2025 年 4 月 1 日 公司研究 平台交易气量快速增长，拟私有化新奥能源提升产业协同 ——新奥股份（600803.SH）2024 年年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年公司实现营业收入 1358 亿元，同比 -5.5%；实现归母净利润 44.9 亿元，同比-36.6%；实现核心利润 51.4 亿元，同 比-19.4%。其中 Q4 单季度公司实现营业收入 371 亿元，同比-22.4%，环比 +16.9%；实现归母净利润 10 亿元，同比-74.9%，环比+4.2%。 点评： 天然气需求重回增长态势，24 年公司天然气销量持续增长：2024 年，中国经济 运行稳中有进，叠加"双碳"政策推动能源结构优化，天然气需求重回快速增长 态势，在城市燃气、工业燃料、发电和化工用气等增长带动下，全国天然气表观 消费量 4260.5 亿方，同比增长 8%。公司积极把握市场发展机遇，以需求、资 源、设施、交易和风控五大业务支点为支撑，持续做大气量规模。2024 年公司 实现天然气总销售量 392 亿方，同比+1.4%。其中零售气、平台交易气销售量分 别为 262 亿方、55.7 亿方，同比分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - Leading gas companies have released their 2024 annual reports, indicating that price differentials and connection numbers meet expectations, while gas volumes are slightly lower than anticipated due to a warm winter. The growth of dual business segments shows divergence. Looking ahead to 2025, supply is expected to be ample, with cost optimization for gas companies and a continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms alongside increasing demand [1]. Price Tracking - The overall gas prices in Europe and the U.S. remain stable, with a continued price inversion between domestic and international markets. As of March 28, 2025, the weekly price changes for various gas markets are as follows: U.S. HH -1.4%, Europe TTF -5.1%, East Asia JKM -2.2%, China LNG ex-factory -0.6%, and China LNG CIF -7.4%. The domestic and international price inversion has decreased to 0.2 yuan per cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Warm weather has led to a slight increase in total gas supply, with a weekly rise of 0.1% to 1,108 billion cubic feet per day, and a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Total demand has increased by 3.4% week-on-week to 1,077 billion cubic feet per day, but is down 5.5% year-on-year. The residential and commercial sectors saw a significant increase in consumption, while industrial consumption remained stable [3]. - European gas prices have decreased by 5.1% due to ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In 2024, European gas consumption is projected at 4,387 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. The supply from Europe has decreased by 17% week-on-week, with significant reductions in inventory consumption [4]. Market Demand and Pricing - Domestic gas prices have decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, with apparent consumption in January and February 2025 down 1.2% year-on-year to 717 billion cubic meters. The production has increased by 3.9% to 433 billion cubic meters, while imports have decreased by 8.1% to 284 billion cubic meters. The average import prices for LNG and gas have also shown a downward trend [5]. Pricing Progress - As of February 2025, 60% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter. The price differential for leading city gas companies is between 0.53 and 0.54 yuan per cubic meter, indicating a potential for further price adjustments [6]. Important Events - Starting February 10, 2025, a 15% tariff has been imposed on LNG originating from the U.S., yet imported U.S. LNG still maintains a price advantage of 0.27 to 0.74 yuan per cubic meter in coastal regions. Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue to impact the market. Additionally, New Hope Group plans to privatize New Hope Energy with a transaction value of 59.924 billion HKD, which is expected to enhance earnings per share post-acquisition [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of more than 15% over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 135.91 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 5.51% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.49 billion RMB, down 36.64% year-on-year [1][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.03 RMB per share (before tax) [1]. - The privatization of Xin'ao Energy is expected to enhance the company's earnings per share (EPS) by nearly 7% to 1.56 RMB per share, with a projected net profit increase of 81% post-privatization [3]. - The company has committed to a future cash dividend plan, with minimum cash dividends of 0.91 RMB, 1.03 RMB, and 1.14 RMB per share from 2023 to 2025, and a commitment to distribute at least 50% of core profits as dividends from 2026 to 2028 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the total gas sales volume reached 39.22 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with platform trading gas and retail gas volumes growing by 10.3% and 4.2%, respectively [2]. - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.3% by the end of 2024, marking a continuous decline for four years and the lowest level in nearly a decade [2]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 143.0 billion RMB, 151.1 billion RMB, and 158.6 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.35 billion RMB, 5.99 billion RMB, and 6.62 billion RMB [4][6]. Dividend and Cash Flow - The company reported a free cash flow of 5.82 billion RMB in 2024, exceeding the planned dividend payout of 3.16 billion RMB [4]. - The current dividend yield stands at 5.2%, indicating significant long-term investment value [4].

公用事业/燃气Ⅱ 新奥股份（600803.SH） 私有化港股夯实一体化经营，高分红回报投资者 2025 年 03 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 股价走势图 证书编号：S0790520020003 私有化港股夯实一体化经营，高分红回报投资者，维持"买入"评级 公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 1358.4 亿元，同比-5.5%；实现归 母净利润44.9亿元，同比-36.6%；实现扣非后归母净利润37.1亿元，同比+50.9%； 实现归母核心利润 51.4 亿元，同比-19.4%。单 Q4 来看，实现营业收入 371.3 亿 元，环比+16.9%；实现归母净利润 10 亿元，环比+4.2%；实现扣非后归母净利 润 7.7 亿元，环比-19.6%；实现归母核心利润 13.3 亿元，环比+18.7%。考虑到 批发气量价齐跌，且不考虑私有化对业绩影响，我们下调 2025-2026 年盈利预测 并新增 2027 年盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润 51.1/57.8/60.7 亿元 （2025-2026 年前值为 6 ...

证券研究报告 新奥股份 (600803 CH) 盈利探底蓄力，私有化注入新动能 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 燃气及分销 | 新奥股份发布年报与私有化方案：2024 年实现营收 1,359 亿元（yoy-5.5%）， 核心利润 51.43 亿元（yoy-19.4%），核心利润低于华泰预测（55.59 亿元）， 主要是基础设施运营和工程施工安装利润贡献不及预期；公司拟以现金+换 股方式私有化新奥能源，我们认为此次重组意味着新奥正在加速天然气产业 链整合，公司中长期价值有望得到释放。公司持续兑现分红承诺，2024 年 DPS 1.03 元，当前股息率 5.2%。维持"买入"评级。 平台交易气：中长期资源池扩容，预计 25-26 年核心利润触底反弹 2024 年平台交易气量 55.7 亿方（yoy+10.3%），略高于华泰预测，其中 Q4 气量 yoy+9.2%、国外增速好于国内。公司自主资源快速扩大，2024 年达 到 90.2 亿方（yoy+45%），占公司总销售气量的比例达到 23%（yoy ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on privatizing its Hong Kong shares to strengthen its integrated operations and enhance dividend returns to investors [1] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 135.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.49 billion yuan, down 36.6% year-on-year [1] - The company has a comprehensive natural gas industry chain layout, which highlights its integrated business advantages [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 135.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 4.49 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 36.6% [4] - The core profit attributable to shareholders was 5.14 billion yuan, down 19.4% year-on-year [1] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.11 billion, 5.78 billion, and 6.07 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 13.2%, and 5% [1] Business Segment Performance - The platform trading gas sales volume reached 5.568 billion cubic meters in 2024, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year [2] - Retail gas sales volume was 26.2 billion cubic meters, up 4.2% year-on-year, while wholesale gas sales volume decreased by 12.1% to 7.451 billion cubic meters [2] - The company’s retail gas selling price was 2.57 yuan per cubic meter, down 7.1% year-on-year, while the wholesale gas selling price was 3.17 yuan per cubic meter, down 7.8% year-on-year [2] Dividend Policy - The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 70.41% in 2024, which is a rise of 30.86 percentage points compared to 2023 [3] - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2026-2028 is set to be no less than 50% of the core profit attributable to shareholders for each year [3] Future Outlook - The Zhoushan receiving station's processing capacity is expected to increase, with the third phase of the project anticipated to be operational in the second half of 2025 [3] - The company plans to enhance its upstream and downstream integration through the privatization of New Energy [3]

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 143842 | 135910 | 146822 | 153021 | 171257 | | 同比（%） | (6.70) | (5.51) | 8.03 | 4.22 | 11.92 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 7091 | 4493 | 5147 | 5896 | 6844 | | 同比（%） | 21.34 | (36.64) | 14.56 | 14.54 | 16.08 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.29 | 1.45 | 1.66 | 1.90 | 2.21 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 8.71 | 13.74 | 12.00 | 10.47 | 9.02 | [关键词： Table_Tag#业绩符合预期 ] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期、安全经营风险，汇率波动。 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·燃 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 23.21 CNY, while the current price is 19.94 CNY [2][6][12]. Core Views - The company's platform trading gas and retail gas volumes are expected to grow steadily, with enhanced vertical integration and highlighted dividend value [3][12]. - The report indicates that the company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 135.91 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.49 billion CNY, down 36.6% year-on-year [5][12]. - The report emphasizes the expected strengthening of the company's upstream and downstream integration advantages following the proposed privatization of New Hope Energy, which is anticipated to enhance overall operational efficiency [12]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 143.84 billion CNY and a net profit of 7.09 billion CNY, with a projected decline in revenue for 2024 to 135.91 billion CNY and a significant drop in net profit to 4.49 billion CNY [5][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.45 CNY, with a gradual increase to 2.28 CNY by 2027 [5][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease from 30.0% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2024, before gradually recovering to 21.5% by 2027 [5][13]. Operational Insights - The report highlights that in Q4 2024, the company's platform trading gas volume reached 1.51 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [12]. - Retail gas volume in Q4 2024 was 7.38 billion cubic meters, up 2.7% year-on-year, with notable growth in commercial and industrial sectors [12]. - The Zhoushan receiving station's throughput significantly improved in 2024, with a total unloading volume of 2.41 million tons, marking a 53.4% increase year-on-year [12].

公司拟私有化新奥能源，有助于A 股平台做大做强。新奥股份拟以新能香港作为要约人，以 1:2.9427 换 股比例发行H 股以及按照 24.50 港元/股支付现金付款，H 股股份及现金付款理论总价值约80 港元/股。 本次交易完成后，新奥能源将成为新能香港全资子公司。我们认为，公司私有化新奥能源后将进一步打 通天然气上下游，有助于上市公司持续经营及分红能力。 盈利预测与投资评级。我们预计公司2025~2027 年公司归母利润分别为52亿元、61 亿元、74 亿元， EPS 分别为1.68 元、1.97 元、2.39 元。参考可比公司估值水平，给予其2025 年12-13 倍PE，对应合理价 值区间为20.16-21.84 元，维持"优于大市"投资评级。 风险提示。项目建设进展不及预期；产品价格大幅波动；汇率大幅波动。 天然气销售业务：平台交易气销量同比增长。天然气平台交易气业务方面，2024 年，平台交易气销售 气量达 55.68 亿方，同比增长 10.3%，其中海外平台交易气销售气量达 21.67 亿方，国内平台交易气销 售气量达 34.01 亿方，主要覆盖浙江、广东、山东、重庆、江苏、河北等省份。天然气零售 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the privatization of Xin'ao Energy, which will enhance its operational capabilities and shareholder returns [8] - The company's natural gas sales volume increased by 10.3% year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be 1.68, 1.97, and 2.39 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12-13 times for 2025 [8] Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 135.91 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.51% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.493 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36.6% [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 14.0% in 2024 to 17.3% by 2027 [8] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 132.49 billion yuan in 2024 to 223.81 billion yuan by 2027 [11]