Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with revenue growth and positive operating profit margins, indicating a robust recovery in the travel sector [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached Rmb13.9 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit was Rmb4 billion, with a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 29% [1]. - The company maintains its non-GAAP EPS forecasts of Rmb27.7 for 2025, Rmb29.7 for 2026, and Rmb30 for 2027 [1]. Business Segment Performance - Accommodation reservation revenue increased by 23% year-over-year [2]. - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 8%, packaged tour revenue by 7%, corporate travel revenue by 12%, and other business revenue by 33% [2]. - Revenue breakdown by region: domestic (65% of total revenue, low teens growth), outbound (15%, 20% growth), and pure overseas (20%, 30%+ growth) [2]. Brand Contribution and Outlook - The Trip.com brand contributed 13% of total revenue, with over 50% year-over-year growth [3]. - For Q2 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 14% year-over-year, with domestic business in low teens, outbound travel up by 15%, and Trip.com brand growth exceeding 50% [3]. - The recovery rate of outbound travel compared to 2019 is projected to rise from 50% in Q1 2025 to 60% [3]. Market Position and Rating - The company is positioned as a leader in China's online travel industry, with potential for market share gains internationally [4]. - The target price is maintained at HK$590, indicating a 22% upside, with a Buy rating sustained [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue and profit exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations, driven by favorable policies and recovery in overseas travel demand [1][2] Financial Performance - Overall Q1 revenue reached 13.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus by 0.22% [1] - Operating profit was 3.6 billion yuan with a margin of 26%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 7.34% [1] - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 8.99% [1] Business Segment Analysis - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.39% [1] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, slightly above Bloomberg consensus by 0.20% [1] - Travel vacation revenue was 0.9 billion yuan, a 7% year-on-year increase, below Bloomberg consensus by 5.90% [1] - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 4.36% [1] - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a 33% year-on-year increase, slightly below Bloomberg consensus by 0.96% [1] Growth Drivers - Overseas business saw a 60% year-on-year increase in OTA platform bookings, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [1] - In Q1, inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2%, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, with hotel orders increasing by over 240% [1] - The introduction of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy in December 2024 will expand the list of eligible countries to 54 and open 60 entry and exit points [1] Outbound Business - Outbound hotel and flight bookings have surpassed 120% of the same period in 2019, benefiting from the orderly recovery of capacity [2] - Cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83%-84% of 2019 levels, with predictions to reach 90% by the end of the year [2] Market Outlook - Hotel ADR (Average Daily Rate) saw a high single-digit decline in Q1, but the decline has narrowed in Q2, with low single-digit decreases during the May Day holiday [2] - With increasing travel demand and normalization of supply, hotel prices are expected to stabilize [2] Investment Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%, 12%, and 12% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 3%, 16%, and 14% respectively [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% year-on-year), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% year-on-year) [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, driven by favorable visa-free policies, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [4][5] - The company expects revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: accommodation booking revenue of 5.5 billion (up 23% year-on-year), transportation ticketing revenue of 5.4 billion (up 8% year-on-year), and other business revenue of 1.4 billion (up 33% year-on-year) [4] - The company anticipates adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 16%, and 14% [7][10] - The total market capitalization is 34.79 billion HKD [9]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% YoY), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% YoY), all exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% YoY and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, driven by strategic investments and favorable visa policies [4][5] - The company expects revenues of 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for the same years [7][10] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Overall revenue reached 13.8 billion (YoY +16%), slightly above consensus estimates by 0.22% - Operating profit was 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), exceeding consensus by 7.34% - Adjusted net profit was 4.2 billion (YoY +3%), surpassing consensus by 8.99% [4] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue was 5.5 billion (YoY +23%), above consensus by 1.39% - Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion (YoY +8%), slightly above consensus by 0.20% - Vacation business revenue was 0.9 billion (YoY +7%), below consensus by 5.90% - Business travel management revenue was 0.6 billion (YoY +12%), above consensus by 4.36% - Other business revenue was 1.4 billion (YoY +33%), slightly below consensus by 0.96% [4] International Business Growth - The overseas OTA platform's booking volume increased by 60% YoY, with inbound tourism bookings more than doubling, largely due to strategic positioning and visa policy benefits - Inbound tourist numbers surged by 40.2% YoY, with 75% of visitors from visa-free countries, particularly from South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where hotel orders increased by over 240% [4][5] Future Revenue and Profit Projections - Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with YoY growth rates of +15%, +12%, and +12% - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion, with YoY growth rates of +3%, +16%, and +14% [7][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese companies have a clear insight into consumer trends and market dynamics, which drives their continuous expansion in the stable lodging and ticket booking sectors [1] - The domestic tourism market is experiencing rapid recovery post-pandemic, with four key factors expected to drive growth: lower-tier market consumers, the affluent elderly demographic, the enthusiastic Z generation, and the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism [1] - The current competitive landscape among OTA platforms is stable, and there is optimism regarding the diversification of domestic OTA platforms to enhance business growth [5] Group 2 - Despite the pressure on travel prices due to the rapid recovery of flights and hotel availability, it is anticipated that the decline in travel prices will stabilize by 2025, aided by structural changes in the travel demographic [2] - The OTA platform industry has become an integral part of daily life for Chinese consumers, with increasing penetration rates leading to rapid market growth [3] - Chinese OTA platforms are expanding their business scope through acquisitions and self-built initiatives, particularly in overseas markets, while also launching vacation services to capitalize on the recovery of inbound tourism and the popularity of customized travel [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit exceeding market expectations, driven by controlled marketing expenses and favorable foreign exchange gains [1][3]. Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 16% to 13.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations; non-GAAP net profit reached 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 9% [1]. - The company's hotel booking revenue in Q1 2025 was 5.54 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 1.4% [1]. Development Trends - Domestic tourism demand remains robust, with hotel prices expected to stabilize. The company anticipates a mid-to-low double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic hotel night stays for Q2 2025, with a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) [1]. - For outbound travel, the company expects a 15-20% year-on-year increase in outbound flight and hotel bookings in Q2 2025, recovering to 120% of 2019 levels, despite challenges in the Thai market [2]. Growth Expectations - Trip.com is projected to achieve high growth, with international OTA bookings increasing over 60% in Q1, and inbound travel bookings nearly doubling [3]. - The company expects to maintain a 50%+ revenue growth rate for Trip.com in the second half of the year, supported by strong demand from inbound tourism policies and brand expansion into new markets [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 16.4 billion yuan and 18.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining revenue expectations [3]. - The target prices for the company's shares are set at $75.9 for US stocks and HK$588.5 for Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a potential upside of 13% and 14% from current prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Trip.com Group achieved revenue of 13.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.18%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.188 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with revenue meeting expectations and profit exceeding Bloomberg consensus [1] Revenue Performance - Q1 revenue reached 13.85 billion RMB, aligning with guidance of 13.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - Breakdown of revenue sources: - Transportation ticketing revenue: 5.42 billion RMB, up 8.4% [1] - Hotel revenue: 5.54 billion RMB, up 23.2% [1] - Vacation revenue: 0.95 billion RMB, up 7.3% [1] - Business travel revenue: 0.57 billion RMB, up 12.1% [1] - Other revenue: 1.37 billion RMB, up 32.98% [1] - Domestic hotel booking volume growth reached high teens, with ADR decline being lower than the industry average [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross profit for Q1 was 11.125 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.08%, with a gross margin of 80.44%, down 0.76 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was 4.188 billion RMB, corresponding to a net margin of 30.28%, down 3.78 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The increase in international business share and investment led to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [2] Future Projections - Expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 61.12 billion RMB and 70.96 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 14.68% and 16.10% respectively [3] - Projected Non-GAAP net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 17.383 billion RMB and 20.759 billion RMB, with corresponding net margins of 28.44% and 29.25% [3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 569.30 HKD, corresponding to an 18X PE for 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 13.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 4.19 billion yuan, up 3.3%, both slightly exceeding market expectations. Domestic leisure travel demand has shown steady improvement, while outbound and international business continues to grow significantly, supported by optimized overseas marketing expenses [1][8]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the vast growth potential in overseas markets, with expectations of continued performance improvement as international operations mature and profitability enhances [1][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 44.51 billion yuan - 2024: 53.29 billion yuan (+20%) - 2025E: 61.81 billion yuan (+16%) - 2026E: 70.80 billion yuan (+15%) - 2027E: 80.91 billion yuan (+14%) [3][11]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.92 billion yuan in 2023, reaching 23.99 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13% [3][11]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 19.11 yuan in 2023 to 37.56 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.2 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [3][12]. Business Performance - The company’s revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 includes: - Accommodation bookings: 5.54 billion yuan (+23.2%) - Transportation ticketing: 5.42 billion yuan (+8.4%) - Travel vacation: 0.95 billion yuan (+7.2%) - Business travel management: 0.57 billion yuan (+12.1%) - Other businesses: 1.37 billion yuan (+33.0%) [8]. - The overall gross margin for the reporting period was 80.4%, slightly down by 0.8 percentage points, while the operating profit margin (OPM) was 29.2%, exceeding the expected 27.5% [8]. Market Outlook - The company’s outbound and international business continues to show high growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels, and international OTA platform bookings increasing by over 60% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a 15%-20% growth in outbound business for 2025, driven by high-margin outbound operations [8].