格隆汇10月13日｜A股市场黄金概念股午后进一步拉升，其中，晓程科技涨超10%，西部黄金拉升涨 停，合百集团、中国瑞林此前涨停，豫光金铅、招金黄金、鹏欣资源涨超7%，中金黄金涨超5%，白银 有色、赤峰黄金、湖南白银、山东黄金、四川黄金涨超4%。 消息面上，中美贸易摩擦升级，国际金价续涨，现货黄金升至4074美元/盎司，再创历史新高。现货黄 金年内累涨超55%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 1 | 10.19 | 83.27亿 | 108.29 | | 603257 | 中国瑞林 | 1 | 10.01 | 90.49亿 | 271.16 | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 1 | 10.00 | 300亿 | 188.10 | | 000417 | 合百集团 | 1 | 9.94 | 54.36亿 | 11.37 | | 600531 | 豫光金铅 | | 7.62 | 155亿 | 128.36 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | | 7. ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry stocks are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 2.27% as of October 13, 2025, with notable gains from individual stocks such as Western Gold (601069) up 10.00%, Xiaocheng Technology (300139) up 9.61%, and Yuguang Jinlei (600531) up 8.98% [1][2]. - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) increased by 2.21%, with a cumulative rise of 10.62% over the past two weeks, ranking it in the top one-sixth among comparable funds [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand - The Gold Stock ETF saw a significant increase in scale, growing by 907 million yuan over the past two weeks, placing it in the top one-sixth among comparable funds [2][3]. - The ETF's shares increased by 94 million units in the same period, also ranking in the top one-sixth among comparable funds [3]. - The latest net inflow for the Gold Stock ETF was 192 million yuan, with a total of 111 million yuan attracted over the last four trading days [3]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals, including a 97.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, have bolstered market confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and the U.S. government shutdown have heightened demand for gold, reinforcing its appeal as a protective investment [3][4]. - Analysts predict that short-term demand for gold will remain strong due to these factors, while long-term trends indicate continued central bank purchases and a shift from net selling to net buying in gold ETFs [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 2.43% on October 13. However, gold stocks showed resilience, with notable increases in their share prices. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 2.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.43% [1] Group 2: Gold Stocks - WanGuo Gold Group opened over 6% higher [1] - Zijin Mining International opened over 4% higher [1] - Shandong Gold opened over 3% higher [1]

Group 1 - Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.04%, reaching 43.33 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.017 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.99%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 199.748 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on January 31, 2000, and listed on August 28, 2003, is primarily engaged in gold mining, refining, and the production and sale of gold and silver products, including standard gold bars and various specifications of investment gold bars [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes 50.14% from purchased gold, 29.96% from self-produced gold, 9.75% from trading, 7.65% from small gold bars, and 2.50% from other sources [1] Group 2 - Dongcai Fund has one fund heavily invested in Shandong Gold, specifically the Dongcai Nonferrous Enhanced A fund, which reduced its holdings by 65,000 shares in the second quarter, maintaining 222,300 shares, representing 3.42% of the fund's net value [2] - The Dongcai Nonferrous Enhanced A fund, established on March 16, 2021, has a current scale of 93.1972 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 71.64%, ranking 133 out of 4220 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Yang Luwei, has a tenure of 4 years and 213 days, with the fund's total assets currently at 1.411 billion CNY, achieving a best return of 99.99% and a worst return of -38.95% during his management period [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Gold has experienced significant stock price appreciation, with a year-to-date increase of 87.17% and a recent surge of 10.10% over the last five trading days [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 13, Shandong Gold's stock price rose by 2.01% to 42.08 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 22.32 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.49% [1] - The stock has shown substantial growth over various time frames: 10.10% over the last five days, 11.65% over the last 20 days, and 35.78% over the last 60 days [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold reported operating revenue of 567.66 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28.08 billion CNY, which is a 102.98% increase year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 48.73 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 19.59 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, Shandong Gold had 91,400 shareholders, a decrease of 27.62% from the previous period, with an average of 0 shares per shareholder [2] - The top circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 984 million shares, while Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF are also significant shareholders, with holdings of 32.23 million and 22.95 million shares respectively [3]

Core Insights - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have led to a surge in safe-haven investments, pushing gold prices to a new historical high of $4,060 per ounce [1] - The rise in gold prices has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, particularly gold-related stocks, which have shown significant gains [1] Company Performance - Zijin Mining International saw an increase of over 6%, with a latest price of $139.00 and a market capitalization of 372.11 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 94.16% [2] - China Silver Group rose by over 5%, with a latest price of $0.800 and a market capitalization of 2.17 billion, marking a year-to-date increase of 238.98% [2] - Chifeng Jilong Gold experienced a gain of 4.48%, with a latest price of $34.020 and a market capitalization of 64.65 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 151.16% [2] - Lingbao Gold saw an increase of 4.04%, with a latest price of $19.580 and a market capitalization of 25.20 billion, reflecting a remarkable year-to-date increase of 640.79% [2] - Zefeng Gold rose by 3.55%, with a latest price of $1.750 and a market capitalization of 2.17 billion, indicating a staggering year-to-date increase of 894.32% [2] - Shandong Gold increased by 2.51%, with a latest price of $40.080 and a market capitalization of 184.77 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 228.34% [2] - Zijin Mining rose by 2.08%, with a latest price of $34.360 and a market capitalization of 913.21 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 152.73% [2] - Jihai Resources increased by 2.27%, with a latest price of $1.800 and a market capitalization of 3.60 billion, marking a year-to-date increase of 116.87% [2] - Zhangguan Gold rose by 2.12%, with a latest price of $2.890 and a market capitalization of 12.71 billion, indicating a year-to-date increase of 504.60% [2] - China National Gold International saw an increase of 1.28%, with a latest price of $141.900 and a market capitalization of 56.25 billion, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 251.42% [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened significantly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.49%, the Shenzhen Component down 3.88%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.44% [3][4] - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.43% [6][7] Stock Performance - Weite New Materials (688585) resumed trading and hit the daily limit down, falling 20% to 105.68 CNY [5] - Major stocks in the Hong Kong market, such as Bilibili and SenseTime, dropped over 5%, while Shandong Gold and Kingsoft saw gains of over 3% and 6%, respectively [6][8] Commodity Market - Futures for coking coal saw a significant drop, with a daily decline of 3%, trading at 1129 CNY per ton [10] - The price of spot gold increased by 0.72%, reaching a peak of 4060.05 USD per ounce [13] Currency Exchange - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1007, an increase of 41 basis points from the previous trading day [10]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting strong performance and favorable market conditions [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the recent increase in gold prices is driven by heightened risk aversion due to renewed US-China trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - Industrial metals are expected to continue strengthening due to supply disruptions and robust demand, particularly in copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, while the SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 11.89% during the reporting period [1]. - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw significant price increases of 6.48% and 2.48%, respectively [1]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation - The report notes that aluminum prices are supported by a seasonal increase in demand and controlled inventory levels, with a current price of 20,950 RMB/ton [27]. - Copper prices are influenced by supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with a recent price of 10,374 USD/ton [12][41]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - The report highlights that aluminum production is expected to remain low due to increased direct supply ratios and seasonal demand, which supports price stability [25][26]. - Copper supply is under pressure from production cuts by major mining companies, which is expected to sustain higher prices [2][41]. 2.3 Lead, Tin, and Nickel - Lead prices have shown resilience due to tight supply conditions, with recent prices around 20,026 USD/ton [58]. - Nickel prices are fluctuating due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and supply concerns, currently priced at 122,180 RMB/ton [60]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have surged due to strong safe-haven demand, with a recent price of 4,035.50 USD/oz, reflecting a 6.48% increase [14][74]. - Silver prices are also rising, driven by industrial demand and investment interest, currently at 47.52 USD/oz [14][74]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with prices supported by strong consumption in electric vehicles and energy storage, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 71,300 RMB/ton [14][3]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices around 331,500 RMB/ton [3][14]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, citing strong earnings forecasts and favorable market conditions [4][8].