摄像｜刘思成、朱晨宇 视频制作｜唐子涵、刘思成、朱晨宇 9月22日，2025"一带一路"媒体合作论坛中外媒体联合采访团走进山西汾阳，参观并打卡汾酒集 团。在举杯之间，外媒嘉宾不仅沉醉于绵甜清香的口感，更纷纷表示希望这缕酒香早日飘进自己的国 家，并期望汾酒可以和自己的国家签订互惠合约。 协调｜赵梦阳 出镜｜唐子涵 ...

Core Insights - The event highlighted the rich history and cultural significance of Chinese liquor, particularly Fenjiu, during the "Belt and Road" media cooperation forum [2] Group 1: Cultural Significance - The media delegation visited the Fenjiu Museum to explore the origins of a thousand-year-old liquor culture [2] - Participants experienced traditional brewing techniques in local workshops, emphasizing craftsmanship and skill [2] - The event showcased the deep-rooted heritage of Chinese liquor culture, with foreign guests expressing admiration for Fenjiu [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Meituan Flash Purchase has launched the first full-chain authenticity assurance system in the instant retail industry for liquor, focusing on genuine product guarantees and enhancing consumer trust in purchasing liquor [1] - Meituan Flash Purchase collaborates with over ten leading liquor brands, including Moutai, Fenjiu, Yanghe, and others, to promote intellectual property protection in the liquor industry and create a reliable shopping experience for consumers [1] - The initiative includes multiple service measures in pre-sale, post-sale, and delivery stages to ensure a healthy and trustworthy liquor ecosystem [1] Group 2 - Recently, Meituan Flash Purchase has begun piloting a "liquor authentication" service in select cities, partnering with authoritative testing organizations to provide visual authentication services for premium liquors [1] - The platform plans to connect with the official authentication resource database of liquor brands, establishing an online process for offline genuine product verification [1] - Consumers can utilize a 72-hour authentication service after receiving their products, with brands providing testing results that seamlessly integrate with the platform's compensation system to alleviate concerns about product authenticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expanding its grain base construction strategy by establishing a significant presence in Lishu County, Jilin Province, which is crucial for its high-quality sorghum supply for liquor production [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - Since 2009, the company has integrated grain base construction into its development strategy, selecting high-quality grain-producing regions across the country to establish its own raw grain bases [1] - Lishu County is a key location in the company's northeastern sorghum map, benefiting from fertile black soil and favorable climatic conditions for sorghum growth [1] Group 2: Production Quality - The sorghum produced in Lishu County is characterized by full grains, high bulk density, and rich starch content, which contribute to higher yield rates and superior liquor quality [1] - The company employs a comprehensive quality control system throughout the entire production chain, from land selection to storage, ensuring uniform quality of raw materials [1] Group 3: Agricultural Impact - The establishment of raw grain bases has led to the development of over 1.5 million mu (approximately 100,000 hectares) across regions including Shanxi, Jilin, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia, promoting local agricultural economic growth and increasing farmers' income [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a destocking cycle, facing multiple pressures from pricing, demand, and policy, prompting companies to actively respond to market conditions [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3821.83 points, down 0.18% on September 23 [1] - The liquor sector index closed at 2263.61 points, down 1.15%, with 20 liquor stocks declining [1] - Major liquor companies experienced the following stock price changes: - Kweichow Moutai: closed at 1447.42 CNY/share, down 0.41% [1] - Wuliangye: closed at 122.19 CNY/share, down 0.25% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu: closed at 193.81 CNY/share, down 1.12% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao: closed at 132.61 CNY/share, down 0.73% [1] - Yanghe Brewery: closed at 69.32 CNY/share, down 0.66% [1] Company Response - Huaxin Securities indicates that liquor companies are actively addressing challenges related to channels, organization, and sales in response to the pressures from the destocking cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with a notable decline in performance among many companies, particularly in the white liquor segment, as evidenced by recent financial reports and changing consumer preferences [1][3][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Among 20 listed liquor companies, only 6, including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, reported growth, while 15 experienced declines, with some showing significant drops in net profit [1]. - Moutai, the industry leader, has seen its growth rate fall to single digits for the first time in nearly a decade, with the price of its 53-degree Feitian Moutai dropping nearly one-third in the past year and close to 50% over the last two years [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Trends - The overall liquor production has been declining for eight consecutive years, dropping from 13.58 million tons in 2016 to 4.14 million tons in 2024, a decrease of over 60% [2]. - The inventory of 20 A-share liquor companies is close to 4 million tons in 2024, indicating that even without production for four years, there would still be sufficient supply in the market [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Young consumers show low acceptance of white liquor, with a survey indicating that only 19% of individuals aged 20 to 35 prefer white liquor, compared to other alcoholic beverages [12]. - The number of large-scale white liquor enterprises in China is projected to decrease to 887 by mid-2025, down by over 100 from the previous year [3]. Group 4: Historical Context and Policy Impact - The white liquor industry has undergone significant changes since the 1989 market liberalization, with various marketing strategies leading to rapid growth until recent policy changes and market dynamics began to impact consumption [7][8]. - The introduction of regulations in 2012 aimed at curbing public spending has drastically reduced the share of government-related consumption in the white liquor market, leading to a significant drop in stock prices and sales [8][9]. Group 5: Industry Adaptation and Future Outlook - In response to changing consumer preferences, liquor companies are launching new products, including low-alcohol and cross-category beverages, to attract younger consumers [12]. - The international market remains a potential growth area, with Chinese liquor exports reaching 8.31 million liters in the first half of 2025, representing only 0.04% of domestic production [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Zhang Kun's contrarian investment strategy in the liquor sector, particularly focusing on leading brands while divesting from weaker ones [2] - In Q2 2025, Zhang Kun significantly increased holdings in top liquor stocks such as Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while reducing exposure to Yanghe Distillery, indicating a preference for strong market leaders [2] - The investment strategy reflects a structural judgment on the liquor industry, emphasizing that only companies with strong pricing power can navigate through economic cycles [2] Group 2 - Zhang Kun articulated his investment philosophy in the quarterly report, which includes three supporting pillars: breaking the linear pessimism mindset, recognizing China's economic potential, and prioritizing the importance of timing over prediction [3] - He argues that the current downturn in real estate is a cyclical bottom rather than a long-term trend, as evidenced by a 2.9% decline in property sales and a 10.7% drop in development investment from January to May [3] - The belief in China's economic resilience underpins the decision to increase holdings in consumer sectors during a downturn, with a long-term view that GDP growth targets are achievable by 2035 [3] Group 3 - Despite the aggressive strategy, the funds managed by Zhang Kun underperformed, with the E Fund Blue Chip Select returning -7.15%, lagging the benchmark by 9.07 percentage points, leading to a decrease in management scale from 608.22 billion to 550.47 billion [4] - The commitment to the liquor sector is seen as a "faith anchor" for Zhang Kun's investment approach, as many investors view these brands as representatives of the consumer sector [4] - A shift towards technology investments could risk undermining investor confidence and lead to a significant reduction in fund size and management fees, making the decision to adjust holdings a critical strategic choice [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales of liquor are expected to face pressure during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, but there are opportunities for bottom recovery in the sector [5] - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector has lagged behind the Shanghai Composite Index, with a decline of 1.48% over the past two weeks [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of the liquor market and suggests that the worst phase for the industry has passed [5] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - In August, the retail sales of tobacco and liquor fell by 2.3% year-on-year, while restaurant income increased by 2.1%, indicating a gradual recovery in dining consumption [5] - The price of Feitian liquor has shown weakness, with a decline in wholesale prices [5] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance over the last month was 1.3%, 4.6% over three months, and 20.8% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's performance of 6.6%, 17.1%, and 40.9% respectively [3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several liquor companies for investment, including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, among others [5][25] - For consumer goods, it suggests focusing on companies like Bai Run Co., Wei Long, and Salted Fish [8][25] Valuation Insights - As of September 19, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage sector is 21.1x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [22] - The report notes that the liquor sub-sector has the highest valuation at 50.42x [22] Focused Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, including Kweichow Moutai with an expected EPS of 74.19 yuan for 2025 and a PE ratio of 19.79 [28]

黑土地种出的清香：追踪汾酒"原生家庭"！ 资料图。 黑土种红粱，粮心育清香：汾酒"第一车间"扎根吉 林梨树县！ 九月 的 吉林省四平市梨树县，大地正披上一袭红装。近十万亩高粱挺拔如戟，穗浪翻涌，将天 际染成一片绯红。这片位于北纬43度、被誉为"耕地中大熊猫"的黑土沃野，如今正以最炽热的 色彩，回应着自然丰饶馈赠。 9月16日，2025"走进汾酒第一车间"活动在这片黑土地上正式启动，这是汾酒继今年七月新疆奇 台基地之行后，再度踏上原粮溯源之旅。专家学者、行业代表们走进田间，聆听风与穗的低 语，共同见证 汾酒 " 从 一粒粮到一滴酒"的品质升华。 为什么汾酒不远千里，将原粮基地布局于梨树县？这要归功于这片土地得天独厚的自然禀赋与 农业生态。 松辽平原是世界四大黑土地之一，而梨树县地处松辽平原腹地，素有"东北粮仓"和"松辽明 珠"美誉，黑土肥沃、粮源丰沛，加之昼夜温差大，极为适合高粱的生长。这里产出的高粱颗粒 饱满、容重高，淀粉含量丰富，为酿造带来了更高的出酒率和更优的酒体品质。 基于此，这里是"好粮酿好酒"的源头，更是汾酒品质宇宙的起点。早在十余年前，汾酒开始在 全国优选优质粮食产区、自建原粮基地之初，梨树县就是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.23% to 3781.61 points, and the liquor sector also faced a downturn, closing down 1.82% at 2248.33 points [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector saw a decline with 20 stocks falling, including major players such as Kweichow Moutai, which closed at 1441.90 CNY per share, down 0.79%, and Wuliangye, which closed at 121.77 CNY per share, down 0.60% [1] - Other notable declines included Shanxi Fenjiu at 193.45 CNY per share, down 1.30%, Luzhou Laojiao at 132.18 CNY per share, down 1.05%, and Yanghe Brewery at 69.09 CNY per share, down 0.99% [1] Future Trends - According to Huashang Securities, the future development trend of the liquor industry is leaning towards lower alcohol content as the consumer base evolves. The industry is shifting towards "quality enhancement, brand influence, cultural expression, and value creation" [1] - Younger consumers are increasingly favoring personalized, lower-alcohol, and enjoyable drinking experiences, as well as "light social" drinking scenarios [1]