Investment Strategy - The oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, global capital expenditure in the oil and gas upstream sector has significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to $351 billion in 2021. This trend is expected to continue as major energy companies face pressure to decarbonize and shift focus towards energy transition and renewable projects [9][25][27] - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, with new well costs closely aligned with current oil prices, limiting profit margins. The growth rate of US oil production is anticipated to slow down, with evidence emerging from the first half of 2025 [9][25][27] Oil Market - Brent crude oil spot price is currently at $63.54 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63%, while WTI crude oil is at $59.43 per barrel, down 0.43% [10][28] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is contributing to a volatile oil price environment. The expectation of a breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations has led to fluctuations in oil prices [10][28] Coal Market - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 820 RMB per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.35%. However, the market is experiencing a stalemate as downstream demand remains cautious towards high prices [11][12] - The total inventory at nine ports in the Bohai Rim is reported at 23.93 million tons, up 6.74% week-on-week, while southern ports report a decrease of 1.48% to 603.8 million tons [11][12] Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices are experiencing a high-level consolidation, with the price of coking coal at the Jingtang port reported at 1,780 RMB per ton, down 4.30% week-on-week. The price of coking coal is less regulated compared to thermal coal, allowing producers to benefit from price increases [13][14] - The average daily iron output from 247 steel mills is reported at 2.3621 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.30% week-on-week, indicating a weak demand environment for steel products [13][14] Natural Gas Market - Russian LNG is entering the Chinese market at prices 20-30% lower than market rates, despite US pressure on Japan and Europe to halt imports of Russian LNG. This influx is contributing to a stable supply environment [14][15] - The average price of natural gas in the US is reported at $4.44 per million British thermal units, down 1.4% week-on-week, while European gas prices are on the rise [14][15] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at ensuring energy security. The capital expenditure of major oil companies is projected to remain high, supporting the oilfield services industry's outlook [16][17] - The global active rig count is reported at 1,800, with a slight decrease in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, while the US shows a week-on-week increase of 5 rigs [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points, with a weekly drop of 5.67% as of November 21, 2025 [2] - Short-term coal consumption is low, leading to an increase in social inventory, but it remains below last year's levels. There is a need to ensure supply while releasing production safely [5][29] - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand in the fourth quarter, with coal prices expected to rise steadily, targeting 850 CNY/ton [5][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises were 7.53 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [2] - The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.61 million tons, up 1.3% week-on-week but down 19% year-on-year [2][6] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was stable at 698 CNY/ton, while the imported thermal coal price index was 944 CNY/ton, also unchanged [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports showed a decline, with the main coking coal price at 1,790 CNY/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [5][29] - Focus on coking coal companies such as Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as coking companies with improved profits like Jinneng Technology and others [5][29]

Core Insights - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has shown a slight increase of 0.03% as of November 24, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Bomeike (603727) up 5.58% and China Merchants Energy (601872) up 4.68% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF (159697) increased by 0.26%, with the latest price at 1.14 yuan [1] - The index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to Huatai Securities, the demand from oil-producing countries remains focused on value rather than volume, suggesting that OPEC+ may sacrifice prices in the short term to gain market share [1] - The Brent crude oil price is expected to be supported around $60 per barrel due to pressures for rebalancing and the impact of North American shale oil costs, particularly before the acceleration of global energy transition and increased supply from South America [1] - High-dividend energy leading companies with the ability to increase production and reduce costs, as well as growth in natural gas business, may present investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Index Composition - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index include China National Petroleum (601857), China Petroleum & Chemical (600028), and China National Offshore Oil (600938), collectively accounting for 65.09% of the index [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal stocks on dips [12][13] - The report highlights a tight supply situation, with coal prices stabilizing at a new platform, and emphasizes the high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yield of quality coal companies [12][13] - The report suggests that the coal sector is undervalued and has potential for valuation enhancement, with a focus on high dividend yields and cyclical elasticity [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for thermal coal from Shanxi at the pit head is 780 RMB/ton, up by 15 RMB/ton week-on-week [28] - International thermal coal prices have seen slight increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 86.5 USD/ton, up by 1.5 USD/ton [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [46] - Daily coal consumption in 17 inland provinces has increased by 14.7 thousand tons/day, a rise of 4.37% week-on-week [12] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption in 8 coastal provinces has also risen by 7.5 thousand tons/day, up by 4.18% week-on-week [12] Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 25.5 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 89.1 thousand tons [12] - The report indicates a decrease in available days of coal supply in both coastal and inland regions [12] Company Performance - The report emphasizes the strong performance of companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to maintain stable operations and robust earnings [13] - It also highlights companies with higher elasticity such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and others, suggesting they are worth monitoring [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a stable and slightly strong price trend due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [7][75] - The overall supply and demand for coal remain balanced, with port coal prices holding steady [14][73] - The report highlights the resilience of leading coal companies, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability characteristics [7][75] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 21, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 834 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 0.14 percentage points to 89.93% as of November 19, indicating stable supply [21][73] - Electricity consumption in October reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, driven by low base effects and seasonal heating demand [14][73] 2. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port decreased to 1780 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week [39][40] - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.07 percentage points to 84.3% during the week of November 12-19, indicating a slight recovery in supply [39][74] - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port remains high, with a seven-day average of 1,339 vehicles [39][74] 3. Coke - The report notes that coking enterprises have completed four rounds of price increases, improving profit margins [52][75] - The production capacity utilization of coking enterprises increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 74.21% [52][75] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to approximately 19 CNY/ton, reflecting improved profitability in the sector [56] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with the small block price at 930 CNY/ton as of November 21 [68][75] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, all of which are rated as "Buy" [9][75] - The report emphasizes the strong financial health and growth potential of leading coal companies, suggesting a favorable investment environment [7][75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal prices are stable, with the spot price for thermal coal at 834 RMB/ton as of November 21, 2025, showing no change from the previous week [1] - Supply side: The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 2.0463 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons or 3.50% from the previous week [1] - Demand side: The average daily outflow from the same ports is 1.78 million tons, a decrease of 94,400 tons or 5.04% from the previous week, indicating limited demand release [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased to 25.933 million tons, up by 1.64 million tons or 6.74% from the previous week [1] - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the heating season in northern regions and increasing electricity consumption in southern regions [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,834.89 points, down 3.45% from the previous week, while the coal sector index fell by 7.12% [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector was 82.296 billion RMB, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with specific prices reported as follows: - Datong South Suburb 5500 kcal thermal coal at 700 RMB/ton, up 15 RMB/ton [16] - Inner Mongolia Chifeng 4000 kcal thermal coal at 430 RMB/ton, unchanged [16] - Yanzhou 6000 kcal thermal coal at 1,130 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remains stable at 698 RMB/ton [18] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports increased, while the outflow decreased, indicating a buildup in inventory [26][30] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 123, down 10% from the previous week [30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes fell to 47.27 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.25% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets [35]

Core Viewpoint - The oil ETF (561360) opened down by 1.17% at 1.185 yuan, reflecting a mixed performance among its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The oil ETF (561360) has a performance benchmark of the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return rate [1] - Since its establishment on October 23, 2023, the fund has achieved a return of 19.63% [1] - The fund's return over the past month is reported at 7.61% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) opened down by 0.34% [1] - China Petroleum opened down by 0.10% [1] - China Petrochemical remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] - Jereh Group opened down by 1.55% [1] - China Merchants Energy opened up by 0.33% [1] - Guanghui Energy opened down by 0.39% [1] - COSCO Shipping Energy opened up by 0.79% [1] - Hengli Petrochemical opened down by 1.15% [1] - China Merchants South Oil opened down by 0.31% [1] - CNOOC Engineering opened down by 0.53% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend-paying stocks, particularly in the banking sector, are gaining attention in the market as they continue to show strong performance and increasing dividend payouts [3][4]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - On November 20, A-share banking stocks continued their strong performance, with China Bank (601988.SH) rising by 4%, reaching a historical high, while other major banks also saw increases of over 3% [3]. - The total market capitalization of the four major banks (ICBC, CCB, ABC, and BOC) in A-shares has exceeded 2 trillion yuan [3]. - In the Hong Kong market, Minsheng Bank (01988.HK) led the gains with over a 3% increase, while other banks also saw significant rises [3]. Group 2: Dividend Distribution - As of November 20, 24 out of 42 A-share listed banks have announced mid-term dividends totaling approximately 263.8 billion yuan, marking an increase from the previous year [3]. - High dividend assets are becoming increasingly attractive as deposit rates continue to decline, with many companies in various sectors offering dividends above 4% [7]. Group 3: High Dividend Stocks - There are currently 124 companies in the A-share market with a dividend yield exceeding 5%, with 7 companies yielding over 10% [4][6]. - The top three companies with the highest dividend yields are Dongfang Yuhong (002271.SZ) at 14.1%, Siwei Liekong (603508.SH) at 13.25%, and Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) at 12% [7][8]. - Among the 124 companies with yields over 5%, 85 have seen their stock prices rise in the past year, indicating the resilience of high dividend strategies in the current market [8]. Group 4: Policy Support for Dividends - The regulatory environment is encouraging companies to increase dividend payouts, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission advocating for more frequent and stable dividends [9]. Group 5: Long-term Dividend Trends - For the 2024 reporting period, the companies with the highest dividend yields include Haoxiangni (002582.SZ) at 16.91%, Meiyingsen (002303.SZ) at 15.95%, and Jinshi Technology (002951.SZ) at 14.97% [10][12]. - In 2023, the top dividend yielders were Libai Shares (603519.SH) at 15.34%, Rong'an Real Estate (000517.SZ) at 13.06%, and Yutong Bus (600066.SH) at 11.32% [10][12]. Group 6: Risks of High Dividend Strategies - High dividend strategies are not without risks, as some cyclical stocks may experience significant fluctuations in dividend yields [5]. - Investors should be cautious of "high dividend traps," where declining stock prices artificially inflate dividend yields, potentially indicating deteriorating fundamentals [5][15]. - The market has seen instances where companies maintain high dividends to attract investors despite underlying financial pressures [16][17].

Group 1: Bank Sector Performance - The bank sector is becoming a market focus, with A-share banks showing strong performance, particularly China Bank, which rose 4% to reach a historical high [1] - As of November 20, the total market capitalization of the four major banks in A-shares has exceeded 2 trillion yuan [1] - In the Hong Kong market, Minsheng Bank led gains with over 3% increase, while other banks also saw significant rises [1] Group 2: High Dividend Stocks - There are currently 124 companies in A-shares with a dividend yield exceeding 5%, with 7 companies yielding over 10% [2][3] - The top three companies with the highest dividend yields are Dongfang Yuhong (14.1%), Siwei Liekong (13.25%), and Guanghui Energy (12%) [3][4] - High dividend stocks are not limited to the banking sector but are also found in utilities, energy, and telecommunications, providing a buffer against market volatility [2][3] Group 3: Dividend Distribution Trends - As of November 20, 24 out of 42 A-share listed banks have announced mid-term dividends totaling approximately 263.8 billion yuan, marking an increase from the previous year [1] - Regulatory bodies are encouraging companies to enhance shareholder returns through measures like "cancellation-style buybacks" and multiple annual dividends [5] Group 4: Long-term Dividend Trends - For the 2024 reporting period, the companies with the highest projected dividend yields are Haoxiangni (16.91%), Meiyingsen (15.95%), and Jinshi Technology (14.97%) [6] - In 2023, the top dividend yielders included Libai Co. (15.34%), Rong'an Real Estate (13.06%), and Yutong Bus (11.32%) [7][8] Group 5: Characteristics of High Dividend Companies - High dividend companies are typically found in stable sectors like utilities, energy, telecommunications, and consumer staples, which are less affected by economic cycles [8] - These companies often have clear and stable dividend policies, viewing consistent dividends as a means to maintain credibility and attract long-term investors [8] Group 6: Risks Associated with High Dividend Strategies - High dividend strategies may carry risks, as some companies with high yields may face declining performance or debt issues [10][12] - The phenomenon of "high dividend traps" can occur when a company's stock price falls, artificially inflating the dividend yield without a corresponding increase in earnings [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a slight adjustment towards market-oriented policies in the long-term coal supply contracts for 2026 compared to 2025, with both quantity and price aspects moving closer to market mechanisms [2][7] - The signing volume for coal enterprises is set to be no less than 75% of their own resource volume, while for power generation enterprises, the minimum signing volume should be at least 80% of the demand [2] - The fulfillment rates have been relaxed slightly, with monthly fulfillment remaining at no less than 80%, quarterly fulfillment now being generally no less than 90%, and annual fulfillment also generally no less than 90% [2] - The pricing mechanism for long-term contracts may begin to reference indices, with a monthly adjustment mechanism established for the pricing of coal from production areas [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the coal mining industry continues to show a long-term upward price trend driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher taxation by local governments [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The 2026 policy document indicates that contracts for coal from production areas must align with reasonable price ranges and establish a monthly adjustment mechanism through negotiation between supply and demand enterprises [3] - The pricing for long-term contracts for coal remains unchanged, with a base price set at current levels [4] Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the coal mining sector has shown a performance of 2.3% over one month, 11.3% over three months, and 0.2% over twelve months, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which recorded 1.6%, 8.6%, and 15.4% respectively [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, highlighting their strong cash flow and high asset quality [8] - Specific recommendations include: - Steady stocks: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others - Stocks with greater elasticity in thermal coal: Yanzhou Coal, Jinko Energy, and others - Stocks with greater elasticity in coking coal: Huaibei Mining, Pingdingshan Coal, and others [8] Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several coal enterprises [10]