华泰证券：维持阿里巴巴买入评级 目标价150港元 智通财经7月11日电，华泰证券就阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK)发布研报称，预计该公司2026财年一季度电商 业务受闪购投入影响利润承压，云基本面保持稳健。此外淘宝闪购业务单量爬坡迅速，与远场电商间的 协同仍需一定时间孵化，后续建议关注投入ROI。下调FY26-28非GAAP归母净利润预测20.6/22.2/21.3% 至1,340/1,550/1,697亿元，维持"买入"评级，给予目标价150港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities highlights a recovery in the overall industry prosperity index for June, with a slower decline in the non-financial industry prosperity index [1] Group 1: Earnings Outlook - The second quarter earnings are expected to improve or maintain high growth in sectors such as small metals, PCB, storage, wind power, insurance, thermal power, infrastructure, and certain consumer goods [1] - Industries driven by independent prosperity cycles, including pharmaceuticals (investment and BD), military (domestic orders and military trade), gaming (product cycles), and communication equipment/software (AI), are also recommended for attention [1] Group 2: Beneficiaries of Policy Changes - Sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and showing signs of bottoming out in the prosperity cycle include steel, coal, and certain chemical products, with valuations already reflecting downward expectations [1] Group 3: Export Chain Challenges - The export chain continues to face downward pressure following the global manufacturing cycle, particularly affecting the home appliances, capital goods, and consumer electronics sectors [1]

华泰证券研报称，7月8日，美国商务部长卢特尼克宣布特朗普将对铜加征50%的关税，政策预计于7月 下旬或者8月1日实施。由于距离关税实施较短，判断"抢运"行情基本结束；7月下旬或者8月1日正式加 征50%关税后，消失的出口需求+铜7—8月传统淡季，非美地区供需紧张的格局或逆转，判断短期 LME/SHFE铜价或回调但幅度有限。坚定看好铜价上行趋势，此次回调或是配置良机。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司， 中文公司名稱為華泰證券股份有限公司，在香港以HTSC名義開展業務） （股份代號：6886） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據上市規則第13.10B條規則作出。 茲載列本公司在上海證券交易所網站刊登之《華泰證券股份有限公司2025年面向 專業投資者公開發行短期公司債券（第三期）（續發行）發行價格公告》，僅供參閱。 釋義 於本公告，除文義另有所指外，下列詞彙具有以下涵義。 债券代码：242829 债券简称：25 华泰 S3 华泰证券股份有限公司 2025 年 面向专业投资者公开发行短期公司债券（第三期） （续发行）发行价格公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担个别及连带责任。 华泰证券股份有限公司（以下简称"发行人"）面向专业投资者公开发行面 值余额不超过人民币400亿元的短期公司债券（以下简称" ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the capital market is stabilizing at the bottom, with multiple funding sources supporting bullish sentiment, suggesting a potential upward breakthrough in equities. The brokerage sector is expected to lead the market rally, recommending early positioning and waiting for breakout opportunities [1]. Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is 6,179.1 billion, with a circulating market value of 5,901.2 billion, representing 1.8% and 7.2% of the total market, respectively [2]. - The performance of the non-bank financial sector shows a 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month absolute performance of 9.0%, 16.0%, and 59.5%, respectively, with relative performance of 5.8%, 10.5%, and 42.0% [4]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the equity market has stabilized despite initial shocks from U.S. tariffs, with significant institutional investments leading to a recovery. The overall trend remains positive, with major indices showing an average increase of 1.1% as of June 30, 2025 [8]. - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with the China Bond Index rising by 1.1% year-to-date as of June 30, 2025 [8]. Business Performance - In Q1 2025, listed brokerages reported total revenues of 1,259 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit of 522 billion, up 78% year-on-year. The brokerage income was 327 billion, reflecting a 43% increase year-on-year [25]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the revenue of self-operated businesses, which reached 486 billion, marking a 46% year-on-year growth [30]. Strategic Directions - The report outlines a shift towards internal consolidation and external breakthroughs, with a focus on wealth management transformation and the integration of financial technology to enhance efficiency [6]. - The investment banking sector is expected to see a marginal recovery in equity financing, particularly benefiting from the expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ongoing mergers and acquisitions [6]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts that the industry will achieve total revenue of 4,741 billion in 2025, representing a 5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1,825 billion, up 9% year-on-year [6]. - The brokerage sector is anticipated to lead the market rally, with specific recommendations for stocks that are likely to benefit from policy catalysts and ongoing market trends [6].

华泰证券研报表示，节后 猪价持续强于预期、叠加猪企成本持续改善或有望带动盈利超预期，"反内 卷"政策引导或有望利好2025年下半年、及中长期猪价表现，建议关注生猪养殖板块。其中低成本、优 质猪企盈利兑现能力或更强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation in performance, with economic data having minimal impact on market movements. The overall environment has not shown a significant turning point, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in the bond market in the short term [1][9]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.19% at 121.090, the 10-year main contract up 0.05% at 109.050, and the 5-year main contract up 0.03% at 106.160. The 2-year main contract remained flat at 102.464 [2]. - The yield on major interbank bonds generally rose slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.25 basis points to 1.8635%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.646% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.38 basis points to 4.401% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields, except for ultra-long maturities, generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.9 basis points to 1.498% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Gansu Province's local bond auction results showed bid multiples exceeding 26 times, with the 20-year bond yielding 2.04% and the 10-year bond yielding 1.74% [5]. - Jilin Province's local bond auction also had bid multiples over 26 times, with the 7-year bond yielding 1.65% [5]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 755 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.313% and the 7-day rate increasing by 0.9 basis points to 1.464% [6]. Economic Indicators - June CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from four consecutive months of decline, while PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a reduction in the decline of industrial consumer goods prices, which narrowed from a 1.0% drop to 0.5% [8]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted a certain degree of preemptive positioning in the bond market, with overall trading density decreasing compared to June. The market lacks short-term catalysts, and the potential for rate declines may be limited [9]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggested a slightly bullish outlook for the bond market, although the space for growth is limited due to low credit spreads [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the price gap between international and domestic fertilizers is widening, primarily driven by increased global planting areas and demand, particularly in South America and India, while new industry capacity remains limited [1] Group 1: Demand Factors - Global planting area growth is expected to continue, which will sustain fertilizer demand, particularly in the context of food security [1] - Increased demand is notably observed in regions such as South America and India [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Limited new production capacity in the industry is a significant factor, with overseas companies expanding production less in recent years [1] - Domestic nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer production is constrained by internal demand and slow expansion, while potash fertilizer faces resource constraints [1] - Geopolitical conflicts since the beginning of the year have impacted overseas supply and fertilizer transportation [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The high concentration of the industry has led to reductions in production by leading domestic companies, which supports price stabilization [1] - Domestic leading companies are expected to benefit from improved fertilizer demand and enhanced profitability [1]

Group 1 - The Hongde Science and Technology Innovation Board Comprehensive Index Enhanced Securities Investment Fund will be publicly offered from July 18, 2025, to July 31, 2025 [1] - The fund has two classes: Class A (code: 024509) and Class C (code: 024510) [1] - The fund is managed by Hongde Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - The fund subscription can be processed through various sales institutions including Southwest Securities, CITIC Securities, and several others starting from July 18, 2025 [2][3][4][5][6] - A comprehensive list of sales institutions and their contact details is provided for investor inquiries [2][3][4][5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has launched the Integrated Fund Platform (IFP) order transmission service, enhancing the efficiency of fund distribution and providing a broader range of investment options for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Platform Overview - The IFP includes 33 companies, with 17 fund distributors, including 12 Chinese brokers, and aims to streamline the fund distribution process [1][4]. - The platform is designed to cover the entire distribution cycle of retail funds in Hong Kong, lowering entry barriers for the fund industry and improving market efficiency [3][7]. - The new order transmission service integrates subscription and redemption processes, facilitating smoother operations between fund distributors and registered agents [3][9]. Group 2: Participating Institutions - The 12 Chinese brokers participating in the IFP include notable firms such as China Galaxy International and CITIC Securities, all of which have cross-border wealth management qualifications [2][8]. - Other distributors include major banks like Bank of China (Hong Kong) and China Construction Bank (Asia), indicating a diverse range of institutions involved [4][6]. - The platform also includes six registered agents, enhancing the operational framework of the fund distribution network [5]. Group 3: Impact on Wealth Management - The launch of the IFP is expected to significantly benefit wealth management businesses, particularly for brokers qualified for cross-border wealth management [10][11]. - As of May 2025, the cross-border wealth management program has seen participation from 157,900 investors, indicating a growing market for these services [10]. - Brokers have expressed optimism about the platform's potential to enhance service capabilities and expand the range of fund products available to clients [11]. Group 4: Future Developments - Future phases of the IFP will include agent services and improvements in payment and settlement processes, with ongoing collaboration between HKEX, regulators, and industry stakeholders [12].