) 13:30-14:10 2026年度宏观展望 梁中华-国泰海通证券宏观首席分析师 11月4日 134 北京·中国大饭I ● 16:20-16:50 2026年度基金评价展望 倪韵婷-国泰海通证券基金评价与研究首席分析师 ● 14:10-14:50 2026年度中国权益投资策略展望 方 奕-国泰海通证券策略首席分析师 ● 14:50-15:20 2026年度港股投资策略展望 吴信坤-国泰海通证券海外策略首席分析师 ● 15:20-15:50 2026年度金融工程策略展望 郑雅斌-国泰海通证券金融工程首席分析师 ● 15:50-16:20 2026年IPO市场展望 王政之-国泰海通证券新股研究首席分析师 ● 16:20-16:50 2026年债市展望 唐元懋-国泰海通证券固定收益研究领域负责人 *参会请联系您的国泰海通对口销售报名 研究运营组制作 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注 ...

Core Insights - The forum focuses on key investment topics, analyzing the asset allocation logic for 2025 and the value of ETFs under the context of major power competition [1] - It emphasizes investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, exploring the potential of various ETFs and sharing investment strategies from overseas experts applicable to the Hong Kong market [1] Agenda Highlights - Discussion on asset allocation considerations led by Liu Xin, Assistant General Manager of Minsheng Jia Yin Fund [2] - Exploration of small-cap stocks and enhanced return strategies by Ye Letian and Liu Weilin [2] - Investment logic for innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong stocks presented by Liu Weilin [3] - Opportunities in technology and strategic resources amid major power competition discussed by Lv Yuexian [3] - Outlook on investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market by Lu Yayun [3] - Initial exploration of stock selection strategies for Hong Kong Stock Connect by Luo Lei [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the establishment of a new order in global geopolitics and the challenges and opportunities faced by Chinese enterprises going abroad amidst a multi-polar world [1] Agenda Summary - The conference is hosted by Chen Ximiao, head of the National Research Institute of Policy and Industry at Guotai Junan Securities, featuring several experts discussing various topics related to international relations and economic conditions [2] - Key topics include the changing geopolitical landscape and the trajectory of China-U.S. relations, the current economic situation in Europe and its impact on China-Europe trade relations, challenges and new opportunities for Chinese enterprises in the Middle East, and cooperation between China and Africa under the strategic context of critical minerals [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming 2026 Annual Conference, highlighting key topics and speakers that will address macroeconomic challenges, investment strategies, and technological advancements in various sectors [2][4][12]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Investment Outlook - The conference will feature discussions on China's macroeconomic challenges and strategies to address them, presented by experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences [4]. - A session will focus on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, providing insights into global economic trends [4]. - Investment strategies for 2026 will be explored, including equity investment strategies in China and Hong Kong, as well as financial engineering strategies [4][5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The future of artificial intelligence (AI) and its opportunities will be a key topic, with discussions on AI's impact on various industries [4][5]. - The conference will also cover advancements in humanoid robotics, including product iterations and applications, as well as the development of AI infrastructure in China [5][8]. Group 3: Consumer and Sectoral Insights - The conference will address the transformation of traditional consumption and the rise of new consumption trends, emphasizing the high growth potential in sectors like food and beverage, beauty, and home appliances [12][14]. - Insights into the agricultural sector will be shared, focusing on opportunities in pet care and livestock farming [14][23]. Group 4: Financial Strategies and Asset Allocation - Discussions will include asset allocation strategies in a low-interest-rate environment, with a focus on the implications for various asset classes [21][31]. - The role of ETFs and quantitative products in modern investment strategies will be examined, highlighting their relevance in the current market landscape [9][32].

国泰海通证券 国泰海通证券2026年度策略; 11月4日上午 北京 · 中国大饭店 · 会议大厅ABC 议程安排 ● 09:00-09:10 致辞 李俊杰-国泰海通总裁 ● 09:10-10:00 中国宏观经济面临的挑战和应 对之策 余永定-中国社会科学院学部委员 ● 10:00-10:40 美国经济和货币政策展望 郭 凯 - 中国金融四十人研究院 执行院长 ● 10:40-11:20 全球变局下的大国关系走向 赵 海 - 中国社科院国家全球战略智 库国际政治研究部主任 *参会请联系您的国泰海通对口销售报名 研究运营组制作 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates a positive growth trend in China's express delivery industry, with expectations for improved profitability in the second half of the year due to a reduction in price competition and regulatory oversight from the postal administration [1]. Summary by Categories Industry Growth - By September 2025, the total volume of express delivery packages in China is projected to reach 16.88 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, the total volume is expected to be 145.08 billion packages, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [1]. Revenue and Pricing - In September 2025, the express delivery industry's revenue is anticipated to grow by 7.2% year-on-year, while the average revenue per package is expected to decline by 4.9% [1]. - From January to September 2025, the industry's revenue is projected to increase by 8.9% year-on-year, with a 7.1% decrease in average revenue per package [1]. Competitive Landscape - The decline in average revenue per package has shown signs of narrowing both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a moderation in price competition within the industry [1]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is expected to alleviate competitive pressures, leading to a potential recovery in profitability for e-commerce express delivery services in the latter half of the year [1]. - Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases, and there is a recommendation to closely monitor the regulatory efforts of the postal administration [1].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Guotai Junan Financial Technology Cultural Festival aims to promote the integration of finance and technology, enhancing financial services for the real economy and establishing a collaborative "finance + technology" ecosystem [1][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The forum attracted over 150 participants, including government officials, technology experts, and representatives from financial institutions, emphasizing the importance of collaboration in the financial technology sector [2]. - Guotai Junan's Chairman, Zhu Jian, highlighted the company's commitment to an open and integrated approach, collaborating with leading technology firms in areas such as artificial intelligence and cybersecurity [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - A comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Guotai Junan and the Jing'an District government to deepen collaboration between government and enterprises [3]. - Guotai Junan announced partnerships with ten technology companies to promote joint innovation and expand cooperation depth in the "finance + technology" domain [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The forum showcased Guotai Junan's global lighthouse model for digital transformation, developed in collaboration with Huawei, focusing on core trading upgrades and AI applications [4]. - The company introduced a resilient cybersecurity framework designed to detect threats in minutes and ensure stable business operations [4]. Group 4: Festival Highlights - The 2025 Guotai Junan Financial Technology Cultural Festival included various activities aimed at enhancing digital capabilities, such as an AI innovation competition and the launch of the first AI-driven app in the securities industry [5][6]. - The forum featured discussions on data management in the AI era and the application of AI in enhancing financial security, showcasing the integration of technology in the financial sector [6].

Core Insights - The 2025 Guotai Junan Financial Technology Cultural Festival concluded with a forum aimed at promoting the integration of finance and technology, enhancing financial services for the real economy, and building a collaborative "finance + technology" ecosystem [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The forum attracted over 150 participants, including government officials, technology experts, and representatives from financial institutions, emphasizing the importance of collaboration in the financial technology sector [1] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Guotai Junan and the Jing'an District government to deepen collaboration in financial technology and industry innovation [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Guotai Junan launched a global lighthouse model for digital transformation in collaboration with Huawei, showcasing innovations in core trading upgrades, AI applications, and data platforms [2][3] - The company introduced a resilient network and information security protection system, which focuses on rapid threat detection and automated response, setting a new standard for security in the brokerage industry [3] Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - During the forum, Guotai Junan established comprehensive strategic partnerships with ten technology companies to foster joint innovation and deepen collaboration in the financial technology space [3][4] - The festival included various activities over four months, culminating in the forum that highlighted the company's commitment to empowering the industry through technology and serving the real economy [4] Group 4: Expert Insights - Notable speakers shared insights on AI in data management, financial security, and the transformative impact of high-quality data sets on the securities industry, emphasizing the role of AI in enhancing financial services [5]

- The BL model is an improvement of the traditional mean-variance optimization (MVO) model, developed by Fisher Black and Robert Litterman in 1990. It integrates Bayesian theory to combine subjective views with quantitative asset allocation models, optimizing asset weights based on investor forecasts of market returns. This model addresses MVO's sensitivity to expected returns and offers higher tolerance compared to purely subjective investment approaches, providing efficient asset allocation solutions[12][13] - The BL model was implemented for both global and domestic assets. For global assets, it utilized indices such as S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index. For domestic assets, it included indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. Two versions of BL models were developed for each market, focusing on equities, bonds, commodities, and gold[13][14] - The Risk Parity model, introduced by Bridgewater in 2005, aims to equalize risk contributions across asset classes in a portfolio. It calculates initial asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation, then optimizes deviations between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final weights[17][18] - The Risk Parity model was constructed in three steps: selecting appropriate underlying assets, calculating risk contributions of each asset to the portfolio, and solving optimization problems to determine asset weights. It was applied to both global and domestic assets, using indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and COMEX Gold for domestic assets, and S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index for global assets[19][21] - The macro factor-based asset allocation model incorporates six macro risks: growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity. Using Factor Mimicking Portfolio methodology, high-frequency macro factors were constructed. The strategy involves calculating asset factor exposures, determining benchmark exposures, setting subjective factor deviations based on macro forecasts, and solving for asset weights to reflect macro risk judgments[23][26] - The macro factor-based model was applied to domestic assets, including indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. For example, in September 2025, subjective factor deviations were set as 0 for growth, inflation, interest rates, and credit, 1 for exchange rates, and 0 for liquidity, reflecting macroeconomic conditions at the time[25][27] - Domestic BL Model 1 achieved weekly returns of 0.1%, monthly returns of 0.38%, and annual returns of 3.97%, with annualized volatility of 2.23% and maximum drawdown of 1.31%[14][17] - Domestic BL Model 2 recorded weekly returns of -0.01%, monthly returns of 0.48%, and annual returns of 3.68%, with annualized volatility of 2.02% and maximum drawdown of 1.06%[14][17] - Global BL Model 1 delivered weekly returns of 0.54%, monthly returns of 0.03%, and annual returns of 1.02%, with annualized volatility of 2.04% and maximum drawdown of 1.64%[14][17] - Global BL Model 2 achieved weekly returns of 0.37%, monthly returns of 0.35%, and annual returns of 2.43%, with annualized volatility of 1.65% and maximum drawdown of 1.28%[14][17] - Domestic Risk Parity Model recorded weekly returns of 0.14%, monthly returns of 0.34%, and annual returns of 3.47%, with annualized volatility of 1.34% and maximum drawdown of 0.76%[21][22] - Global Risk Parity Model achieved weekly returns of 0.22%, monthly returns of 0.39%, and annual returns of 2.99%, with annualized volatility of 1.46% and maximum drawdown of 1.2%[21][22] - Macro Factor-Based Model delivered weekly returns of -0.25%, monthly returns of 0.73%, and annual returns of 4.29%, with annualized volatility of 1.54% and maximum drawdown of 0.64%[27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) at the 2025 Financial Street Forum emphasizes the need for comprehensive reform in the capital market to support high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan and transition into the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the importance of balancing investment and financing [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Framework - The reform framework focuses on four core tasks: advancing sector reforms, solidifying market stability, expanding institutional openness, and enhancing risk prevention and investor protection [2]. - The implementation of the "1+6" policy in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has shown effectiveness, leading to the initiation of reforms in the ChiNext and optimization of the Beijing Stock Exchange system [2]. - A new refinancing framework is proposed to guide long-term capital into the market, alongside deepening public fund reforms [2]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The reforms are expected to create new opportunities for investment banking, with an anticipated increase in equity financing driven by the expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext reforms, as well as broader merger and acquisition channels [2]. - In the first three quarters, A-share IPOs increased by 67% year-on-year, while refinancing (excluding large issuances) rose by 139%, indicating a robust market environment for leading brokerage firms [2]. - Wealth management and institutional business are expected to see dual upgrades, with long-term capital inflows likely boosting fund distribution and custody services [2]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - Leading brokerage firms with strong corporate client resources, professional service capabilities, and cross-border service abilities are positioned to maintain their competitive edge in the evolving investment banking ecosystem [2].