炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 正文 2025年7月30日，中共中央政治局会议召开，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 前期回顾和当下形势判断：会议肯定了今年以来的经济工作，表示"我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产 力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强大活力和韧性"；同时也明确了目前我国 面临的风险和挑战，"要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"，说明对经济现状认识 到位，中央支持政策仍有充实空间。 各个方向政策如何定调？ 此外，本次会议针对外贸和当前宏观环境提出，要求"稳住外贸外资基本盘。帮助受冲击较大的外贸企业，强化融资支持，促进内外贸一体化发展。优化 出口退税政策"，因此在上半年中美关税摩擦以及持续到当前的博弈下，我国目前出口增速仍能保持正增长，预计后续关税影响对实体企业的影响在政策 支持对冲下可能边际削弱。 科技创新引领新质生产力发展，依法依规治理企业无序竞争。会议仍然将科技创新放在第二重要位置。在当下经 ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18% to close at 3573.21 points, while the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.6% to 24773.33 points [1] - China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. has an AH premium of 76.75%, ranking 45th among AH shares [1] - At the close, China Galaxy's A-shares were priced at 17.2 yuan, down 2.88%, and H-shares at 10.62 HKD, down 5.35% [1] Company Overview - China Galaxy Securities is a leading comprehensive financial service provider in China's securities industry, known for its historical, brand, and shareholder advantages [1] - The company ranks among the top in the industry in terms of capital scale, profitability, business strength, and risk management capabilities [1] - It offers a wide range of financial services including wealth management, investment banking, institutional business, international business, and investment trading to individual, corporate, institutional, international, and capital market clients [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Securities Index Hong Kong 300 Mainland High Beta Index has shown significant growth, with a 15.91% increase over the past month, 26.48% over the past three months, and 34.82% year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from various strategic investment perspectives, with a base date of December 30, 2005, set at 1000.0 points [1] - The top ten holdings of the index include companies such as Sunac China (3.98%), China Merchants Securities (3.11%), and China Cinda (2.77%), indicating a diverse portfolio [1] Group 2 - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a sector breakdown showing financials at 28.18%, healthcare at 18.44%, real estate at 17.18%, and information technology at 16.55% [1] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, specifically on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, with weight factors fixed until the next adjustment unless special circumstances arise [2]

Key Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery while addressing prominent issues such as boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of internal competition, which is crucial for promoting domestic and international dual circulation [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of accelerating the cultivation of emerging pillar industries and advancing high-quality urban renewal, avoiding the old path of debt-driven growth [2][3] - The upcoming 14th Central Committee meeting in October will focus on drafting the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is seen as pivotal for achieving the long-term goal of socialist modernization [2][11] Macroeconomic Analysis - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5.3%, and emphasized the need for a bottom-line thinking approach to safeguard employment and livelihoods [3][4] - The macroeconomic policy is set to maintain continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that supportive policies will continue to be implemented [13][20] - The focus on fiscal policy will be on timely and effective implementation, with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of fund usage and accelerating the issuance of government bonds [4][19] Real Estate Sector - The importance of urban renewal was reiterated, with a focus on high-quality implementation in line with the Central Urban Work Conference's spirit [26][28] - The transition of urbanization from rapid growth to stable development is expected to enhance the role of urban renewal as a key driver for improving living conditions and urban quality [27][28] - The potential for city renovation projects, particularly in urban villages and dilapidated housing, is anticipated to stimulate housing demand and improve the overall real estate market [27][28] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to experience a gradual rise amid increasing volatility, driven by favorable policies, moderate economic recovery, and the upcoming mid-year performance reports [31][32] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors such as technology, consumption, and cyclical stocks, particularly those with strong value propositions [31][32] - The emphasis on new quality productivity and the potential for structural reforms in the economy are seen as key areas for investment opportunities [31][32]

中国银河（601881）证券表示，在政策效果逐渐展现的基础上，房地产行业估值或迎来整体修复，头部 房企或凭借融资成本较低和核心区域高市占率的优势实现运营改善，并通过估值修复实现整体的β机 会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event "AI Creates Everything · Quantitative Leads the Future" organized by China Galaxy Securities and DolphinDB focuses on the development of the private equity industry and the integration of quantitative technology with financial services, aiming to enhance collaboration between private equity firms and technology companies [1][2]. Group 1: Private Equity Industry Development - The "Starry Navigation Plan" is designed to empower the private equity industry and technology enterprises, promoting collaboration and openness as key drivers for the evolution of quantitative investment [1][2]. - The plan aims to create a "professional, compliant, and warm" private equity service ecosystem, enhancing the capabilities of managers in operational management, strategy trading, and research support [2]. - The initiative includes the establishment of the Starry Manager Club and a recognition system to provide comprehensive services such as product configuration, distribution, strategy incubation, and honor empowerment for private equity institutions [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The event highlighted the transition in the quantitative industry from "tool competition" to "cognitive upgrading," emphasizing the need for managers to provide value-added services beyond products [2]. - The "Qirui Strategy Center" platform developed by China Galaxy Securities offers a full-chain research and trading support service for quantitative managers, featuring high-quality data sources and advanced functionalities [3]. - The platform operates 24/7, providing a high-fidelity environment for strategy development and execution, significantly improving efficiency and speed [3]. Group 3: Compliance and Risk Management - Sanchefa Technology provides comprehensive compliance and risk management services for private equity institutions, including regulatory interpretation and training [4]. - The integration of resources under the "Starry Navigation Plan" aims to enhance the service capabilities of selected private equity managers [4]. - China Galaxy Securities plans to continue collaborating with partners to support the long-term and stable development of the private equity industry in a complex market environment [4].

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出，增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向 好势头。中国银河（601881）证券首席经济学家章俊表示，今年上半年，监管部门在资产端和资金端同 步发力，资本市场的内生质量与配置效率均出现积极改善。"下半年，围绕资产端和资金端的系统性改 革有望进一步增强资本市场的投资吸引力，优化其对内在价值发现机制，提升中长期资本配置效 率。"他说。章俊认为，推动"并购六条"落地和重大资产重组规则优化，将促使资源加速向优质企业聚 集，强化上市公司之间的市场化优胜劣汰。加快构建财务造假综合惩防体系也将提升信息披露透明度和 治理约束效能，市场定价逻辑将更具合理性和稳定性。同时，持续推动中长期资金入市、公募基金改 革、畅通私募股权"募投管退"循环，有助于夯实市场流动性基础，提升投资行为的长期性和理性化，形 成更具韧性的资金生态结构。在章俊看来，尤其是壮大耐心资本，将为科技创新类企业提供稳定支持， 进一步稳固市场服务实体经济的功能定位。(上证报) ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights Haida Group's strong performance in H1 2025, with a significant increase in feed sales and revenue growth, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Haida Group reported revenue of 58.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, with contributions from feed, agricultural products, raw material trading, and animal health products [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 2.654 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.57% increase [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 33.202 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 7.26% [2]. Feed Sales and Growth - Total feed sales in H1 2025 increased by 25% year-on-year, reaching 14.7 million tons, with internal consumption at 1.05 million tons (up 7%) and external sales at 13.65 million tons (up 26%) [3]. - The feed business generated revenue of 47.139 billion yuan, accounting for 80.13% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 9.79% [3]. - The company aims for a total feed sales target of 51.5 million tons by 2030, with a mid-term goal of 7.2 million tons in overseas markets [3]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - Agricultural product sales reached 9.735 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.59% increase, with a gross margin of 20.26% [4]. - The company is adopting a light-asset and risk-controlled breeding model, leading to significant profitability in pig farming [4]. - The company is also focusing on specialized aquaculture, particularly shrimp farming, to enhance competitive advantages [4]. Investment Outlook - Haida Group is positioned as a leading player in the feed industry, with significant growth in production capacity and stable growth across its value chain, including animal health and breeding [5]. - EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 2.96 yuan and 3.43 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19 times and 16 times [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market is active, but the home appliance sector lacks imagination and is relatively stagnant, with investment opportunities arising from leading companies' competitive advantages and stable domestic sales patterns [1] - As of July 25, the home appliance index SW increased by 3.07%, but the market value share of the home appliance sector decreased in Q2 2025 due to concerns over the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy and declining export data [1][2] Group 2: Policy and Retail Trends - The central government allocated 300 billion yuan for a consumption upgrade program, with 162 billion yuan already distributed, but a policy gap emerged in June, leading to a forecasted slowdown in retail growth for home appliances starting in July [2] - The expected retail growth slowdown is compounded by high base effects from last year's subsidies, with production data indicating varying performance across major appliances [2] Group 3: Product Performance - The air conditioning sector benefited from hot weather, with June sales reaching 12.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, although this was below expectations [3] - The average price of air conditioners began to recover post-618 shopping festival, with a 0.7% increase in offline prices and a 15.6% increase in online prices in late July [3] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Home appliance exports have been negatively impacted, with April, May, and June showing year-on-year declines of 2.7%, 8.8%, and 9.0% respectively, reflecting the effects of US-China trade tensions [6] - Companies with production capacity in Southeast Asia are gaining competitive advantages, while others face challenges in shifting production away from the US market [6][7] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - TCL Electronics is expected to see a significant increase in mid-year profits, with a projected net profit of 950 to 1,080 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45-65% [4] - Ecovacs has exceeded performance expectations in the cleaning appliance sector, while DJI is set to launch a new robot vacuum, although its market performance remains uncertain [5]

盘面上，煤炭、油气股活跃，影视院线、军工电子、稀土永磁板块小幅走高；医药股集体回调；婴童概 念跌幅居前。 09:29 煤炭板块多数高开，陕西黑猫、郑州煤电涨超2%，潞安环能涨超1%，中国神华、山煤国际等跟 涨。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大股指集体低开 上证指数跌0.04%，深证成指跌0.23%，创业板指跌0.45%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 1 | 3608.35c | -1.36 | -0.04% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | W | 11262.98 c | -26.43 | -0.23% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | N | 2395.86c | -10.74 | -0.45% | 09:15 人民币对美元中间价报7.1441，调升70个基点。前一交易日中间价报7.1511。 09:21 港股开盘丨恒生科技指数跌1.83% 恒指低开0.74%，恒生科技指数跌1.83%。新能源车企全线走弱，理想汽车发布i8新款后低开9%，比亚 迪股 ...