南财投研通数据显示，8月25日，券商给予上市公司目标价共63次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排名居前的公司有隆平 高科、新集能源、北新建材，目标价涨幅分别为38.75%、37.40%、36.57%，分别属于种植业、煤炭开采、装修建材行业。 | | | 08月25日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 最高目标价 | 目标涨幅 | | | | | | (元) | (%) | | 000998 | 隆平高科 | 中国国际金融 | 跑赢行业 | 14.00 | 38.75 | | 601918 | 新集能源 | 中信证券 | 买入 | 9.00 | 37.40 | | 000786 | 北新建材 | 天风证券 | 买入 | 36.90 | 36.57 | | 688123 | 聚辰股份 | 华创证券 | 强推 | 112.61 | 34.48 | | 301308 | 江波龙 | 华泰证券 | 买入 | 129.10 | 33.46 | | 000786 | 北新建材 | 中国国际金融 | ...

Core Viewpoint - On August 25, 2023, brokerage firms provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases in target prices for companies in the agriculture, coal mining, and construction materials sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these industries [1][2]. Target Price Increases - The companies with the highest target price increases were: - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科) with a target price increase of 38.75% to 14.00 CNY [2] - Xinji Energy (新集能源) with a target price increase of 37.40% to 9.00 CNY [2] - Beixin Building Materials (北新建材) with a target price increase of 36.57% to 36.90 CNY [2] Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 163 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on August 25, with notable mentions: - Shede Liquor (舍得酒业) received 4 recommendations [4] - Shuiyang Co. (水羊股份) and Marubi Biotechnology (丸美生物) each received 3 recommendations [4] Rating Adjustments - One company had its rating upgraded: - Guodian Power (国电电力) was upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" by Huayuan Securities [5] - Three companies had their ratings downgraded: - Minhe Livestock (民和股份) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6] - Chifeng Gold (赤峰黄金) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6] - Silan Microelectronics (士兰微) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6] First-Time Coverage - Seven companies received first-time coverage with positive ratings: - Ganhua Science and Technology (甘化科工) received a "Buy" rating from Dongwu Securities [7] - Wangneng Environment (旺能环境) received a "Buy" rating from Xinda Securities [7] - Yingliu Co. (应流股份) received an "Increase" rating from Shanxi Securities [7] - New Clean Energy (新洁能) received an "Increase" rating from Industrial Securities [7] - Weijian Medical (稳健医疗) received a "Buy" rating from Northeast Securities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but a significant increase in non-recurring net profit, indicating a mixed performance amidst market challenges [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 77.655 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.52%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.687 billion yuan, down 45.11% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit increased by 56.12% to 3.41 billion yuan, while the second quarter net profit was 1.876 billion yuan, down 61.96% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 2.95 cents per kilowatt-hour to 0.4097 yuan per kilowatt-hour [3]. Segment Performance - The net profit contributions from various segments in the first half were as follows: thermal power 1.967 billion yuan, hydropower 0.883 billion yuan, wind power 0.529 billion yuan, and solar power 0.591 billion yuan [2]. - The company’s coal price elasticity exceeded market expectations, with the average coal price at 831.48 yuan per ton, down 87.46 yuan per ton year-on-year [2]. Operational Data - The total electricity sales volume for the first half was 195.8 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 3.53% year-on-year, with thermal power sales down 8% [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, the total installed capacity was 120.16 million kilowatts, with thermal power, hydropower, wind power, and solar power capacities growing by 6%, 0%, 7%, and 83% respectively [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend plan for 2025-2027, committing to a minimum of 60% of annual net profit for dividends and a minimum cash dividend of 0.22 yuan per share [4]. - The interim cash dividend for 2025 is set at 0.1 yuan per share, reflecting a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio [4]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a conventional energy integration platform, with plans to commission 8 GW of thermal power and 4 GW of hydropower by 2025-2026 [5]. - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected at 74.1 billion yuan, with a focus on renewable energy investments [5]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 6.8 billion, 7.6 billion, and 7.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13, 11, and 11 times [6].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, with the Shanghai 180 Infrastructure Index increasing by 1.19% to 1889.98 points and a trading volume of 39.504 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai 180 Infrastructure Index has seen a decline of 2.53% over the past month, 1.62% over the past three months, and 3.00% year-to-date [2] - The index is based on the Shanghai 180 Index and includes listed companies in infrastructure, resources, and transportation themes, reflecting their overall performance in the secondary market [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Infrastructure Index include: Yangtze Power (13.97%), China Telecom (8.57%), China State Construction (8.4%), China Mobile (7.18%), China Unicom (6.69%), China Nuclear Power (5.47%), Three Gorges Energy (4.45%), China Railway (4.31%), China Power Construction (3.9%), and Guodian Power (3.1%) [2] - The index's holdings are entirely from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with the public utility sector accounting for 40.05%, industrial sector for 36.17%, and communication services for 23.79% [3] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their performance and market conditions [4][16]. Core Insights - In July, the national electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, reaching 10,226 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [4][7]. - The increase in electricity consumption was primarily driven by urban and rural residents, contributing 38% to the total growth, with significant contributions from the secondary and tertiary industries as well [8][9]. - The report highlights the impact of high temperatures on electricity demand, noting that July was the hottest month since 1961, which significantly boosted residential electricity usage [8][9]. - Natural gas prices in Europe have rebounded due to geopolitical tensions, while prices in Asia and the US have decreased, indicating a mixed market environment [16][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the biomass energy sector following the introduction of new methodologies for carbon emissions reduction [4][16]. Summary by Sections Electricity - July's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kWh, marking a historic milestone with an 8.6% year-on-year growth [4][7]. - The first, second, and third industries, along with urban and rural residents, contributed to the overall electricity consumption growth, with the second industry showing a recovery in electricity usage [8][9]. - Recommendations include investing in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, and thermal power companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International [14][15]. Natural Gas - The report notes a stable supply-demand balance in the natural gas market, with US prices dropping to $2.76/mmBtu, while European prices have seen fluctuations due to geopolitical risks [16][20]. - Recommendations for investment include companies in the city gas sector and integrated natural gas traders, highlighting firms like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [41][42]. Environmental Sector - The introduction of new methodologies for biomass energy projects is expected to enhance profitability, with a focus on companies like Evergreen Group and China Everbright [4][16]. Market Performance - The report reviews market performance from August 18 to August 22, indicating that the gas, public utility, electricity, and environmental sectors underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Guoneng (Shenyang) Thermal Power Co., Ltd. indicates a strategic move in the energy sector, focusing on power generation and supply services [1] Company Summary - Guoneng (Shenyang) Thermal Power Co., Ltd. was established on August 23 with a registered capital of 1 billion RMB [1] - The company is fully owned by Beijing Guodian Power Co., Ltd., which is held approximately 57% by Guodian Power (600795) and 43% by China Shenhua (601088) [1] - The operational scope includes power generation, transmission, distribution, heating services, and research in emerging energy technologies [1]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 风险提示：电价不及预期，来水不及预期，煤价上涨超预期。 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 180,999 | 179,182 | 169,500 | 173,053 | 172,481 | | 同比增长率（%） | -7.02% | -1.00% | -5.40% | 2.10% | -0.33% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,609 | 9,831 | 6,809 | 7,614 | 7,901 | | 同比增长率（%） | 98.80% | 75.28% | -30.74% | 11.81% | 3.78% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.31 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.44 | | ROE（%） | 11.50% | 17.54% | 11.59% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guodian Power (600795) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The company is expected to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 60% in the next three years, with a proposed cash dividend of no less than 0.22 CNY per share (including tax) [4][10] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, the company has shown strong operational profit growth, particularly in non-recurring profit adjustments [7][10] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 77.65 billion CNY, down 9.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.69 billion CNY, down 45.1% year-on-year [4][10] - In Q2 2025, the revenue was 37.84 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.88 billion CNY, down 62% year-on-year [4][10] - The company reported a significant increase in non-recurring net profit in Q2 2025, primarily due to a 4.6 billion CNY investment gain from the transfer of Guodian Investment Inner Mongolia Energy Company [7][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 177.9 billion CNY, 185.7 billion CNY, and 186.9 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.14 billion CNY, 7.63 billion CNY, and 8.24 billion CNY [9][10] - The expected diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.40 CNY, 0.43 CNY, and 0.46 CNY respectively [9][10] Market Performance - As of August 22, 2025, the current stock price is 4.79 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 4.07 CNY to 6.02 CNY [3][11] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 85.43 billion CNY [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the electricity and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment [5]. Core Insights - In July, the national electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, reaching 10,226 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [10][11]. - The increase in electricity consumption was primarily driven by urban and rural residents, contributing 38% to the total growth, while the secondary and tertiary industries contributed 33% and 25%, respectively [11]. - The report highlights the impact of high temperatures in July, which were 1.3°C above the historical average, leading to increased electricity demand from residential sectors [11]. - In the gas sector, European gas prices have rebounded due to geopolitical tensions, while Asian and US gas prices have declined [19][30]. - The report suggests that the gas supply-demand balance remains loose, with US gas production at historical highs, contributing to lower prices [22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: July National Electricity Consumption Exceeds 1 Trillion kWh - The national electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kWh in July, marking a historic milestone [10]. - The first industry saw a 20.2% increase in electricity consumption, while the second and third industries grew by 4.7% and 10.7%, respectively [12]. - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to July was 58,633 billion kWh, a 4.5% year-on-year increase [14]. 2. Gas: Gas Supply-Demand Remains Loose, Geopolitical Tensions Affect European Gas Prices - As of August 22, the Henry Hub spot price in the US was $2.76/mmBtu, a weekly decrease of 7.19% [19]. - The TTF spot price in Europe rose to €33.10/MWh, reflecting an 8.17% increase due to geopolitical tensions [20]. - The report notes that European gas inventories are significantly lower than last year and the five-year average, raising concerns about supply stability [30]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the gas, public utilities, electricity, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index during the period from August 18 to August 22 [47]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report mentions the release of a notice regarding the bidding arrangement for new energy projects in Gansu Province, indicating ongoing developments in the renewable energy sector [54]. - Key announcements from companies such as Guodian Power and Kunlun Energy highlight their financial performance and strategic initiatives [55][58]. 5. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the public utility sector, indicating buy ratings for several firms, including China Nuclear Power and Huaneng International [59].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guodian Power (600795), has announced a robust cash dividend plan for 2025-2027, ensuring a minimum of 60% of net profit will be distributed as dividends, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns despite short-term revenue pressures [1][2]. Dividend Plan - The cash dividend plan stipulates that for the next three years, the total cash dividend (including interim dividends) will not be less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, provided that profits and cumulative undistributed profits are positive, and there are no significant investment plans exceeding 10% of total assets (approximately 51 billion) within 12 months [2]. - If the distributable profits are insufficient to meet the dividend standards, the company will supplement from cumulative undistributed profits [2]. - As of June 2025, the company reported cumulative undistributed profits of 54.018 billion, along with 68.7 billion in cash and financial assets, providing a solid financial cushion for the high dividend commitment [2]. Shareholder Rights Protection - The plan includes multiple mechanisms to protect the rights of minority shareholders, such as allowing independent directors to gather opinions from minority shareholders and submit dividend proposals for board review [3]. - The company will communicate with shareholders through various channels before the general meeting to address their concerns [3]. - Any adjustments to the dividend policy must be approved by at least two-thirds of the voting rights at the shareholders' meeting, ensuring stability and transparency in the dividend system [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase of 56% in net profit after deducting non-recurring items, indicating strong operational resilience despite short-term revenue fluctuations [4]. - The growth is attributed to cost optimization in the thermal power sector and the expansion of renewable energy, with solar power being the primary contributor to new installations and a substantial increase in generation volume [4]. - The renewable energy segment has become a crucial growth driver, with net profit from wind and solar surpassing 30%, making it the second-largest profit source after thermal power [4]. - The company has ample projects under construction and in reserve, with clear targets for new installations, laying the groundwork for long-term profitability and dividend fulfillment [4]. - The company's 60% dividend floor is significantly higher than the industry average, and its stable profitability, supported by long-term coal contracts and over 20% of installed capacity from renewables, enhances the sustainability of high dividends [4]. - Based on the current stock price and a minimum dividend of 0.22 per share, the company’s dividend yield could reach 6.18%, which is approximately 1.5 times higher than the industry average [4].