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中信证券:美国联邦基金利率有望在2026年年底降至3.25%左右的水平 若美国利率下行幅度和节奏快于我国 将继续支撑人民币企稳偏强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 00:28
Core Viewpoint - Overall, the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relationship is expected to stabilize in the short term, benefiting export expectations for 2026, but long-term structural contradictions still exist, requiring the exploration of alternative markets and enhancement of independent technology [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. federal funds rate is projected to decline to approximately 3.25% by the end of 2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to narrow the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., supporting a stable and strong renminbi if the U.S. rate decreases faster than China's [1] Group 2: Currency and Trade Dynamics - Increased willingness of export enterprises to convert foreign exchange is likely to boost the supply of U.S. dollars in the market, which is favorable for the appreciation of the renminbi [1] - China's current account remains in surplus, with a substantial trade surplus expected in 2025, providing fundamental support for the appreciation of the renminbi [1]
中信证券:银行政策趋于灵活 估值延续提升
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 00:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent appreciation of the RMB is favorable for the performance of RMB-denominated equity assets [1] - The central bank is expected to adopt more flexible policy tools in the next phase, with a focus on domestic demand targets [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, stable macro-financial conditions are expected to lead to a stable banking operating environment, with bank interest margins anticipated to bottom out and a reduction in risks for the real sector, resulting in income and profit recovery [1] Group 2 - The absolute return logic for the banking sector is driven by a reassessment of systemic risks, leading to valuation recovery, alongside stable equity return characteristics that attract capital inflows into the sector [1] - It is projected that the sector will continue to experience valuation enhancement in 2026 [1]
中信证券:预计2026年中国人民银行将在总量工具上保持适度宽松取向,降准降息仍存空间
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 00:27
中信证券研报称,2026年财政政策定调为"更加积极的财政政策"。财政支出预计继续保持扩张力度,一 方面,继续向"新基建"、科技创新、 绿色低碳等新动能领域倾斜;另一方面,基本民生服务等领域的 支出也将加大,以增进民生福祉和直接刺激消费需求。同时,地方政府存量债务风险受到高度关注。在 控制债务风险的约束下,财政政策在"扩支出"与"防风险"之间求平衡。预计2026年货币政策基调延 续"适度宽松",并强调灵活运用多种工具以降低社会融资成本。预计2026年中国人民 银行将在总量工 具上保持适度宽松取向,降准降息仍存空间。 ...
中信证券:展望2026年中国宏观经济五大趋势
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 00:21
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that despite external environmental changes and internal structural adjustments, China's macro economy is expected to maintain a steady recovery in 2026, supported by policy measures. Group 1: Economic Trends - Trend 1: Domestic demand recovery is anticipated to drive overall growth [1] - Trend 2: Investment is expected to shift from total pressure to structural optimization [1] - Trend 3: Sino-US relations are likely to ease, with no significant escalation of major frictions expected in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Trend 4: The acceleration of market diversification is projected, with external demand prospects in 2026 expected to be better than in 2025 [1] - Trend 5: As the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is expected that counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments will be strengthened [1]
中信证券:胶原蛋白产业仍处红利期 推荐关注三类企业
Core Viewpoint - The technology and processes for natural collagen and recombinant collagen are continuously improving, leading to an expansion of application scenarios and an increase in the number of approved collagen products, which will enrich indications and enhance market penetration [1] Industry Summary - The number of registered certificates for natural collagen and recombinant collagen products is increasing but is still far from saturation, providing opportunities for various companies to share in the industry's growth [1] - The medical beauty market is expected to see an increase in both the number of consumers and market penetration as more collagen products are approved [1] Company Recommendations - The recombinant collagen freeze-dried fiber registration certificate is expected to be approved and launched in the first half of 2026, with recombinant collagen solutions and gels also anticipated to receive approval in 2026, potentially becoming a second growth curve for companies [1] - Companies entering the natural collagen field through acquisitions, with steady progress in the research and clinical development of related medical beauty Class III devices, are expected to gain approval in the future and become new forces in the existing medical beauty biomaterials matrix [1] - Companies with strong drug development and review experience that are simultaneously laying out natural and recombinant collagen through agency and self-research are well-positioned for growth [1]
中信证券:磷酸铁锂行业盈利有望迎来周期性的拐点
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 00:16
中信证券研报表示,铁锂行业盈利有望迎来周期性的拐点。需求端,动力领域铁锂渗透率的进一步提升 以及储能的高景气度带来需求的快速增长,我们测算2026年全球磷酸铁锂正极材料出货量有望达到525 万吨,同比+36%;供给端,我们预计2026年增长有限,整体稼动率有望进一步提升,其中高端品仍较 为紧缺。当前铁锂盈利能力处于周期底部,伴随供需结构改善有望迎来修复空间,产品高端化、出海趋 势的进一步明确有望为头部企业带来超额利润。重点推荐铁锂行业内头部企业。 ...
中信证券:政策趋于灵活,银行板块估值延续提升
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 00:14
Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is favorable for the performance of RMB-denominated equity assets [1] - The central bank will adopt more flexible policy tools in the next phase, with a focus on domestic demand targets [1] - By 2026, stable macro-financial conditions are expected to indicate a stable banking operating environment, with bank interest margins reaching a bottom and a recovery in income and profitability for the real sector [1] Group 2 - The absolute return logic for the banking sector comes from the re-evaluation of systemic risks, leading to valuation recovery [1] - The stable characteristics of equity returns are expected to drive capital inflows into the sector [1] - It is anticipated that the sector will continue to experience valuation enhancement trends in 2026 [1]
中信证券:铁锂行业盈利有望迎来周期性的拐点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 00:14
中信证券研报称,铁锂行业盈利有望迎来周期性的拐点。需求端,动力领域铁锂渗透率的进一步提升以 及储能的高景气度带来需求的快速增长,我们测算2026年全球磷酸铁锂正极材料出货量有望达到525万 吨,同比+36%;供给端,我们预计2026年增长有限,整体稼动率有望进一步提升,其中高端品仍较为 紧缺。当前铁锂盈利能力处于周期底部,伴随供需结构改善有望迎来修复空间,产品高端化、出海趋势 的进一步明确有望为头部企业带来超额利润。重点推荐铁锂行业内头部企业。 ...
中信证券:商业航天景气高企,石墨纤维迎来机遇
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 00:14
中信证券研报称,受益政策、技术和市场三维驱动,商业航天迎来景气高企。在太空算力需求拉动下, 火箭、卫星结构轻量化以及特殊应用环境对于碳纤维材料提出更高要求,石墨纤维凭借耐高温、高强高 模以及低热膨胀系数等优势,渗透率有望进一步提升。我们预计伴随着下游需求放量,在国产化驱动 下,布局石墨纤维的相关企业有望充分受益。 ...
中信证券北交所首例“保荐+直投”遇阻 广泰真空上市遭暂缓表决
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 22:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Guangtai Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. in its application for listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange, highlighting the company's unique market position and the involvement of CITIC Securities as both a sponsor and investor [2][18]. Company Overview - Guangtai Vacuum is a high-tech enterprise focused on the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of vacuum equipment, particularly in the rare earth permanent magnet industry [4]. - The company aims to raise 168 million yuan by issuing up to 17 million shares for the expansion of its vacuum melting furnace and sintering furnace production, as well as the construction of a research and product display center [5]. Listing Application Process - Guangtai Vacuum submitted its listing application on June 23, 2025, and received acceptance after a swift process, completing the entire listing guidance in just three months [5][6]. - The company became the third entity sponsored by CITIC Securities to gain the opportunity for review by the listing committee in 2025 [8]. Challenges in Listing Approval - The listing application was deferred due to concerns from the listing committee regarding the accuracy of revenue recognition and the sustainability of the company's performance [11][12]. - Guangtai Vacuum's revenue growth showed a significant increase in 2023, but signs of fatigue were evident in 2024, raising questions about the sustainability of its performance [11]. Revenue Recognition Issues - The company’s revenue recognition method, which requires installation and acceptance by customers, has led to delays in revenue confirmation, with some projects taking over 15 months for acceptance [15][16]. - The listing committee requested further clarification on contracts and revenue recognition practices to address these concerns [16]. CITIC Securities' Role - CITIC Securities is utilizing a "sponsorship + direct investment" model for the first time in the Beijing Stock Exchange, which allows them to potentially gain equity premium in addition to sponsorship fees [18][19]. - This model is seen as a way to enhance the participation of securities firms in smaller projects on the Beijing Stock Exchange, thereby supporting financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [20].