Core Insights - The opening of the first store of Fei Dazhu Chili Stir-Fry in Nanjing on November 15 attracted massive crowds, leading to what has been termed a "phenomenal queue" [2] - Nanjing has become a focal point for the "first store" economy, with policies introduced in 2022 to promote this trend, resulting in the introduction of 276 first stores in the past seven months, averaging about 40 new stores per month [3][4] - The city has been recognized as a pilot city for new consumption models, receiving financial support from the central government due to its strong consumer base and innovative development [3] First Store Economy - The first store phenomenon is reshaping the commercial landscape in Nanjing, with a significant increase in foot traffic and consumer engagement [3][4] - The restaurant sector leads the first store introduction, accounting for 44.73% of new stores, while retail follows closely at 43.96%, together contributing to 88.7% of the market share [6] - The introduction of first stores has been linked to increased sales and customer flow in surrounding businesses, with some restaurants experiencing wait times of up to an hour [5][6] Cultural and Historical Integration - Historical districts like Mendo and Xinanli are becoming experimental grounds for first stores, blending cultural heritage with modern retail experiences [8][9] - The MINISO FRIENDS store in Mendo has attracted a young audience, showcasing a mix of cultural and creative products [7][8] - The integration of first stores into historical areas has revitalized these spaces, creating unique consumer experiences that combine shopping with cultural engagement [9][10] Innovation and Consumer Experience - The concept of "micro-innovation" is emphasized as a key driver for the success of first stores, allowing brands to differentiate themselves while minimizing risks [13][14] - Brands like Ma Wuwang are leveraging innovative strategies, including seasonal product iterations and collaborations with popular IPs, to maintain consumer interest and drive repeat purchases [15][16] - The focus on creating immersive and engaging shopping experiences is evident in the design and operation of new stores, which aim to enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty [12][19] Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Nanjing has attracted over 1,500 first stores, including global and Asian firsts, positioning itself as a leader in the first store economy [16][18] - The city's commercial landscape is evolving, with a mix of high-end and innovative retail options catering to diverse consumer preferences [16][18] - Upcoming projects, such as the Jinling Changlefang, aim to further enhance the cultural and commercial offerings in Nanjing, indicating a continued focus on integrating new retail concepts with local heritage [18][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Pop Mart (09992) maintains a "buy" rating due to its rich IP matrix and mature operational capabilities, which continue to activate overseas markets and expand offline channels, leading to sales surges during holiday seasons [1][2] - The company has successfully expanded its global presence, with a total of 171 overseas retail stores as of October 30, including 62 in North America, 28 in Europe, and 44 in Southeast Asia, indicating significant growth potential in new regions [2] - The popularity of the Labubu IP and other new products is expected to drive social engagement and revenue growth during the upcoming holiday season, particularly around Halloween and year-end festivities [2][3] Group 2 - The company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities, with successful product innovation maintaining fan engagement, while the overall brand strength has significantly improved due to the global success of Labubu and other leading IPs [3][4] - The business model is viewed as having strong competitive barriers, with the ability to realize long-term value from IP through effective operations, as evidenced by the healthy supply-demand ecosystem for its products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), highlighting its strong IP matrix and operational capabilities that continue to activate overseas markets and expand offline channels, leading to sales surges during holiday seasons [1] Group 1: Global Expansion and Market Demand - The globalization process is progressing steadily, with a focus on expanding overseas supply chains and channels to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category has strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the number of overseas retail stores reached 171, with significant growth potential in North America (62 stores), Europe (28 stores), and Southeast Asia (44 stores) [1] - The recent Halloween product launches in North America have generated strong sales, and the upcoming holiday season is expected to boost social engagement and revenue growth for new IPs like Labubu [1] Group 2: Brand Strength and IP Development - The success of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the brand's strength significantly improving [2] - Labubu's revenue contribution is healthy, and the company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other key IPs has elevated Pop Mart's brand presence, exemplified by participation in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3: Long-term Business Model Viability - The company is viewed as one of the most competitive globally in terms of IP design, operation, and supply chain, capable of realizing long-term value through effective IP management [3] - Recent product launches have maintained a slight premium, indicating a healthier supply-demand ecosystem compared to June, which is beneficial for cultivating long-term fans [3]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks experienced a volatile trend in November, with the index fluctuating between 25,178.63 and 27,188.81 points, failing to break the 27,000-point mark or drop below 25,000 points [1][2] - The market was initially buoyed by the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown and easing tensions between China and the U.S., but later faced declines due to concerns over potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait [1][2] Sector Performance - Bank stocks performed well, with several state-owned banks reaching historical highs, while innovative drug companies like BeiGene (06160) also saw significant gains [2] - Solid-state battery stocks showed strong performance, driven by trends in energy storage and price increases, with notable gains from companies like Longpan Technology (603906) and Weichai Power (000338) [2] Economic Indicators and Expectations - The Federal Reserve's December meeting is a key focus, with market expectations for a rate cut rising significantly, from about 30% to 80% following dovish comments from Fed officials [3] - Upcoming economic work meetings in December are expected to provide guidance on fiscal and monetary policies, with potential increases in deficit rates and special bond quotas [4] Currency and International Factors - The Chinese yuan continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, indicating strong domestic factors driving this trend, alongside positive sentiment from foreign investors towards Chinese assets [5] - The market is closely monitoring Japan's potential interest rate hike, which could lead to capital inflows into undervalued Hong Kong stocks [5] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for December emphasizes following market expectations, particularly regarding policy changes and major events [7][8] - Key sectors to watch include technology, consumer goods, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from upcoming trends and events [8] Company Highlights - **Rongchang Bio (09995)**: Reported a revenue of 1.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, with a gross margin of 84.27% [11] - **Leap Motor (09863)**: Achieved a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.3%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan [14] - **TCL Electronics (01070)**: Reported a 8.7% increase in TV sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rise in MiniLED TV sales [16][17] - **MGM China (02282)**: Announced a net income of 8.51 billion HKD in Q3 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase, driven by strong high-end demand [28][29] - **China Gold International (02099)**: Achieved a revenue of 925 million USD in the first three quarters of 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, with a significant increase in gold and copper production [30][31]

Summary of Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (9992.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods, specifically in the IP collectibles market - **Market Cap**: Approximately US$37.7 billion as of November 27, 2025 Key Points 2026 Outlook - **Price Target**: Adjusted from HK$382.00 to HK$325.00, reflecting market conditions and growth expectations [1] - **Sales Forecast**: Expected total sales of Rmb48 billion in 2026, representing a 26% year-over-year growth [11] - **Growth Drivers**: Sustained momentum anticipated from China and APAC regions, supported by strategic marketing and store openings in the US [1][2] Performance Metrics - **Revenue Breakdown**: - Labubu sales projected at Rmb15.5 billion in 2025, with growth moderating to 13% in 2026 [3][17] - Non-Labubu IPs expected to contribute Rmb22.4 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 35% in 2026 [11][13] - **Net Profit Margin**: Expected to remain high, around 32% in 2026, supported by lower advertising and promotional expenses [4][46] Market Dynamics - **US Market Growth**: Forecasted sales growth of 34% in 2026, with a long-term view that the US market could surpass China due to its size and demand for IP collectibles [22][23] - **Offline Expansion**: Emphasis on increasing offline presence, which currently accounts for only 35% of US revenue, compared to 60% in the broader toy and hobby category [25][30] Strategic Initiatives - **Product Launches**: Management plans to increase product launches in 2026, including new figurine collections and plush series [20][21] - **Localized Marketing**: Enhanced marketing efforts to strengthen Labubu's global presence through localized designs and collaborations [31][32] Financial Adjustments - **P/E Ratio**: Target P/E reduced from 32x to 26x for 2026, reflecting unfavorable market conditions and a focus on near-term growth [5][59] - **Sales Volatility**: Increased sales volatility expected in the short term due to market dynamics and consumer behavior shifts [5][59] Regional Insights - **Greater China**: Sales estimated at Rmb21 billion in 2025, with a growth forecast of 22% in 2026 [38] - **APAC Opportunities**: Strong growth potential in Japan and Korea, leveraging cultural similarities and consumer preferences [42][43] Risks and Considerations - **Market Sentiment**: Current bearish sentiment may overlook the long-term growth potential driven by a recurring customer base [2][3] - **Supply Chain Challenges**: Management is exploring production options in Latin America to shorten supply chains and improve US operations [35] Conclusion - Pop Mart is positioned for sustained growth in the IP collectibles market, with strategic initiatives aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing brand presence both domestically and internationally. The company’s focus on offline expansion and localized marketing efforts is expected to drive future sales growth, despite current market volatility and adjustments in financial projections.

Core Conclusion - The notion of "insufficient consumption in China" is a distorted perception amplified by pricing and statistical methods. Bank of America provides extensive data showing that the true picture of Chinese consumption is not "volume shrinkage," but rather "high volume, low price." Total commodity consumption has reached or even surpassed that of the US, Japan, and South Korea; service consumption has met basic standards but still has gaps in quality. The main contradiction in the current market is the mismatch between "mass supply" and "upgraded demand." Companies focusing on the four key areas of "Efficiency, Experience, Service, Globalization (E2SG)" will thrive through cycles [1]. Group 1: Commodity Consumption - China's total commodity consumption is impressive, with certain categories outperforming developed countries. For example, per capita egg consumption is 128.5 g/day, which is 6% higher than the US and 42% higher than the global average. Sulfur consumption is 1117.9 g/day, which is 3.2 times that of the US. Seafood consumption is 114 g/day, nearly double that of the US. However, dairy consumption is only 86.9 g/day, which is 1/7 of the US level, but this gap is mitigated by plant proteins and eggs. The ownership of cooking appliances is 2.14 times the global average and 1.22 times that of the US. The number of new energy vehicles is 7.7 per thousand people, surpassing the US by 1.66 times and Japan by 8.75 times [3][4]. Group 2: Service Consumption - In terms of service consumption, China has met basic standards but still has quality gaps. The average housing area per person is 49 m², slightly below the US's 65 m² but higher than the UK and France. Medical visits average 6.8 times per year, exceeding the US by 3.4 times. Education duration is 15.5 years, on par with the US and Japan, but extracurricular spending is only $140/year, which is 1/28 of South Korea's. The prices for leisure and entertainment, such as concerts and exhibitions, have increased by 53%, indicating a significant supply-demand gap in high-quality offerings [5][6]. Group 3: Misconceptions of Consumption - The illusion of "insufficient consumption" stems from three main sources: 1. Low prices: Most goods/services are priced at only 20%-60% of US prices (e.g., mobile plans at 15%, taxis at 20%, utilities at 24%). 2. Supply chain advantages: China's role as the "world's factory" and innovations in distribution (like community group buying) continue to drive prices down. 3. Statistical discrepancies: If government transfer payments are included, the actual consumption to GDP ratio aligns with that of South Korea, which is approximately 40% [6]. Group 4: Mismatches and E2SG Investment Framework - There are three core mismatches in the market: 1. Supply vs. Demand: There is an oversupply of mass-market products, but insufficient emotional value and experience. 2. Channels vs. Communication: Fragmented media and ineffective traditional marketing require precise targeting and content-driven e-commerce. 3. Expectations vs. Reality: While income expectations are weak, there is a high demand for quality, necessitating affordable yet high-quality offerings [7]. Group 5: E2SG Investment Tracks - The E2SG investment framework emphasizes four key dimensions for companies to succeed in a "high volume, low price" market: 1. Efficiency: Achieving low costs and quick turnover through supply chain optimization and scale effects. 2. Experience: Creating differentiation through product innovation and capturing emotional consumption needs. 3. Service: Filling the gap in high-quality supply. 4. Globalization: Leveraging China's high volume and low price advantage to expand into international markets [10][11][12]. Group 6: Recommended Companies - Bank of America has identified seven companies with long-term competitive advantages across various sectors, including: - Pop Mart: Strong IP operation capabilities and global expansion, with an expected EPS growth of 30% by 2026. - Midea: Leading in global white goods with supply chain efficiency, focusing on overseas OBM business growth. - Geely: Rich in new energy vehicle reserves, planning to launch over 10 new models by 2026 with a target growth of 50%-80%. - Huazhu Group: Benefiting from leisure travel demand recovery and expanding through a light asset model, with a projected 21% CAGR in profits from 2024-2026. - Trip.com Group: Leading in OTA with expected 45% growth in international business revenue over the next six years. - Tencent Holdings: Dominating digital entertainment with stable mobile game revenue and AI-driven efficiency improvements. - Damai Entertainment: Leading in live entertainment ticketing with a projected 60% CAGR in profits from 2025-2028 [20][21].

Core Insights - The top three stocks with net inflows are Alibaba-W (09988) with 1.522 billion, Pop Mart (09992) with 385 million, and China Merchants Bank (03968) with 330 million [1] - The top three stocks with net outflows are the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) with -2.261 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with -1.182 billion, and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with -833 million [1] - In terms of net inflow ratios, China National Freight (00598) leads with 73.90%, followed by Southern Eastern Select (03441) with 64.44%, and COSCO Shipping Ports (01199) with 60.69% [1] - The stocks with the highest net outflow ratios include Ruian Real Estate (00272) at -64.09%, CNOOC Services (02883) at -62.56%, and Haitian International (01882) at -55.09% [1] Net Inflow Rankings - The top ten stocks by net inflow include: - Alibaba-W (09988): 1.522 billion, 8.82% [2] - Pop Mart (09992): 385 million, 19.66% [2] - China Merchants Bank (03968): 330 million, 32.52% [2] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093): 241 million, 20.20% [2] - Vanke Enterprises (02202): 196 million, 35.18% [2] - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869): 180 million, 11.11% [2] - China Life Insurance (02628): 168 million, 15.04% [2] - UBTECH Robotics (09880): 148 million, 21.68% [2] - Bilibili-W (09626): 135 million, 20.46% [2] - Lion Group (02562): 132 million, 17.89% [2] Net Outflow Rankings - The top ten stocks by net outflow include: - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800): -2.261 billion, -16.10% [2] - Tencent Holdings (00700): -1.182 billion, -13.16% [2] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828): -833 million, -10.01% [2] - Meituan-W (03690): -365 million, -2.74% [2] - China Mobile (00941): -268 million, -23.21% [2] - SMIC (00981): -255 million, -7.67% [2] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347): -227 million, -10.96% [2] - China Hongqiao Group (01378): -196 million, -18.31% [2] - BYD Company (01211): -153 million, -5.55% [2] - HSBC Holdings (00005): -153 million, -14.03% [2] Net Inflow Ratios - The top stocks by net inflow ratio include: - China National Freight (00598): 73.90%, 13.0298 million [3] - Southern Eastern Select (03441): 64.44%, 3.7299 million [3] - COSCO Shipping Ports (01199): 60.69%, 11.5153 million [3] - Qingdao Bank (03866): 54.25%, 11.6628 million [3] - China Power (02380): 51.21%, 15.0679 million [3] - Tanwan (09890): 47.54%, 2.8146 million [3] - Power Development (01277): 47.25%, 9.1556 million [3] - Shougang Resources (00639): 45.84%, 15.6165 million [3] - Dashi Holdings (01405): 44.46%, 5.6236 million [3] - Qingdao Port (06198): 44.08%, 2.5357 million [3] Net Outflow Ratios - The top stocks by net outflow ratio include: - Ruian Real Estate (00272): -64.09%, -1.9067 million [3] - CNOOC Services (02883): -62.56%, -56.8889 million [3] - Haitian International (01882): -55.09%, -10.1836 million [3] - Hong Kong and China Gas (00003): -54.67%, -129 million [3] - Angelalign Technology (06699): -48.57%, -34.5458 million [3] - Anhui Wanshan Expressway (00995): -46.19%, -22.9518 million [3] - 361 Degrees (01361): -42.89%, -3.5273 million [3] - Greentown Management Holdings (09979): -42.86%, -5.2056 million [3] - Weigao Group (01066): -42.55%, -44.5428 million [3] - Fenbi (02469): -41.23%, -14.4094 million [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming overseas sales peak for Pop Mart, driven by its IP influence, with participation in major events like the Thanksgiving parade enhancing brand visibility [4] - The cosmetics collection store channel is gradually recovering, with Naturals leading in both overall and domestic rankings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-care products [4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase, with the beauty care index up by 0.50%, retail index up by 3.45%, and social services index up by 3.92% during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 6.3%, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][18] - The average sales per store in the cosmetics collection channel grew by 1.2%, with customer transactions increasing by 9.4% [4] Investment Analysis Recommendations - Focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, and leading brands in ancient gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [16] - In the collectible toy sector, attention should be given to companies with strong IP creation and operational experience, such as Pop Mart [16] - For ready-to-drink tea, consider strong brands with extensive market coverage, like Mixue Group and Guming [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the steady progress of globalization, with a positive outlook on overseas supply chain and channel expansion to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category possesses strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the company has expanded its overseas retail store count to 171, aligning with its strategic plan, with significant growth potential in North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Asia [1] Group 2 - The performance of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the company's brand strength significantly improving [2] - The company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities, maintaining fan engagement through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other leading IPs has elevated the company's brand power, as evidenced by participation in major events like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3 - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 38.865 billion, 52.738 billion, and 66.946 billion respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook on store openings and product launches [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 13.648 billion, 18.429 billion, and 23.569 billion, indicating confidence in the company's long-term operational capabilities and competitive landscape [2]

2025.11. 29 本文字数：1319，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 韦薇 咨询机构弗若斯特沙利文（Frost & Sullivan）数据显示，2015年至2024年，全球潮玩市场规模从87亿元增长至448亿元，年复合增速接近23%。在这 期间，包括欧美、日韩以及中国在内的潮玩市场均快速增长。如今，北美、欧洲和中国已成为全球前三大市场，而东南亚、东欧等新兴市场近年的增速 也不断加快。 载有Labubu的花车（来源：第一财经摄像） 近两年来，众多中国新消费企业进军海外市场，以寻求更高的利润率增长，包括名创优品、瑞幸咖啡、喜茶、霸王茶姬等。其中，名创优品股份有限公 司旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY正加速海外开店。 凯思博（Keywise）中国股票基金经理徐涛此前对第一财经提及，对于优秀的潮玩IP企业，甚至在北美等国际市场脱颖而出，其创造力、全球影响力、 渗透力、营销能力都毋庸置疑，若估值回调到合理范围，亦可能再度引发投资者兴趣。 但是，在他看来，中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。强劲的IP周期与社交媒体传播力都将继续加速中国新消费的 海外扩张，而这种增长则并非是"一次性 ...