Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded above 700 RMB, with a current price of 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB/ton (3.53%) [3][4] - The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [4] - The report predicts that the current rebound in coal prices is at a turning point, with potential further increases expected as the market stabilizes [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices, currently above the second target price of around 700 RMB [4][13] - Future expectations indicate that thermal coal prices could reach a third target price of approximately 750 RMB, with a potential peak at around 860 RMB [4][13] Market Performance - The coal index increased by 3.51% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.96 percentage points [8][25] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.59, and the PB ratio is 1.28, ranking low among all A-share industries [25][31] Coal Price Indicators - As of September 19, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB [20] - The price of coking coal at the Jingtang port has risen to 1670 RMB/ton, reflecting a significant increase from earlier months [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for investment in coal stocks, focusing on both cyclical recovery and stable dividends, with specific stocks recommended for investment [5][14] - Key stocks identified for investment include: - Cyclical logic: Jinko Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings, Electric Power Investment Energy - Growth logic: Xinjie Energy, Guanghui Energy [5][14][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][13] - The report highlights that coal prices have shown signs of stabilization, and there is an expectation for price increases due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [5][13] - The report emphasizes the continued investment logic of coal capacity shortages, with a short-term balance and a long-term gap in supply [13][14] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of September 19, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 CNY/ton, an increase of 21 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1610 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][33] - International thermal coal prices have also seen fluctuations, with Newcastle thermal coal at 69.6 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.4 USD/ton [4][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.7%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [4][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 4.10 thousand tons/day (+1.22%) [5][13] - The report notes that the supply side is still constrained by policies, and the demand is expected to rise as winter heating needs begin [5][13] Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.59%, outperforming the broader market [16] - The report identifies key companies to focus on, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their stable operations and strong performance [14][16]

公司报告 | 公司点评 兖矿能源（600188） 证券研究报告 盈利有望受量价双重驱动，H 股高股息属性凸显 煤炭供应频现扰动，煤价迎来筑底反弹 中央财经委员会第六次会议提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导 企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出等"后，国内煤炭行业供给端 频现扰动，叠加迎峰度夏期间电煤需求尚可、铁水日均产量维持较高水平 等需求支撑，自 5 月以来环渤海港库存量持续下降，截至 2025 年 9 月 16 日，环渤海港库存量 2278.5 万吨，低于 2024 年同期的 2301 万吨水平。"查 超产"政策背景下，我们认为，国内煤炭产量或难以恢复至上半年水平， 煤炭供需形势亦或难以回到此前宽松状态，煤价有望筑底反弹。 煤炭主业高成长+高现货占比销售，盈利有望受量价双重驱动 近年来公司以"内涵提升+外延扩张"双轮驱动策略释放产能、拓展资源, 下 半年随着陕蒙、新疆及澳洲矿井产能进一步释放、新收购西北矿业并表贡 献增量，2025 年全年公司商品煤产量预计达到 1.8 亿吨-1.9 亿吨，同比增 加 4000 万吨以上。目前公司在产、在建及规划矿井合计产能已达 3.2 亿吨 /年，规划"2030 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The coal supply in China is experiencing disturbances, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices as demand remains supported during peak summer and high iron and steel production levels [1] - As of September 16, 2025, the inventory at the Bohai Rim ports is 22.785 million tons, lower than the 23.01 million tons recorded in the same period of 2024 [1] - The "overproduction check" policy suggests that domestic coal production may not return to the levels seen in the first half of the year, indicating a tighter supply-demand balance [1] Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - The company is expected to achieve a coal production volume of 180-190 million tons in 2025, an increase of over 40 million tons year-on-year, driven by capacity releases from new mines and acquisitions [2] - The total capacity of the company's operational, under-construction, and planned mines has reached 320 million tons per year, with a goal of achieving 300 million tons of raw coal by 2030 [2] - The company plans to reduce its coal sales cost by 3%-5% year-on-year in 2025, with the cost of self-produced coal in the first half of 2025 being 328 RMB per ton, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company commits to distributing cash dividends amounting to approximately 60% of its net profit after statutory reserves for the years 2023-2025, with a minimum cash dividend of 0.5 RMB per share [3] - For the first half of 2025, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.18 RMB per share and intends to repurchase shares worth 0.5-1 billion RMB for A shares and 1.5-4 billion RMB for H shares [3] - The H shares of the company have a higher dividend yield compared to peers, with a projected yield of 9.4% in 2024, and a current yield of 5.3% based on the minimum dividend commitment [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company's net profit is projected to be 8.94 billion RMB, 9.65 billion RMB, and 10.69 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -38%, +7.9%, and +10.8% respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 0.89 RMB, 0.96 RMB, and 1.07 RMB, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.2, 14.1, and 12.7 [4] - The company's performance is anticipated to benefit from a rebound in coal prices and gradual release of coal production capacity [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed signs of support amidst fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.30% at 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index also experienced slight declines [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.35 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 817.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The innovation sector, particularly AI hardware and humanoid robots, has seen a clear decline, with leading stocks like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Jinfa Technology hitting their daily limit down [3] - Defensive sectors, including tourism and hotels, experienced a rally, with stocks like Yunnan Tourism and Guilin Tourism reaching their daily limit up [5] Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released measures to expand service consumption, which includes 19 initiatives aimed at boosting the tourism sector [5] - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to further increase tourism demand, as evidenced by the rapid sell-out of train tickets for popular routes [5] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will ease pressure on the RMB exchange rate and improve domestic liquidity, potentially providing upward momentum for the A-share market [6] - The market is currently in the "valuation-driven" phase, with expectations of a shift to a "fundamentals-driven" phase as global economic dynamics evolve [6][7]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector increased by 2.02% on September 19, with Huayang Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] - Notable performers in the coal mining sector included: - Biaozhan Service (600348) with a closing price of 7.60, up 7.80% - Lu'an Huaneng (6691099) at 15.00, up 5.63% - Jinko Coal Industry (601001) at 14.30, up 5.54% [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector experienced a net outflow of 355 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 320 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flows included: - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) with a net inflow of 127 million yuan from institutional investors - Biaozhan Co. (600348) with a net inflow of 106 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - The overall trading volume for the coal mining sector was substantial, with various companies reporting significant transaction amounts [2][3]

Group 1 - Huayang Co. reached the daily limit increase in stock price [1] - Lu'an Environmental Energy rose over 5% [1] - Jin控 Coal Industry, Huaibei Mining, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Coal Energy also experienced stock price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks experienced a midday surge, with notable increases in share prices for major companies such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining, driven by recent production data and market sentiment [1] Industry Summary - In August, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 390 million tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, although the decrease narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to July [1] - From January to August, the total output of industrial raw coal reached 3.17 billion tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] - Looking ahead to 2025, without considering the impact of "anti-involution" on production, coal production is expected to continue growing, potentially reaching around 3.88 billion tons, with a further slowdown in growth rate to approximately 1.4% [1] Company Summary - Guosen Securities noted that the coal sector has seen significant declines this year, with institutional holdings remaining low and a healthy chip structure, indicating that trading is not overcrowded [1] - The report from Zhongtai Securities highlighted that the seasonal decline in coal prices appears to have stabilized, and the demand for non-electric coal during peak winter months is expected to drive prices higher [1] - Despite short-term pressures from disappointing mid-year performance and the influence of technology sector trends, the coal sector presents new investment opportunities, suggesting a proactive approach to coal investments [1]

Group 1 - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited's stock price increased by 2.06% to 13.35 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 134 billion CNY as of September 19 [1] - The company reported a net inflow of 10.2 million CNY from major funds, with significant buying and selling activities noted [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 0.74%, but it has shown a positive trend in the last five days (up 3.01%) and the last 60 days (up 11.34%) [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, the number of shareholders increased to 147,800, while the average circulating shares per person remained at zero [2] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 59.35 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 17.93%, and a net profit of 4.65 billion CNY, down 38.53% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, Yanzhou Coal has distributed a total of 86.85 billion CNY in dividends, with 42.38 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable increases in holdings from several ETFs [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.15% on September 18, with only three sectors rising: electronics (0.93%), communications (0.19%), and social services (0.03%) [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were non-ferrous metals (-3.56%) and comprehensive industries (-2.85%), while the coal industry dropped by 1.73% [1] Capital Flow - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 108.407 billion yuan, with only two sectors experiencing net inflows: coal (2.35 million yuan) and social services (3.2239 million yuan) [1] - The non-bank financial sector had the largest net outflow, totaling 18.970 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals with a net outflow of 12.748 billion yuan [1] Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry saw a decline of 1.73%, with 37 stocks in the sector; only 2 stocks rose, and 1 stock hit the daily limit [2] - The top net inflow stock in the coal sector was Yongtai Energy, with a net inflow of 856 million yuan, followed by Meijin Energy (45.907 million yuan) and Dayou Energy (6.063 million yuan) [2] - Six stocks in the coal sector experienced net outflows exceeding 30 million yuan, with the largest outflows from Yanzhou Coal (1.11 billion yuan), Lu'an Environmental Energy (1.06 billion yuan), and Shanxi Coking Coal (925.689 million yuan) [2] Coal Stock Flow Rankings - The top three stocks by net capital flow in the coal sector were: - Yongtai Energy: +10.32% with a turnover rate of 9.83% and a net inflow of 856.356 million yuan [3] - Meijin Energy: +0.62% with a turnover rate of 3.70% and a net inflow of 45.907 million yuan [3] - Dayou Energy: -2.36% with a turnover rate of 0.78% and a net inflow of 6.063 million yuan [3] Additional Coal Stock Performance - Several coal stocks experienced significant net outflows, including: - Yanzhou Coal: -3.96% with a net outflow of 1.1145 billion yuan [4] - Lu'an Environmental Energy: -2.94% with a net outflow of 1.0617 billion yuan [4] - Shanxi Coking Coal: -3.47% with a net outflow of 925.689 million yuan [4]