2026年1月13日，海底捞一纸公告，瞬间成为餐饮业、资本市场乃至商业财经的热闻：公司创始人、董事会主席张勇，重新出任CEO。 第二天，海底捞股价应声大涨，单日狂飙超9%。 2020年4月，张勇就曾通过公司内部邮件宣布，自己将在10至15年内退休。因此，此举也被外界视为是他提前培养接班团队，为彻底退休做准备。 但事情的发展显然超出他的预计。 此后四年时间里，海底捞非但没有让他更容易彻底退休，反倒陷入罕见的换帅动荡之中，变得更加需要他。 曾被誉为"最牛服务员"的杨利娟，仅在帅位上坚持了两年零三个月，于 2024年6月转而负责海底捞海外业务；杨利娟的继任者苟轶群，更是仅仅干了一年 半便匆匆卸任。 四年三换CEO背后，是海底捞的业绩持续承压。 2025年上半年，海底捞营收同比下降3.7%至207亿元，净利润同比下滑高达13.7%。 许多人都认为，这标志着，海底捞将打响一场大力度的反击战了。 重回一线 55岁的张勇重回一线，距离"退居二线"才不到四年。 2022年3月，张勇在承认"对趋势判断错误"，并为激进扩张导致的巨额亏损负责后，将CEO一职交到了自己最得力的干将杨利娟手上。 更令市场揪心的是核心指标的失守，其直营 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

以下文章来源于红餐网 ，作者红餐编辑部 红餐网 . 做餐饮，上红餐 ！一个有温度的餐饮产业服务平台。 这是 海底捞 首次 以 "店中店" 的形式 试水糖水业务 。 火 锅 巨头 入局 ， 糖水 赛道 " 激战 " 局面 进一步 加剧 。 本文由红餐网(ID：hongcan18)原创首发，作者：周沫；编辑：倩君。 海底捞似乎要对糖水 " 动真格 " 了 。 近日，海底捞首家 "糖水铺"特色主题店在上海亮相，选择在 现有火锅店内 以 "店中店" 的 模式 呈现 ， 主打 "每日鲜作"糖水 。 从早期自助区的免费 DIY糖水，到如今 打造 "火锅+糖水"的 场景 ，海底捞 正 一步步将这道 "餐 后甜点"玩出 新花样 。 只是 ， 在 本 就 竞争激烈 的糖水赛道 ， 这位 火锅巨头 又 能激起多大 水 花 呢 ？ 9.9元起，海底捞开出首家"糖水铺"特色主题店 在海底捞吃糖水， 不是 什么 新鲜事 。 但这一次，玩法 有了 明显 升级 。 过去， 消费者 大多是 在 小料台 见到 糖水 —— 它作为 自助小料的 一部分， 就摆在麻酱、香 油、蒜泥旁边， 包含在小料费内。 客人可以根据个人喜好自由搭配 ， 还能无限 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that price hikes in the consumer staples sector are weaker than expected, while costs remain low [1]. - The monitored spot cost indices for six consumer goods categories have declined, while futures cost indices have primarily increased [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.87% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.15%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.6% and the futures index by +1.81% [35]. - Glass prices have shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% for spot prices and an increase of 3.4% for futures prices [35]. Condiments - The spot cost index decreased by 1.37% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.03%. Year-to-date changes are -0.42% for spot and +2.23% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 2.4% month-on-month for spot prices, while futures prices increased by 6.7% [36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 1.93% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.58%. Year-to-date changes are -0.43% for spot and +1.68% for futures [37]. - Fresh milk prices rose to 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.31%. Year-to-date changes are +0.79% for spot and +3.46% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices increased by 9.6% month-on-month for spot prices [38]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index decreased by 1.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.61%. Year-to-date changes are -1.44% for spot and -0.14% for futures [39]. - Vegetable prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, while the futures index remained unchanged. Year-to-date changes are -1.12% for spot and -0.19% for futures [40]. - PET chip prices increased by 5.4% month-on-month [40].

（企业回应） 近日，海底捞方面透露，伴随过年三件套"美甲、美发、美睫"热度攀升，自1月中下旬后，北京区域海 底捞门店美甲订单呈现明显上升趋势，1月26日至28日，北京80来家门店总计接待近一万五千单美甲， 同比上周同期增加700多单。 海底捞天通苑华联店的一位美甲师介绍，进入寒假后，门店日均美甲订单新增50至60单，随着春节临 近，订单量预计还会持续上涨。 ...

海底捞(06862)午前涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.22%，报16.02港元，成交额2.04亿港元。 消息面上，1月13日，海底捞发表公告，创始人张勇接替苟轶群出任公司CEO，即日生效。花旗对张勇 回归持正面看法，因为创办人往往更聚焦于收入带动的利润增长，并具备强大的执行力与突破创新能 力。该行相信，海底捞在去年下半年翻台率趋稳、翻新门店效率提升，及新业务的销售贡献所支持下， 预计公司的收入增长将重新加快。 天风证券（601162）认为，看好公司经营企稳改善趋势，在创始人及新董事会团队带领下，火锅业务稳 健发展，"红石榴计划"构筑新增长曲线。该行指出，海底捞火锅相对中高价且直营占比高，若经营数据 改善叠加可能的政策刺激催化可能会带来业绩弹性。 ...

消息面上，1月13日，海底捞发表公告，创始人张勇接替苟轶群出任公司CEO，即日生效。花旗对张勇 回归持正面看法，因为创办人往往更聚焦于收入带动的利润增长，并具备强大的执行力与突破创新能 力。该行相信，海底捞在去年下半年翻台率趋稳、翻新门店效率提升，及新业务的销售贡献所支持下， 预计公司的收入增长将重新加快。 智通财经APP获悉，海底捞(06862)午前涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.22%，报16.02港元，成交额2.04亿港 元。 天风证券认为，看好公司经营企稳改善趋势，在创始人及新董事会团队带领下，火锅业务稳健发 展，"红石榴计划"构筑新增长曲线。该行指出，海底捞火锅相对中高价且直营占比高，若经营数据改善 叠加可能的政策刺激催化可能会带来业绩弹性。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The strategic positioning of "service consumption" has been enhanced, expected to become a core engine for driving domestic demand. The State Council's meeting on January 16 emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, providing a clear direction for consumption development in 2026 and the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - During the Spring Festival travel season (February 2 - February 14, 2026), domestic flight ticket bookings exceeded 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The total expected passenger transport volume for civil aviation during the Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [6] - The recovery of dining consumption in Q4 2025 was significantly stronger than that of retail goods, indicating a resurgence in service consumption. From October to December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for dining revenue were 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.2%, respectively, while retail goods growth rates were 2.8%, 1.0%, and 0.7% [6] Summary by Sections - **Recent Industry Performance**: Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown relative returns of 5.35% over one month, 7.38% over three months, and a decline of 3.0% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 6.42%, 8.38%, and 19.81% respectively [4] - **Policy Support**: The government has introduced policies to encourage service consumption, including optimizing school holiday arrangements to promote student well-being, which is expected to boost service consumption growth [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on listed companies in the dining, hotel, and tourism sectors, including China Duty Free Group, Shouhang Hotel, Jinjiang Hotels, and others, as they are likely to benefit from the positive trends in service consumption [6]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stock market opened positively with Hang Seng Index up 0.73%, National Enterprises Index up 0.63%, and Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.56% [1][4] - Major blue-chip stocks like HSBC Holdings rose by 2.23%, Zijin Mining by 2.21%, China Ping An by 1.65%, and JD Group by 1.5% [1][4] - New Oriental saw a decline of 3.56%, Haidilao down 0.75%, and Trip.com down 0.72% [1][4] Company Highlights - CloudWalk Technology (云知声) opened high at 10.56%, expecting to achieve revenue from large model-related businesses of approximately RMB 600 million to 620 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 1,057% to 1,095% compared to RMB 51.87 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024 [1][4] - China Gold International (中国黄金国际) opened up 3.76% and provided production guidance for 2026, estimating copper production at approximately 140 million to 149 million pounds (about 63,500 to 67,500 tons), gold production at approximately 70,732 to 75,554 ounces (about 2.2 to 2.35 tons), and silver production at approximately 4.18 million to 4.82 million ounces (about 130 to 150 tons) from the Jiamar Mine [5] - Vanke Enterprises (万科企业) opened up 2.49%, announcing that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, will provide a loan of up to RMB 2.36 billion for repaying bond principal and interest, with a loan term of 36 months [6] Financial Activities - Vanke also reported that the extension proposal for the principal repayment of its medium-term notes "22 Vanke MTN004" and "22 Vanke MTN005" was approved unanimously at a bondholder meeting [6] - Cao Cao Travel (曹操出行) opened down 1.96%, planning to place 12 million shares at HKD 32.46 per share, which represents a discount of approximately 8.97% compared to the last trading day's closing price, with expected total proceeds of about HKD 389.52 million [6]