Core Insights - The 17th New Oriental Family Education Forum was held in Beijing, focusing on the theme "From 'Track' to 'Wilderness': Reconstructing the Life Framework of Children's Growth" [1] - The forum gathered top experts and practitioners from various fields to address educational anxieties and explore diverse paths for children's comprehensive and healthy development [1] Group 1: Key Discussions - Notable figures, including writer and psychologist Bi Shumin and New Oriental founder Yu Minhong, engaged in deep discussions on the core theme, emphasizing the importance of mental order and life values [1] - Professor Zhang Zhiyong, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, highlighted the essential elements of family education, stating that "life education is the 'root' of family education" and "moral education is the 'soul'" [3] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The forum addressed the current challenges in family education and youth development, aiming to provide solutions to educational competition and reconstruct the growth ecosystem [3] - A consensus emerged that the transition from "track" to "wilderness" requires a collaborative systemic change involving families, schools, and society, urging parents to overcome anxiety and embrace a more relaxed and wise approach to education [3]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that New Oriental's management highlighted several key points during the Q1 earnings call for FY2026, including expectations for accelerated revenue growth in K12 business for Q2, an annual expansion in operating profit margin, and shareholder returns next year not lower than this year's level [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Goldman Sachs maintained its revenue forecasts for New Oriental for FY2026 to FY2028, while raising the non-GAAP net profit forecast by 4% to reflect an 8% increase in non-GAAP operating profit, partially offset by reduced interest income and increased income tax [1] - The target price for New Oriental's H-shares was raised from HKD 42 to HKD 47, and the target price for its US shares was increased from USD 54 to USD 60 [1] Eastern Selection Adjustments - The revenue forecast for Dongfang Zhenxuan was lowered by 12% to 13%, but the adjusted net profit forecast was only reduced by 2% to 3%, reflecting an improvement in profit margin expectations [1] - The rating for Dongfang Zhenxuan was set to "Sell," with the target price increased from HKD 9 to HKD 10.2 [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $1.523 billion for FY26Q1, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous guidance [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 22%, an increase of 1 percentage point [1] - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return over 50% of the previous year's net profit through cash dividends and share buybacks starting FY26 [2] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for FY26Q1 was $1.523 billion, surpassing the upper limit of the previous guidance [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year, with a profit margin of 22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $241 million, a slight decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, primarily due to dividend withholding tax [1] Business Segments - The K12 and university business segments showed significant recovery, with new education business revenue growing by 15.3% year-on-year [1] - Non-academic courses have been launched in approximately 60 cities, attracting around 530,000 students [1] - The adult and university exam preparation business grew by about 14.4% year-on-year, continuing the recovery trend in exam preparation and vocational training [1] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute approximately $190 million in cash dividends this year, equating to $0.12 per share [2] - A maximum of $300 million in share buybacks is planned over the next 12 months, totaling a return of about 132% of FY25 net profit [2] - The projected dividend yield is approximately 2.0% [2] Future Outlook - Management guidance for FY26Q2 revenue is between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 9-12% [2] - For the full FY26, revenue is expected to be between $5.145 billion and $5.390 billion, indicating a growth of 5-10% [2] - The company aims to enhance AI teaching and digital efficiency, optimizing course experience and operational efficiency, which is expected to steadily improve profitability [2] Valuation - The projected net profits for FY26-28 are estimated at $450 million, $492 million, and $531 million respectively [3] - Using a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, the education segment is valued at approximately HKD 769 billion based on a 22x P/E ratio [3] - The total group valuation is approximately HKD 898 billion, translating to a target price of HKD 56.86 per share, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - New Oriental's 1QFY26 revenue reached $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with education business revenue (including cultural tourism) at $1.366 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit was $336 million, reflecting an 11.3% year-on-year growth, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 22%, expanding by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company announced a shareholder return plan, distributing $190 million in cash dividends and repurchasing up to $300 million in stock [1] Education Business Recovery - The revenue from overseas examination training and consulting reached $328 million, growing by 1% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed by 19 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - The company is adjusting its 1-on-1 training model to a 1-to-many format to lower class prices and is expanding its youth overseas examination training services to enhance growth resilience [2] - New business segments, including K9 non-academic training and learning machines, maintained high growth, with revenue increasing by 15% to $403 million [2] Operating Profit Margin Improvement - Despite a slowdown in high-margin overseas study business growth, the increase in the profit margin of quality education business offset this decline [3] - The company implemented measures such as workforce reduction and cost control, with sales expenses at $200 million, up 3.6% year-on-year, and administrative expenses at $370 million, up 2.4% year-on-year, both growing slower than revenue [3] - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin expanded by 1 percentage point to 22%, continuing the trend from 4QFY25 [3] Rating and Future Guidance - The company projects a 2QFY26 revenue growth of 9-12% year-on-year, exceeding the full-year guidance of 5-10% growth [4] - The education business growth is expected to recover, driven by excellent teaching reputation, with a forecasted increase in renewal rates for regular classes [4] - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been raised to $5.38 billion, $5.98 billion, and $6.73 billion, respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates adjusted to $555 million, $610 million, and $679 million [4]

Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance for FY26Q1, with a revenue growth of 6.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous guidance of 2%-5% [1] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 9%-12% for FY26Q2 and maintains an annual growth target of 5%-10% [1] - The out-of-country business showed unexpected improvement, with a 1% growth in exam preparation and a 2% growth in study abroad consulting, indicating a recovery from previous pessimistic forecasts [1] Revenue and Growth Indicators - Deferred revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, and the renewal rate improved across all segments, suggesting robust growth [1] - The K12 business is expected to accelerate significantly in FY26Q2, with K9 growth around 20% and high school showing double-digit growth, validating the strategy of prioritizing product quality [2] - The active paid users in the OMO business reached 452,000, indicating potential for user retention and scalability [2] Shareholder Returns and Financial Health - The company announced a $190 million dividend and a $300 million buyback plan, totaling approximately $490 million, which represents over 130% of FY25 net profit [3] - Cash and cash equivalents stood at $5.03 billion as of FY26Q1, allowing for shareholder returns while maintaining strategic investments [3] - The combination of regular dividends and ongoing buybacks reflects a mature approach to shareholder returns, with a commitment to high payout ratios [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 22.0%, driven by better resource utilization, operational leverage, and effective cost control [4] - The company expects further margin expansion in FY26Q2, with a focus on improving profitability in the core business [4] - The shift in the out-of-country business from being a drag on profits to reducing losses is a positive development [4] Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 at $580 million, $630 million, and $690 million, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17, 15, and 14 for FY2026-2028, indicating a favorable valuation [4]

Core Insights - The latest quarterly financial reports from two major Chinese education companies, TAL Education (好未来) and New Oriental (新东方), reveal divergent growth paths and strategic focuses in the post-restructuring phase of the education industry [3][4]. Financial Performance - TAL Education reported a net income of $861 million for Q2 FY2026, marking a 39.1% year-over-year increase, while New Oriental's Q1 FY2026 net income was $1.523 billion, reflecting a 6.1% growth [1][2]. - TAL's operating profit reached $96.1 million with an operating margin of 11.2%, whereas New Oriental achieved an operating profit of $311 million and a margin of 20.4% [2][9]. - TAL's net profit surged by 116.1% to $124 million, while New Oriental's net profit slightly declined by 1.9% to $241 million [2][9]. Growth Strategies - Both companies are rapidly advancing in educational technology, with TAL emphasizing smart learning devices and digital teaching systems as key growth drivers [5][6]. - TAL's business model is shifting towards a subscription-based approach, aiming to extend the learning lifecycle beyond traditional classroom settings [7]. - New Oriental is focusing on a diversified revenue structure, with significant growth in adult and university exam services, as well as non-academic education [8]. Profitability and Efficiency - New Oriental maintains the highest profitability in the industry, with a focus on cost control and efficiency, while TAL is experiencing rapid profit growth driven by technology and product innovation [9][10]. - TAL's profit margin has doubled year-over-year, indicating a shift towards a technology-driven operational leverage model [10]. Capital Management - New Oriental exhibits a robust capital structure with over $5 billion in cash and equivalents, committing to return at least 50% of its net profit to shareholders [11][12]. - In contrast, TAL is investing heavily in technology and market expansion, reflecting a growth-oriented capital strategy [11][12]. Strategic Vision - TAL is positioning itself as a technology company, focusing on integrating quality educational content with smart devices, while New Oriental emphasizes brand trust and quality educational services [13][14]. - Both companies are addressing the challenge of redefining education in the era of AI and digitalization, albeit through different strategic lenses [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected revenue growth in FY26Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, surpassing previous guidance of 2%-5% [7] - The overseas business showed significant improvement, with a 25% revenue growth in the low-age study abroad segment, indicating a shift in demand rather than a decline [7] - K12 business is expected to accelerate, with anticipated growth rates of approximately 20% for K9 and double-digit growth for high school, validating the strategy of prioritizing product quality [7] - The company announced a shareholder return plan totaling approximately $490 million, which is over 130% of FY25 net profit, indicating strong profit visibility and cash flow [7] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 22.0%, with expectations for further expansion in Q2, driven by better resource utilization and cost control [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from $4.9 billion in FY2025 to $6.3 billion in FY2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 9.96%, 10.00%, and 7.02% respectively [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from $371.72 million in FY2025 to $591.14 million in FY2028, with growth rates of 20.07%, 32.32%, 10.40%, and 8.87% respectively [1][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17, 15, and 14 times for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively based on Non-GAAP metrics [1][9]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - China's official composite PMI data for October is set to be released [3] - Eurozone's core harmonized CPI for October is also scheduled for publication [3] - The US core PCE price index for September will be announced [3] Group 2: Market Performance - US stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.57%, S&P 500 down 0.99%, and Dow Jones down 0.23% [4] - Meta Platforms saw a significant drop of over 11%, marking its largest single-day decline in three years, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $214 billion [4] - International oil prices experienced slight declines, with WTI crude oil down 0.31% to $60.29 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.42% to $64.05 per barrel [6] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Agricultural Bank of China reported a net profit of 222.3 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.28% [23] - Apple Inc. reported Q4 revenue of $102.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with net profit reaching $27.47 billion [24] - Amazon's Q3 net sales were $180.17 billion, exceeding expectations, with a net profit of $21.19 billion [25] Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Updates - China's Ministry of Commerce announced plans to accelerate the development of green and low-carbon logistics [9] - The Chinese government will implement a new policy for duty-free shops starting November 1, 2025, aimed at boosting consumption [10] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has expanded the pilot areas for pension financial products to nationwide, with a trial period extended to three years [12] Group 5: Industry Trends - OpenAI announced plans for the "Stargate" data center project in Michigan, with a planned capacity exceeding 8 GW and an investment of over $450 billion in the next three years [31] - YouTube is undergoing a restructuring focused on artificial intelligence applications, indicating a shift towards AI-driven products [26] - WeChat has launched three new features aimed at enhancing user experience, including bulk message recall and selective notification settings [28]

Core Insights - The establishment of the UOW College Australia preparatory study center in partnership with New Oriental marks a significant step in enhancing educational cooperation between China and Australia [1][4][10] - The initiative aims to provide Chinese students with a smoother transition to studying abroad by improving their academic and language skills in a familiar environment, thereby reducing adaptation challenges and costs [4][9] Summary by Sections Partnership and Ceremony - The ribbon-cutting ceremony was attended by key representatives from both UOW and New Oriental, highlighting the collaborative efforts in the international education sector [4][6] - The event signifies the launch of a new pathway for students to access quality education from UOW, which ranks 184th in the QS World University Rankings for 2026 [1][4] Student Benefits - Students enrolled in the preparatory program will be among the first beneficiaries of this initiative, allowing them to directly enter UOW's undergraduate programs after completing a 7-month course [3][9] - The program is designed to alleviate the preparation period for studying abroad and provide financial relief for families [9] Market Trends - A report indicates that 43% of students applying for undergraduate programs in Australia in 2024 prefer domestic preparatory courses, reflecting a shift towards safer and more adaptable study pathways [9] - The Australian government's supportive policies, including increased international student quotas, enhance the attractiveness of preparatory programs as a bridge to overseas education [9]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $1.523 billion in Q1 FY2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast range of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Deferred revenue stood at $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Business Performance - The study abroad and university student segments outperformed expectations, while K12 business outlook remains positive [2] - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and active paid users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, impacted by scheduling and regional discounts; K12 business revenue is expected to accelerate in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad exam preparation and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, surpassing the previous growth expectation of 10% [2] Future Outlook - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan was announced, with plans to distribute approximately $190 million in cash dividends and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million [3] - The shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated shareholder return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a "better than market" rating due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [4] - The core strategy of "enhancing capabilities and quality" aligns with the industry's shift towards prioritizing quality post-pandemic, reflected in the steady recovery of adjusted operating profit margins and improved K12 student retention rates [4] - Forecasts for adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are $430 million, $480 million, and $530 million, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 20, and 18 [4]