Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the upcoming overseas sales peak for Pop Mart, driven by its IP influence, with participation in major events like the Thanksgiving parade enhancing brand visibility [4] - The cosmetics collection store channel is gradually recovering, with Naturals leading in both overall and domestic rankings, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-care products [4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among younger generations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for investment opportunities [4][16] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector saw a weekly increase, with the beauty care index up by 0.50%, retail index up by 3.45%, and social services index up by 3.92% during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 6.3%, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][18] - The average sales per store in the cosmetics collection channel grew by 1.2%, with customer transactions increasing by 9.4% [4] Investment Analysis Recommendations - Focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei, and leading brands in ancient gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [16] - In the collectible toy sector, attention should be given to companies with strong IP creation and operational experience, such as Pop Mart [16] - For ready-to-drink tea, consider strong brands with extensive market coverage, like Mixue Group and Guming [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the steady progress of globalization, with a positive outlook on overseas supply chain and channel expansion to meet global fan demand [1] - The collectible toy category possesses strong display, social, and gifting attributes, making offline channels crucial for sales and brand marketing [1] - As of October 30, the company has expanded its overseas retail store count to 171, aligning with its strategic plan, with significant growth potential in North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Asia [1] Group 2 - The performance of a single IP does not hinder the overall platform development, with the company's brand strength significantly improving [2] - The company has demonstrated its long-term IP operation capabilities, maintaining fan engagement through product innovation and iteration [2] - The global popularity of Labubu and other leading IPs has elevated the company's brand power, as evidenced by participation in major events like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [2] Group 3 - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 38.865 billion, 52.738 billion, and 66.946 billion respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook on store openings and product launches [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 13.648 billion, 18.429 billion, and 23.569 billion, indicating confidence in the company's long-term operational capabilities and competitive landscape [2]

2025.11. 29 本文字数：1319，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 韦薇 咨询机构弗若斯特沙利文（Frost & Sullivan）数据显示，2015年至2024年，全球潮玩市场规模从87亿元增长至448亿元，年复合增速接近23%。在这 期间，包括欧美、日韩以及中国在内的潮玩市场均快速增长。如今，北美、欧洲和中国已成为全球前三大市场，而东南亚、东欧等新兴市场近年的增速 也不断加快。 载有Labubu的花车（来源：第一财经摄像） 近两年来，众多中国新消费企业进军海外市场，以寻求更高的利润率增长，包括名创优品、瑞幸咖啡、喜茶、霸王茶姬等。其中，名创优品股份有限公 司旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY正加速海外开店。 凯思博（Keywise）中国股票基金经理徐涛此前对第一财经提及，对于优秀的潮玩IP企业，甚至在北美等国际市场脱颖而出，其创造力、全球影响力、 渗透力、营销能力都毋庸置疑，若估值回调到合理范围，亦可能再度引发投资者兴趣。 但是，在他看来，中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。强劲的IP周期与社交媒体传播力都将继续加速中国新消费的 海外扩张，而这种增长则并非是"一次性 ...

当巨型彩球在晨光中缓缓升起时，纽约的空气里已经弥漫着一年一度"梅西百货感恩节大游行"的节日气 息。 在人群的惊呼声中，一个意想不到的主角抢走了所有目光——Labubu。 美国当地时间11月27日，在今年的感恩节花车游行中，泡泡玛特的花车首次登陆纽约。在"Pop City"主 题花车上，一只棕色的Labubu和一只粉色的Mokoko与Skullpanda、Dimoo和Molly等角色一起出现在， 吸引了众多纽约客和美国当地游客的驻足观看。 但是，在他看来，中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。强劲的IP周 期与社交媒体传播力都将继续加速中国新消费的海外扩张，而这种增长则并非是"一次性"的。 未来，北美市场无疑将是中国新消费发力的重点。 泡泡玛特COO司德此前也解释称，美国市场非常大，购买力非常旺盛。同时，美国消费者对整个IP设 计、周边衍生品的需求是很旺盛的。美国市场的零售亦非常成熟，不管是购物中心体系、零售人才等各 个方面都足够好。但是，美国在产品更新、创意设计等方面的节奏，未必赶得上中国的设计效率和迭代 速度。 "其实这是我们两年前就看明白的事情，但我们也确实花了两年时间找到好的 ...

泡泡玛特这个名字对于很多美国人而言仍然陌生，但多数人都知道Labubu，尤其是孩子。一位被父母 带着来看花车巡游的小女孩茉莉对第一财经表示："我是在社交媒体上知道这些潮玩的。" 一位名叫迈克的"纽约客"对第一财经表示，"我是这个中国潮玩的粉丝，但你要确认Labubu究竟有几颗 牙齿，应该是9颗，不然就是假货。" 中国新消费的后续空间取决于创造新IP、不断引发共鸣以及出海的能力。 当巨型彩球在晨光中缓缓升起时，纽约的空气里已经弥漫着一年一度"梅西百货感恩节大游行"的节日气 息。 在人群的惊呼声中，一个意想不到的主角抢走了所有目光——Labubu。 美国当地时间11月27日，在今年的感恩节花车游行中，泡泡玛特的花车首次登陆纽约。在"Pop City"主 题花车上，一只棕色的Labubu和一只粉色的Mokoko与Skullpanda、Dimoo和Molly等角色一起出现在， 吸引了众多纽约客和美国当地游客的驻足观看。 凯思博（Keywise）中国股票基金经理徐涛此前对第一财经提及，对于优秀的潮玩IP企业，甚至在北美 等国际市场脱颖而出，其创造力、全球影响力、渗透力、营销能力都毋庸置疑，若估值回调到合理范 围，亦可能 ...

Market Overview - On November 28, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.34%, closing at 25,858.89 points, with a total net inflow of southbound funds through the Stock Connect amounting to HKD 2.727 billion [1][3] - The total trading volume for the Stock Connect on the same day was HKD 60.238 billion, with a net buy of HKD 2.727 billion [1][3] Stock Performance - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, the total trading volume was HKD 37.898 billion, with a net buy of HKD 0.933 billion; in the Shenzhen Stock Connect, the trading volume was HKD 22.339 billion, with a net buy of HKD 1.794 billion [1][3] - The most actively traded stock in the Shanghai Stock Connect was Alibaba-W, with a trading volume of HKD 4.408 billion and a net buy of HKD 0.800 billion, closing up by 0.60% [1][2] - Tencent Holdings and Pop Mart were also among the top traded stocks, with trading volumes of HKD 1.528 billion and HKD 1.305 billion, respectively [1][2] Net Buy/Sell Analysis - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Tencent Holdings had the highest net buy amount of HKD 0.435 billion, while the stock closed flat [2] - The stock with the highest net sell amount was SMIC, with a net sell of HKD 0.162 billion, while its stock price increased by 0.66% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the new consumption industry [3] Core Insights - New consumption is characterized by new demand from emerging consumer groups like Generation Z and a shift from leverage-driven consumption to income-driven consumption among older demographics [5][17] - The supply side benefits from China's robust manufacturing capabilities and the internet's ability to reshape business models and efficiency [5][17] - The report highlights two main investment opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, and defensive cyclical sectors like liquor and travel [5][4] Summary by Sections New Consumption: What is New Consumption? - New consumption has gained traction in recent years, initially a term from the primary market, now widely recognized [17] - It encompasses both new demand from younger consumers and a shift in older consumers' preferences towards more rational spending [17][21] New Demand: Stars Gather to Form Light - Emotional consumption and the rise of national trends are significant drivers, with luxury attributes associated with products [46] - The report identifies key sectors: IP toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [5][4] New Supply: Old Trees Sprout New Buds - The report emphasizes that industries with easier pathways develop first, while more challenging sectors follow as technology and information improve [33] - It discusses the efficiency gains in retail and service sectors through standardization and technological advancements [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two types of opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors (e.g., trendy toys, gold jewelry) and defensive cyclical sectors (e.g., liquor, travel) [5][4] - Specific companies to watch include Pop Mart, Mijia, and various tea brands [5][4] Emotional Consumption and National Trends - Generation Z's emotional consumption is highlighted, with a significant portion willing to pay for emotional value [21][23] - The report notes the increasing acceptance of Chinese brands among younger consumers, contrasting with older generations' preferences [21][22] Gold Jewelry Market - The gold jewelry market is projected to grow significantly, with ancient gold jewelry gaining popularity due to its cultural significance [86][87] - The market size for ancient gold jewelry is expected to reach 4,214 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% [86][87] IP Toy Market - The report outlines the rapid growth of the IP toy market, with a projected market size of 1,741 billion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% [69][70] - The emotional value associated with IP toys is a key driver of consumer interest and market expansion [78][79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on cross-regional expansion and IP development to support long-term operations, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit projected over the next few years [7]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas retail presence, with 171 stores globally, and is well-positioned to meet growing demand from international markets [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong brand power and competitive advantages in IP design, operation, and supply chain management, which are expected to sustain long-term value creation [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections show a substantial increase from RMB 6.301 billion in 2023 to RMB 66.946 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% [5][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 1.184 billion in 2023 to RMB 23.569 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 28% [5][8]. - The report anticipates a significant rise in earnings per share (EPS), from RMB 0.88 in 2023 to RMB 17.55 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [5][8].

Core Insights - On November 28, 2025, Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Pop Mart (09992) were the top three companies by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 4.408 billion, 1.528 billion, and 1.305 billion respectively [1] - Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, and Pop Mart also led the trading volume in the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 1.568 billion, 1.067 billion, and 0.860 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 4.408 billion with a net buying amount of +0.800 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 1.528 billion with a net selling amount of -0.172 billion [1] - Pop Mart (09992) achieved a trading amount of 1.305 billion with a net buying amount of +0.208 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 1.304 billion with a net selling amount of -0.138 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a trading amount of 1.251 billion with a net buying amount of +0.366 billion [1] - Other notable companies included UBTECH (09880) with 0.783 billion (+78.0527 million), Meituan-W (03690) with 0.774 billion (+0.240 billion), and Huahong Semiconductor (01347) with 0.759 billion (-77.2344 million) [1] Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect - Top Active Companies - Alibaba-W (09988) had a trading amount of 1.568 billion with a net buying amount of +0.294 billion [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) recorded a trading amount of 1.067 billion with a net buying amount of +0.435 billion [1] - Pop Mart (09992) achieved a trading amount of 0.860 billion with a net buying amount of +0.341 billion [1] - SMIC (00981) had a trading amount of 0.792 billion with a net selling amount of -0.162 billion [1] - Meituan-W (03690) saw a trading amount of 0.639 billion with a net buying amount of +0.230 billion [1] - Other notable companies included Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 0.578 billion (+1.05 million), GAC Group (02238) with 0.524 billion (+15.6696 million), and China Mobile (00941) with 0.492 billion (-1.69835 million) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expanding its global presence and IP portfolio, which supports long-term operations. The retail store expansion is expected to activate new user demand in various regions [9] - The company has demonstrated strong IP operation capabilities, maintaining fan engagement through product innovation and iteration. The overall brand strength has significantly improved [9] - The long-term business model is viewed positively, with competitive advantages in IP design, operation, and supply chain management [9] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been revised upwards for 2025-2027, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 6,301 million RMB - 2024: 13,038 million RMB - 2025E: 38,865 million RMB - 2026E: 52,738 million RMB - 2027E: 66,946 million RMB - Net profit projections for the same period are: - 2023: 1,184 million RMB - 2024: 3,220 million RMB - 2025E: 13,648 million RMB - 2026E: 18,429 million RMB - 2027E: 23,569 million RMB - The company expects significant growth rates, with net profit growth rates reaching 324% in 2025 [7][10]