The chain rate in China's restaurant services is steadily increasing, projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% in 2025, although it remains below the global average of 35% [53][54] - Companies like Mixue and Gu Ming are experiencing high growth rates due to rapid store expansion and effective marketing strategies [59][60]

Core Insights - The 2025 King of Glory Professional League (KPL) annual finals set a Guinness World Record with 62,196 attendees, showcasing the massive popularity of esports and its economic impact [2] - The event significantly boosted local businesses, with food sales and hotel occupancy experiencing substantial increases due to the influx of fans [5][12] Economic Impact - Nearby vendors reported a tenfold increase in sales, with specific items like grilled sausages and meat pies selling far beyond normal levels [4][6] - Restaurants and hotels in the vicinity experienced high demand, with some establishments like Haidilao hotpot seeing long queues that lasted until the early morning [8][11] - The event spurred promotional activities in shopping centers, offering discounts to ticket holders and enhancing overall consumer engagement in the area [6][15] Fan Engagement - The event attracted a young demographic, with many attendees participating in cosplay, reflecting the cultural significance of the game [13][16] - Post-event activities, such as pop-up shops and themed promotions, continued to draw fans, indicating sustained interest in the KPL and related merchandise [16][17] Future Prospects - The success of the KPL finals is expected to lead to more esports events in the region, with venues like the Diamond Center planning to host additional high-profile competitions [18]