Group 1 - The stock prices of China's "three oil giants" collectively declined on September 30, with China Petroleum (00857.HK) down 2.75%, China National Offshore Oil (00883.HK) down 1.24%, and China Petroleum & Chemical (00386.HK) down 1.22% [2][3] - In the A-share market, oil and gas stocks also faced pressure, with China Petroleum (601857.SH) down 1.35%, China National Offshore Oil (600938.SH) down 1.02%, and China Petroleum & Chemical (600028.SH) also declining [3] - Reports on September 29 indicated that OPEC+ is likely to approve a new round of oil production increases in their online meeting on October 5, with an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day, aiming to regain market share [3][4] Group 2 - Following the news, concerns about oversupply in the oil market resurfaced, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude futures falling 3.86% to $63.18 per barrel on September 29, and continuing to decline to $62.72 per barrel [4] - OPEC+ currently accounts for about half of global oil production, including member countries from OPEC and Russia along with other allies [4] - If the production increase plan is implemented in November, it could further expand global oil supply, exacerbating the risk of oversupply and putting pressure on oil prices [5] Group 3 - Geopolitical factors, including a new plan announced by the U.S. and Israel to end the Gaza conflict, have significantly reduced geopolitical risks, contributing to further declines in oil prices [6] - Analysts suggest that potential oversupply and changes in geopolitical risk premiums may dominate trading in the short term, with market focus on OPEC+'s next actions and the fragile diplomatic process regarding Gaza [6] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown issue and upcoming non-farm payroll data release could also impact market risks and oil demand expectations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing mixed performance, with some products seeing price increases while others decline, influenced by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Key products with significant price increases this week include synthetic ammonia (up 8.58%), lithium battery electrolyte (up 5.71%), and aniline (up 3.90%), while natural gas saw a notable decline of 7.90% [1][2] - The overall chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across sub-sectors, largely due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [2] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [2] - Specific recommendations include focusing on the glyphosate sector, which is showing signs of recovery, and selecting companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand in the chemical industry, particularly for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for their robust market positions [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some products like synthetic ammonia and lithium battery electrolytes seeing price increases, while others like natural gas and sulfuric acid are declining [6][20] - The report suggests that the international oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and economic conditions [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-dividend stocks such as Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC due to their asset quality and dividend yield [5][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The chemical industry has shown varied performance over the past month, with a 0.3% increase in the basic chemical sector compared to a 2.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [1] - Key products that saw price increases include synthetic ammonia (up 8.58%) and lithium battery electrolytes (up 5.71%), while natural gas saw a significant decline of 7.90% [6][20] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to enter a growth cycle, such as glyphosate, and emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential [7][20] - Specific companies recommended include Jiangshan Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in the glyphosate sector [7][20] - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and pesticide sectors, suggesting companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yangfeng as potential investment opportunities [20] Price Trends - The report notes that while some chemical products are rebounding in price, the overall industry remains under pressure due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [6][20] - The report indicates that the PTA market is experiencing downward pressure, with prices declining due to weak demand from downstream polyester sectors [33][34] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts and investment ratings, including Xin Yangfeng, Senqilin, and Ruifeng New Materials, all rated as "Buy" [9][10][20]

Group 1 - The oil and gas extraction sector experienced a decline of 0.49% on September 30, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] - Major stocks in the oil and gas extraction sector showed mixed performance, with *ST Xinchao rising by 1.40% to a closing price of 3.61, while CNOOC fell by 1.02% to 26.13 [1] Group 2 - The oil and gas extraction sector saw a net outflow of 134 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 42.49 million yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data indicates that *ST Xinchao had a net inflow of 1.57 million yuan from retail investors, despite a net outflow of 1.47 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - CNOOC faced a significant net outflow of 120 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 34.61 million yuan [2]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年9月30日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 中國海洋石油有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年9月30日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00883 | | 說明 | | 於香港聯交所上市的股份（「香港股份」） | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 80883 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | ...

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced that the total length of China's subsea oil and gas pipelines has surpassed 10,000 kilometers, positioning the country among the world's leaders in this field, marking a significant milestone in marine oil and gas resource development and enhancing national energy security [1] Group 1: Pipeline Infrastructure - The 10,000 kilometers of subsea pipelines is nearly twice the straight-line distance from the south to the north of China, showcasing the extensive reach of the infrastructure [1] - The pipeline specifications cover a full range from 2 inches to 48 inches, including single-layer and double-layer pipes, aligning with international mainstream types [1] - CNOOC's pipeline laying technology and equipment capabilities have reached international advanced levels, leading in aspects such as the completeness of the equipment technology system [1] Group 2: Engineering Challenges - Subsea pipelines are critical for offshore oil and gas transportation, often referred to as the "lifeline" of marine oil and gas production systems, facing complex underwater terrains and extreme environmental conditions [1] - At depths of 1,500 meters, pipelines must withstand pressures of 150 atmospheres, equivalent to the weight of 1.5 family cars concentrated on an A4 sheet of paper [1] - China is one of the countries with the most complex marine conditions, which imposes higher technical requirements for subsea pipeline engineering [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - CNOOC has overcome technical challenges related to subsea pipeline design and installation in harsh marine conditions, establishing a complete technical system for subsea pipeline engineering that includes design, construction, and installation [2] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, CNOOC has significantly enhanced its pipeline laying capabilities, laying over 1,500 kilometers of subsea pipelines, with a maximum operational depth of 1,542 meters, marking a historic transition from shallow to ultra-deep water [2] - The company has developed a range of specialized vessels and equipment, including the first domestic 3,000-meter ultra-deepwater lifting and laying vessel, "Ocean Oil 201," which has driven the independent and comprehensive upgrade of China's subsea pipeline construction [2] Group 4: Global Projects - In recent years, CNOOC has undertaken over 10 projects in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, laying more than 500 kilometers of subsea pipelines and setting multiple industry records for the largest and heaviest subsea pipes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas extraction sector experienced a decline of 0.43% on September 29, with *ST Xinchao leading the drop, while the overall market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.9% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.05% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up by 0.9% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up by 2.05% [1]. - The oil and gas extraction sector's decline was led by *ST Xinchao, which fell by 1.11% to a closing price of 3.56 [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Intercontinental Oil & Gas (600759) closed at 2.28, with a slight increase of 0.44% and a trading volume of 1.2146 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 274 million [1]. - Blue Flame Holdings (000968) remained unchanged at 6.89, with a trading volume of 70,100 shares and a transaction value of 47.996 million [1]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) closed at 26.40, down by 0.38%, with a trading volume of 315,400 shares and a transaction value of 831 million [1]. Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - The oil and gas extraction sector saw a net outflow of 5.5946 million from institutional investors and a net outflow of 10.2858 million from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 15.8804 million [1]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) experienced a net inflow of 5.2561 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 9.1706 million [2]. - *ST Xinchao (600777) had a net inflow of 88,900 from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 273.11 million from retail investors [2].

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved a significant breakthrough in lithological exploration in the Paleogene system of the Liaozhong sag in the Bohai Bay Basin, successfully drilling high-yield oil and gas wells, which further strengthens China's offshore oil and gas resource reserves [1] Group 1 - CNOOC's successful drilling of high-yield oil and gas wells marks a major advancement in the exploration of offshore resources [1] - The achievement is expected to enhance the foundation of China's offshore oil and gas resource reserves [1]

Core Insights - China's offshore oil and gas exploration has achieved significant breakthroughs, particularly in the Bohai Bay Basin's Liaozhong Depression, with the successful drilling of high-yield oil and gas wells [1][3] - The JZ27-6-3 well encountered a 57.4-meter oil and gas layer and reached a total depth of 1,925 meters, producing approximately 500 tons of crude oil and 20,000 cubic meters of natural gas per day [1][3] Exploration Achievements - The region's complex oil and gas reservoir structure had previously hindered large-scale exploration, but China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has made technological advancements to address these challenges [3] - CNOOC established a coupling relationship between sediments and uplifts, innovating a model for the advantageous migration of Paleogene lithologic bodies, which led to the identification of rich oil and gas accumulation zones [3] Strategic Implications - The breakthrough in the Liaozhong Depression confirms the substantial exploration potential of Paleogene lithologic oil and gas reservoirs in the Bohai Bay Basin, facilitating secondary exploration in older oil fields [3] - This discovery is crucial for ensuring stable energy supply in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the surrounding Bohai Sea area, while also providing replicable technical routes and practical experiences for similar explorations in China's maritime regions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly. Butadiene rubber is affected by macro - sentiment, and the market's attempt to support prices has been hindered. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production, the synthetic rubber market is viewed with a bearish attitude in the short - term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During the reporting period, the prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown of Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant due to a malfunction did not boost the supply in the short - term as the overall supply of private spot resources was sufficient, and there was an expectation of concentrated restart of maintenance plants at the end of September. The increase in external supply of butadiene led to a decline in the transaction center, and the cost side also lacked driving force. Although the mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber was lowered at the end of the previous period, the price centers of arbitrage resources and private resources in the first and middle of the week were still significantly lower than the spot cost of the two - oil resources. Some industry players were still waiting for a further decline in the mainstream supply price. In the middle and late weeks, the supply of low - priced arbitrage resources decreased, and the price gap between high - end and low - end spot narrowed slightly. As the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end, downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 103,000 tons (-1.91%), and the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%. Devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Fujian Refining & Petrochemical's No.1 unit remained shut down, and production continued to decline [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene rubber plants of Shandong Weite, Taiyo - Yuubu, and Haopu New Materials continued maintenance. Shandong Yihua's plant was shut down temporarily due to a malfunction. The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [2] 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was dull. In some regions, the sales of all - season tires were weak, the social inventory was sufficient and the consumption was slow, so agents were not active in purchasing. For the snow - tire market, product promotion meetings of various brands were held one after another, and the channel inventory was relatively sufficient. Future attention should be paid to the terminal demand [2] - **All - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was average, mainly for regular sales, and the transaction price was stable. There was no obvious pre - holiday stocking, and the inventory was mainly consumed during the period. It is expected that the market stocking volume will increase significantly in the next period [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 277,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13%. Some devices continued to operate at reduced capacity, the refinery inventory decreased, and the suppliers sold more goods before the holiday, so the inventory remained at a relatively low level. The port inventory increased significantly due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels during the week, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of major enterprises remained stable during the period, but most prices showed a week - on - week downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's North China Qilu, North China Yanshan, East China Yangzi, and South China Maoming decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][8] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,040 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the NR - BR spread was 1,005 yuan/ton (+17.54%); the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.12% [2] 3.5 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was 186 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction was 1,861.1 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 225 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 1.89% [2] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - On September 25 local time, US President Trump announced on his social media platform that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1. The crude oil market is in a range - bound game due to geopolitical factors, sanctions, and the expected oversupply in the fundamentals caused by OPEC+ production increases. The US non - farm payroll data for August was lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, with two more interest rate cuts expected within the year, with a total cut of 50bp or more. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short - term and show a tense trend [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]