图片来源：Wind 2025年第三季度，泡泡玛特整体收益同比增长245%-250%。具体来看，中国收益同比增长185%-190%， 海外收益同比增长365%-370%，其中亚太同比增长170%-175%；美洲同比增长1265%-1270%；欧洲及其 他地区同比增长735%-740%。同期，泡泡玛特线下渠道收益同比增长130%-135%，线上渠道收益同比增 长300%-305%。 然而，业绩上涨股价却下跌。财报发布当日，泡泡玛特股价报收250.4港元/股，跌幅8.08%，市值一天 内蒸发295.46亿港元，缩水至3362.73亿港元。 国海证券针对泡泡玛特所发布的研报中指出，其多维度运营IP并变现。且产品品类扩张逻辑持续验证， 海外市场表现持续超预期。但需警惕"IP续约不及预期""单一IP依赖"的风险，此外，还包括供应链供货 及质量控制、人力/租金/营销成本增加、市场竞争加剧、估值中枢下移、海外扩张不及预期等。 12月8日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）股价单日跌幅超8%，创近8个交易日新低。截至收盘，股价报200.4港 元，较8月高位以来跌近40%，市值蒸发逾1600亿港元。 值得注意的是，市场看空情绪持续升温 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.23% on December 8, with southbound capital recording a total transaction amount of HKD 943.11 billion, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 15.40 billion [1] Group 1: Southbound Capital Transactions - Total southbound capital transactions amounted to HKD 943.11 billion, with buy transactions at HKD 479.25 billion and sell transactions at HKD 463.85 billion, leading to a net buy of HKD 15.40 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Connect recorded a total transaction amount of HKD 381.14 billion, with net buying of HKD 4.32 billion, while the Shanghai Stock Connect had a total transaction amount of HKD 561.97 billion with net buying of HKD 11.08 billion [1] Group 2: Active Stocks - Alibaba-W had the highest transaction amount among southbound stocks at HKD 71.47 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W at HKD 49.42 billion and SMIC at HKD 45.85 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W led in net buying with HKD 11.73 billion, while Tencent Holdings saw the highest net selling at HKD 7.62 billion [1][2] Group 3: Continuous Net Buying and Selling - Three stocks experienced continuous net buying for over three days, with Xiaomi Group-W leading at 7 days and a total net buy of HKD 62.39 billion [2] - Tencent Holdings and Alibaba-W were among the stocks with the highest continuous net selling, totaling HKD 46.68 billion and HKD 18.81 billion respectively [2]

Market Overview - On December 8, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.23%, closing at 25,765.36 points, while southbound funds through the Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HKD 1.54 billion [1][3] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for the Stock Connect on December 8 was HKD 94.31 billion, with a net buy of HKD 1.54 billion. Specifically, the Shanghai Stock Connect had a trading volume of HKD 56.20 billion and a net buy of HKD 1.11 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect had a trading volume of HKD 38.11 billion and a net buy of HKD 0.43 billion [1][3] Active Stocks - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, Alibaba-W had the highest trading volume at HKD 3.564 billion, followed by SMIC and Xiaomi Group-W with trading volumes of HKD 2.962 billion and HKD 2.618 billion, respectively [1][2] - For net buy amounts, SMIC led with a net inflow of HKD 666 million, with its stock price increasing by 2.94%. Conversely, Hua Hong Semiconductor had the highest net sell amount at HKD 221 million, with its stock price rising by 4.47% [1][2] Shenzhen Stock Connect Highlights - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Alibaba-W also topped the trading volume with HKD 3.583 billion, followed by Xiaomi Group-W and Tencent Holdings with trading volumes of HKD 2.324 billion and HKD 1.980 billion, respectively [2] - The highest net buy was for Xiaomi Group-W at HKD 972 million, despite its stock price declining by 0.47%. Tencent Holdings experienced the largest net sell at HKD 796 million, with its stock price down by 0.82% [2]

泡泡玛特早盘低开低走，截至午间收盘，报201港元，跌幅达8.22%。与此同时，市场看空情绪持续升 温。12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空金额从2.41亿港元大幅上升至6.23亿港元。消息面上， 摩根士丹利近 期报告指出，泡泡玛特正从过去两年的"爆发式增长"过渡到未来的"可持续增长"，预计2026年Labubu收 入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非Labubu IP的多元化驱动。泡泡玛特第三季度业绩亮 眼，整体收益同比激增245%-250%。其中，中国市场收益同比增长185%-190%。海外市场收益同比增长 365%-370%。不过，上述业绩并未阻止股价下跌。此前，伯恩斯坦驻香港亚洲消费股高级研究分析师胡 美林指出，围绕Labubu系列玩具的狂热情绪，正逐渐重现20世纪90年代"豆豆娃"从鼎盛走向崩盘的周 期。她认为市场对泡泡玛特下一个销售增长引擎存在质疑，这意味着股价上行空间有限。 泡泡玛特早盘低开低走，截至午间收盘，报201港元，跌幅达8.22%。与此同时，市场看空情绪持续升 温。12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空金额从2.41亿港元大幅上升至6.23亿港元。消息面上， 摩根士丹利近 期报告指出，泡泡玛特正从 ...

12月8日，泡泡玛特（9992.HK）港股盘中股价跌超9%，引发市场关注。截至收盘，泡泡玛特港股报 200.40港元/股，跌8.49%，总市值为2691亿港元，较上个交易日蒸发约250亿港元，股价较8月高点回落 超40%。 | 日期 | 卖空量 卖空额 卖空均价 | | --- | --- | | 305.12万 6.23亿 204.020 | 12-08 | | 161.70万 3.51亿 217.340 | 12-05 | | 155.26万 3.32亿 214.040 | 12-04 | 德银12月1日研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只大幅提升至年底 月均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热 度消退的前兆。 当前，市场看空泡泡玛特的情绪正持续升温。同花顺iFinD数据显示，自12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空股 数从111.06万股升至305.12万股，卖空金额从2.41亿港元升至6.23亿港元，飙升158%。其中12月8日，泡 泡玛特卖空金额较上一交易日大幅飙升77%，未平仓卖空股数超8400万股。此前，11月21 ...

此前，摩根士丹利报告指出，泡泡玛特正在从过去两年的"爆发式增长"阶段，过渡到未来的"可持续增 长"阶段。该机构预测，泡泡玛特2026年Labubu的收入增速将显著放缓，增长引擎将由单一爆款转向非 Labubu IP的多元化驱动。摩根士丹利将泡泡玛特目标价由382港元下调至325港元，以反映全球消费板 块的不利轮动等因素，亦从侧面反映出市场对潮玩行业高增长可持续性的担忧。 部分机构仍看好泡泡玛特的发展前景。近日，浦银国际发布研报称，作为全球潮玩行业的领先企业，泡 泡玛特拥有稳固的基本面与高确定性的长期增长逻辑。当前该公司估值水平已进入具备较高吸引力的区 间。 华源证券认为，黑色星期五、感恩节、圣诞节接踵而来，海外销售旺季将至，泡泡玛特IP影响力有望持 续释放。华源证券表示，泡泡玛特老IP持续运营，新IP逐步发力，产品形态从盲盒、毛绒拓展至可动玩 偶、饰品等，带动品牌影响力持续破圈。公司作为中国潮玩行业的头部企业，具备IP玩具全产业链运营 能力，通过出众的IP创造、运营能力及渠道端多样的消费者触达能力持续高质量发展，且伴随公司海外 业务逐步扩大、产品海外影响力不断提升，有望打开第二增长极。华源证券持续看好公司在潮 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing trend of IP collaborations in various consumer sectors, highlighting their potential to enhance brand growth and product upgrades while connecting with consumers' emotional values [1][2][17]. Group 1: IP Collaborations - The box office for "Zootopia 2" has surpassed 3 billion, showcasing the popularity of IP collaborations this year, which include partnerships with brands like McDonald's, Yili, and Uniqlo [1]. - IP collaborations have permeated daily life, influencing various aspects of consumption, from food to fashion and even pet products [1]. - Brands are increasingly recognizing the importance of emotional value in consumer preferences, making IP collaborations a strategic direction to meet market demands [1][2]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The concept of "emotional value" and "pleasurable consumption" has gained traction among the new generation of consumers, who prioritize emotional satisfaction over mere utility [2][15]. - The "Guzzi economy" is experiencing explosive growth, with the market expected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 40.63% [5]. - The number of pan-anime users in China is projected to reach 503 million by 2024, indicating a growing mainstream acceptance of previously niche markets [5]. Group 3: Brand Strategies - Brands like Luckin Coffee have successfully integrated IP collaborations into their marketing strategies, conducting multiple partnerships each month to drive traffic and sales [5]. - The collaboration between brands and popular IPs, such as the partnership between "Stinky Treasure" and "Zootopia 2," has generated significant consumer engagement and excitement, leading to viral social media interactions [10][12]. - Emotional connections with consumers are becoming crucial for brands, as seen in "Stinky Treasure's" efforts to engage with young audiences through interactive marketing and product innovation [12][14]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The rise of products that provide strong emotional value, such as collectibles and immersive experiences, is reshaping consumer spending habits, moving from practical to emotional consumption [15][16]. - The success of brands like Pop Mart, which saw a 204.4% year-on-year revenue increase, illustrates the potential of emotional connection and cultural recognition in driving sales [15]. - Companies are increasingly challenged to not only deliver quality products but also to provide additional value that resonates with consumers' emotional needs [19].

雷递网 乐天 12月8日 曾经被市场热捧的泡泡玛特（股票代码："9992"）正遭遇一轮做空。 泡泡玛特今日股价为200.4港元，较前一交易日下跌8.49%；以收盘价计算，公司市值为2691亿港元。 泡泡玛特今年8月最高股价曾达到339.8港元，这意味着，泡泡玛特的股价已较最高峰时期下跌41%，市值蒸发高达1870亿港元。 2，核心IP"Labubu"稀缺性消失。 德意志银行最新调研指出，为应对上半年供不应求，公司把Labubu的月产量从1,000万只提高到5,000万只，结果二级市场溢价快速缩水：隐藏款价格较峰 值腰斩，常规款3.0、4.0已跌破官方零售价；新品"The Monsters 1 a.m."系列发售即破发。大规模量产被视为"潮流疲劳"的前兆，引发市场对增长持续性的 担忧。 3，海外销售"高基数"下的降速担忧。 公司三季度美国业务同比增速虽仍高达1,200%，但11月"黑五"期间线下销售环比走弱，市场预计当季美国增速将降至500%以下。市场人士指出，投资者 担忧其在美国"黑五"促销期间的销售表现可能不及预期。 投资者担心海外爆发式红利见顶，成为触发做空情绪的重要导火索。 4，机构下调估值与空头加码。 ...

Core Insights - On December 8, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), SMIC (00981), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) were the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 3.564 billion, 2.962 billion, and 2.618 billion respectively [1] - In the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Alibaba-W (09988), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Tencent Holdings (00700) led the trading volume, with amounts of 3.583 billion, 2.324 billion, and 1.980 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 3.564 billion with a net buying amount of +412 million [2] - SMIC (00981) recorded a trading amount of 2.962 billion with a net buying amount of +666 million [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading amount of 2.618 billion with a net buying amount of +201 million [2] - Pop Mart (09992) achieved a trading amount of 2.348 billion with a net buying amount of +302 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 1.531 billion with a net buying amount of +33.99 million [2] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 3.583 billion with a net selling amount of -515 million [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a trading amount of 2.324 billion with a net buying amount of +972 million [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a trading amount of 1.980 billion with a net selling amount of -796 million [2] - SMIC (00981) achieved a trading amount of 1.623 billion with a net selling amount of -199 million [2] - Pop Mart (09992) had a trading amount of 1.282 billion with a net buying amount of +130 million [2]

自12月2日以来，泡泡玛特卖空股数从111.06万股增至161.70万股，同期卖空金额也从2.41亿港元大幅上 升至6.23亿港元。 12月8日，泡泡玛特开盘闪崩，一路低走，截至收盘跌近8.5%，为六周多来最大跌幅；近一个月累计跌 超14%，与8月高点相比跌约40%，市值蒸发超1800亿港元。 市场看空情绪持续升温。港交所12月8日披露数据显示，截至收盘，泡泡玛特沽空金额为10.92亿港元， 较上一交易日上升210.58%，较最近30个交易日均值上升47.35%；沽空比率为19.23%，较近30个交易日 沽空比率均值的偏离幅度达-17.33%。 据智通财经报道，德银最新研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1000万只 大幅提升至年底月均5000万只。该行警示，对于依赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规 模量产往往是热度消退的前兆。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 此前11月13日晚，泡泡玛特Labubu新品上市，热度明显下降，其在二级市场的溢价已明显回落。其中 隐藏款溢价幅度缩水超50%，而3.0及4.0常规款在二手平台售价已跌破官方零售价。 ...