Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream industries, particularly in electronic materials and new energy materials [1] - It emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending large energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [1] - The report highlights the high prosperity of leading companies in the refrigerant and vitamin industries [1] - It notes an overall improvement in macroeconomic expectations, suggesting attention to undervalued leading companies and those in the light hydrocracking sub-industry [1] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of February 10-16, 2025, among 101 tracked chemical products, 43 saw price increases, 26 saw declines, and 32 remained stable [7] - The average price of WTI crude oil was $70.74 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, while Brent crude oil was $74.74 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 0.11% [31] - The report indicates a tightening supply of potassium chloride due to reduced production and limited import availability, with prices rising to 2797 CNY/ton, up 4.19% week-on-week [32] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the rapidly developing electronic materials and new energy materials sectors [8] - It suggests that the oil and gas extraction sector will continue to see high prosperity, with energy state-owned enterprises improving quality and efficiency [8] - The report identifies specific companies to recommend, including China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and several others in the new materials and chemical sectors [8] Price Changes - The average price of DMF increased to 4300 CNY/ton, up 4.24% week-on-week, despite a year-on-year decrease of 12.65% [33] - The report notes that the overall market for chemical products is experiencing a mixed trend, with some products seeing significant price increases while others decline [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Recent trade frictions have raised concerns about economic growth, leading to downward pressure on oil prices, while leading stocks remain weak. The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices for bottom-fishing opportunities. Additionally, the importance of food security has increased due to global instability, making agricultural and food supply chains more resilient. The report anticipates sustained economic improvement and upward elasticity from supply-side adjustments [11] Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of February 14, Brent oil price increased by 0.1% to $74.74 per barrel. Concerns over U.S. sanctions on certain oil-producing countries initially pushed prices up, but an increase in U.S. commercial oil inventories and easing geopolitical tensions led to a price retraction. As of February 7, U.S. commercial oil inventories stood at 427.9 million barrels, a weekly increase of 4.1 million barrels [12] - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were petroleum coke (up 24.0%), natural gas (up 12.5%), and acetone (up 7.6%). The top three price decreases were liquid chlorine (down 26.9%), threonine (down 14.0%), and vitamin B2 (down 6.3%) [13] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects expected to launch [11] - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again after addressing previous macro demand pressures [11] - Jinhui Industrial: A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in core product conditions [11] - Yuntianhua: A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustained demand for phosphate rock [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][16] Core Views - The global MDI manufacturers have raised prices due to rising raw material, energy, and logistics costs, which supports the industry's upward trend [2][3][4] - Demand is bolstered by policies promoting home renovation and automotive upgrades, indicating strong support for the MDI market [3][9] - Wanhua Chemical is a leading player in the polyurethane industry, with stable profit guarantees and ongoing project advancements [3][16] Summary by Sections Price Adjustments - Major polyurethane companies have increased MDI and TDI prices across various regions, with Wanhua Chemical raising prices by $200/ton in the ASEAN region [2][4] - MDI market prices have increased since the beginning of the year, with prices for polymer MDI and pure MDI reaching 18,875 and 19,550 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 750 and 1,150 CNY/ton [2][4] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side benefits from policies supporting home appliance upgrades and automotive replacements, with significant production increases in refrigerators and freezers [9] - The MDI market is experiencing strong export levels, with polymer MDI exports reaching 100,500 tons in December 2024, a year-on-year increase of 87% [5][9] Capacity Expansion - Wanhua Chemical is set to contribute significantly to global MDI capacity expansion, with plans to add 130,000 tons of new capacity [12][13] - The company has multiple ongoing projects, including a 600,000-ton MDI capacity expansion project expected to be completed in 2025 [12][16] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for Wanhua Chemical from 2024 to 2026 are 14.708 billion, 17.272 billion, and 18.944 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.68, 5.50, and 6.03 CNY [3][16] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 14.7, 12.5, and 11.4 for the years 2024 to 2026 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see stable growth in its polyurethane business, with MDI capacity projected to increase from 3.5 million tons to 4.9 million tons over the next 3-4 years, raising its market share from 32.62% to 38.72% [1] - The petrochemical segment's profitability is expected to improve with the commissioning of the ethylene phase II project in 2025, increasing C2 capacity to 2.2 million tons [1] - The new materials segment continues to launch new products, with ongoing investments in battery materials and other products [1] Company Financials - The company's projected revenue for 2024-2026 is as follows: 2024: 189.48 billion RMB, 2025: 216.82 billion RMB, 2026: 229.35 billion RMB, with growth rates of 8.05%, 14.43%, and 5.78% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 15.38 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 19.49 billion RMB by 2026 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.90 RMB, 5.75 RMB, and 6.21 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Price Tracking - The price of pure MDI is projected to be 18,611 RMB per ton in January 2025, a decrease of 145 RMB from December 2024, reflecting a -0.77% change [1] - The TDI price is expected to be 13,458 RMB per ton in January 2025, an increase of 494 RMB from December 2024, showing a 3.81% change [2] Production and Sales Data - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a polyurethane production volume of 1.38 million tons, a decrease of 6.12% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 15.97% year-on-year [18] - The sales volume for the same period was 1.41 million tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 13.71% [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Wanhua Chemical with a target price of **100.47 yuan**, based on a 17x PE multiple for 2025, reflecting a 15% premium due to its superior long-term ROE and historical growth [4][7] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical is expected to reach a significant inflection point in 2025, driven by improved profitability in its polyurethane business and enhanced dividend potential [2][9] - The polyurethane business, particularly MDI, is anticipated to benefit from a favorable supply-demand dynamic, with limited new global capacity additions and steady demand growth [9][12] - The company's dividend capacity is expected to improve as capital expenditures on heavy-asset projects decrease, shifting focus from upstream bulk chemicals to downstream new materials and fine chemicals [9][13] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from **175.36 billion yuan** in 2023 to **229.48 billion yuan** in 2026, with a CAGR of **6.1%** [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from **16.82 billion yuan** in 2023 to **21.45 billion yuan** in 2026, with a CAGR of **15.6%** [6] - EPS is adjusted to **4.76 yuan**, **5.91 yuan**, and **6.83 yuan** for 2024-2026, down from previous estimates of **5.82 yuan**, **6.89 yuan**, and **8.00 yuan** [4] Polyurethane Business Outlook - MDI industry is expected to see improved profitability due to limited new capacity and rising demand, with Wanhua's MDI business entering a prolonged upcycle [9][12] - Global MDI demand is projected to reach **917-991 million tons** by 2027, with supply growth potentially lagging behind demand, creating a tight market [20][21] - Wanhua's cost advantage and strategic capacity expansions position it well to capitalize on the industry's recovery [33][36] Dividend Potential - Wanhua's dividend capacity is expected to improve significantly from 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditures and higher EBITDA [51][53] - The company's dividend payout ratio could reach **40% or higher**, translating to over **8 billion yuan** in dividends, making it attractive to income-focused investors [53][55] Industry and Competitive Landscape - Wanhua's integrated production base, comparable in scale to BASF's, supports its competitive advantage in cost and efficiency [46][48] - The company's shift towards downstream new materials and fine chemicals is expected to reduce cyclicality and improve investment returns [47][49] - Competitors like Covestro and Huntsman face financial challenges, potentially limiting their ability to expand capacity and compete effectively [25][29]

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-58 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东部分股份质押公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 公司股东烟台中诚投资股份有限公司持有万华化学股份 330,379,594 股，占公司总股本 比例 10.52%，本次股份质押业务办理完成后，烟台中诚投资股份有限公司累计质押股 份 39,890,000 股，占其持股数量比例 12.07%。 公司于 2024 年 12 月 13 日获悉烟台中诚投资股份有限公司（以下简称"中 诚投资"）所持有本公司的部分股份被质押，具体情况如下。 2024 年 12 月 14 日 2 3.股东累计质押股份情况 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人宁波市中凯信创业投资股份有限 公司（以下简称"中凯信"）累计质押股份情况如下： 1 股东 名称 是否为 控股股 东 本次质押股 数 是否为限 售股（如 是，注明 限售类 型） 是否 补充 质押 质押起 始日 质押到 期日 质权人 占其所 持股份 比例 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2024 年 11 月 27 日(星期三)至 12 月 3 日(星期二)16:00 前登录上证路演中心 网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 stocks@whchem.com 进行提问。公司将在说 明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 万华化学集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 29 日发 布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年 第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2024 年 12 月 4 日上午 10:00-11:00 举 行 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、 说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2024 年第三季度的经营 成果及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟通，在信息披露允许的范 围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 二、 说明会召开的时间、地点 证券代码：600309 证券简称： ...

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-56 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东部分股份质押公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 3.股东累计质押股份情况 1 股东 名称 是否为控 股股东 本次质押股 数 是否为限售 股（如是， 注明限售类 型） 是否补 充质押 质押起始 日 质押到期 日 质权人 占其所 持股份 比例 占公司 总股本 比例 质押融 资资金 用途 合成 国际 否 4,000,000 否 否 2024 年11 月 20 日 2027 年10 月 28 号 青岛银行 股份有限 公司烟台 开发区科 技支行 2.31% 0.13% 借款担 保 合计 4,000,000 2.31% 0.13% 1.本次股份质押基本情况 特此公告。 重要内容提示: 公司股东 Prime Partner International Limited 持有万华化学股份 172,993,229 股， 占公司总股本比例 5.51%，本次股份质押业务办理完成后，Prime Partner ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the operations and market outlook of **Wanhua Chemical**, focusing on its three main business segments: **MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate)**, **TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate)**, and **New Materials** [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33]. Key Points and Arguments MDI Segment - **Market Growth**: MDI consumption increased from 735,000 tons in 2020 to 786,000 tons in 2021, reflecting a 7% growth, with a further increase to 815,000 tons in 2023, showing a 1% growth year-over-year [5][6]. - **Market Share**: Wanhua's MDI market share rose from 24% in 2020 to 33% in 2023, with consumption increasing from 180,000 tons to over 270,000 tons [5][6]. - **Future Demand**: Potential demand for MDI is expected to grow in sectors such as automotive, adhesives, and construction materials, with a notable increase in the use of polyurethane materials [7][8]. - **Production Capacity**: Wanhua plans to expand its MDI production capacity significantly, with current capacities at Yantai (110,000 tons), Ningbo (120,000 tons), and Fujian (40,000 tons), with future expansions planned [9][10]. TDI Segment - **Market Trends**: The TDI market is experiencing a contraction in consumption, with European producers like BASF and Mitsui Chemical reducing production due to high competition and cost pressures [12][13]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Wanhua is consolidating its position in the TDI market as competitors exit, leading to an increase in market share for leading firms [12][13]. New Materials Segment - **Product Diversification**: The new materials segment includes various products such as ADI (Amino Diisocyanate), PC (Polycarbonate), PMMA (Polymethyl Methacrylate), and SAP (Super Absorbent Polymer), which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2][3][4][23][24][25][26][27][28]. - **Market Position**: Wanhua is focusing on high-performance materials, with significant investments in R&D to enhance product quality and market competitiveness [23][24][25][26][27][28]. Synergies and Strategic Positioning - **Vertical Integration**: Wanhua's strategy includes integrating its chemical production with downstream applications, enhancing cost efficiency and product quality [19][20][21]. - **Cost Advantages**: The company benefits from lower production costs compared to international competitors, with estimates suggesting a cost advantage of approximately 1,500 to 2,000 RMB per ton [10][20]. Industry Dynamics - **Global Supply Chain**: The global MDI market is dominated by a few key players, with Wanhua, BASF, and Covestro controlling about 90% of the market share [12][13]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Recent environmental approvals for new projects, such as Wanhua's MDI expansion in Fujian, indicate a supportive regulatory environment for growth [9][10]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: The company anticipates a steady revenue growth rate of 10% to 20% annually in its core businesses, driven by increasing demand and market share [32][33]. Additional Important Insights - **Emerging Markets**: The company is exploring opportunities in battery materials and other new energy sectors, indicating a forward-looking approach to market trends [32][33]. - **Sustainability Focus**: Wanhua is also investing in sustainable materials, such as biodegradable plastics, aligning with global trends towards environmental responsibility [31][32]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Wanhua Chemical's strategic positioning, market dynamics, and growth prospects across its business segments.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is driven by technological innovation and operational excellence, positioning itself as a global chemical giant with high technology and low cost as its competitive advantages [2] - Short-term profitability is influenced by product price spreads, while long-term growth is driven by the company's ability to continuously evolve and launch milestone products [3] - The company's MDI business has proven its strength, and future projects will be key to its continued growth [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's Q4 2024 price spread index averaged 76.01, up 2.76 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 13.27th percentile historically [4] - Q4 2024 net profit is estimated at 3.9 billion yuan, with the polyurethane segment's price spread index at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024 [4] - The petrochemical segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at a historical low of 60.57, down 4.79 from Q3 2024 [4] - The new materials segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 37.74, down 0.12 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 10.04th percentile historically [4] Project Progress - The company's 150,000-ton/year MDI technical renovation and expansion project in Fujian has completed its first environmental impact assessment [5] - The company's 10,000-ton/year vanillin industrial chain project has entered the environmental impact report review stage [6] - The company's 10,000-ton/year lithium iron phosphate project has completed its first environmental impact assessment [8] MDI Market Analysis - In October 2024, the average price of pure MDI was 18,248 yuan/ton, down 11.67% year-on-year and 0.90% month-on-month [9] - The price spread between pure MDI and coal/benzene was 12,193 yuan/ton in October 2024, down 13.49% year-on-year but up 2.71% month-on-month [9] - Overseas MDI plants have experienced frequent unplanned shutdowns, with domestic MDI exports increasing by 5.69% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024 [10] Downstream Demand - Domestic refrigerator production in September 2024 increased by 9.0% year-on-year, while exports rose by 9.7% [11] - Domestic car production in October 2024 increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with sales up 7.0% [11] - New housing construction area in September 2024 decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, while cumulative construction area fell by 12.2% [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted at 190.6/230.5/261.8 billion yuan, with net profits of 15.0/20.4/26.0 billion yuan [12] - The company's PE ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are estimated at 16x, 12x, and 9x, respectively [14] Polyurethane Segment - The polyurethane segment's price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 96.34, up 7.91 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 22.14th percentile historically [71] - The MDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 127.53, up 12.06 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 30.41th percentile historically [71] TDI Segment - The TDI price spread index for Q4 2024 is at 43.37, down 1.56 from Q3 2024, placing it at the 6.81th percentile historically [129]