智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，3月，燃料电池系统装机量165.44MW，同比上升177.8%； 2025年1~3月燃料电池系统累计装机量206.28MW，同比增长102%，行业数据季节性波动。由于统计口 径差异，中汽协公布的3月燃料电池汽车产销分别为365/377辆，同比增长36.2%/68.3%。2025Q1上险量 为1143辆，同比增长42.9%。3月均为高功率，以重卡为主，占比97.3%。2025年是氢能中长期规划的结 算时点，氢能及燃料电池行业将进入放量冲刺期，燃料电池汽车及绿氢项目落地将加速，氢能和燃料电 池制造是目前的两条主线。 国金证券主要观点如下： 25Q1装机势头上扬 3月，燃料电池系统装机量165.44MW，同比上升177.8%；2025年1~3月燃料电池系统累计装机量 206.28MW，同比增长102%，行业数据季节性波动。3月均为高功率，以重卡为主，占比97.3%。 3月上险量728辆，Q1淡季不淡 2025年3月上险量为728辆，同比增长87.2%。由于统计口径差异，中汽协公布的3月燃料电池汽车产销 分别为365/377辆，同比增长36.2%/68.3%。2025Q1上险量 ...

利安隆 国金证券股份有限公司杨翼荥,陈屹,王明辉近期对利安隆（300596）进行研究并发布了研究报告《主营业 务稳定，布局新材料和生命科学》，给予利安隆买入评级。 我们预测2025-2027年公司收入分别为62.22、70.10、81.34亿元，归母净利润分别为4.82、5.30、6.12亿 元，对应EPS分别为2.098、2.309、2.664元/股，对应的PE分别为13.21X、12.00X、10.40X，维持"买入"评 级。 风险提示 产能建设不及预期；抗老化剂需求不及预期；润滑油添加剂需求不及预期；产品竞争格局恶化。 最新盈利预测明细如下： 事件 4月21号，公司发布2024年年报，公司2024年实现营业收入56.87亿元，同比+7.74%，实现归母净利润4.26 亿元，同比+17.61%。 分析 2024年年度，公司销售费用1.65亿元，同比+20.54%。管理费用2.33亿元，同比+25.41%。财务费用0.26亿 元，同比-32.40%，主要系本期利息收入增加所致。研发费用2.47亿元，同比+5.89%。主营业务稳中有 增。2024年年度，公司抗氧化剂业务实现营业收入17.30亿元(同比+7.9 ...

另外，随着时间推进到4月下旬，按照惯例，4月底将召开更聚焦于经济工作相关的政治局会议，为二季 度的经济工作确定政策方向。在这样的时间节点，市场进入博弈后续超预期政策的时间窗口。从国常会 的通稿来看，虽然强调稳外贸，但由于外贸企业受到关税冲击，预估增量政策的效果只能起到对冲企业 盈利下滑的作用；而至于有增量利好的板块，该行判断主要仍是食品饮料和消费者服务这类促消费和扩 内需的板块。除此以外，前期持续强化的降准降息预期，也会推升金融地产板块的企稳回升。所以对于 未来一周，战术仓位建议关注于消费者服务等内需板块以及金融地产等潜在降息降准利好的板块。 本周央行通过7天逆回购投放了5681亿元，到期5014亿元，整体通过公开市场操作净投放667亿元。短端 1周SHIBOR和DR007，分别报1.654%和1.7116%，较上周分别上升3.5 BP和1.02 BP。1个月SHIBOR和3 个月SHIBOR分别报1.763%和1.761%，较上周分别下降2.4 BP和2.5 BP。 结合经济面和流动性来看，对于未来一周，建议核心仓位维持在大盘价值，而战术性仓位可以关注消费 者服务以及金融地产板块。 智通财经APP获悉，国金 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the recent evaluation results of securities companies by the Beijing Stock Exchange and the National Equities Exchange and Quotations reflect the competitive landscape and performance of various brokerages in the market, highlighting the strong performance of leading firms and the strategic positioning of smaller firms [1][2][4] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, a total of 103 securities firms participated in the evaluation, with 102 firms scoring above 100 points. The top three firms were CITIC Securities with 152.22 points, Huatai Securities with 138.42 points, and Kaiyuan Securities with 128.03 points [2][3] - The evaluation system includes a professional quality score and compliance quality deductions, with a base score of 100 points, leading to significant changes in rankings compared to the previous year [2][3] - The top three firms in professional quality scores were CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Kaiyuan Securities, with scores of 52.22, 38.42, and 30.31 respectively [3] Group 3 - Smaller securities firms are increasingly focusing on niche markets, particularly in the rapidly developing Beijing Stock Exchange and the New Third Board, to create differentiated competitive advantages [4][5] - Several smaller firms, such as Shichuang Securities and Guoyuan Securities, are actively developing their investment banking capabilities, targeting specialized clients and enhancing their service offerings [4][6] - The rapid growth of the Beijing Stock Exchange presents opportunities for smaller firms to establish a strong presence in specific business segments, avoiding direct competition with larger firms [5][6]

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates macroeconomic signals to determine equity allocation recommendations. It incorporates economic growth and monetary liquidity signals to generate timing signals for equity investments[4][27]. **Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns weights to two dimensions: economic growth and monetary liquidity. 2. Signal strength is calculated for each dimension. For April, the economic growth signal strength was 0%, while the monetary liquidity signal strength was 50%[27]. 3. Based on these signals, the recommended equity allocation for April was 25%[27]. **Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to macro timing, but its performance is subject to changes in macroeconomic conditions[27]. - **Model Name**: Micro-Cap Timing and Rotation Model **Construction Idea**: This model uses indicators related to market sentiment and fundamentals to monitor micro-cap stock performance and rotation opportunities[31]. **Construction Process**: 1. **Rotation Signal**: The model tracks the relative net value of the Micro-Cap Index and the "Mao Index" (a benchmark index). A signal was triggered on October 14, 2024, when the Micro-Cap Index crossed above its annual moving average[31]. 2. **Risk Warning Indicators**: - **Volatility Congestion**: This indicator reflects market sentiment. On October 15, 2024, the indicator fell below its threshold, deactivating the risk warning[31]. - **10-Year Treasury Yield YoY**: This fundamental indicator remained at -20.45%, below the risk control threshold of 0.3[31]. **Evaluation**: The model effectively combines sentiment and fundamental indicators to guide micro-cap stock investments[31]. Model Backtesting Results - **Macro Timing Strategy**: - Year-to-date return: 1.06% - Benchmark (Wind All A Index) return: 1.90%[27] - **Micro-Cap Timing and Rotation Model**: - Volatility Congestion YoY: -50.09% - 10-Year Treasury Yield YoY: -28.69%[31][32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Volume-Price Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors capture market dynamics by analyzing trading volume and price volatility[5]. **Construction Process**: - **Low Trading Volume**: Measures stocks with lower trading activity. - **Low Volatility**: Identifies stocks with stable price movements[5]. **Evaluation**: These factors performed well in a low-risk appetite environment, benefiting from market stability[5]. - **Factor Name**: Consensus Expectation Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor reflects market expectations for stocks with strong earnings forecasts[5]. **Construction Process**: - Derived from analysts' earnings forecasts and target prices. - Tracks changes in consensus expectations over time[5]. **Evaluation**: The factor performed well due to investors' preference for certainty in volatile markets[5]. - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Selection Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors predict convertible bond performance based on their relationship with underlying stocks and valuation metrics[46]. **Construction Process**: - **Equity Factors**: Derived from the underlying stock's consensus expectations, growth, financial quality, and valuation. - **Valuation Factor**: Based on the premium rate between the convertible bond's parity and floor price[46]. **Evaluation**: The factors achieved positive returns, indicating their effectiveness in identifying outperforming convertible bonds[46]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Volume-Price Factors**: - Low Trading Volume: Positive performance in a low-risk appetite environment[5]. - Low Volatility: Positive performance in stable market conditions[5]. - **Consensus Expectation Factor**: - Positive performance due to strong earnings forecast alignment[5]. - **Convertible Bond Selection Factors**: - Positive multi-long-short returns for equity consensus expectation, equity valuation, and convertible bond valuation factors[46].

今天分享的是：国金证券：保险：低利率下保险资金入市必要性提升，高股息仍是重要配置方向 报告共计：25页 《国金证券：保险：低利率下保险资金入市必要性提升，高股息仍是重要配置方向》聚焦保险资金入市及配置问题，深入剖析 现状、趋势、规模测算等内容。 1. 险资资产配置现状：2024年保险资金运用余额增长显著，人身险公司、财产险公司均有增长，人身险占比达90.1%。资产配置 上，债券增配，股票占比提升，基金和长股投占比降低。得益于利率下行和权益市场好转，投资收益率大幅提升，上市公司配 置与行业趋势相符。 2. 险资权益配置趋势：长期来看，上市保险公司权益配置比例呈上升趋势。2024年，险资积极增配高股息，从股票、基金、长 期股权投资三方面来看：股票配置比例上升，高股息风格明显；基金配置比例有所下降，但部分公司有所提升，ETF成为重要 配置方向；长期股权投资受监管和偿二代二期影响，配置比例下降，不过新准则下或再受关注。 3. 入市规模测算 - 入市原因：资产端，长端利率低位、资产荒导致再配置压力大，需提升高股息股票配置提升收益率；负债端，产品预定利率下 调，分红险成主推产品，客户风险偏好高，险资有增配权益获取超额收益 ...

智通财经4月17日电，利弗莫尔证券显示，西藏智汇矿业股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书，联席 保荐人为国金证券（香港）有限公司、迈时资本。 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 国金证券股份有限公司（以下简称"保荐人"或"国金证券"）作为广东蒙泰高新纤维股份有限公司向不特 定对象发行可转换公司债券并在创业板上市的保荐人，根据《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法（2023年 修订）》《深圳证券交易所创业板股票上市规则（2024年修订）》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管 指引第 13 号——保荐业务》等规定，国金证券的持续督导期持续至2024年12月31日，截至本报告书出 具日，持续督导期已满，现根据有关法律法规和规范性文件的要求，出具本持续督导保荐总结报告书。 3、本保荐人及保荐代表人自愿接受中国证监会按照《证券发行上市保荐业务管理办法》的有关规定采 取的监管措施。 保荐人依照法律、行政法规和中国证监会及深圳证券交易所的有关规定，恪守业务规范和行业规范，诚 实守信、勤勉尽责，对蒙泰高新及其主要股东进行尽职调查，组织编制申请文件并出具推荐文件；提交 推荐文件后，主动配合深圳证券交易所、中国证监会的审核，组织蒙泰高新及中介机构对深圳证券交易 所、中国证监会的意见进行反馈答复，并与深圳证券交易所、中国证监会进行专业沟通；取得发行批复 文件后，按照深 ...

| 序号 | 项目名称 | 项目投资额 | 拟投入募集资金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 肯特催化材料股份有限公司年产 8860 吨功能性催化新材料项目 | 49,887.86 | 49.887.86 | | | 合计 | 49,887.86 | 49.887.86 | 肯特催化公开发行新股的发行费用合计7,179.83万元(不含增值税)，其中保荐承销费3,840.00万元。 肯特催化本次在上交所主板发行22,600,000股，全部为新股，不安排老股转让，发行价格为15.00元/股。公司本次保荐机构 为国金证券股份有限公司，保荐代表人聂敏、牛建军。 肯特催化本次发行募集资金总额33,900.00万元，扣除发行费用后募集资金净额为26,720.17万元，公司最终募集资金净额比 原计划少23,167.69万元。肯特催化2025年4月11日披露的招股书显示，公司拟募集资金49,887.86万元，用于肯特催化材料股 份有限公司年产8860吨功能性催化新材料项目。 中国经济网北京4月16日讯今日，肯特催化（603120）材料股份有限公司(股票简称：肯特催化，股票代码：603120.SH ...

国金证券指出，内需消费改善核心在提升居民可支配收入，路径包括等企业"盈利底"、财政发力释放居 民储蓄、加大补贴力度。构建消费投资框架，挖掘"真消费资产"。方向一围绕新消费，选"政策支持+产 业景气加速+透支久期适度"行业，如银发经济等；方向二围绕政策布局传统消费，选"增长型红利"行 业，如母婴消费等，各方向均有首选和次选行业。 ...