Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 34.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.498 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.98% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 43.9% year-on-year to 1.28 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.6 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11 and 10 times [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 34.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.42 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company’s sales volume of cement and clinker was 60.27 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, while the aggregate sales volume reached 14.3 million tons, an increase of 9% year-on-year [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong presence in overseas markets, with operations in 12 countries, including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and several African nations, and has a cumulative operational and under-construction capacity exceeding 25 million tons [12]. - The company plans capital expenditures of approximately 13.3 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on aggregate and overseas cement capacity, as well as alternative fuel construction [12]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for the aggregate business was 47.92%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points year-on-year, with an expected average price of 39 yuan per ton for aggregates in 2024 [12]. - The company achieved asset disposal gains of 750 million yuan in 2024, which significantly contributed to its performance [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results, showing mixed performance with revenue growth but declines in net profit and adjusted net profit, while maintaining a strong return on equity (ROE) of 8.16% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 34.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.42 billion yuan, down 12.5%, and adjusted net profit was 1.78 billion yuan, down 23.2% [1] - Q4 results showed revenue of 9.5 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 43.9% to 1.28 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit rose by 44.6% to 720 million yuan [1] - The company’s EBITDA margin for the cement business decreased to 44% as revenue contribution from cement fell to 55% [1] Business Segments - The company’s clinker sales in 2024 were 60.27 million tons, a decrease of 3%, with domestic sales down 12% to 44.07 million tons, while overseas sales increased by 37% to 16.2 million tons [1] - The company’s aggregate revenue reached 5.642 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 14.3 million tons, while concrete revenue was 8.42 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [2] - Overseas revenue surged by 47% to 7.984 billion yuan, contributing 23% to total revenue, with new projects signed in Nigeria and Brazil [2] Cost Management - The company implemented cost reduction measures, achieving a 6.6% decrease in domestic cement costs, with a reduction of 15 yuan per ton [1] - The overall gross margin for the company was 24.7%, down 2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.1%, down 1.1 percentage points [3] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 37.116 billion yuan, 38.589 billion yuan, and 40.660 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.790 billion yuan, 3.048 billion yuan, and 3.488 billion yuan [4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in overseas and non-cement business expansions, despite ongoing domestic demand challenges in the cement sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved revenue growth despite a declining industry demand, with a 1.36% increase in revenue to 34.217 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit fell by 12.52% to 2.416 billion yuan [1][2]. Industry Overview - The overall demand for cement is declining due to continued downturns in real estate investment and slowing infrastructure investment, leading to a 9.5% decrease in cement production to 1.825 billion tons in 2024 [2]. - The company's revenue growth is notable against this backdrop, indicating resilience in its business model [2]. Business Performance - The company has successfully diversified its operations beyond cement, with significant contributions from concrete, aggregates, and environmental materials, achieving vertical integration within the industry [2]. - In 2024, the company sold 14.3 million tons of aggregates (up 9%), 31.81 million cubic meters of ready-mixed concrete (up 17%), and processed 4.41 million tons of waste in its environmental business [2]. International Expansion - The company accelerated its international expansion, signing contracts for cement and aggregate projects in Nigeria and Brazil, resulting in overseas production capacity exceeding 22.5 million tons per year, an 8% increase [3]. - Overseas cement sales reached 16.2 million tons, a 37% increase, contributing 7.984 billion yuan in revenue, a 47% increase [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 5.90%, 5.50%, and 5.31% for 2025-2027, with adjusted revenue forecasts of 36.236 billion yuan, 38.229 billion yuan, and 40.259 billion yuan for those years [3]. - The expected net profit for 2025-2027 is 2.543 billion yuan, 3.016 billion yuan, and 3.255 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.1, 9.3, and 8.6 [3].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 34.22 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 43.9% to 1.28 billion yuan [1] - The overall demand for cement in China is under pressure in 2024, with a significant decline in domestic sales volume by approximately 12% [1] Group 2 - The company's overseas revenue reached 7.98 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47%, with overseas cement sales volume growing by 37% to 16.2 million tons [1] - The company’s aggregate sales volume increased by 9% to 143 million tons in 2024, with a slight decrease in average price but an increase in gross margin [2] - The company has signed agreements for new projects in Nigeria and Brazil, which are expected to enhance overseas performance [2] Group 3 - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 2.318 billion yuan, 2.671 billion yuan, and 2.789 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the adjusted profit forecasts [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue growth against the trend, with cement and related businesses, as well as overseas income, supporting its performance. In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 34.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.52% to 2.416 billion yuan [3][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Despite a decline in overall industry demand, the company managed to achieve revenue growth. The cement production in the industry fell by 9.5% year-on-year to 1.825 billion tons, yet the company's revenue increased by 1.36% [5]. Business Segments - The company's "Cement+" business has steadily improved, becoming a significant contributor to profits. In 2024, external aggregate sales reached 14.3 million tons, up 9%, and ready-mixed concrete sales were 31.81 million cubic meters, up 17% [5]. International Expansion - The company accelerated its international layout, signing contracts for cement and aggregate projects in Nigeria and Brazil. By the end of 2024, overseas production capacity exceeded 22.5 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Overseas cement sales reached 16.2 million tons, up 37%, generating revenue of 7.984 billion yuan, a 47% increase [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth despite ongoing market challenges, with projected revenue growth rates of 5.90%, 5.50%, and 5.31% for 2025-2027. The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 2.543 billion yuan and 3.016 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11.1, 9.3, and 8.6 for the next three years, compared to an average valuation of 15.6 times P/E for comparable companies [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady overseas expansion while domestic profitability is expected to stabilize and recover [1]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 34.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.5% [4]. - The report highlights the successful expansion of overseas operations, particularly in Africa, with a significant increase in overseas cement sales by 37% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of 33.76 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11% [2]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.58 billion yuan, representing a 7% increase from 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.24 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.5 [2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s cement clinker sales volume for 2024 is expected to be 60.27 million tons, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, while overseas cement sales are projected at 16.2 million tons, an increase of 37% [4]. - The average selling price of cement clinker is forecasted to be 312 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.3 yuan year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin for cement clinker is expected to be 73 yuan per ton, down 8.1% year-on-year, but is anticipated to improve in Q4 2024 due to domestic price recovery [4]. Strategic Developments - The company has successfully launched several projects in Africa, including a new cement clinker production line in Mozambique and expansions in Zambia and South Africa, contributing to a total overseas operational capacity exceeding 25 million tons [4]. - The report indicates that the company’s integrated strategy is progressing steadily, with aggregate and commercial concrete revenues increasing by 5.2% and 10.0% year-on-year, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 17.67 CNY, while the current price is 12.97 CNY [5][11]. Core Views - The company's 2024 annual report meets expectations, with domestic cement sales declining year-on-year but offset by strong overseas growth. Both domestic and international cement profitability are on a recovery path [2][11]. - The company achieved a revenue of 34.217 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.416 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.5% [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 33,757 million CNY - 2024A: 34,217 million CNY (+1.4%) - 2025E: 35,375 million CNY (+3.4%) - 2026E: 38,445 million CNY (+8.7%) - 2027E: 40,458 million CNY (+5.2%) [4][13] - **Net Profit (attributable to parent)**: - 2023A: 2,762 million CNY - 2024A: 2,416 million CNY (-12.5%) - 2025E: 3,047 million CNY (+26.1%) - 2026E: 3,527 million CNY (+15.7%) - 2027E: 3,875 million CNY (+9.9%) [4][13] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 1.33 CNY - 2024A: 1.16 CNY - 2025E: 1.47 CNY - 2026E: 1.70 CNY - 2027E: 1.86 CNY [4][13] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 9.5% - 2024A: 8.0% - 2025E: 9.5% - 2026E: 10.4% - 2027E: 10.8% [4][13] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is 26,965 million CNY, with a total share capital of 2,079 million shares [6]. - The stock has traded within a range of 10.10 to 15.87 CNY over the past 52 weeks [6]. Industry Insights - The company’s cement and clinker sales for 2024 are projected at 60.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, while overseas sales are expected to reach 16.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38% [11]. - The report highlights that the company is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with a projected average price of 312 CNY per ton for cement in 2024 and a gross profit of 73 CNY per ton [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.2 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.217 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.52% to 2.416 billion CNY [2][3]. - The domestic cement revenue faced pressure due to insufficient demand, while overseas revenue saw significant growth, increasing by 46.79% to 7.984 billion CNY [2][9]. - The company's integrated strategy has shown significant results, with non-cement business revenue accounting for 45% of total revenue, contributing to stable performance [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 24.69%, down 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 8.63% [3]. - The quarterly net profit growth rates were -28.43%, -41.45%, -40.17%, and 43.94%, with Q4 showing a significant increase primarily due to asset disposal gains [3]. Revenue Breakdown - The main cement business generated 18.031 billion CNY in revenue, a decrease of 1.64% year-on-year, with sales volume around 57.02 million tons [2]. - The average selling price of cement was approximately 316.21 CNY per ton, with a cost of 241.11 CNY per ton, leading to a gross profit of 75.10 CNY per ton [2]. International Expansion - The company accelerated its international expansion, signing contracts for new cement production capacities in Nigeria and Brazil, and completed several new production lines in Mozambique and Zambia [9]. - By the end of 2024, the company's overseas operational and under-construction cement capacity exceeded 25 million tons, ranking third nationally in clinker capacity [9]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 36.352 billion CNY, 39.697 billion CNY, and 43.037 billion CNY, with expected net profits of 2.425 billion CNY, 2.696 billion CNY, and 3.047 billion CNY respectively [11].

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 华新水泥（600801） 证券研究报告 非水泥板块量增带动业绩贡献提升，海外连攻数城，利润释放正当时 公司 24 年全年实现归母净利润 24.16 亿元，Q4 扣非利润环比显著修复 公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入/归母净利润 342.17/24.16 亿元，同比+1.36%/-12.52%， 全年实现扣非归母净利润 17.84 亿元，同比-23.15%，非流动性资产处置损益所致（7.4 个亿）。 其中 Q4 单季度实现收入/归母净利润 94.98/12.78 亿元，同比-0.98%/+43.94%，扣非归母净利 润 7.21 亿元，同比+44.62%。 非水泥板块量增带动业绩贡献提升，海外连攻数城 24 年公司水泥及熟料业务收入同比-2.5%达 187.9 亿元，水泥熟料销量同比-3%达 6027 万吨， 主要受国内水泥销量下滑较多所致，测算吨均价/吨成本分别为 311.8/239.0 元，同比分别 +0.4/+8.4 元，最终实现吨毛利 72.9 元，同比下滑 8.1 元。受益于去年四季度水泥涨价行情， 24Q4 公司收入/归母净利润环比分别+12%/+213%达 95/1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 34.22 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.42 billion yuan for the year 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of +1.36% and -12.52% respectively [1][5]. - The non-cement segment has become a significant profit growth driver, contributing 45% to total revenue and 48% to gross profit, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points and 3.6 percentage points respectively [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas operations, with a total overseas revenue of 7.98 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 47% and accounting for 23.3% of total revenue [3][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 24.69% for the year, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin stood at 8.63%, down by 0.90 percentage points [4]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to approximately 13.3 billion yuan in 2025, focusing on aggregate and overseas cement capacity [2][5]. - The company’s cash dividend for the year was 960 million yuan, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40%, which corresponds to a current dividend yield of 4.09% [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 3.14 billion yuan for 2025 and 3.55 billion yuan for 2026, with an expected net profit of 4.1 billion yuan for 2027 [5][7]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 35.87 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.82% [7][8].