黄金股多数走高，截至发稿，中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨6.1%，报177.3港元；灵宝黄金(03330) 涨4.4%，报21.36港元；紫金黄金国际(02259)涨3.59%，报158.5港元；赤峰黄金（600988）(06693)涨 2.52%，报30.96港元。 消息面上，避险情绪显著升温， 周一黄金首次升破4600美元大关，再创历史新高。鲍威尔突遭调查， 引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。此外，市场继续关注伊朗局势进展。据央视新闻消息，当地时间12 日，美国国务院已要求美国公民立即离开伊朗。近期，伊朗多地出现抗议活动，其间发生骚乱，造成安 全人员和民众伤亡。花旗预测三个月内金价将达到每盎司5000美元，银价达到100美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nearly 20 Hong Kong-listed companies have announced their performance forecasts for the year ending December 31, 2025, with 11 companies expecting profit increases, 2 companies anticipating reduced losses, and 1 company projecting a turnaround to profitability [1] Group 1: Gold Mining Sector - Gold mining companies are showing strong performance, driven by rising gold prices and increased production capacity [2] - Lingbao Gold expects a net profit of 1.503 billion to 1.573 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 115% to 125%, attributed to optimized production and increased gold output [2] - Zijin Mining International anticipates a net profit of 1.5 billion to 1.6 billion USD for 2025, with a growth of 212% to 233%, driven by higher gold sales prices and profitable acquisitions [2] - Zijin Mining's parent company, Zijin Mining Group, forecasts a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth of 59% to 62% [3] - Chifeng Jilong Gold expects a net profit of 3 billion to 3.2 billion RMB for 2025, with a growth of 70% to 81%, due to increased gold production and higher sales prices [3] - Multiple gold mining companies are benefiting from a rising gold price cycle, achieving both volume and price increases [4] Group 2: Biopharmaceutical and Consumer Sectors - The biopharmaceutical and consumer sectors also have companies projecting strong performance for 2025 [5] - WuXi AppTec expects an adjusted net profit of 14.957 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 41.33%, driven by its integrated CRDMO business model [5] - Biotech company Baidu Bio expects a non-GAAP net profit of approximately 80.273 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth of about 249.50%, supported by strong R&D capabilities and market expansion [5] - Yadea Holdings anticipates a net profit of no less than 2.9 billion RMB for 2025, doubling from 1.27 billion RMB in 2024, due to increased sales of electric two-wheelers [5] Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Growth - Many Hong Kong-listed companies are achieving performance growth through improved operational efficiency and increased product sales [7] - China Shipbuilding Defense expects a net profit of 940 million to 1.12 billion RMB for 2025, with a growth of 149.61% to 196.88%, driven by increased revenue and improved production efficiency [7] - Kinglong Permanent Magnet anticipates a net profit of 660 million to 760 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth of 127% to 161%, due to record high production and sales [7] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls expects a net profit of 3.874 billion to 4.649 billion RMB for 2025, with a growth of 25% to 50%, supported by its leading position in the automotive thermal management sector [8]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 1.62% on January 12, with Hunan Silver leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Hunan Silver's stock price rose to 8.38, reflecting a 6.08% increase, with a trading volume of 3.1778 million shares [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 229 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 185 million yuan [1] - Major stocks like Shandong Gold and Hunan Silver experienced varying levels of net fund inflows and outflows, with Shandong Gold seeing a net inflow of 108 million yuan [2] - Retail investors contributed significantly to the net inflow in several stocks, including Hunan Silver and Sichuan Gold, despite overall sector outflows [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry is experiencing a strong upward trend due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors, leading to increased gold prices and a positive outlook for gold-related stocks and ETFs [1] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) rose by 1.09%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Mingpai Jewelry (up 10.05%) and Hunan Silver (up 5.19%) [1] - International spot gold prices have historically surpassed $4600 per ounce, prompting domestic gold prices to follow suit, with local gold jewelry prices reported between 1420-1430 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for gold industry stocks account for 63.58% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [2] - The macroeconomic environment, particularly weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, is reinforcing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which could support the upward movement of precious metals [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that investing in resource stocks is not only about bullish metal prices but also serves as a hedge against rising inflation. The recent surge in metal prices, including gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, is attributed to a significant drop in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside rising inflation expectations [8][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical events, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages. The report highlights the increasing domestic supply of bauxite and alumina, which enhances the industry's resource security [14] - The precious metals sector is viewed positively as the long-term debt cycle enters its late stage, with rising physical prices reflecting a loss of trust in fiat currency systems. The report anticipates that precious metal prices will continue to reach historical highs in 2026 [15] - The copper sector faces supply chain vulnerabilities, with recent labor disputes leading to production cuts. The report suggests that the basic fundamentals support the equity side of copper investments, which are expected to rise alongside copper prices [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report indicates that the recent collective rise in metal prices is a response to inflationary pressures and a re-evaluation of physical asset values as the dollar debt cycle matures [8][13] - The aluminum sector is highlighted for its strong supply chain capabilities, with domestic production of bauxite and alumina expected to increase, providing a competitive edge [14] - The precious metals market is projected to see continued price increases, driven by a shift in investor sentiment towards physical assets as a safeguard against debt risks [15] Steel Industry - The steel industry is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the year-end off-season, with a slight increase in iron and steel production but a decrease in demand [17][22] - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks have increased, indicating a potential oversupply situation [24] - Steel prices have shown a slight overall increase, with specific products like hot-rolled steel experiencing marginal price rises [36][37] New Energy Metals - The report notes a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, with December 2025 figures showing a 69.09% rise [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures for November 2025 reflecting substantial growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen sharply, indicating a robust market for new energy metals [49][50]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective rise in gold stocks, with Shandong Gold increasing by over 6% [1] - Zhaojin Mining surged nearly 5%, reaching a new historical high price [1] - Zijin Mining rose by 3.6%, while Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining increased by 2.8% [1] Group 2 - Other gold companies such as Zijin Gold International, China Gold International, and Tongguan Gold also experienced gains [1]

值得一提的是，近期多家上市黄金矿企发布业绩预喜。灵宝黄金预计2025年度取得净利润人民币介于约 15.03亿元至约15.73亿元，同比增加约115%至125%；紫金矿业预计全年实现归母净利润510亿至520亿 元，同比增幅约为59%至62%；赤峰黄金则预计全年净利润同比增加约70%到81%。 消息面上，近期地缘风险与降息预期支撑金价，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四再度向美联储施压， 并称该行需要尽其所能促进经济投资，利率应该大幅降低。当前市场关注将于今晚公布的2025年12月非 农就业报告。摩根士丹利在报告中预测，黄金价格将在2026年第四季度升至每盎司4800美元，突破去年 创下的历史纪录。该投行认为，利率下行、美联储领导层更迭，以及各国央行和基金持续买入，将共同 推动金价进一步上涨。 黄金股多数走高，截至发稿，山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨5.8%，报39.78港元；招金矿业(01818)涨 4.8%，报35.82港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨3.12%，报38.86港元；赤峰黄金（600988）(06693) 涨3.11%，报29.85港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global gold ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with record inflows and trading volumes, driven by factors such as continued central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, 2026, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 1.21%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Laopu Gold (06181) up 3.28%, Western Gold (601069) up 3.13%, and Shandong Gold (01787) up 2.45% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) also saw a rise of 1.22%, with the latest price at 1.74 yuan [1] Group 2: ETF and Index Insights - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 63.58% of the total index weight, including companies like Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547) [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Guoxin Securities, the ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, continuous gold purchases by global central banks for 13 months, and persistent geopolitical risks are expected to support gold prices, which are likely to maintain an upward trend in 2026, albeit with a slower growth rate compared to 2025 [1] - Gold is highlighted as a core asset for risk diversification in investment portfolios, emphasizing its importance in asset allocation strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2025, becoming the first "A+H" listed company in Inner Mongolia, marking a significant milestone in its development journey [1] Group 1: Company Development - The company went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2012 through a major asset restructuring, adopting a "merger-acquisition-integration-development" model to enhance its gold resource volume and production capacity [1] - The successful H-share listing in March 2025 is seen as a major achievement in the company's development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on its core gold business, enhancing its development foundation and expanding growth opportunities during the 15th Five-Year Plan [1] - Plans include increasing exploration efforts for its own mining resources, expanding resource volume and reserves, and accelerating the construction and production of key projects both domestically and internationally [1] Group 3: Financial Strategy - The company intends to leverage the financing potential of its A+H dual listing to upgrade capital operation efficiency, injecting strong financial momentum for sustainable development [2] - It aims to capture global acquisition opportunities and expand its industrial footprint by targeting quality resource assets [2] - The company will deepen cost management and ESG system construction to solidify its core competitiveness of "high efficiency, low cost," aligning with international capital market standards [2]