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申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250430
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-04-30 02:17
Group 1: Ninebot Company (689009) - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.5%, and a net profit of 456 million yuan, up 236.2% year-on-year [10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.898 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.600 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 75.1%, 42.2%, and 33.3% [10] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 24X, 17X, and 13X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [10] Group 2: Kweichow Moutai (600519) - The company achieved a revenue of 43.56 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with a net profit margin of 52.2% [15][13] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 93.96 billion, 99.14 billion, and 104.71 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.5%, and 5.6% respectively [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand presence and cash flow quality, with a current PE ratio of 21X, 20X, and 19X for the respective years [12][13] Group 3: Caibai Co., Ltd. (605599) - The company reported a net profit forecast for 2025-2027 of 804 million, 877 million, and 949 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [19] - The increase in gold prices has driven demand for investment products, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [19] - The company continues to expand its direct store network and enhance its online sales channels, achieving significant growth in e-commerce sales [16][19] Group 4: Bull Group (603195) - The company reported a revenue of 16.831 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.272 billion yuan, up 10.4% [18] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.04 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.49 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [19] - The company is focusing on channel expansion and brand recognition to drive long-term sustainable growth [19] Group 5: Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) - The company achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% [21] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 12.99 billion, 14.02 billion, and 15.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [21] - The company maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product range and solid management capabilities [21] Group 6: Yili Group (600887) - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, with a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [26] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 11.377 billion, 12.138 billion, and 12.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35%, 7%, and 6% respectively [28] - The company continues to focus on high-end product penetration and market share expansion in the dairy sector [28]
内需平稳复苏,新消费急先锋
2025-04-30 02:08
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor industry is showing a stable recovery with major companies like Moutai setting a 9% revenue growth target, Wuliangye aligning with macro indicators, and Luzhou Laojiao emphasizing steady growth. The supply-side pressure in the industry has significantly eased, and channel feedback is expected to improve [1][3]. - Moutai and Wuliangye have reported double-digit growth, slightly exceeding market expectations, while Luzhou Laojiao's cash flow performance is better than its apparent data [3]. Beer Industry - The beer sector performed well in Q1 2025, with small breweries like Zhujiang and Yanjing showing outstanding results. Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer met expectations, and structural improvements are noted despite pressure on ton prices [4][5]. Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to trend towards health and functionality, with Dongpeng Beverage showing high growth and new products like health water from Lululemon gaining attention. Nongfu Spring is also highlighted as a company to watch [6]. Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is experiencing supply-side adjustments, with Yili's Q1 report showing positive revenue growth. The improvement in demand is expected to resonate with the raw milk cycle, while Mengniu is noted for its defensive attributes [7]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is exhibiting a new consumption growth trend, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou revising their forecasts upward. Yuyou has entered new channels, and Ganyuan's overseas market prospects for Q2 are promising [8]. Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is showing a trend of low performance followed by high recovery, particularly in sports apparel. Anta Sports is effectively managing multiple brands, while home textile companies like Luolai and Mercury Home Textile are seen as defensive investments [11][12]. Key Recommendations - **Liquor**: Recommended stocks include Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Fenjiu and Wuliangye [10]. - **Beer**: Focus on Qingdao Beer and its strong dividend yield [5]. - **Dairy**: Yili and Mengniu are highlighted as key players [10]. - **Beverages**: Nongfu Spring and Lululemon are recommended [10]. - **Snacks**: Weilong, Yuyou, and Ganyuan are noted for their growth potential [10]. - **Textiles**: Anta Sports and home textile brands like Luolai are recommended for their defensive qualities [11][12]. Additional Insights - The pig farming sector is currently valued highly, with pig prices remaining elevated, but the breeding sector's outlook is cautious due to limited capacity recovery. Key companies to watch include Muyuan, Shennong Group, and Dekang [2][20]. - The poultry industry, particularly yellow feathered chickens, is facing challenges with prices down from last year, but companies like Lihua and Wens continue to expand [21]. - The retail sector is experiencing rapid growth, especially in the snack segment, with companies like Liangpinpuzi expected to open numerous new stores [33][34]. - The home appliance industry is focusing on tariff adjustments and new consumption trends, with companies like Vanward Electric and TCL Electronics showing strong performance [37][38].
从奶粉到婴儿水,金领冠“泉爱宝贝”这次要放啥大招?
FBIF食品饮料创新· 2025-04-30 01:55
图片来源:小红书 这些内容反映出年轻父母更加关注宝宝饮水的科学性、功能及安全性。 4月27日,伊利集团旗下专注于婴幼儿营养品的品牌金领冠在长白山举办了新品发布会,重磅推出了金 领冠泉爱宝贝婴儿水。这一产品,就回应了当下宝爸宝妈们对婴幼儿饮水品质日益增长的关注与需求。 纵观整个饮用水行业,饮用水消费正在从大众化向精细化、场景化方向深度演进。其中,婴儿水正成为 增速迅猛的新兴细分市场之一。 据共研网数据显示,我国包装饮用水行业快速发展,市场规模不断扩大,2024年已经突破2024亿元,2020- 2024年年复合增长率达到11% [1] 。而母婴水的市场占比较低,但增速较高,国内婴幼儿水市场增速迅猛: 从2015年的3936.8万元激增至2023年的10.4亿元 [2] ,且展现出较大的提升空间。 在婴儿怎么科学饮水这个问题上,随便打开小红书、抖音,都能刷出若干条避坑指南:反复烧开的千滚 水不行,隔夜的不能喝,水质太硬也不行…… 图片来源:金领冠 考虑到这一点,使用专业的婴儿水来冲泡奶粉显得尤为重要。对于宝爸宝妈们而言,选择合适的奶粉冲 泡用水更是育儿过程中的一个重要环节。 对于品牌而言,婴幼儿饮用水需兼顾更高的 ...
A股乳业板块异动拉升,皇氏集团涨超6%,贝因美、伊利股份、西部牧业、一鸣食品、麦趣尔、熊猫乳品纷纷上涨。
news flash· 2025-04-30 01:33
A股乳业板块异动拉升,皇氏集团涨超6%,贝因美、伊利股份、西部牧业、一鸣食品、麦趣尔、熊猫 乳品纷纷上涨。 ...
营收1158亿元 利润115.39亿元 稳居亚洲乳业第一 伊利股份韧性筑基 多维赋能开启价值增长新篇
21世纪经济报道· 2025-04-30 00:39
在行业逆风期,乳业龙头以一份"韧性十足、质地卓越"的业绩答卷,再次展现稳健与确定性底 色。 4月2 9日,伊利股份(6 0 0 8 8 7 .SH)发布2 0 2 4年年报及2 0 2 5年一季报:2 0 2 4年实现营业总收 入11 5 7 . 8 0亿元,稳居亚洲乳业第一,剔除商誉减值后净利润11 5 . 3 9亿元,增长1 2 . 2%,经营 规模与经营质量双领跑;2 0 2 5年一季度,实现营业总收入3 3 0 . 1 8亿元,同比增长1 . 3 5%,扣 非归母净利4 6 . 2 9亿元,同比增长2 4 . 1 9%,逆势双增,业绩企稳向好。可以看出,通过主动 调整,甩掉包袱后的伊利,将轻装上阵,快速迈入新增长轨道。 在行业承压的大环境下,伊利的这份成绩单尤为难得。而透过这份"量质双优"的财报可以看 出 , 伊 利 正 以 品 质 为 基 石 , 持 续 激 活 创 新 、 数 智 化 、 可 持 续 发 展 等 长 期 战 略 锚 点 的 乘 数 效 应,在迈向全球乳业第一的征程中越跑越稳、越跑越强。 向内挖潜提质效: 经营质量进阶展现龙头实力 作为目前唯一营收超千亿的中国乳企,伊利不仅规模优势稳 ...
乳业龙头2024年报营收利润双降,毛利率升至四年新高!2025Q1营收同比微增1.35%
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-04-30 00:20
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Yili Group (伊利股份) delivered mixed financial results for 2024 amid challenging industry conditions, with a significant decline in revenue and profit [1][2] - Yili's total revenue for 2024 was 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94% [1] - The fourth quarter showed even more pronounced pressure, with revenue of 26.66 billion yuan, a 7.0% decline, and a net loss of 2.42 billion yuan, representing a drastic drop of 330.4% [1] Group 2 - Despite the overall decline, Yili reported a positive operating cash flow of 21.74 billion yuan, an increase of 18.86% year-on-year, and the gross margin for liquid milk and dairy products rose to 34.03%, the highest in four years [1] - The company attributed its performance to a complex operating environment, with a general decline in consumer confidence leading to reduced dairy consumption and a temporary oversupply in the market [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, Yili's revenue was 33.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.71% [2]
“五一”假期,伊利健康谷推出“城市漫游计划-趣探索”系列活动
Nei Meng Gu Ri Bao· 2025-04-30 00:09
转自:草原云 "五一"假期,呼和浩特伊利现代智慧健康谷推出"伊起探索,乳此有趣——城市漫游计划-趣探索"系列 活动,通过游玩11座城市文化展馆,开展未来科技体验、童话互动演出等活动,为游客打造一场足不 出"呼"的沉浸式文旅盛宴。 机器人巡游。 伊利现代智慧健康谷创新融合地域文化与现代科技,为游客用心打造了兼具趣味性与知识性的11座代表 性城市主题馆,生动展示了伊利集团在全国多地的产业布局与地域特色,让这个"五一"假期,到伊利健 康谷游玩的市民和游客来一次别开生面的工业文旅体验,实地领略乳业匠心之美。 有宇树机器人惊喜巡游,打造未来感十足的场景。 与动物亲密接触。 感受童话世界:观看爱丽丝主题舞台剧,将观众带进入奇幻的森林魔法世界。届时,红皇后、疯帽子等 经典角色惊喜亮相,更有小丑魔术表演及游客与NPC互动获礼品的趣味和惊喜等着你。 除此以外,伊利首家萌宠互动乐园—伊诺·爪爪联萌营地也不容错过,月牙岛牧场、梯田堡牧场以及浣 乐之屋、爬影秘经、羽翼之森等互动游玩场地,都是孩子们和年轻人的最爱。 美丽的云南馆。 萌宠乐园。 科技互动升级:5月1日至5日期间,伊利智慧健康谷引入多项前沿科技互动项目,"伊利智拍瞬间"— ...
伊利股份(600887) - 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司对会计师事务所2024年度履职情况评估报告
2025-04-29 16:07
对会计师事务所 2024 年度履职情况评估报告 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司(简称"公司")聘请信永中和 会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)(简称"信永中和")作为公司 2024 年 度审计机构。根据《国有企业、上市公司选聘会计师事务所管理办法》 1 及信永中和进行了充分沟通,前后任会计师事务所均对变更事项无异议。 前后任会计师事务所已按照《中国注册会计师审计准则第 1153 号—前任 注册会计师和后任注册会计师的沟通》等有关规定完成沟通。 二、2024 年年审会计师事务所履职情况 《公司会计师事务所选聘制度》等有关规定,公司对信永中和 2024 年度 履职情况进行了评估,具体情况如下: 一、2024 年年审会计师事务所基本情况 (一)会计师事务所基本情况 信永中和成立于 2012 年 3 月 2 日,组织形式为特殊普通合伙,注册 地址为北京市东城区朝阳门北大街 8 号富华大厦 A 座 8 层,首席合伙人 为谭小青先生。 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,信永中和合伙人(股东)259 人,注册会计 师 1,780 人。签署过证券服务业务审计报告的注册会计师人数超过 700 人 ...
伊利股份(600887) - 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知
2025-04-29 16:00
证券代码:600887 证券简称:伊利股份 公告编号:临 2025-031 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: 股东大会召开日期:2025年5月20日 本次股东大会采用的网络投票系统:上海证券交易所股东大会网 络投票系统 一、召开会议的基本情况 (一)股东大会类型和届次 2024年年度股东大会 (二)股东大会召集人:公司董事会 (三)投票方式:本次股东大会所采用的表决方式是现场投票和网 络投票相结合的方式 (四)现场会议召开的日期、时间和地点 召开的日期时间:2025 年 5 月 20 日 14 点 00 分 召开地点:呼和浩特市金川开发区金四路 8 号伊利全球人才发展中 心二楼会议室 (五)网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间。 网络投票系统:上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间:自2025 年 5 月 20 日 至2025 年 5 月 20 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统,通过交易系统投票平台的投票 时间为股 ...
伊利股份(600887) - 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司第十一届监事会第六次会议决议公告
2025-04-29 15:58
证券代码:600887 证券简称:伊利股份 公告编号:临 2025-018 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 第十一届监事会第六次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 本议案需提交股东大会审议。 (二)审议并通过了《公司 2024 年度监事会工作报告》; 表决结果:同意 5 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 1 本议案需提交股东大会审议。 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司(简称"公司")第十一届监事 会第六次会议于 2025 年 4 月 28 日(星期一)上午 8:45 在公司五楼会议 室以现场和通讯相结合的方式召开。本次会议通知于 2025 年 4 月 18 日 以邮件方式发出,会议应当出席的监事五名,实际出席会议的监事五名。 会议由监事会主席李建强先生主持,会议符合《公司法》《公司章程》 的有关规定,合法有效。 二、监事会会议审议情况 会议审议并通过了以下议案,形成如下决议: (一)审议并通过了《公司 2024 年年度报告及摘要》(具体内容详 见上海证券交易所网站 www.sse ...