Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the public utility sector in Hong Kong [7]. Core Insights - The significant decline in Hong Kong HIBOR since May has created a favorable environment for investment in the public utility sector, particularly in electricity, which is seen as a defensive asset amid external market volatility [10][11]. - The report highlights that the electricity sector is experiencing a dual benefit from both external market conditions and internal performance improvements, with a notable decrease in coal prices and an increase in renewable energy generation [10][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - Since May, the Hong Kong banking sector has seen a 285% increase in interbank liquidity, with HIBOR dropping by 337 basis points, marking the largest monthly decline since 2002. As of June 13, the 1-month HIBOR stabilized around 0.60%, maintaining a near three-year low [10][11]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 8.02% from May 1 to June 13, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which only increased by 2.48% during the same period [10][11]. Performance of the Electricity Sector - The report notes that the electricity sector is uniquely positioned to benefit from both defensive and offensive strategies, with improved profitability expected due to lower coal prices and stable electricity prices. For instance, the Q5500 coal price at Qinhuangdao port fell to 635.64 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 212.81 CNY/ton [10][11]. - Renewable energy generation is also on the rise, with wind power generation growth rates improving significantly in recent months, indicating a robust recovery in the sector [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "carbon neutrality" initiative and ongoing electricity market reforms will lead to a comprehensive reassessment of the intrinsic value of electricity operators throughout the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Key companies to watch include Huadian International, China Resources Power, and Huaneng International, among others [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term growth in the renewable energy sector, recommending investments in companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and market conditions [10][11].

001376 百通能源 0.08 4.69 650.33 沪指6月13日下跌0.75%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有3个，涨幅居前的行业为石油石化、国防军 工、公用事业，涨幅分别为2.05%、1.72%、0.48%。公用事业行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行 业为美容护理、传媒，跌幅分别为4.12%、2.53%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出476.73亿元，今日有7个行业主力资金净流入，国防军工行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.72%，全天净流入资金25.70亿元，其次是石油石化行业，日 涨幅为2.05%，净流入资金为15.12亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有24个，计算机行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金70.43亿元，其 次是汽车行业，净流出资金为54.28亿元，净流出资金较多的还有医药生物、电子、电力设备等行业。 公用事业行业今日上涨0.48%，全天主力资金净流入9731.62万元，该行业所属的个股共131只，今日上 涨的有50只，涨停的有3只；下跌的有69只，跌停的有1只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流 入的个股有48只，其中，净流入资金超5000万元的有5只，净 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the China Securities Public Utilities Index down by 0.39% closing at 2494.68 points and a trading volume of 8.457 billion [1] - Over the past month, the China Securities Public Utilities Index has decreased by 0.01%, increased by 5.61% over the last three months, and has declined by 2.47% year-to-date [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies within the China Securities 800 Index, categorized into 11 primary and 35 secondary industries [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Public Utilities Index include: Changjiang Electric Power (16.87%), China Nuclear Power (10.59%), and Three Gorges Energy (8.41%) among others [1] - The market composition of the index shows that 84.49% of the holdings are from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 15.51% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - The public utilities sector accounts for 100.00% of the index's holdings [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, but can change with temporary adjustments due to events affecting the index [2] - Special events such as delisting, mergers, or changes in industry classification will prompt corresponding adjustments to the index samples [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [44]. Core Insights - The public utility index has seen a decline of 1.9% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.0 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 industries. Year-to-date, the index has decreased by 1.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.4 percentage points, ranking 22nd [9][11]. - Among the sub-sectors, three have increased: heating services by 0.4%, photovoltaic power generation by 0.3%, and gas by 0.1%. Conversely, four sub-sectors have decreased: hydropower by 4.4%, thermal power by 1.9%, comprehensive energy services by 0.6%, and wind power by 0.5% [11][14]. - The report highlights significant industry news, including the issuance of 216 million renewable energy green power certificates in April 2025, a 23.94% increase month-on-month, covering 104,300 renewable energy projects [37][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 5, the public utility index has decreased by 1.9% in the last two weeks, ranking 27th among 31 industries. Year-to-date, it has decreased by 1.1%, ranking 22nd [9][11]. 2. Industry Valuation - The public utility sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 18.4 times. The photovoltaic sector has a P/E ratio of 740.3 times, while thermal power is at 11.9 times [17][18]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The average price of Shenxi Yulin thermal coal (Q6000) is 560 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous value. The average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 612 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [29][32]. 4. Key Industry News - The report discusses the promotion of renewable energy and the establishment of a modern electricity business environment, emphasizing the construction of a new power system [40][41]. 5. Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The report suggests focusing on companies like Xin'ao Co., Ltd. and Huadian International, given the ongoing developments in the gas and thermal power sectors [39][41]. 6. Important Company Announcements - Notable announcements include Xinjiang Li New Energy's agreement with Xinjiang Energy Group and Nanfang Energy's planned investment exceeding 3 billion yuan in 2025 [38].

Group 1 - The liquidity of the green power ETF showed a turnover of 3.17% with a transaction volume of 10.83 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month reached 19.32 million yuan [3] - The green power ETF experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 65.56 million yuan over the past three months, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The green power ETF's share increased by 2 million shares in the past week, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index tracked by the green power ETF is currently 18.62 times, which is below 85.71% of the historical data over the past three years, indicating a historical low valuation [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Power Index account for 58.12% of the total, including major companies such as Yangtze Power, China Nuclear Power, and Three Gorges Energy [3] Group 3 - The recent policy notification regarding the orderly promotion of green electricity direct connection is the first national-level policy to permit and regulate green electricity direct connection, which aims to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy and reduce costs for end users [4] - The green electricity direct connection projects will require investors to bear transmission and distribution costs, but can also lower operational costs by reducing grid connection capacity requirements [4] - Investors can leverage the corresponding green power ETF linked fund (017057) to seize investment opportunities in this sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The successful grid connection of the 200 MW fish-solar complementary photovoltaic project by State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) marks a significant advancement in the development of the renewable energy base in Shandong's saline-alkali land [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project has a total investment of 820 million yuan and an installed capacity of 200 MW, covering an area of approximately 6,000 acres, with the construction of a 220 kV booster station [1]. - The project utilizes a single-axis tracking system, which is expected to increase electricity generation by approximately 6% compared to fixed supports, and includes the installation of 340,000 photovoltaic modules [1]. - It is projected to provide 338 million kWh of clean electricity annually, saving 110,000 tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 280,000 tons, sufficient to meet the annual electricity needs of 330,000 households [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The project employs innovative technologies such as N-type TOPCon photovoltaic modules, single-axis intelligent tracking supports, and an intelligent operation and maintenance platform to effectively convert saline-alkali wasteland into an ecological economic zone [2]. - The integration of photovoltaic power generation with aquaculture creates a multi-dimensional development model, reducing land leasing and infrastructure costs while forming a diversified profit system through power generation, fishery value addition, and job creation [2]. Group 3: Future Development - The successful implementation of the project signifies a leap in SPIC's comprehensive development capabilities in saline-alkali land, with plans to accelerate the construction of additional projects in the Shandong region [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the electricity and utilities sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the near term [4][8]. Core Views - The report highlights the recent policy initiatives aimed at promoting green electricity direct connections, which are expected to enhance the consumption of renewable energy and improve the overall market dynamics for the sector [3][36]. - The overall market performance of the sector has been subdued, with the industry index experiencing a slight decline of 0.18% during the reporting period [2][11]. - The report suggests that the long-term demand for electricity will remain stable, driven by the need for peak load regulation and supply assurance [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The industry valuation as of May 30, 2025, shows a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 17.29, slightly down from 17.3 the previous week, and a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.73, unchanged from the prior week [1][24]. - The sector's performance ranked 19th among 31 major industry categories, with individual segments like thermal power and hydropower showing varied performance [2][11]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The National Energy Administration reported 4,415 new renewable energy projects added in April 2025, with a significant focus on solar and wind energy [3][36]. - Recent government policies aim to facilitate the direct supply of green electricity to consumers, mandating that at least 60% of renewable energy generated must be used on-site [3][36]. - The report emphasizes the importance of market mechanisms for carbon emissions and water rights, which are expected to enhance resource allocation efficiency [3][38]. 3. Key Data Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) was reported at 613 CNY per ton, with no weekly change [44]. - The trading volume of green electricity certificates for wind and solar power reached 20.37 and 25.27 million certificates, respectively, during the reporting period [47][49]. - The report also tracks the carbon emissions trading data, with a total transaction volume of 65.9 million tons on May 30, 2025, at an average price of 68.69 CNY per ton [50][51].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that spot electricity prices may have bottomed out, leading to improvements in both valuation and performance [1] - The report highlights the increasing scarcity of large hydropower assets as the development of hydropower in China has largely been completed, except for the Tibet region [41][46] - The report anticipates that the approval of nuclear power projects will continue, with an expected national installed capacity of 110 million kilowatts by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of +11% from 2024 [3] - The report notes that the share of renewable energy in installed capacity has exceeded 40%, with significant growth expected in wind and solar power by 2030 [60][63] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - In northern regions, the higher proportion of renewable energy leads to better scarcity of thermal power, making prices easier to rise than to fall [3] - Recent increases in spot electricity prices in southern regions are attributed to previously low thermal power prices, which have severely impacted power plant profitability [3] Hydropower - The report states that the hydropower market in China has a relatively low electricity market share, with stable prices during the 13th Five-Year Plan and a slight increase expected during the 14th Five-Year Plan [46] - The scarcity of large hydropower assets is expected to become more pronounced as development enters its later stages [41] Renewable Energy - The report suggests that new policies for renewable energy will focus more on stabilizing electricity prices and controlling installed capacity growth, potentially leading to a slowdown in installation rates [3] - The report highlights that the marketization of renewable energy is progressing, but electricity prices are under pressure [64] Nuclear Power - Since 2019, the approval of nuclear power projects has become normalized, with over 10 units approved annually for four consecutive years [3] - The report projects that by 2030, the national installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 110 million kilowatts, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3] Financial Performance of Major Hydropower Companies - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major hydropower companies, indicating stable revenue and profit margins, with a focus on improving debt structures and reducing financing costs [54][55] - The dividend payouts of major hydropower companies have been steadily increasing, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [59]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1][4] Core Insights - Northern thermal power shows resilience with significant profit growth, while hydropower maintains stable performance. Green energy faces pressure on earnings due to dual impacts of wind conditions and electricity prices, while nuclear power's profitability is affected by electricity pricing [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Northern Thermal Power - The report highlights that the profitability of northern thermal power plants is growing faster than that of southern plants, with a median net profit growth rate of 8% for national thermal power companies in Q1 2025. The median PE ratios for thermal power companies have decreased from 15.7 in Q1 2023 to 10.4 in Q1 2025, indicating a declining market focus on this sector [8][10][9] - The report anticipates a recovery in thermal power performance in Q2 2025 following a significant drop in electricity generation in Q1 2025 due to a warm winter [10][14] Hydropower - Hydropower companies have shown strong earnings growth, with a median net profit growth rate of 26% in Q1 2025, driven by optimized water storage and scheduling. The median PE ratios for hydropower companies have fluctuated, reaching 18.8 in Q1 2024 before slightly declining to 18.1 in Q1 2025 [19][20][22] - The report notes that the El Niño phenomenon is expected to positively influence water inflow during the main flood season in 2024, while the situation for 2025 remains uncertain as the climate shifts to a La Niña phase [19][20] Green Energy - Green energy companies are experiencing a decline in net profit growth, with median growth rates of -12% in 2024 and -4% in Q1 2025. The sector is facing challenges from falling electricity prices and poor wind conditions, leading to a situation where revenue is increasing but profits are not [2][4] - The report predicts a recovery in green energy performance in 2025, with an expected median net profit growth rate of around 12% as wind utilization hours improve [2][4] Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is experiencing mixed performance, with major companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power facing different challenges. The report indicates that profitability for China Nuclear Power is expected to decline significantly in 2024 due to accounting policy changes and tax implications, while China General Nuclear Power's profits are only slightly increasing despite new capacity coming online [2][4][5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electricity market in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of the New Energy 136 Document and the acceleration of the spot market, which signifies a shift towards market-oriented electricity pricing [1][1]. Key Points and Arguments - The New Energy 136 Document, effective from June 1, marks a significant step in the marketization of the electricity sector, particularly for new energy sources, which now account for the second-largest share of electricity generation [1][1]. - Over ten provinces have begun long-cycle trial operations of the electricity spot market this year, enhancing the supply-demand relationship in electricity pricing [1][1]. - The introduction of the spot market has led to increased price volatility, with some pilot provinces like Shandong and Shanxi experiencing intraday price fluctuations exceeding 50% [2][2]. - As renewable energy capacity continues to grow, it is expected that more trading cycles will be dominated by renewable sources, which will lower overall price levels. However, traditional thermal power will still play a crucial role during periods of insufficient renewable output, maintaining higher prices during those times [3][3]. - The volatility in price curves is leading to a compression of trading cycles, pushing for weekly, multi-day, and even daily trading to become mainstream [4][4]. - The comprehensive electricity price for thermal power has risen during periods of declining coal prices, indicating a shift towards a model where thermal power is not just about generation but also about price regulation [4][4]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on national comprehensive power companies and northern thermal power companies with performance elasticity, such as: - Jintou Energy - Datang Power (H) - Huaneng International (H+A) - Huadian International (H+A) - Continued recommendations for Waneng Power, Sheneng Co., Huaneng Hydropower, and Guodian Power [4][4]. - For green energy, companies like Xintian Green Energy, Datang New Energy, and Longyuan Power (H) are highlighted. - In the hydropower sector, recommended companies include Yangtze Power, Chuan Investment Energy, Guotou Power, and Huaneng Hydropower [4][4]. Risks - The report outlines several risks associated with the marketization of electricity trading, including: - Price volatility risks due to market fluctuations - Risks from variations in wind and water resources - Significant increases in thermal coal prices - Delays in resource approval for new energy projects - Risks from macroeconomic downturns affecting electricity demand [4][4].