Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal consumption has decreased due to tariff disruptions, with daily consumption in coastal provinces dropping from 1.871 million tons in late March to 1.760 million tons by April 24, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [1][7]. - Despite low coal prices, there is a lack of upward momentum for coal prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [1][8]. - The report suggests that while there may be a temporary rebound in coking coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall price increase potential remains limited [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the coal price has been experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent prices reported at 657 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao port, down 8 CNY from the previous week [8]. - The report indicates that the overall coal market is influenced by both weak demand and tariff disruptions, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][8]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their stable performance and strong cash flow [2][11]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for major companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 CNY in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.8% in the coal sector compared to gains in major indices [12][14]. - It also notes that the coking coal market is expected to stabilize in the short term due to increased demand for steelmaking [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow like Jinkong Coal [2][11]. - It emphasizes the defensive value of companies with low debt and high cash flow amidst ongoing tariff disruptions [8].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07% on April 25, with 21 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by utilities and telecommunications, which rose by 1.36% and 1.15% respectively [1] - The real estate and coal sectors had the largest declines, with decreases of 0.60% and 0.59% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 4.975 billion yuan, with 14 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The computer sector had the highest net inflow, totaling 3.368 billion yuan, while the utilities sector followed with a net inflow of 1.581 billion yuan [1] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal sector experienced a decline of 0.59% with a net outflow of 19.4741 million yuan [2] - Among the 37 stocks in the coal sector, 16 stocks rose while 20 stocks fell [2] - The top five stocks with net inflows exceeding 10 million yuan included Yongtai Energy (1.23 billion yuan), Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (417.494 million yuan), and China Shenhua (338.088 million yuan) [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Huaibei Mining (-43.6057 million yuan), Hengyuan Coal Electricity (-39.3828 million yuan), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (-34.1931 million yuan) [2][3] Individual Stock Performance - The top three stocks with the largest net outflows were: - Huaibei Mining: -43.6057 million yuan - Hengyuan Coal Electricity: -39.3828 million yuan - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry: -34.1931 million yuan [2][3] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Yongtai Energy, with a net inflow of 1.2254 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices have reached the cost line for some mines, leading to an expected reduction in production. The supply side is constrained due to regular safety inspections and maintenance on major railways, which is anticipated to support coal prices during the off-season [1]. - The report emphasizes that while electricity demand is entering a low season, the combination of maintenance on railways and reduced import volumes is expected to stabilize coal prices [1]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are characterized by stable operations and high dividends. It also suggests关注淮北矿业, 平煤股份, and 电投能源 for their undervalued potential [1]. Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The report notes that the Xinjiang coal transportation project has been approved, which will enhance coal transportation capacity significantly, thus reducing logistics costs and supporting energy security [5]. - The report mentions the implementation of a differentiated electricity pricing mechanism in Shandong to optimize power resource allocation [9]. Price Trends - As of April 18, 2025, the prices for various types of coal have shown mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others have seen slight declines. For instance, the price for Shanxi's main coking coal remains at 1380 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [10][13]. - The report indicates that international coal prices have fluctuated, with Indonesian coal prices decreasing while South African prices have increased [11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report states that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased by 4.10% week-on-week, while the outflow has dropped significantly by 20.04% due to adverse weather conditions [22]. - The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased by 6.93% week-on-week, indicating a buildup of stock amid declining demand [22]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen by 6.95% week-on-week, reflecting increased transportation expenses [32]. - International shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with some routes experiencing slight increases while others have decreased [32]. Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings per share (EPS) projections for the coming years [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights two significant divergences in the first quarter economic data: 1) the divergence between GDP growth and electricity consumption growth; 2) the increase in raw coal production while power plant inventories are decreasing. The GDP growth of 5.4% contrasts with a mere 2.5% increase in electricity consumption, primarily due to economic structural transformation and unexpected weather impacts on residential electricity use. Additionally, despite high raw coal production, power plant inventories have declined due to weak power generation demand and structural inventory accumulation at ports and pits [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 2.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.98 percentage points, ranking 3rd out of 32 industries. The thermal coal market price as of April 18 is 663 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][20]. Thermal Coal Market - The report notes that while seasonal demand for coal is weak, the market is expected to stabilize as the negative factors affecting coal stocks are likely to diminish. The report suggests a positive outlook for coal stocks due to high dividend yields and narrowing second-order effects of falling coal prices [6][20]. Coking Coal Market - The coking coal price at Jing Tang Port remains stable at 1380 RMB/ton. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential domestic demand stimulus policies and the sustainability of steel production increases [6][21]. Economic Divergences - The report elaborates on the divergence between GDP growth and electricity consumption, attributing it to structural upgrades in the economy and unexpected weather impacts. The first quarter saw a raw coal production increase of 9.704 million tons (8.1% year-on-year), while power plant inventories decreased by approximately 21.03 million tons since the beginning of the year [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends marginal allocations to long-term stable profit leaders such as China Shenhua (A+H) and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Xinji Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy. It also highlights flexible growth stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining (A+H) and Shanxi Coking Coal [8].

淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会 会议资料 股票代码：600985 二○二五年四月 一、会议召开时间： （一）现场会议：2025 年 4 月 29 日上午 9:00 淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会会议资料 淮北矿业控股股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会会议议程 （二）网络投票：采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平 台的投票时间为股东大会召开当日的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25，9:30-11:30， 13:00-15:00；通 过 互联网 投票 平台 的 投票时 间为 股东 大 会召开 当日的 9:15-15:00。 二、现场会议地点：安徽省淮北市人民中路 276 号淮北矿业会议中心 三、与会人员 （一）截至 2025 年 4 月 22 日下午交易结束后，在中国证券登记结算有限责 任公司上海分公司登记在册的公司股东或其代理人； （二）公司董事、监事及高级管理人员； （三）本次会议的见证律师； （四）本次会议的工作人员。 四、主持人：董事长孙方 五、会议主要议程安排 （一）宣布开会 3.介绍公司董事、监事、高级管理人员、见证律师及其他人士的出席情况 （ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 14.49 CNY, compared to the current price of 12.48 CNY [5][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 65.875 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 10.49% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion CNY, down 22.00% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction, with the comprehensive cost per ton of coal decreasing by 11.74% year-on-year, despite a decline in both production and sales volumes [9][10]. - The ethanol production business is highlighted as a new growth driver, with an expected output of 370,000 tons in 2024, leveraging cost advantages and high-quality characteristics [9][10]. - The report anticipates a stabilization in coal prices, which are currently near historical lows, and expects an increase in iron and steel production in the second quarter [9][10]. Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 64.496 billion CNY, with a projected net profit of 4.341 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.6% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.80 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7 [4][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.75 CNY per share in 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.12% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for performance improvement due to supply contraction leading to a rebound in coal prices and company performance [1]. Core Insights - The domestic raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, totaling 765 million tons, while coal imports saw a decline of 0.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average price of thermal coal and coking coal at ports dropped significantly in Q1 2025, with thermal coal prices falling approximately 19.92% year-on-year and coking coal prices down about 40.21% year-on-year [2][16]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their Q1 2025 earnings, with China Shenhua and Electric Power Investment Energy showing better-than-expected results, while Shaanxi Black Cat is anticipated to underperform [2][18]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic raw coal production increased by 600.6 million tons, a 7.7% rise compared to the same period in 2024, with significant contributions from Shanxi (20.3% increase) and Inner Mongolia (2.0% increase) [3][8]. - Coal imports for the first three months of 2025 totaled 11.5 million tons, reflecting a 0.9% decrease year-on-year, with March marking the first month of negative growth since January 2023 [11][13]. Price Trends - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports was approximately 723 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down from 903 RMB/ton in Q1 2024, marking a decline of 19.92% [2][16]. - Coking coal prices also saw a significant drop, with the average price for Shanxi's main coking coal at 1444 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down 40.21% from 2416 RMB/ton in Q1 2024 [2][17]. Company Performance Forecasts - China Shenhua is expected to report an EPS of 0.70, a year-on-year decrease of 12.94%, while Electric Power Investment Energy is projected to have an EPS of 0.84, down 3.6% year-on-year [2][18]. - Companies like Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal are expected to report earnings that are in line with expectations, while Shaanxi Black Cat is forecasted to underperform with an EPS of -0.27, a significant drop of 169.28% year-on-year [2][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from increased market coal and stable operations with high dividends, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also considering undervalued companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [2].

Group 1: Core Views - The coal price is expected to find a reasonable bottom support at 640-650 RMB/ton, with the industry unlikely to return to 2015 levels [1] - The coal sector is anticipated to see an upward turning point in April 2025, with prices expected to rebound in June due to summer peak demand [2] - The focus on dividend assets is expected to increase due to intensified market volatility from trade frictions [1] Group 2: Thermal Coal Insights - The coal industry has released sufficient risk, and upward potential is expected after April 2025, with the northern Huanghua Port Q5500 price stable at 675 RMB/ton [2] - Domestic production in Xinjiang has decreased, and coal transportation has shown a decline, while overseas imports are expected to decrease starting March [2] - Non-electric coal demand is projected to accelerate in April, potentially driving coal prices back up [2] Group 3: Coking Coal Analysis - The bottom for coking coal prices is expected to be established alongside thermal coal prices, with the main coking coal price at 1380 RMB/ton remaining stable [3] - The introduction of a market-oriented index by the Mongolian Exchange aims to boost exports, although supply and demand for coking coal remain under pressure [3] - The first round of price increases for coke has begun, but the rebound potential is limited [3] Group 4: Industry Review - As of April 12, 2025, the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port is 1380 RMB/ton, with a total inventory of 339.9 million tons across three ports [4] - The Australian Newcastle Port Q5500 offshore price increased by 1 USD/ton, while the northern port's price is 650 RMB/ton higher than Australian imports [4] - The cost of Australian coking coal has risen by 5 USD/ton, with domestic coking coal being cheaper than imported hard coking coal by 213 RMB/ton [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal investments due to the expected recovery in domestic demand amid escalating trade tensions. The coal market is viewed as a defensive asset class, particularly in light of the current economic environment and monetary policy shifts [3][4][13]. - The coal prices have stabilized at ports, with CCTD thermal coal Q5500 priced at 676 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The report notes that the market sentiment is improving as inventory issues begin to ease [3][4]. - The report outlines several factors that could support a rebound in coal prices, including the long-term contract price ceiling, the maintenance of the annual contract system, and the linkage between coal and electricity prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again. The current weak domestic economy and external pressures from U.S. tariffs create a favorable environment for coal as a stable dividend investment [4][13]. - The cyclical nature of coal stocks is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices at low levels, suggesting potential for recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][13]. Key Market Indicators - The report provides a snapshot of key indicators, noting that the coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.17 percentage points, with a weekly decline of 5.04% [8][10]. - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.2, and the PB ratio is 1.16, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [10][14]. Coal Price Trends - Port coal prices have remained stable, with the Qinhuangdao port price holding steady. The report notes a slight increase in prices at some production sites, indicating a mixed market response [3][4][16]. - The report also highlights the international coal price trends, with Newcastle prices showing slight increases, while domestic prices remain competitive against imports [16][17]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of April 6, the operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 81.7%, a slight decrease from the previous week. Coastal power plants' daily coal consumption has also seen a minor decline [3][4][16]. - The report indicates that non-electric coal demand is showing signs of improvement, with methanol and urea production rates increasing, which may further support coal inventory reduction [3][4][16]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report lists several coal companies with strong dividend potential and cyclical recovery prospects, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [4][14][18]. - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to see increased capital inflows as institutional investors recognize the current valuation as a bottoming opportunity [4][13].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 】 2025 04 13 年 月 日 煤炭开采 3 重倒挂助煤价以时间换空间，"中特煤"以行动书写担当 行情回顾（2025.4.7~2025.4.11）： 基本面方面，我们持续强调"把握行业本质属性，坚定信心、坚守定力"。 "一利稳定增长，五率持续优化"，着力提高央企控股上市公司质量，强化投资者回 报。 中信煤炭指数 3,157.77 点，下跌 5.04%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.16pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 本周两大煤炭央企发声"积极支持控股上市公司高质量发展"。此外，多部委机构打 出稳市组合拳，场外增量资金充足，我们认为"财务报表优异，低资本开支&现金流 充裕，具备高分红、高股息的央企"尤为受益。 考虑到煤价属周期波动，煤炭企业或通过加大成本管控力度，保证企业效益稳步提 升。以神华、中煤两大央企为例，在 24 年煤价中枢明显下移的背景下，其业绩降幅 显著低于煤价降幅，降本增效成效显著，诚意满满。 加大回购注销、分红力度，推动资产注入，延伸产业链布局均是提高 ROE 的方向。 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -30% -2 ...