中国规模最大、增速最快的潮玩集合品 牌，产品与渠道双轮驱动 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——TOP TOY 招股书梳理报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陈筱(分析师) | 021-38675863 | chenxiao@gtht.com | S0880515040003 | | 赵旖旎(研究助理) | 021-23183268 | zhaoyini@gtht.com | S0880125042251 | 本报告导读： 公司作为名创优品集团的全资附属公司成立，现为中国规模最大、增速最快的潮玩 集合品牌。公司积极建设 IP 矩阵，自研产品占比显著提升，线上与线下渠道共振， 推动场景创新与消费者触达，有望持续推动盈利能力快速增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 研 传播文化业《Sora2 正式发布，加快推动 AI 视频 发展》2025.10.06 传播文化业《Sora2 正式发布并推出同名社交 APP，AI 视频加快 PGC 和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment of the Hang Seng Index on September 5 will include China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart, increasing the number of constituent stocks from 85 to 88, which is expected to attract passive fund inflows and lead to significant trading volume and price volatility for these stocks [2][3]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The inclusion of China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart in the Hang Seng Index is anticipated to draw passive investment, resulting in increased trading activity and price fluctuations for these stocks [2][3]. - Pop Mart will also be added to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, while other stocks like Crown City Watch and Jewelry and Sipai Health will be removed from the index [2]. - The Hang Seng Composite Index will see an increase in constituent stocks from 502 to 504, with the inclusion of China Foods and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Historical trends indicate that active funds often position themselves ahead of index announcements, leading to noticeable volatility in related stocks prior to the effective date [3]. - Passive funds typically adjust their holdings on the last trading day before the effective date, which may result in a surge in trading volume and price movements, particularly for small-cap stocks [3]. - The adjustment is expected to enhance market confidence in the relevant sectors and stocks, as the Hong Kong market is viewed as a "global value trap" with low valuations providing a good margin of safety for investors [3]. Group 3: Fund Inflows - Goldman Sachs estimates that consumer retail, software and services, and automotive stocks will see the most passive fund inflows, ranging from $300 million to $780 million [4]. - Specific stocks like Horizon Robotics, Pop Mart, BYD, Meituan, Xiaomi, and Alibaba are projected to receive significant net buying, estimated between $185 million to $610 million [4]. Group 4: Company Profiles - China Telecom is a leading player in the telecommunications industry, focusing on 5G construction and cloud computing, reflecting the importance of traditional industry leaders in the index [5]. - JD Logistics represents the new economy logistics sector, highlighting the index's focus on high-growth and core supply chain enterprises [5]. - Pop Mart, as a representative of the trendy toy culture, has seen significant growth in market capitalization and liquidity since its listing, becoming a key player in the new consumption sector [5]. - BYD is a global leader in electric vehicle manufacturing, with a diverse business portfolio that includes passenger cars, commercial vehicles, batteries, semiconductors, and mobile components, exemplifying technological innovation and the green energy transition [5]. - Meituan is a leading e-commerce platform in China, covering a wide range of services and representing the platform and digital economy through innovative business models [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing optimistic growth prospects due to successful overseas expansion and the emergence of new IPs [11]. Core Insights - The company reported profits exceeding expectations for the first half of 2025, with significant growth anticipated in key markets, particularly in the Americas, where new IPs are expected to gain consumer favor [2]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 138.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, while net profit was 46.8 billion RMB, up 385.6% [11]. - The IP matrix has formed a "one strong, many strong" pattern, with five major IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in revenue, indicating robust growth potential in overseas markets [4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue to grow from 6,345 million RMB in 2023 to 68,713 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.4% [5]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 1,082 million RMB in 2023 to 23,843 million RMB in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 127.5% in 2024 [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 61.32% in 2023 to 76% by 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a current market capitalization of 430,279 million HKD, with a 52-week price range of 45.35 to 320.40 HKD [8]. - The report highlights that the Americas market has seen a revenue increase of over 11 times year-on-year, with expectations for continued high growth [11].

Fixed Income - The bank wealth management market's existing scale reached 30.67 trillion yuan as of H1 2025, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, surpassing the average change of -0.13 trillion yuan from H1 2021 to H1 2024 [2][7][8] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products weakened in H1 2025, with an average yield of 2.12%, down 0.53 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [9][10] - The market is expected to stabilize above 30 trillion yuan in H2 2025, with a focus on long-term municipal investment bonds and capital bonds [10] New Consumption - Maternal and Infant Industry - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry, with the market size projected to reach 76,299 billion yuan in 2024 and 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [12][13] - The birth population in China is expected to increase to 9.54 million in 2024, marking a rise of 520,000 from 2023, the first increase since 2017 [13] - The policy aims to alleviate family burdens and enhance birth rates, benefiting sectors such as dairy products, education and training, and infant care [13] New Consumption - Investment Opportunities - The high-end beauty sector is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR of 9.6% for skincare and 10.8% for makeup from 2023 to 2028 [14][15] - The ancient gold market shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028 [15][16] - The current beverage market is seeing a rise in ready-to-drink products, with the market size for ready-to-drink beverages reaching 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market [16][17] Medical Devices - Kaili Medical - Kaili Medical is positioned as a leader in ultrasound and endoscopy equipment, with new product launches expected to enhance market penetration [19][20] - The company has expanded its workforce significantly, preparing for a recovery in the medical device sector, with procurement activities showing signs of normalization [20][21] - Revenue forecasts for Kaili Medical indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.388 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.224 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Transportation - YTO Express - YTO Express reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume growth of 19.34% [23][24] - The express delivery market is experiencing structural growth, with YTO's business volume growth outpacing overall market growth [24][25] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability in the express delivery sector, with YTO's net profit per ticket projected to increase significantly [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of self-produced podcasts by brands is a significant trend, driven by the need for deeper engagement and connection with consumers, moving away from traditional advertising methods [7][18][22]. Group 1: Growth of Podcasts - The number of Chinese podcasts surged from 11,000 in June 2020 to 42,000 by June 2024, indicating a robust growth in the medium [6]. - Over 30 brands have ventured into self-produced podcasts in the past five years, including luxury brands like GIADA and LV, as well as tech companies like Feishu and Zhihu [11]. Group 2: Types of Brand Podcasts - Two main categories of self-produced podcasts have emerged: those focusing on practical value (e.g., career and finance) and those exploring the "spiritual world" of contemporary individuals [15][16]. - Popular examples include Feishu's "Organizational Evolution" and GIADA's "Rock in the Flower," which cater to different audience needs [15][16]. Group 3: Reasons for Brands to Produce Podcasts - Self-produced content allows brands to create a more authentic connection with consumers, moving away from overt sales tactics [18][19]. - Brands are increasingly choosing podcasts as they offer a platform for deeper storytelling and engagement, particularly appealing to younger, educated audiences [22][23]. Group 4: Audience Characteristics - Podcast listeners are predominantly young, with 70% being post-90s and post-00s, and they tend to be well-educated and have higher income levels [28]. - The audience is concentrated in first-tier and new first-tier cities, with a significant portion holding bachelor's degrees or higher [25]. Group 5: Production Process and Challenges - The production process for brand podcasts is described as flexible and lightweight, allowing for high-value content creation with relatively low effort [29][30]. - Despite the potential for engaging content, brands face challenges in reaching wider audiences, as emotional connections are often more effective than functional value in attracting listeners [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity and value of Labubu collectibles, particularly in the context of a recent auction that set a record price, highlighting the economic impact of the blind box market and the success of Pop Mart as a leading player in this industry [21][17][25]. Group 1: Labubu Collectibles - Labubu collectibles have gained immense popularity, with some items in the secondary market selling for over 30 times their original price [21]. - A recent auction saw a unique mint green Labubu sell for 1.08 million yuan, setting a new record for Labubu collectibles [17]. - The auction also featured a limited edition brown Labubu that sold for 820,000 yuan, indicating strong demand and high valuation for these items [17]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Pop Mart - Pop Mart's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 13.038 billion yuan, with its stock price significantly increasing, making it a leading player in the blind box economy [25]. - The company's market capitalization has reached 366.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, reflecting its strong performance and investor interest [25]. - The blind box economy has not only benefited Pop Mart but has also contributed to a broader trend of collectible toys gaining traction in China and abroad [21][27]. Group 3: Cultural Influence - The article notes that Chinese pop culture, including collectible toys, is gaining international recognition, enhancing China's global image [27][29]. - The Chinese government is promoting the idea of a "cool" China, with cultural products like Labubu playing a role in this narrative [29][30].