Market Overview - On January 15, A-shares opened lower and then experienced slight gains before declining, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.6% at 4101.52 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.44% at 14186.11 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.02% at 3314.88 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.87 trillion yuan, with over 3600 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The tourism and hotel sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Zhongxin Tourism hitting a two-day limit up and Shaanxi Tourism reaching the daily limit [4] - The precious metals sector was active, with Sichuan Gold nearing the daily limit and other stocks like Chifeng Gold and Hunan Silver following suit. Recent news indicated that spot silver prices surged over 7%, reaching a historical high of $93 per ounce, while spot gold also hit a record high of $4643 per ounce [2] - The lithium battery sector strengthened, with Tianhong Lithium rising over 14% and other companies like Tianji Co. and Huasheng Lithium also seeing gains. The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 36.71% from the beginning of the month, reaching 160,000 yuan per ton [3] - The smart driving sector saw a rise, with stocks like Suoling Co. hitting the daily limit. The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission announced plans for the large-scale application of high-level autonomous driving by 2027 [6] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that despite recent regulatory measures to cool the market, overall trading activity remains high, with key indicators like daily trading volume and margin financing balances above long-term averages. The firm expects continued benefits for securities companies and a potential for revenue diversification and quality improvement [7] - CITIC Jiantou highlighted that the mid-term "stock-bond seesaw" effect will further support A-share performance, with macro liquidity showing characteristics of "internal and external easing resonance" [9] - Huatai Securities reported that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a liquidity recovery, with significant growth in BD transactions compared to the previous year, indicating a potential bullish trend for innovative drugs [10]

Market Overview - On January 15, A-shares opened lower, with the ChiNext index turning positive after a near 1% drop, while the Shenzhen Component index turned red. By the time of reporting, the Shanghai Composite index was down 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component index was up 0.21%, and the ChiNext index was up 0.23% [1] Sector Performance - The tourism sector rebounded collectively, with Zhongxin Tourism achieving a second consecutive limit-up. Other stocks such as Junting Hotel, Shaanxi Tourism, China Youth Travel, Jinjiang Hotel, and ShouLai Hotel also saw gains [2] - The photovoltaic sector opened low but recovered, with Tuori New Energy also achieving a second consecutive limit-up [1] Focus Stocks - Sunflower faced a significant drop, hitting a 20% limit down due to negative impacts from a terminated restructuring, with a sealed order amounting to approximately 250 million yuan [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities indicated that despite recent regulatory measures to cool the market and prevent overheating risks, the overall trading activity in the equity market remains at historically high levels. Key indicators such as average daily trading volume and margin financing balances are above long-term averages, suggesting that securities firms are likely to continue benefiting [4] - CITIC Jiantou noted that the global interest rate cut cycle is entering its second half in 2026, with macro liquidity characterized by "internal and external easing resonance." The depreciation of the dollar and appreciation of the yuan are expected to support A-share strength [5] - Huatai Securities reported that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a liquidity recovery, with significant growth in BD transactions compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential bullish trend in the innovative drug market [6] -招商证券 suggested that the chemical industry may see marginal improvements in profitability as outdated production capacity is expected to be eliminated, following a period of price declines in chemical products [7]

Company Overview - Guoen Co., Ltd. (002768) is undergoing a listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, sponsored exclusively by China Merchants Securities International. The company operates in two main segments: Advanced Chemicals (Chemical New Materials) and Health Products (Gelatin, Collagen, and related upstream and downstream products) [1] Advanced Chemicals Segment - The Advanced Chemicals segment focuses on the chemical new materials industry, offering products such as green petrochemical materials (e.g., aromatic olefins, styrene, polystyrene) and organic polymer modified materials and composites. These products serve downstream industries including automotive, new energy, and home appliances [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, Guoen Co., Ltd. is the second largest company in China for organic polymer modified materials and organic polymer composites by sales revenue in 2024, holding a market share of 2.5%. It is also the largest producer of polystyrene in China by production capacity in 2024 [1] Health Products Segment - The Health Products segment focuses on the natural collagen industry, developing collagen peptide derivatives and end products through its subsidiary Dongbao Biological (300239). The primary customers are medical and pharmaceutical manufacturers [1] - Based on Frost & Sullivan's data, Guoen Co., Ltd. ranks as the second largest producer of bone gelatin in China by production volume in 2024, and it is the largest domestic brand in this category. Additionally, it is the second largest domestic brand in the hollow capsule production sector in China, according to 2024 production volume estimates [1] Market Outlook - The market for organic polymer modified materials and organic polymer composites in China is projected to grow from RMB 544.8 billion in 2024 to RMB 1,037.5 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that due to a slight recovery in sow production capacity in 2024, the overall trend of pork prices will continue to decline in 2025, although there may still be slight profits for the year [1] Industry Analysis - The industry is experiencing a dual pressure of passive capacity reduction due to "anti-involution" and active capacity reduction driven by pork prices falling below cash costs [1] - Sow production capacity began to be reduced in July and is expected to accelerate from October [1] - It is anticipated that pork prices may gradually recover in the second half of 2026 [1] Cost Dynamics - There remains a significant variance in breeding costs within the industry, with high-quality pig enterprises continuing to expand their cost advantages [1] - Cash flow for these enterprises is expected to improve continuously, aiding in the repair of balance sheets and enhancing intrinsic value [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2021, the chemical and petrochemical industries have seen increased capital expenditures due to high prices of chemical products, initiating a new round of capacity expansion [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - From 2022 onwards, the release of new capacities, combined with a decline in crude oil prices, has led to a continuous drop in the prices of most chemical products [1] - Domestic companies have adopted a strategy of price competition to gain market share, resulting in an overall decline in profitability [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - As of 2024, most chemical product prices are stabilizing at the bottom, and corporate profitability remains under pressure [1] - With the introduction of subsequent growth stabilization plans, it is anticipated that some outdated capacities may be eliminated, leading to a marginal improvement in the overall supply-demand structure of the industry and an increase in product profitability [1]

证券研究报告 | 行业联合报告 2026 年 01 月 14 日 招商证券 | 总量的视野 电话会议纪要（20260111） 研究部/总量研究 【宏观】1 月降息预期打消；【策略】2026 开年产业趋势新变化；【固收】开 年债市急跌的原因及后续展望；【银行】存款到期规模与可能的流向；【非银】 16 连阳，看好券商保险；【地产】REITs：25 年回顾及 26 年展望；【资配】 A 股择时轮动模型年度复盘及展望；【基金评价】公开募集证券投资基金销售 费用解读；【ESG】12 月国内 ESG 动态跟踪 【宏观 张岸天】1 月降息预期打消 12 月美国非农数据细节冷热参差，尽管私营部门就业增速放缓，整体上失业率 回落和时薪增速反弹的数据组合基本打消了海外市场对美联储1 月降息的预期。 分行业来看，周期性行业多表现疲弱，同时政府部门就业增速转正，DOGE 减 员的滞后统计影响出现消退。制造业连续三个月减员，录得-0.8 万人（前值-0.2 万人）。建筑业减员 1.1 万人（前值 2.2 万人），移民政策变化致使供需双弱。 零售业减员 2.5 万人（前值-1.7 万人），运输仓储业减员-0.7 万人（前值-2.5 万人 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dazhu CNC has released a 2025 performance forecast that significantly exceeds market expectations, driven by the expansion of computing power PCB and technological upgrades, indicating strong growth potential in the PCB equipment industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Dazhu CNC is the global leader in PCB equipment, maintaining the top position among domestic PCB equipment manufacturers for 16 consecutive years [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 5.79 billion, 9.01 billion, and 12.88 billion for 2025-2027, with net profits of 830 million, 1.51 billion, and 2.16 billion respectively [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are projected to be 61.9, 34.1, and 23.8 for the same period [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The trend of expanding computing power PCB and technological upgrades in the downstream market is favorable for Dazhu CNC, reinforcing its core position, technological leadership, and high-end product upgrades in the PCB equipment industry [1] - The company is expected to enter a new phase of high-quality growth due to accelerated production of AI PCBs and the upgrade of high-end products [1] - The strong performance forecast and growth potential of new high-end products support a "strong buy" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongji Xuchuang is a global leader in optical modules, benefiting significantly from the surge in AI computing demand through deep partnerships with top North American clients [1] Group 1: Company Strengths - The company has significant advantages in technology, production capacity, and supply chain [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang's silicon photonics capabilities are outstanding, with investments in next-generation optical interconnect technologies such as NPO and OCS [1] - The company is expected to benefit long-term from investments in AI computing [1] Group 2: Product and Market Potential - The 1.6T product is set to ramp up production first, with material capacity adequately prepared, laying the foundation for a significant increase in high-speed optical module production by 2026 [1] - The company has established delivery capabilities through multi-dimensional barriers in capacity, technology, and materials, solidifying its leading position in the market [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The performance release potential for 2026 and 2027 is considerable, indicating strong future growth [1] - In the post-Moore's Law era, interconnects are equated with computing power, suggesting a promising long-term space for optical interconnects [1] - The company is transforming into a platform-type leader in optical interconnects, with an expected upward shift in valuation [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Budweiser APAC's profitability in the fourth quarter of last year was pressured by concentrated cost recognition and high base effects, but most negative impacts have been absorbed, and a demand turning point is yet to be confirmed [1] - The report states that the EBITDA forecasts for Budweiser APAC for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by approximately 5% [1] - The rating for Budweiser APAC is maintained at "Neutral," with a target price set at HKD 7.5 [1]

Group 1 - The event organized by China Merchants Securities aims to enhance national financial literacy and fulfill corporate social responsibility through immersive learning experiences for finance students [1][2] - Students visited the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Financial Expo Center to understand the development of China's capital market and its role in supporting state-owned enterprise reform and financing for technology innovation [1] - The immersive experience highlighted the integration of technology in finance, allowing students to grasp the logic behind technological advancements reshaping the financial industry [1] Group 2 - The visit to the Shenzhen Wanjindu Deep Run Building Securities Office included discussions on practical aspects of the securities industry, career challenges, and growth paths from employees in various positions [2] - Senior wealth advisors shared insights on the integration of financial technology and wealth management, as well as practical asset allocation strategies, providing students with a closer look at industry practices and trends [2] - This visit is part of China Merchants Securities' initiative to deepen the integration of industry and education, aiming to cultivate professionals with both theoretical knowledge and practical skills for the financial sector [2]