Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 52.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 12.62 billion yuan, a significant drop of 41.9%, and net profit was 370 million yuan, down 46.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The decline in revenue in the third quarter is primarily attributed to weak industry demand, which affected the shipment volume during the ordering meeting. The consumption of gold jewelry and gold bars in the industry decreased by 29% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a challenging market environment [3][4]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company maintains a strong market position with 6,022 stores as of the first half of 2024 and a robust brand presence. The company is expected to see significant improvement in performance once end-user demand recovers [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 52.58 billion yuan, down 15.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 12.62 billion yuan, a decline of 41.9%, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, down 46.2% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for the third quarter was 6.5%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in sales strategies to cope with weak industry demand and a smaller increase in gold prices compared to the previous quarter [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the gold jewelry industry, with a multi-faceted marketing strategy that includes self-operated stores, joint ventures, and exclusive distributors. This diversified approach is expected to enhance operational stability and market resilience [5]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 3.84, 4.20, and 4.64 yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating potential for recovery and growth in the medium to long term [5].

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's cumulative cash dividends from 2018 to 2023 amounted to 43.73 billion CNY, with a dividend payout ratio of 43.78% of net profit during the same period [1] - In the first nine months of 2024, the total sales of gold jewelry decreased by 10.40% in January, 12% in August, and 10.40% in September, reflecting a downward trend in the market [1] - The domestic raw gold production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 268.068 tons, a decrease of 1.17%, while the national gold consumption was 741.732 tons, down 11.18% [5] Group 2: Market Conditions - The rapid increase in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 23% in the closing price at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, has significantly impacted end-consumer demand [5] - The retail market for gold jewelry has shown a declining trend since April 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.10% in sales [2] - The company has adjusted its sales policies to support distributors and franchisees in response to the slowdown in retail sales [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue innovating in product design and marketing to attract younger consumers and enhance brand appeal [4] - There are no current plans for stock repurchase or increase in holdings, focusing instead on product development and market expansion [2] - The company is actively exploring new policies and market dynamics to address B-share issues and improve market positioning [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its operational quality and adapt to market changes by upgrading store themes and expanding product lines [6] - Future growth strategies include leveraging e-commerce channels and hosting exclusive product sales events to increase customer engagement [5] - The company is committed to maintaining a stable and high-quality development trajectory while safeguarding investor interests [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price yet to be specified [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with revenue at 12.6 billion yuan, down 42% year-on-year, and net profit at 370 million yuan, down 46% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its core capabilities in brand, quality, technology, standards, and service to drive high-quality development and achieve its operational goals [1] - The rising gold prices are impacting end-consumer demand, prompting the company to implement supportive measures to stabilize operations, including new product development and increased advertising [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 52.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.8 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.56%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points, and the net margin was 4.34%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting EPS of 3.8 yuan, 4.3 yuan, and 4.7 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x [1][2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2022 was 63,010.14 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.36%, and for 2023, it was 71,435.64 million yuan, with a growth rate of 13.37% [2][5] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 60,720.30 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 15% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 1,700.34 million yuan, with a growth rate of -9.38%, and for 2023, it was 2,214.40 million yuan, with a growth rate of 30.23% [2][5] Cash Flow and Investment Activities - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 7,211.58 million yuan, with a significant increase compared to 964.08 million yuan in 2022 [4] - The company is expected to have a net cash increase of 171.33 million yuan in 2024, following a cash increase of 3,731.53 million yuan in 2023 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 525.82 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15.28%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 17.76 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year [4][6] - In the third quarter of 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue, reporting 126.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.72 billion yuan, down 46.20% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is actively supporting its franchisees during the downturn in demand caused by rising gold prices, which has pressured terminal sales [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 525.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.76 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year. The revenue for the third quarter alone was 126.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 41.89% year-on-year decline, with a net profit of 3.72 billion yuan, a 46.20% decrease [4][6] - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2024 was 6.52%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, attributed to support provided to franchisees and changes in product structure [6][9] Market and Industry Analysis - The gold jewelry consumption in the third quarter of 2024 was 130 tons, down 29% year-on-year, while gold bar consumption was 69 tons, down 9% year-on-year. The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry above designated size decreased by 7.6% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to maintain a long-term investment value despite the current challenges, supported by its strong brand and stable expansion through a wholesale (franchise) model [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.0 billion yuan, 19.9 billion yuan, and 21.0 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The estimated valuation for 2024 is set at 14-16 times PE, corresponding to a market value range of 266-303 billion yuan, with a reasonable value range of 50.76-58.02 yuan per share [9]

老凤祥股份有限公司 关于参加 2024 年上海辖区上市公司 三季报集体业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 老凤祥股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 30 日发布了《公 司 2024 年第三季度报告》。为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，公司将参加"2024 年上海辖区上市公司三季报集体业绩说明会"活动（以下简称"本次说明会"）， 现将有关事项公告如下： 一、说明会类型、时间、地点 本次说明会将采取网络的方式举行，投资者可以登录"上证路演中心"网站 （https://roadshow.sseinfo.com）或关注微信公众号上证路演中心参与互动交 流，活动时间为 2024 年 11 月 13 日（周三）15:00 至 16:30。 二、参加人员 股票简称：老凤祥 股票代码：600612 编号：临 2024-033 老凤祥 B 900905 公司党委书记、董事长杨奕先生；公司副董事长、总经理黄骅先生；独立董 事马民良先生；财务总监凌晓静女士；董事会秘书邱建敏先生（如有特殊情况 ...

股票简称：老凤祥 股票代码：600612 编号：临 2024-032 老凤祥 B 900905 老凤祥股份有限公司 关于办公地址变更的公告 除上述变更外，公司联系电话、传真、电子信箱及注册地址等其他基本信息 均保持不变。本次变更后公司最新联系方式如下： 1.办公地址：上海市徐汇区凯旋路 2588 号-6 临 2.联系电话：021-54480605 3.邮政编码：200030 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 为了加快推动工业上楼，打造新型智造空间，老凤祥股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）将启动上海市漕溪路园区改造工程。为此，公司办公地址于即日起 由"上海市徐汇区漕溪路 270 号"搬迁至"上海市徐汇区凯旋路 2588 号-6 临"， 邮政编码由"200235"变更为"200030"。 4.传真：021-54481529 5.电子信箱：lfx600612@lfxgf.com。 以上变更信息自本公告日起正式启用，敬请广大投资者关注以上信息变更， 若由此给您带来不便，敬请谅解。 特此公告。 老凤祥股份有限公司 2 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] - Target price adjusted to 61.12 RMB (previously 70.50 RMB) [3][5] Core Views - Performance below expectations due to high gold prices impacting terminal sales and franchisee purchasing willingness [2][3] - Gross margin under pressure due to increased discounts and higher proportion of gold bars in sales [3] - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 126.23 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 41.89% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 3.72 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% [3] - State-owned enterprise reforms are progressing, with potential for performance elasticity [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 525.82 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 15.28% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.60% [3] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points [3] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 2.95%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 3.82/4.21/4.57 RMB, down from previous estimates of 4.70/5.20/5.70 RMB [3] Sales and Profitability - Sales structure and promotional discounts have put pressure on gross margins [3] - Operating expense ratio increased by 1.03 percentage points to 2.61% in Q3 2024 [3] - Sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios increased by +0.27pct/+0.60pct/+0.03pct/+0.14pct respectively [3] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The company is advancing comprehensive reforms under the "Double Hundred Action" initiative [3] - Implementation of a professional manager system is expected to enhance performance elasticity [3] Market and Valuation - Current stock price is 49.15 RMB [5] - 52-week price range is 47.10-86.19 RMB [6] - Market capitalization is 25.711 billion RMB [6] - PE ratio for 2024 is 12.87x, with a PB ratio of 2.01x [10] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include China Gold, Caibai, Laopu Gold, and Mankalun, with an average 2024 PE of 20.44x [11] - The company's 2024 PE valuation is set at 16x, lower than the industry average [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 57.12 CNY over the next six months, corresponding to a 15x PE for 2024 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.582 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.28% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.776 billion CNY, down 9.60% [3]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 12.623 billion CNY, a significant decline of 41.89%, and a net profit of 372 million CNY, down 46.20%, primarily due to a decrease in gold jewelry consumption caused by rising gold prices [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.56%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.38%, up 0.21 percentage points [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 8.56% and a net profit margin of 3.38% [4]. - The Q3 gross margin was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.95%, down 0.24 percentage points [4]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 63.383 billion CNY, 67.590 billion CNY, and 73.163 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected net profit of 1.992 billion CNY, 2.201 billion CNY, and 2.442 billion CNY for the same years [6][12]. Market Activities and Innovations - The company participated in significant events showcasing its brand heritage and innovative spirit, including the Hong Kong Jewelry Exhibition and the International Jewelry Culture Festival in Shanghai [5]. - It launched various products, including customized gold jewelry in collaboration with popular anime characters, demonstrating its commitment to innovation [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue growth is under pressure, with a significant decline in terminal sales. The report highlights that the gold jewelry consumption remains weak due to high gold prices and seasonal factors, leading to a decrease in sales volume [4]. - The report notes that the company's gross margin has declined, impacting profit performance, primarily due to an increase in the sales proportion of investment gold bars and adjustments in wholesale pricing [4]. - The company is actively innovating and expanding its brand influence through collaborations, such as the partnership with Bandai Namco to launch a limited edition gold Gundam series, which has received positive market feedback [4]. - The report projects a recovery in consumer sentiment as the peak sales season for gold jewelry approaches, which may help to alleviate the current decline in terminal sales [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 52,582 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,776 million yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year [5]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 8.56%, showing a slight increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 6.52%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 2,058 million yuan, 2,261 million yuan, and 2,440 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [4]. Market Context - The report indicates that gold jewelry consumption in China for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 400 tons, a decrease of 27.53% year-on-year, while gold bars and coins consumption increased by 27.14% to 283 tons [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming peak sales season for gold jewelry, which may help to improve terminal sales and reduce the current decline in consumer demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 68.04 CNY based on an 18x PE valuation for 2024 [2][3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.582 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion CNY, down 9.6%. In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit fell by 41.9% and 46.2% respectively, which was below market expectations [1] - High gold prices have suppressed end-user demand, with SGE gold T+D prices reaching 595.2 CNY per gram by the end of September 2024, marking an increase of 8.3% since early July and 24% since early January. This has led to a noticeable wait-and-see attitude among consumers, resulting in decreased enthusiasm among distributors [1] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.5%, attributed to a higher proportion of revenue from gold trading and the company's decision to offer discounts to distributors. Selling and administrative expense ratios increased by 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, likely due to slower revenue growth [1] - The inventory turnover days for the first three quarters were 53 days, a decrease of 3 days year-on-year. The net cash inflow from operating activities in Q3 2024 was 1.43 billion CNY, compared to a net outflow in the same period last year [1] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates that as gold prices stabilize, end-user consumption demand is expected to gradually recover. The company is seen to have long-term competitive advantages due to its "century-old brand heritage and quality distributor resources," and internal operational improvements are expected to further enhance operational potential [1] Financial Forecast and Adjustments - Based on the Q3 report, the earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 3.78 CNY, 4.37 CNY, and 4.88 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 4.49 CNY, 4.94 CNY, and 5.47 CNY [2][6]