公 司 报 告 房地产 2025年08月26日 保利发展(600048.SH) 股价:8.3元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】保利发展（600048.SH）*年报点评*土 储结构优化，融资优势明显*推荐20250505 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 抢销售抢资金，投资精准资源优化 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 公司公布2025年半年报，上半年实现营业收入1168.6亿元，同比下降16.1%， 归母净利润27.1亿元，同比下降63.5%，与业绩预告基本一致。 平安观点： 半 年 报 点 评 研 究 报 告 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 346,828 | 311,666 | 266,475 | 221,174 | 194,633 | | Y ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing and Shanghai align with expectations and are moderate in intensity, which will aid in regional inventory digestion. This series of "city-specific policies" strengthens confidence in the industry's long-term recovery path [1][4] - The recovery of real estate stocks does not solely depend on the timing of policy implementations; rather, the decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments are the primary drivers of this recovery. The market has entered a new bottoming phase, where the impact of the denominator (risk-free rates) outweighs that of the numerator (real estate prices) [2] - The new policies in Shanghai, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions and adjustments to mortgage rates, are expected to stimulate demand in suburban areas, which will help reduce inventory [3] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - On August 25, Shanghai announced new housing policies, including easing purchase restrictions outside the outer ring and enhancing public housing fund support. The adjustments are expected to significantly impact the new housing market, particularly in suburban areas [3] - The report notes that the new policies are similar to those in Beijing, focusing on optimizing public housing fund policies and adjusting commercial loan rates to lower housing costs [3] Market Trends - Since Q2 of this year, the new housing market has shown signs of weakening in both volume and price, increasing the pressure for stabilization. The recent policies from Beijing and Shanghai have reinforced confidence in the industry's long-term recovery, with further policy space anticipated [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks: China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Hold) [5]

Group 1: Shanghai Housing Policy Adjustment - Shanghai has announced adjustments to its housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible residents to buy an unlimited number of homes outside the outer ring road [1] - Eligible residents include local households and non-local households who have paid social insurance or individual income tax in Shanghai for at least one year [1] - Single adults will be subject to the same housing purchase restrictions as families [1] Group 2: Poly Developments Half-Year Performance - Poly Developments reported a revenue of approximately 116.857 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.08% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.711 billion yuan, down 63.47% compared to the previous year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 16.017 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Shoukai Co. Half-Year Performance - Shoukai Co. achieved a revenue of approximately 18.039 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 105.19% [3] - The company reported a net loss of 1.839 billion yuan [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 7.088 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Huaxia Happiness Half-Year Performance - Huaxia Happiness reported a revenue of approximately 2.903 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 50.9% [4] - The net loss for the period was 6.827 billion yuan [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities showed a loss of 3.217 billion yuan [4] Group 5: Lianfa Co. Half-Year Performance - Lianfa Co. achieved a revenue of approximately 2.027 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.93% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 184 million yuan, an increase of 274.12% compared to the previous year [5] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 573 million yuan, up 99.31% [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates a recovery signal in the real estate market, with private enterprises strategically acquiring high-premium land parcels, reflecting a restoration of confidence in the sector [4][8][30] - The supply of residential land in first, second, and third-tier cities has shown a mixed trend, with third-tier cities experiencing an increase in both quantity and price, while first and second-tier cities face declines [5][19][30] Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the top 50 real estate companies added a total of 3,398.59 million square meters of land, marking an 11.45% year-on-year increase [8][11] - Major players like China Overseas Land & Investment, Poly Developments, and Greentown China led in land acquisition, with respective land reserves of 309.37 million square meters, 241.97 million square meters, and 206.03 million square meters [11][30] - The average land acquisition price in July was 5,471.24 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 34% month-on-month decline but an 18.02% year-on-year increase [24][27] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The total number of residential land supply in first, second, and third-tier cities was 437 plots, with a total planned construction area of 2,612.05 million square meters, showing a 4.22% month-on-month decline and a 29.61% year-on-year decline [5][16] - The starting floor price for land was 3,931 yuan per square meter, down 15.07% month-on-month [5][19] - Third-tier cities saw a 21.28% increase in the number of plots and a 22.03% increase in planned construction area, with a 15.75% rise in starting floor prices, indicating a shift towards higher-quality land [5][19][30] Group 3: Policy and Financial Support - The issuance of special bonds by local governments reached a record high in July, with 616.94 billion yuan issued, aimed at enhancing liquidity for local governments and enterprises [22][23] - Policies have been implemented to support land storage and optimize resource allocation, with 1,105 special bond storage projects announced, amounting to approximately 10,263.35 billion yuan [22][23] - The focus on urban renewal has intensified, with central enterprises encouraged to engage in city development and improvement projects, reflecting a shift towards quality enhancement in urban planning [40][41][43]

Core Insights - The event "Discussion on Bai'e Lake · Good House Tour" was successfully held, focusing on high-quality residential projects in the Bai'e Lake area and exploring the construction and development direction of "good houses" [1][4][22] - The research team included representatives from government departments, media, and industry experts, who visited three benchmark projects in the Bai'e Lake core area: Chenghui Xindu · Rongfu, New World Tianfu, and Poly Zhujiang Tianyue [2][4] Group 1: Market Trends - From January to July this year, real estate investment in the Liwan District increased by 11.8% year-on-year, with the sales area of commercial housing growing by 10% [5] - In the first half of 2025, the Liwan District sold 2,548 residential units, leading the central four districts, with an inventory of only 5,432 units and a turnover cycle of 11.6 months [5][9] - The local government emphasizes that building good houses is a crucial measure to meet demand and achieve dynamic supply-demand balance [5] Group 2: Project Highlights - Chenghui Xindu · Rongfu is located in the Bai'e Lake CBD, featuring intelligent four-bedroom apartments with river views and extensive commercial facilities, including schools and a hotel [12][14] - New World Tianfu is recognized as a benchmark project, embodying five key dimensions of a "good house": robust development philosophy, good amenities, design, service, and delivery capability [17][18] - Poly Zhujiang Tianyue offers a unique riverside living experience with unobstructed river views and a focus on understanding user needs through extensive customer interviews [19][20] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Bai'e Lake area is expected to continue evolving, with significant infrastructure and commercial projects contributing to its development, marking a transition from "village" to "bay" [22][23] - The Guangzhou Real Estate Association aims to build platforms for member companies to enhance product strength and navigate through market cycles [22]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant decline in the financial performance of Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, with a notable drop in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [2][5][14]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 11.69 billion RMB, a decrease of 16.08% compared to 13.92 billion RMB in the same period last year [2][22]. - The total profit amounted to about 990.88 million RMB, down 29.70% from 1.41 billion RMB year-on-year [2][22]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 271.08 million RMB, representing a 63.47% decline from 741.99 million RMB in the previous year [2][22]. - The basic earnings per share decreased to 0.23 RMB, down 63.39% from 0.62 RMB [2][22]. Market Conditions - The overall real estate market in China faced significant pressure, with new residential sales dropping by 5.5% year-on-year, and sales area declining by 3.5% [3][5]. - The top 100 real estate companies saw a sales scale decrease of 11.8% in the first half of the year [5]. - Core cities showed relative resilience, with new residential sales in 30 key cities remaining stable at approximately 1.5 trillion RMB [3]. Operational Strategies - The company implemented strategies to optimize resource allocation and enhance quality while controlling costs, achieving a sales recovery of 144.8 billion RMB with a recovery rate of 100% [6][7]. - The company focused on improving cash flow management, resulting in a net cash inflow from operating activities of 16.02 billion RMB [7][19]. - The company successfully issued a cash-type convertible bond worth 8.5 billion RMB, indicating innovative financing strategies [8]. Industry Trends - The real estate sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing product quality and customer experience [12][20]. - The market is characterized by a significant inventory of unsold properties, with a total of 770 million square meters of unsold residential space as of June 2025 [3][5]. - The company is adapting to market changes by enhancing its product offerings and service quality, aiming to meet evolving customer demands [12][20].

证券代码：600048 证券简称：保利发展 公告编号：2025-073 第七届董事会第十一次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第七届董事会第十一 次会议于 2025 年 8 月 22 日以通讯表决方式召开，会议召集人为公司董事长刘平 先生，会议应参加表决董事九名，实际参加表决董事九名。会议的召集和召开符 合《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》及《公司章程》的有关 规定，会议审议通过了以下议案： 一、董事会以 9 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权通过《关于 2025 年半年度报 告及摘要的议案》。 具体内容详见公司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《2025 年半年度报告》及《2025 年半年度报告摘要》。 本议案在提交本次董事会审议前，已经公司董事会审计委员会 2025 年第四 次会议审议通过。 二、董事会以 9 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权通过《关于 2025 年半年度募 集资金存放与实际使用情况专项报告的议案》。 ...

具体内容详见公司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《2025 年半年度报告》及《2025 年半年度报告摘要》。 二、监事会以 3 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权审议通过了《关于 2025 年半 年度募集资金存放与实际使用情况专项报告的议案》。 具体内容详见公司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《保利 发展控股集团股份有限公司关于 2025 年半年度募集资金存放与实际使用情况的 专项报告》（公告编号 2025-075）。 证券代码：600048 证券简称：保利发展 公告编号：2025-074 第七届监事会第十三次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第七届监事会第十三 次会议于 2025 年 8 月 22 日以通讯表决方式召开，会议召集人为公司监事会主席 孔峻峰先生，会议应参加表决监事三名，实际参加表决监事三名。会议的召集和 召开符合《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》及《公司章程》 的有关规定，会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Poly Development Holdings Group Co., Ltd. is conducting a continuous risk assessment of its related transactions with Poly Finance Co., Ltd., ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements and maintaining effective internal controls [1][11]. Basic Information - Poly Finance Co., Ltd. was established on March 11, 2008, and is a non-bank financial institution under China Poly Group, aimed at enhancing fund management and efficiency for group members [1]. - The company is registered with the Beijing Market Supervision Administration and holds a financial business license approved by the National Financial Supervision Administration [1]. Internal Control Overview - Poly Finance has established a governance structure that complies with state-owned and financial regulatory requirements, enhancing decision-making efficiency through various committees [2]. - The company has nine functional departments and conducts annual reviews of its regulations to ensure they remain relevant and effective [2]. Risk Management - A comprehensive risk management system is in place, with committees overseeing compliance and risk management activities [3]. - The company conducts annual risk preference statements to guide its business operations and implements a three-tier review mechanism for compliance [3]. Important Control Activities - Poly Finance has developed management measures for fund settlement and credit business, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [4][5]. - The company employs advanced technology for secure transaction processing and has established a robust internal control system for fund safety [4][6]. Financial Data - As of June 30, 2025, total assets amounted to approximately 9.73 billion, with total equity at about 641.56 million [9]. - The company reported total revenue of approximately 200.14 million and a net profit of around 61.61 million for the audited period [9]. - The capital adequacy ratio stands at 14.06%, exceeding the regulatory minimum of 10.5% [10]. Risk Assessment Opinion - The board of directors believes that Poly Finance operates within legal frameworks and has established effective internal controls to manage risks [11]. - The company’s deposit and loan activities with Poly Finance are deemed manageable and do not pose significant operational risks [11].

证券代码：600048 证券简称：保利发展 公告编号：2025-077 关于召开 2025 年半年度网上业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 会议召开时间：2025 年 9 月 2 日（星期二）14:00-15:00 ? 会议网址：上证路演中心（网址：http://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） ? 会议方式：上证路演中心网络互动 ? 投资者可于 2025 年 8 月 26 日(星期二)至 9 月 1 日(星期一)16:00 前登 录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 stock@polycn.com 进行提问。公司将会在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进 行回答。 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于2025年8月26日 披露《2025年半年度报告》，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司2025年半 年度经营成果、财务状况等情况，公司计划于2025年9月2日14:00-15:00通过网 络互动方式召开2025年半年度网上业绩说明 ...